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1.
New Zealand has a history of continuous freedom from foot-and-mouth disease and relies on a two-tier system of surveillance to maintain this status. The first involves border control procedures and stringent importation standards, and the second is an exotic disease and pest response programme. As part of an economic evaluation comparing the exotic disease and pest response programme against a hypothetical lower grade “measured response programme” subjective judgements of the risks involved were required. Twenty-eight selected animal health professionals, predominantly veterinarians, were posted a questionnaire that used three techniques (single point estimates, three point estimates and elicitation methods) to determine the risk components in a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The two key variables were the probability of an outbreak in New Zealand, and the number of secondary properties to which the disease spread during the epidemic. A Delphi conference of ten selected participants then focused mainly on the two key variables, with a second round postal extension to this group for the first variable. The individual data sets were then analysed and combined using a stochastic simulation technique. The final mean probability of an outbreak was about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean numbers of farms to which disease would spread during an epidemic under the existing exotic disease and pest response programme, a measured response programme which allowed vaccination and a measured response programme which excluded vaccination were estimated to be 61, 478 and 2230 respectively. The policy implications arising from the quantification of these two key variables are that more expenditure on preparedness is justifiable and current resource planning is barely adequate. 相似文献
2.
Sanson RL 《New Zealand veterinary journal》1994,42(2):41-53
Foot-and-mouth disease is an acute, highly communicable disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, both domesticated and wild. It may well be the most contagious disease known in the animal kingdom. The key features that contribute to this include its ability to gain entry and initiate infection through a variety of sites, the small infective dose, the short incubation period, the release of virus before the onset of clinical signs, the massive quantities of virus excreted from infected animals, its ability to spread large distances due to airborne dispersal, and the persistence of the virus in the environment. These features, plus the ability of the virus to be disseminated through the movements of animals, animal products, people, and plant and equipment makes the disease very difficult to control. New Zealand has never experienced a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic, and the economic consequences of an outbreak would be disastrous, due to the eradication costs, the loss of productivity and the impact on the export of animals and animal products. The smuggling of meat products, embryos or semen into the country are perceived as the most likely ways in which the disease could be introduced. The New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries therefore operates a two-tier system of defense against foot-and-mouth disease. The first tier involves border protection through stringent import controls to prevent the entry of infectious material. If this barrier is breached, an emergency response programme is activated, involving a stamping-out eradication strategy. This paper attempts to draw on overseas historical outbreak experiences and research findings to gain insights into the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease as it would relate to New Zealand. 相似文献
3.
口蹄疫是由口蹄疫病毒引起的偶蹄动物的一种急性、热性、高度接触性一类传染病,具有发病急、蔓延快、传播广、危害大等特点。我国对本病采取了100%注射疫苗强制免疫的措施,有效地控制了本病的发生及蔓延。然而在注苗免疫过程中,因个体差异等原因,个别家畜往往出现不同程度的过敏反应,有时因救治不及时或治疗方法不当造成死亡,给养殖户带来一定的经济损失,也影响了防疫工作的有效推进。文章通过一例牛口蹄疫免疫过敏病例的救治,介绍了牛在接种口蹄疫疫苗后可能出现的应激反应,并提出了解救措施,为及时、有效处理口蹄疫疫苗应激反应提供参考。 相似文献
4.
LJ GLEESON P. CHAMNANPOOD† S. CHEUNPRASERT‡ N. SRIMASARTITKOL‡ A. TRISASAROM§ 《Australian veterinary journal》1995,72(1):21-24
SUMMARY An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease that spread between two related vaccinated dairy herds was investigated. Although the cattle were of similar vaccination status, in one herd there was high morbidity, whereas in the other there was considerably lower morbidity. The relationship between the vaccine virus and the outbreak virus was expressed as an r value determined by the two-dimensional neutralisation test. Bovine serum homologous to the vaccine virus indicated a close antigenic relationship between the vaccine virus and the outbreak virus (r = 0.61). The source of the outbreak virus was not determined. The investigation suggested a requirement for close contact between stock for foot-and-mouth disease to spread in a tropical environment, in contrast to the capacity of the disease to spread considerable distances by aerosol transmission in temperate climates. 相似文献
5.
Pharo HJ 《New Zealand veterinary journal》2002,50(2):46-55
Although New Zealand has never had a case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), the threat that this disease poses to the economy of this country has long been recognised. The unprecedented global spread of FMD caused by the type-O PanAsia strain, culminating in the outbreak that occurred in the United Kingdom in early 2001, has refocussed the concerns of biosecurity agencies worldwide. The 3 lines of defence against exotic disease incursions in this country are border controls, surveillance and incursion response capability. This article reviews the pathogenesis, virus survival, routes of infection and methods of spread of FMD virus, and in the light of recent international developments, presents a summary of the major risks of introduction and dissemination of FMD virus and the risk-management measures in place for this country. 相似文献
6.
Preparedness for an incursion of an exotic animal disease is of key importance to government, industry, producers and the Australian community. An important aspect of Australia's preparedness for a possible incursion of foot-and-mouth disease is investigation into the likely effectiveness and cost-efficiency of eradication strategies when applied to different regional outbreak scenarios. Disease modelling is a tool that can be used to study diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease to better understand potential disease spread and control under different conditions. The Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry has been involved with epidemiologic simulation modelling for more than 10 years, and has developed a sophisticated spatial model for foot-and-mouth disease (AusSpread) that operates within a geographic information system framework. The model accommodates real farm boundary or point-location data, as well as synthesised data based on agricultural census and land use information. The model also allows for interactions between herds or flocks of different animal species and production type, and considers the role that such interactions are likely to play in the epidemiology of a regional outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The user can choose mitigations and eradication strategies from those that are currently described in Australia's veterinary emergency plan. The model also allows the user to evaluate the impact of constraints on the availability of resources for mitigations or eradication measures. Outputs include a range of maps and tabulated outbreak statistics describing the geographic extent of the outbreak and its duration, the numbers of affected, slaughtered, and, as relevant, vaccinated herds or flocks, and the cost of control and eradication. Cost-related outputs are based on budgets of the value of stock and the cost of mitigations, each of which can be varied by the user. These outputs are a valuable resource to assist with policy development and disease management. 相似文献
7.
The epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Saskatchewan, Canada, 1951-1952. 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0 
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下载免费PDF全文 The epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Saskatchewan in 1951 and 1952 was studied in order to determine origins of outbreaks and methods of spread. The epidemic was initially considered to be vesicular stomatitis and foot-and-mouth disease was not recognized until February 1952, three months after the initial infection. The reports prepared at that time were reviewed in order to obtain details of the numbers of animals infected and the source and date of infection for the outbreaks. Methods of spread were rated according to their likelihood. The introduction of infection by an immigrant through his clothes as well as by sausage was possible. The sequence of events from the first outbreak to the spread from a feedlot/packing plant and from a dairy farm, which failed to report the disease, were clarified. Methods of spread included movement of animals, animal products and people and the airborne route. Milk delivery and artificial insemination did not result in spread of infection. The quarantine of affected farms reduced spread by animals and deterred visits by people. The original diagnosis of vesicular stomatitis was due to misinterpretation of a lesion in an inoculated horse. Laboratory tests established the presence of foot-and-mouth disease. The limited extent of the epidemic, despite the delay in diagnosis, is attributed to (i) the low density of cattle, (ii) few infected pigs and hence less airborne virus and (iii) absence of waste food feeding and milk collection in addition to the limited quarantine imposed. 相似文献
8.
SUMMARY: Recent international initiatives for disease control suggest that, in the future, the consequences for trade of an exotic disease outbreak may not be as severe as estimated in the past. If zoning were to be accepted by Australia's trading partners, then the major effects may be felt at the regional rather than the national level. A study, using an integrated epidemiological/economic model, was undertaken to compare the impacts of 3 important exotic diseases (foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever and sheep pox) in 3 different regions of Australia. The study demonstrated that there are significant differences between the size and effect of different disease outbreaks. Regional factors influence not only the way that the disease will spread and manifest itself, but also the effects on local communities. Foot-and-mouth disease caused more economic losses than sheep pox or classical swine fever. The major determinant of differences in the effects of the diseases between regions was the nature of the regional economies. The less diversified the economy, the greater the effect of an exotic disease outbreak in relation to the size of that economy. 相似文献
9.
During a recent foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina, cattle herds affected in 2001 were located mainly (69%) in Buenos Aires province. The densities of outbreaks (no. of outbreaks per km2) and cattle-demographic variables in the province were estimated using a geographical information system and kernel function. Before the epidemic officially was recognized, the density of outbreaks was correlated (rsp = 0.28–0.47) with the geographic distribution of small (≤100 cattle), dairy and fattening herds. During the mass-vaccination campaign to control the epidemic (April–July), the density of outbreaks was most strongly correlated (rsp = 0.20–0.25) with the distribution of large (>500 cattle) and breeding herds. After the end of the mass-vaccination campaign, large herds and number of cows were most strongly correlated (rsp = 0.16–0.26) with outbreak density. These relationships might indicate that: (1) the disease spread more rapidly or was more easily detected in intensive production systems at the beginning of the epidemic; (2) vaccination and other control methods applied were less effective in large, semi-intensive production systems; (3) incomplete vaccine protection was responsible for herd outbreaks that occurred after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACT: For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US). If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics), epidemics infecting 3 000 to 30 000 animals (medium epidemics), and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls. 相似文献
11.
A total of 2126 herds, an attack rate of 0.82 per cent, were affected during an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Argentina in 2001. The spatial and temporal distribution of the epidemic was investigated using nearest-neighbour and spatial scan tests and by estimating the frequency distributions of the times to intervention, and distances and times between outbreaks. The outbreaks were clustered and associated significantly (P<0.01) with herd density; 94 per cent were located in the Pampeana region, where the cattle population is concentrated, which had an attack rate of 1.4 per cent. The clustering results suggested that the virus had spread locally between outbreaks. Most of the outbreaks were separated by one day and the maximum distance between outbreaks was almost 2000 km, indicating that the infection spread rapidly over large distances. The index outbreak was detected more than 15 days after the primary outbreak, and restrictions on the movement of cattle were probably not enforced until about one month after infection occurred. As in other major epidemics, the period between the first outbreaks and the effective application of control strategies was probably crucial in determining the progress of the epidemic. 相似文献
12.
Epidemiological characteristics and financial costs of the 1997 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Taiwan 总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24
Between March and July 1997, a devastating outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, occurred in pigs in Taiwan. A total of 6,147 pig farms with more than 4 million pigs were infected, and 37.7 per cent of the pigs in Taiwan either died (0.18 million pigs) or were killed (3.85 million pigs). The epidemic reached its peak during the fifth week after it was first recognised. During the eighth and ninth weeks, a two-dose blanket vaccination programme was instituted which led to a large reduction in new outbreaks. Except for two cities, the whole of Taiwan was declared an FMD-infected zone. During the four months in which new farm outbreaks occurred, 21.7 per cent of the pigs on infected farms showed clinical signs, and there was an overall mortality of 3.95 per cent. During the early stages of the epidemic, the incubation period was as short as 24 hours and the case fatality rates for suckling piglets reached 100 per cent. The financial cost of the epidemic was estimated at US$ 378.6 million, including indemnities, vaccines, carcase disposal plus environmental protection, miscellaneous expenses, and loss of market value. Owing to the ban on exports of pork to Japan, it is estimated that the total economic cost to Taiwan's pig industry will be about US$ 1.6 billion. 相似文献
13.
Transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) by aerosol spread can occur over considerable distances. However, this is less effective in hot, dry environmental conditions, and a detailed study of an outbreak within a large dairy herd in Saudi Arabia has shown that contact spread is the main mode of transmission within a herd: both physical and spatial barriers curtailed the course of disease across the farm. Hence, the speed and path of an outbreak can be altered by changing the positioning of spatial or physical barriers. Extending the distances between pens, increasing the number of farm pens, decreasing the number of animals within the pens, and placing pens of well-protected stock between those of susceptible stock, can all contribute to the control of FMD involving contact and short-distance aerosol spread. Such management techniques offer a cost-effective supplement to control by vaccination. 相似文献
14.
T Ogawa S Fujisono 《The Journal of veterinary medical science / the Japanese Society of Veterinary Science》1992,54(5):923-929
From the end of September to November 1988, a compact scale of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) outbreaks occurred suddenly in Tanegashima island of Kagoshima Prefecture, southern part of Kyusyu island of Japan. The BEF outbreak pattern showed epidemical characteristics as follows; (1) outbreak spread from few foci to zone during one month, and (2) the disease might be transmitted in farms with a fixed probability of adequate contact. By using the above aspects, we attempted to analyze the disease theoretically with the application of Poisson distribution and Reed-Frost model. The BEF incidence in farms was in well accord with the Poisson distribution. As the very rare event occurred in unit time or in unit area in this epidemic, the cattle population at risk were equivalently susceptible to BEF virus in this island, due to the influence of no vaccination to BEF control before the first outbreak. Similarly, the epidemic curve of the Reed-Frost model was proved to fit well the incidence observed in a farm, and the probability of adequate contact was induced as p = 0.226. If the cattle population is less than 5 in this farm, the outbreak would not occur in the first instance. 相似文献
15.
16.
Gerbier G Bacro JN Pouillot R Durand B Moutou F Chadoeuf J 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2002,56(1):33-49
The spatial spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is influenced by several sources of spatial heterogeneity: heterogeneity of the exposure to the virus, heterogeneity of the animal density and heterogeneity of the networks formed by the contacts between farms. A discrete space model assuming that farms can be reduced to points is proposed to handle these different factors. The farm-to-farm process of transmission of the infection is studied using point-pattern methodology. Farm management, commercial exchanges, possible airborne transmission, etc. cannot be explicitly taken into account because of lack of data. These latter factors are introduced via surrogate variables such as herd size and distance between farms. The model is built on the calculation of an infectious potential for each farm.This method has been applied to the study of the 1967-1968 FMD epidemic in UK and allowed us to evaluate the spatial variation of the probability of infection during this epidemic. Maximum likelihood estimation has been conducted conditional on the absence of data concerning the farms which were not infected during the epidemic. Model parameters have then been tested using an approximated conditional-likelihood ratio test. In this case study, results and validation are limited by the lack of data, but this model can easily be extended to include other information such as the effect of wind direction and velocity on airborne spread of the virus or the complex interactions between the locations of farms and the herd size. It can also be applied to other diseases where point approximation is convenient. In the context of an increase of animal density in some areas, the model explicitly incorporates the density and known epidemiological characteristics (e.g. incubation period) in the calculation of the probability of FMD infection. Control measures such as vaccination or slaughter can be simply introduced, respectively, as a reduction of the susceptible population or as a reduction of the source of infection. 相似文献
17.
Whilst the UK 2001 FMD (foot-and-mouth disease) outbreak provides an extremely rich source of spatio-temporal epidemic data, it is not clear how the models and parameters from the UK can be translated to other scenarios. Here we consider how the model framework used to capture the UK epidemic can be applied to a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark. Whilst pigs played a relatively minor role in the UK epidemic (being the infected animal on just 18 farms), they dominate the Danish livestock landscape. In addition, it is not clear whether transmission parameters from the UK will transfer to Denmark where farming practices may be significantly different. We therefore explore a large volume of high-dimensional parameter space, but seek to relate final epidemic size, risk of spread to Danish islands and potential success of control measures, to early indicators of epidemic dynamics. The results of this extensive modelling exercise therefore allow us to provide timely advice on control options based on the observed behaviours of the first few generations. 相似文献
18.
Yi-Suk Joo Soo-hwan An Ok-Kyung Kim Juan Lubroth Jung-Hyang Sur 《Canadian journal of veterinary research》2002,66(2):122-124
On March 20, 2000, a suspected vesicular disease in cattle was reported to the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service (NVRQS) of the Republic of Korea. This represented the index case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, which spread through several provinces. The Republic of Korea had been free of FMD for 66 years prior to the reintroduction of the virus and had recently suspended imports of pork and pork products from neighboring Japan owing to a reported FMD outbreak in that country. The Korean outbreak was ultimately controlled through the combination of preemptive slaughter, animal movement restrictions, and a strategy of ring vaccination. The purpose of this paper is to review the current FMD situation in Korea in the aftermath of its 2000 epizootic and how it may affect future efforts to eradicate or reduce risk of reintroduction of the disease into Korea. 相似文献
19.
Jalvingh AW Nielen M Maurice H Stegeman AJ Elbers AR Dijkhuizen AA 《Preventive veterinary medicine》1999,42(3-4):271-295
The simulation model InterCSF was developed to simulate the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–98 as closely as possible. InterCSF is a spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model. The outcomes of the various replications give an estimate of the variation in size and duration of possible CSF-epidemics. InterCSF simulates disease spread from an infected farm to other farms through three contact types (animals, vehicles, persons) and through local spread up to a specified distance. The main disease-control mechanisms that influence the disease spread in InterCSF are diagnosis of the infected farms, depopulation of infected farms, movement-control areas, tracing, and pre-emptive slaughter. InterCSF was developed using InterSpread as the basis. InterSpread was developed for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This paper describes the process of modifying InterSpread into InterCSF. This involved changing the assumptions and mechanisms for disease spread from FMD to CSF. In addition, CSF-specific control measures based on the standard European Union (EU) regulations were included, as well as additional control measures that were applied during the Dutch epidemic. To adapt InterCSF as closely as possible to the Dutch 1997/98 epidemic, data from the real epidemic were analysed. Both disease spread and disease-control parameters were thus specifically based on the real epidemic. In general, InterSpread turned out to be a flexible tool that could be adapted to simulate another disease with relative ease. The most difficult were the modifications necessary to mimic the real epidemic as closely as possible. The model was well able to simulate an epidemic with a similar pattern over time for number of detected farms as the real outbreak; but the absolute numbers were (despite many relevant modifications) not exactly the same — but were within an acceptable range. Furthermore, the development of InterCSF provided the researchers with a better insight into the existing knowledge gaps. In part II (see the final paper in this issue), InterCSF was used to compare various control strategies as applied to this epidemic. 相似文献
20.
A decision support system for managing a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic is being developed at Massey University on behalf of the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries. The system will comprise a variety of computer technologies, including a database management system, a geographic information system, a spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease and a number of expert systems. 相似文献