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受资源、气候等诸多因素影响,中国粮食生产面临较强的约束性和不确定性;受经济增长、城市化和居民收入提高等影响,粮食需求呈现较强的刚性,中国粮食经济进入新的阶段。对中国粮食安全的可选模式进行分析,并提出了保证中国粮食安全的战略构想。研究认为,中国粮食安全可选择的模式有直接进口、对外投资种粮进口、援助其他粮食净进口国发展粮食生产以及建立国际"粮食协定",同时认为,中国粮食安全战略要实现从粮食安全到口粮安全、从粮食安全到食品多样化两个转变;因此,在保证口粮基本自给的同时,应适当扩大饲料粮进口,小麦和大米自给率分别维持在95%,玉米自给率可适当放宽到90%。 相似文献
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在阐述储备规模确定不一致的原因的基础上,剖析了我国城乡居民口粮需求状况与粮食生产状况及趋势,采用平稳趋势分析法对粮食生产进行预测,得到我国发生粮食危机时所需的粮食储备绝对安全规模,以及常规状态下的可接受波动范围。 相似文献
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流向统计法分析中国粮食安全状况及高标准农田需求预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
加强高标准农田建设,提升国家粮食安全保障能力已经成为国家战略。为预测2020—2030年高标准农田需求量,本研究基于中国国家统计局、海关总署等相关数据,利用流向统计法从粮食、谷物和口粮自给率3个角度分析了中国粮食安全现状,并建立了预测模型,对2020、2025和2030年中国粮食、谷物和口粮的需求量进行预测;基于各省级行政区可建高标准农田面积、农业用水量、单位面积高标准农田粮食产能提高量和复种指数,预测了2020、2025和2030年保障我国粮食安全需建高标准农田面积。结果表明:1)近年来中国粮食、谷物和口粮产量呈增长趋势;1997—2018年粮食、谷物和口粮的自给率分别在86.24%～118.15%、88.67%～121.67%、84.25%～123.98%,2006年以来中国守住了"谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全"的战略底线,但距《国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要》中粮食自给率95%以上的要求仍存在差距,需进一步提升国家粮食安全保障能力,增建高标准农田是保障粮食安全的重要战略;2)根据建立的模型预测2020、2025和2030年粮食需求量分别为72 318、72 673和72 724万t,谷物需求量分别为67 898、68 251和68 301万t,口粮需求量分别为32 811、33 863和34 914万t;统计检验及验证表明预测结果可信;3)2018年已建成的高标准农田已能满足我国90%的粮食自给率需求;95%自给率粮食安全条件下2020、2025和2030年分别需求6 844、7 125和7 165万hm2(10.27、10.69和10.75亿亩)的高标准农田。预测值与《乡村振兴战略规划(2018—2022年)》提出的到2022年建成10亿亩(6 667万hm2)高标准农田的指标接近,该研究结果支撑了规划指标的科学性,亦可为未来10年我国高标准农田建设数量及进度控制提供参考,研究为宏观预测粮食及耕地需求提供了一种方法。 相似文献
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我国粮食消费需求的总量增长平稳,口粮消费稳中有减,饲料粮和工业用粮增长;对稻谷和小麦的需求稳中略降,对玉米、大豆和杂粮的需求呈现规模和比重双增的态势。未来城乡居民人均口粮需求不断减少,饲料粮将会继续成为我国粮食需求增长的主体,工业用粮的需求仍将迅速扩张。预测表明,到2010年和2020年,我国粮食需求总量将分别达到53092万t和56500万t。 相似文献
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基于灰色关联分析的河南省粮食安全影响因素双层诊断 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
《河南农业大学学报》2015,(3)
建立了双层粮食安全影响因素集,提出了粮食安全性量化表达指标——粮食安全综合系数,并基于灰色关联分析模型对河南省粮食安全影响因素进行了双层诊断。结果表明:第一层影响因素诊断中,对粮食安全影响最大的是粮食供给;第二层影响因素诊断中,对粮食供给影响最大的是农业生产资料投入量,对粮食需求影响最大的是人的口粮消费量,对粮食市场流通影响最大的是农业生产资料价格指数。 相似文献
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从城乡居民收入提高和膳食结构改变、城镇居民人口数量的增加、生物质能源新兴工业发展等3个方面分析工业化对粮食消费的影响。工业化进程中的经济增长促使城乡居民收入提高,改变居民膳食结构;工业化导致农村城镇化,引起城镇居民人口数量;工业发展引起的生物质能源的粮食需求,这些都大大提高了粮食消费需求,威胁粮食安全。为此,提出了保障工业化进程中粮食消费需求的对策建议:强化观念,充分认识工业化快速发展过程中粮食安全问题的重要性;控制人口增长,提高粮食转化率;加强节粮建设,倡导适度消费;多渠道发展非粮生物质能源,保障粮食安全。 相似文献
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我国粮食安全形势总体良好,但区域性矛盾问题不容忽视,优化粮食安全区域布局有利于增强粮食安全风险防范能力。文章从粮食用途角度,估算2013—2018年31省市的粮食需求量,将粮食产需划分为6个不同等级,分析我国粮食产需平衡的时空演变规律,测算了空间自相关性。结果显示：1）2013—2018年,我国粮食高产区增产而低产区减产,粮食生产重心向高产区集中,粮食生产的省域差距持续增加。2）口粮和饲料用粮是粮食总需求结构中重要的两个部分;间接用粮和粮食总需求量变动呈现“北减南增”、“东减西增”的空间变动。3）山东、四川和辽宁虽为粮食主产区,但也表现为高缺粮。有充足的粮食可输出的省份为黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、河南、安徽、新疆和甘肃。2013—2018年,多数省市内的粮食产需不平衡现象得到了改善,省级层面粮食安全水平提高。4）我国粮食产需呈现空间正相关,具有集聚状态,且口粮需产差的空间集聚性更强、更稳定。高余粮区集中在黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆等偏北区域,而高缺粮区集中在东南沿海。基于上述分析,文章得出平衡好口粮需求和间接粮食需求之间、粮食输入地和输出地之间的关系;完善粮食流通体系,加强粮食供应链管理的启示。 相似文献
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针对当前中国粮食安全形势和未来发展趋势,提出中国粮食安全的观念、制度与技术创新思路。在粮食安全观念创新上,要树立“大粮食”观念,逐步实现粮食的数量安全、经济安全和营养安全三级目标,确保粮食增产与增收同步,并重点保障口粮安全,开放非口粮市场。在粮食安全的制度创新上,要推进土地股份合作制,强化耕地评审管理制度,建立和健全粮食安全监测预警体系、粮食市场购销体系、农产品质量标准体系,强化粮食产购中的调控与管理力度。在粮食安全的技术创新上,着重调整粮食产销的区域布局,推行多熟超高产生产技术,构建“大粮食”生产结构。 相似文献
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Global food supply. Linking policy on climate and food 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Godfray HC Pretty J Thomas SM Warham EJ Beddington JR 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2011,331(6020):1013-1014
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Carmen Diana Deere 《Agriculture and Human Values》1993,10(3):35-51
Cuba's National Food Program aims to assure its population a minimum degree of food security during the current period of transition from dependency upon the ex-Socialist trading bloc. A number of important elements of the Food Program, however, were conceived before the demise of COMECON in an effort to deepen food import substitution. This paper reviews the degree of Cuba's food import dependence before the breakup of the Socialist bloc, the initial targets of the National Food Program, and how these have been modified due to the severe reduction in Cuba's normal level of imports of petroleum and other agricultural inputs. It is argued that Cuba's reliance upon scientific advances combined with a return to traditional, ecologically-benign agricultural practices and large-scale labor mobilizations have allowed it to overcome a drastic shortfall in production as a result of the reduced level of imports of modern agricultural inputs. At the same time, it has been exceedingly difficult for the country to maintain production levels at the trend of the late 1980s or to continue to aspire to meet the ambitious targets of the initial Food Program plan.Carmen Diana Deere is Professor of Economics and Director of Latin American Studies at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. The author has been carrying out field research in Cuba since the mid 1980s, in recent years, in a collaborative study with colleagues at the University of Havana. She is grateful to Carollee Bengelsdorf, Ernel Gonzales, Cristobal Kay, Mieke Meurs, Lupo Nuñez, Niurka Pérez, Brian Pollitt, and José Luís Rodríguez for their comments on earlier drafts. This article is an updated and condensed version of Institute of Social Studies Working Paper Series #124 (The Hague, 1992). 相似文献
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Animals respond for food in the presence of free food 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A J Neuringer 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》1969,166(903):399-401
Pigeons pecked a response disk to gain access to grain rewards while identical grain was freely available from a cup within the experimental chamber. Similarly, rats pressed a lever for food pellets while free pellets were present. It is not necessary, therefore, to deprive an animal of food before it will engage in instrumental responding for food. Such responding can serve as its own motivation and reward. 相似文献
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《农业科学学报》2017,(12)
Air pollution negatively impacts food security. This paper reviews the current literature on the relationship between air pollution and food security from the perspective of food system. It highlights that agricultural emissions which substantially contribute to air pollution could happen at every stage along the food supply chain. Meanwhile, air pollution can not only affect plant growth and animal health but also shift market equilibrium of both agro-inputs and outputs in the food supply chain and thereby affect food security indirectly. Furthermore, this study evaluates the effects of agricultural policy and energy policy on food security and air pollution, respectively, and provides an overview of potential policy instruments to reduce air pollution while ensuring food security. Finally, we identify the remaining research and policy issues for further studies, mainly focusing on the study of household's bounded rational behaviors and the issue of rural aging population. 相似文献
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Phil Mount 《Agriculture and Human Values》2012,29(1):107-121
“Scaling-up” is the next hurdle facing the local food movement. In order to effect broader systemic impacts, local food systems
(LFS) will have to grow, and engage either more or larger consumers and producers. Encouraging the involvement of mid-sized
farms looks to be an elegant solution, by broadening the accessibility of local food while providing alternative revenue streams
for troubled family farms. Logistical, structural and regulatory barriers to increased scale in LFS are well known. Less is
understood about the way in which scale developments affect the perception and legitimacy of LFS. This value-added opportunity
begs the question: Is the value that adheres to local food scalable? Many familiar with local food discourse might suggest
that important pieces of added value within LFS are generated by the reconnection of producer and consumer, the direct exchange
through which this occurs, and the shared goals and values that provide the basis for reconnection. However, these assertions
are based on tenuous assumptions about how interactions within the direct exchange produce value, and how LFS are governed.
Examination shows that existing assumptions do not properly acknowledge the hybridity, diversity, and flexibility inherent
in LFS. A clear analysis of the potential of scale in LFS will depend on understanding both how value is determined within
LFS, and the processes through which these systems are governed. Such an analysis shows that, while scaled-up LFS will be
challenged to maintain legitimacy and an identity as “alternative”, the establishment of an open governance process—based
on a “negotiation of accommodations”—is likely to enhance their viability. 相似文献