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1.
The aim of the AIR-CLIM project is to perform an integrated analysis of the linkages between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe and to produce results that are relevant to European policy-making. Key elements of the analysis are on the impact side the exceedances of critical thresholds for air pollution and global change and on the cost side the estimates of costs to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. The integrated modeling framework set up to meet these objectives consists of two state-of-the-art integrated models covering regional air pollution in Europe (RAINS) and global climate change (IMAGE), supplemented by new components. Based on a preliminary analysis it can be stated that climate change will make European vegetation in most regions less sensitive to acid deposition. Taking into account the emission trends the impacts of regional air pollution will decrease while the impacts of climate change increase. Different problems will be important in different regions: regional air pollution in Central and northern Europe, and climate change in southern Europe.  相似文献   

2.
Many options are available for reducing the impact of agriculture on climate; however, it is difficult to provide a comprehensive set of solutions because several aspects are still poorly understood. An overall assessment of the various impacts of agriculture on climate is presented. It focuses on the trade-offs among the relevant greenhouse gases (GHG), CO2, N2O and CH4, and the geochemical and biophysical interactions between agriculture and climate.Three spatial scales are examined: field, farm, and regional scale. At the field level, both GHG and energy fluxes are related to technical decisions by the farmer. At the farm level, strategic decisions on the choice of production systems are governed by economical constraints. Land use and landscape govern the biophysical factors that act on the regional climate when spatially integrated. At the regional level, national and regional policies on GHG emissions and surface forcing influence global climate. The biochemical and geophysical contribution of agriculture to climate need to be considered using new approaches in terms of global warming. The use of GCMs appears to be an adequate tool at this scale for assessing the global effect on climate, upon which smaller-scale effects will be superimposed.  相似文献   

3.
区域尺度作物生产力对全球变化响应的研究进展及展望   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2  
王宗明  张柏 《中国农业气象》2005,26(2):112-115,118
作物生产力对气候变化高度敏感,因而成为全球气候变化科学研究中的焦点问题之一。开发作物生产力的区域模型,与区域气候模式相耦合,有利于对作物生产力形成过程中的时间和空间变量进行分析,为针对各地不同的气候、土壤、作物与耕作管理条件制定适应性对策奠定基础。本文综述了作物生产力对CO2 增加和气候变化响应的研究方法,指出应用遥感、地理信息技术与作物模拟技术、高分辨率的区域气候变化模式相结合,研究区域尺度上的作物生产力及其气候变化响应是未来研究的热点和发展方向  相似文献   

4.
Johansson  M.  Alveteg  M.  Amann  M.  Bak  J.  Bartnicki  J.  Ekqvist  M.  Forsius  M.  Frohn  L.  Geernaert  G.  Gimeno  B.  Guardans  R.  Karvosenoja  N.  Martín  F.  Posch  M.  Suutari  R.  Syri  S. 《Water, air, and soil pollution》2001,130(1-4):175-186
The integrated assessment modeling on acid rain has incorporated several related effects and pollutants into a multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach, resulting in complex integrated models and policy assessments. The development and implementation of effects-oriented cost-effective emission reduction strategies in Europe are based on integrated assessment models. The project on national integrated assessment modeling in Finland, Denmark, Spain and Sweden aimed to support the national evaluation of European emission reduction strategies. The tasks covered the comparison of inventories and projections for emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile organic compounds, assessment of control techniques and related costs, concentration and deposition scenarios to estimate environmental effects of acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone and their temporal aspects, uncertainty analyses on both individual modules and whole integrated models, and dissemination of results to stakeholders. The integrated assessment modeling provided a consistent framework for the harmonization of input data and in-depth scientific research tasks on emissions, pollutant loading and impacts including comprehensive uncertainty analyses, and facilitated the dissemination of knowledge to policy-makers.  相似文献   

5.
This study estimates the implications of projected seasonal variations in rainfall quantities caused by climate change for water erosion rates by means of a modeling case study on sugar beet cultivation in the Central European region of Upper-Austria. A modified version of the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney erosion model was used to assess soil losses in one conventional and three conservation tillage systems. The model was employed to a climatic reference scenario (1960–89) and a climate change scenario (2070–99). Data on precipitation changes for the 2070–99 scenario were based on the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario as simulated by the regional climate model HadRM3H. Weather data in daily time-steps, for both scenarios, were generated by the stochastic weather generator LARS WG 3.0. The HadRM3H climate change simulation did not show any significant differences in annual precipitation totals, but strong seasonal shifts of rainfall amounts between 10 and 14% were apparent. This intra-annual precipitation change resulted in a net-decrease of rainfall amounts in erosion sensitive months and an overall increase of rainfall in a period, in which the considered agricultural area proved to be less prone to erosion. The predicted annual average soil losses under climate change declined in all tillage systems by 11 to 24%, which is inside the margins of uncertainty typically attached to climate change impact studies. Annual soil erosion rates in the conventional tillage system exceeded 10 t ha− 1 a− 1 in both climate scenarios. Compared to these unsustainably high soil losses the conservation tillage systems show reduced soil erosion rates by between 49 and 87%. The study highlights the importance of seasonal changes in climatic parameters for the discussion about the impacts of global climate change on future soil erosion rates in Central Europe. The results also indicate the high potential of adaptive land-use management for climate change response strategies in the agricultural sector.  相似文献   

6.
As in all parts of the globe, rapid climate change in Australia will have significant negative impacts on biodiversity. It also will interact with pre-existing stressors such as native vegetation clearing, altered natural disturbance regimes and invasive species - all of which already have major negative effects on biota in Australia. Strategies to reduce climate change impacts on Australian biodiversity include a mixture of mitigation and adaptation actions (sensuMillar et al., 2007) such as: (1) significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, (2) ensuring bio-diverse carbon capture, (3) better tackling pre-existing stressors on biodiversity, (4) better preparing for the effects of major natural disturbances, (5) significantly improving off-reserve conservation efforts including fostering appropriate connectivity, and (6) enhancing the existing reserve system by making it more comprehensive, adequate and representative. The first strategy above demands a global response otherwise major mitigation attempts in Australia that are not paralleled elsewhere around the world will have little effect on climate change and, in turn, contribute little to enhanced biodiversity conservation. Strategies 2-6 demand multi-scaled responses, particularly at a regional level, given the major regional differences in direct climate change impacts and their interactions with pre-existing regional stressors. Well developed multi-scaled conservation plans to implement these strategies currently do not exist, nor do appropriate institutional arrangements and capacities. Institutional reforms are urgently needed in Australia to develop the land management, monitoring and regional response capabilities required to conserve biodiversity on a continent already significantly modified.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents an explorative, quantitative analysis of acidification and eutrophication of natural terrestrial ecosystems caused by excess sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition. The analysis is based on a steady-state approach, involving the comparison of deposition fluxes with critical loads to identify areas where critical loads are exceeded. Deposition fields for sulfur and nitrogen were obtained from the STOCHEM global chemistry-transport model, and they were combined with estimated base cation deposition to derive net acid deposition fluxes. The results indicate that the critical loads for acidification are exceeded in 7–17% of the global area of natural ecosystems. In addition, comparison of nitrogen deposition with critical loads for eutrophication yielded an exceedance in 7–18% of the global natural ecosystems. Apart from serious problems in the heavily industrialized regions of eastern USA, Europe, the former Soviet Union, and large parts of Asia, risks are also found in parts of South America, and West, East and Southern Africa. Both acidification and eutrophication risks could significantly increase in Asia, Africa and South America in the near future, and decrease in North America and Western Europe. Accounting for the effects of N in the analysis of acidification significantly enlarges the potentially affected areas and moves them away from highly industrialized areas compared to studies considering S deposition alone. Major uncertainties in the approach followed are associated with upscaling, the estimates of S, N and base cation emission and deposition fluxes, the critical loads to describe ecosystem vulnerability and the treatment of soil N immobilization and denitrification.  相似文献   

8.
To examine the sensitivity of environmental systems to climatic variability and change, integrated model systems for climate impact assessment are being developed for New Zealand (CLIMPACTS) and Bangladesh (BDCLIM). Features common to both model systems include a global climate model, regional modules for generating climate scenarios, and models for biophysical impact analyses. For CLIMPACTS, modified ecosystem models for horticultural crops, arable crops, and pasture production are being incorporated. For BDCLIM, the emphasis is on analysis ofpossible changes in agroclimatic zones and hydrology, including the risks of floods and droughts. The initial emphasis of both systems is on nationwide spatial analyses, using simplified models as much as possible. The development of integrated model systems supports the needs of the respective countries in assessing scientific uncertainties, evaluating vulnerabilities, and identifying adaptation options as a basis for international reporting requirements under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and for policy and planning at national and regional levels. The major advantage of such integrated model systems is that they can readily be updated as the science of climate change advances, thus providing an evolving tool for future reassessments of climate impacts.  相似文献   

9.
The following measurements were carried out to clarify acid deposition in Niigata Prefecture, an area facing to the Sea of Japan. 1) Acid deposition fluxes and sulfur isotopic ratios of atmospheric deposition were measured at 9 sites in the prefecture in 1999. 2) Atmospheric deposition was collected daily at one site in 1997, to measure the sulfur isotopic variations of sulfate together with the air mass trajectory for each deposition. It became clear that: (a) The major component that acidifies atmospheric deposition is sulfuric acid. (b) Sulfate deposition increases in winter in the whole study area. (c) The sulfur isotopic ratios indicate that sulfur dioxide emitted from China affects the whole study area in winter. (d) Winter deposition of sulfate estimated to derive from coal combustion in China account for half of nss-sulfate deposition in average at 9 sites.  相似文献   

10.
The extensive use of coal as an energy carrier in China has led to high deposition of sulfur in a large part of the country. In the southern part of China large areas receive acid deposition, while in the northern part of the country the acidity of the emissions is neutralized by alkaline dust from the desert areas. In this paper we demonstrate the importance of knowing the sources and deposition patterns of base cations when assessing the effects of changes in sulfur emissions. Regional-scale data of both sulfur and calcium deposition from modeling and monitoring are combined in order to demonstrate how the acidity of deposition in China has changed historically and may change in the future. The importance of base cation deposition is also demonstrated using the dynamic acidification model MAGIC with input data from an intensive monitoring site outside Guiyang. It is not known what fraction of the deposited base cations is of natural origin and anthropogenic origin, respectively. The relative source strength varies greatly between regions. Future effects of emission changes are highly dependent on the relative reduction in sulfur and base cation emissions.  相似文献   

11.
Acid deposition: Perspectives in time and space   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Most acid-deposition investigations have been concerned with the impact of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions on Europe and North America. This paper examines three issues beyond this central focus. Major conclusions are 1) ammonia (NH3) emissions and subsequent nitrogen (N) accumulation in terrestrial ecosystems have the potential to generate significant acidification in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; 2) sulfur (S) and N accumulation in environmental reservoirs will not only result in significant and extensive acidification but will also impact the earth's radiation balance, tropospheric oxidizing capacity, ecosystem nutrient balance and groundwater quality; and 3) future emissions will substantially increase in the developing world, especially in Asia. By 2020, Asian emissions of SO2, NOx and NH3 will be equal to or greater than the combined emissions from Europe and North America.  相似文献   

12.
基于土地利用变化的安徽省陆地碳排放时空特征及效应   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  
土地利用变化是区域碳排放变化的主要驱动力,揭示土地利用变化对碳排放影响对于碳排放政策的制定具有指导意义。然而,经济快速发展区域中土地利用变化对碳排放影响研究仍有限。以安徽省为对象,基于2000—2020年的土地利用变化数据,从碳源/汇角度评估了安徽省净碳排放,分析了碳排放时空特点,从碳足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字3个方面阐明了安徽省碳排放效应。结果表明:(1)从2000—2020年,安徽省土地利用净碳排放表现为增加趋势,年均增加503.92万t,林地是碳排放的主要碳汇,但其碳汇总量年际变化不大,建设用地是碳排放增加的主要碳源,其年均增加511.37万t;(2)2000—2020年,碳源变化主要分布在安徽省中北部平原地区,碳汇变化主要分布于西南高山和丘陵地区,且安徽中北部地区是碳排放强度随时间变化的最大热点区;(3)由碳源/碳汇变化引起的碳排放效应中,生态承载力2000—2020年变化不大,但碳足迹和生态赤字表现为增加趋势,年均增加率分别为6.2%和8.7%。因此,安徽省中北部平原地区为碳减排重点控制区域,降低建设用地及增加林地面积可有效调节该地区碳排放效应。  相似文献   

13.
Site-specific estimates for various environmentalstress factors were related with measured crowncondition data at a systematic 16 ×: 16 km2 gridover Europe, according to previously statedhypotheses, using a multiple regression approach,including interactions, and lagged effects of stressfactors. Methodological differences among countriesaccounted for >30% of the variation in defoliation.Nevertheless, crown condition was found to varynaturally with tree age, altitude, drought stress and,most likely, also pathogenic fungi and insects.Significant impacts of air pollution (specificallyozone but also NOx, SOx and acid deposition)were found at regional levels in parts of centralEurope, particularly for deciduous species. Impactsseemed less significant for conifers, especially forspruce, but this might be affected by confoundingeffects or strong correlations between (a harsh)climate and (low) atmospheric deposition in the areawhere spruce predominates. National studies indicatethat ozone and acid deposition can have a significanteffect on the defoliation of spruce as well. Weconclude that while forest condition varies naturally,continued emissions will contribute further to forestdecline in the long term.  相似文献   

14.
In contrast to Europe and North America, air pollution in Asia is increasing rapidly, resulting in both local air quality problems and higher acidic depositions. In 1989, an east-west group of scientists initiated a multi-institutional research project on Acid Rain and Emissions Reduction in Asia, funded for the past two years by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Phase I, covering 23 countries of Asia, focussed on the development of PC-based software called the Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation Model (RAINS-ASIA). A 94-region Regional Energy Scenario Generator was developed to create alternative energy/emission scenarios through the year 2020. A long-range atmospheric transport model was developed to calculate dispersion and deposition of sulfur, based upon emissions from area and large point sources, on a one-degree grid of Asia. The resulting impacts of acidic deposition on a variety of vegetation types were analyzed using the critical loads approach to test different emissions management strategies, including both energy conservation measures and sulfur abatement technologies.  相似文献   

15.
土地利用/土地覆被变化环境效应研究   总被引：16，自引：2，他引：16  
土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）是全球变化研究的重要方向之一。土地利用/土地覆被变化的环境效应问题一向都是研究的重点。结合近年来土地利用/土地覆被变化在环境方面的一些研究进展,综述了土地利用/土地覆被变化对全球气候、大气质量以及区域土壤、水文和生物多样性的影响,并提出了黄土高原地区土地利用/土地覆被变化研究亟需解决的一些问题。  相似文献   

16.
In order to contribute to the analysis and solution of regional scale environmental problems in East Asia, we developed a tool for the comprehensive assessment of alternative policy options to improve air quality. This tool projects the future regional energy supply, calculates the emission levels of sulfur dioxide and estimates the geographical pattern of sulfur deposition resulting from emissions. Sulfur deposition in Japan through 2030 was forecasted for various energy supply and emission control scenarios using the analysis tool. Future sulfur depositions were calculated from the source-receptor matrix for 1995 and the growth rate of emission for the source subregion. In the case of the current legislation scenario, anthropogenic SO2 emissions in East Asia would grow by 34 percent and sulfur deposition in Japan would increase by approximately 20 percent between 1995 and 2030. This increase in sulfur deposition over these 35 years is sligthly less than the contribution from volcanic emission to sulfur deposition in Japan. In the case of the hypothetical dirty scenario for China, sulfur deposition in several grids which face the Sea of Japan would double by 2030.  相似文献   

17.
Vegetation burning in tropical countries is a threat to the environment, causing not only local ecological, economic and social impacts, but also large-scale implications for global change. The burning is usually a result of interacting factors, such as climate, land-use and vegetation type. Satellite-derived monthly time series datasets of rainfall, burned area and active fire detections between December 2000 and 2009 were used in this study. A map of vegetation types was also used to determine these factors’ spatial and temporal variability and interactions with the total amount of burned area and active fires detected in Colombia. Grasslands represented the vegetation most affected by fires every year in terms of burned area (standardised by their total area), followed by secondary vegetation, pasture and forests. Grasslands were also most affected by active fires, but followed closely by pasture, agricultural areas, secondary vegetation and forests. The results indicated strong climate and fire seasonality and marked regional difference, partly explained by climatic differences amongst regions and vegetation types, especially in the Orinoco and Caribbean regions. The incidence of fire in the Amazon and Andes was less influenced by climate in terms of burned area impacted, but the strength of the ENSO phenomenon affected the Orinoco and the Andes more in terms of burned area. Many of the active fires detected occurred in areas of transition between the submontane and lowland Andes and the Amazon, where extensive conversion to pasture is occurring. The possible high impact of small fires on the tropical rainforest present in this transition area and the Amazonian rainforest deserves more attention in Colombia due to its previous lack of attention to its contribution to global change.  相似文献   

18.
Implications of climate change for tillage practice in Australia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The world is experiencing climate change that in no way can be considered normal, and the challenge that this brings to agriculture is twofold. The first challenge relates to the continuing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that generate the changes to climate. Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory estimates that agriculture produces about one-quarter of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions (including land clearing). The main gases emitted are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gases are derived from high-value components within the agricultural production base, so reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture has the potential to provide production and financial benefits, as well as greenhouse gas reduction. Methane essentially derives from enteric fermentation in ruminants. Nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, on the other hand, are strongly influenced, and perhaps even determined by a range of variable soil-based parameters, of which the main ones are moisture, aerobiosis, temperature, amount and form of carbon, organic and inorganic nitrogen, pH, and cation exchange capacity. Tillage has the potential to influence most of these parameters, and hence may be one of the most effective mechanisms to influence rates of emissions of greenhouse gases from Australian agriculture. There have been substantial changes in tillage practice in Australia over the past few decades – with moves away from aggressive tillage techniques to a fewer number of passes using conservative practices. The implications of these changes in tillage for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from Australian agriculture are discussed.

The second challenge of climate change for Australian agriculture relates to the impacts of climate change on production, and the capacity of agriculture to adapt where it is most vulnerable. Already agriculture is exposed to climate change, and this exposure will be accentuated over the coming decades. The most recent projections for Australia provided by the CSIRO through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, indicate that southern Australia can expect a trend to drying due to increased temperatures, reduced rainfalls, and increased evaporative potentials. Extremes in weather events are likely also to become more common. We anticipate that climate change will become an additional driver for continued change in tillage practice across Australia, as land managers respond to the impacts of climate change on their production base, and governments undertake a range of activities to address both emissions reduction and the impacts of climate change in agriculture and land management.  相似文献   


19.
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle and has profound impacts on water chemistry and metabolism in lakes and rivers. Reported increases of DOC concentration in surface waters across Europe and Northern America have been attributed to several drivers, including changing climate, changing land‐use to eutrophication and declining acid deposition. The latter of these suggests that acidic deposition suppressed the solubility of DOC, and that this historic suppression is now being reversed by reducing emissions of acidifying pollutants. We studied a set of four parallel acidification and alkalization experiments in organic matter‐rich soils, which, after three years of manipulation, have shown distinct soil solution DOC responses to acidity change. We tested whether these DOC concentration changes were related to changes in the acid/base properties of DOC. Based on laboratory determination of DOC site density (S.D. = amount of carboxylic groups per milligram DOC) and charge density (C.D. = organic acid anion concentration per milligram DOC) we found that the change in DOC soil–solution partitioning was tightly related to the change in degree of dissociation (α = C.D.:S.D. ratio) of organic acids (R2 = 0.74, P < 0.01). Carbon turnover in soil organic matter (SOM), determined by soil respiration and β‐D‐glucosidase enzyme activity measurements, also appears to have some impact on DOC leaching, via constraints on the actual supply of available DOC from SOM; when the turnover rate of C in SOM is small, the effect of α on DOC leaching is reduced. Thus, differences in the magnitude of DOC changes seen across different environments might be explained by interactions between physicochemical restrictions of DOC soil–solution partitioning and SOM carbon turnover effects on DOC supply.  相似文献   

20.
This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.  相似文献   

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