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1.
Rangeland seeding practices in the Intermountain western United States are predominantly implemented in the year immediately following wildfire for the purposes of Emergency Stabilization and Rehabilitation (ESR). This necessarily links restoration and rehabilitation outcomes to the probability of a single year providing sufficiently favorable microclimatic conditions for desirable plant establishment. Field research studies in rangeland restoration are also typically of limited duration, and published results may not represent the full spectrum of conditions likely to be experienced at a given site. We propose that location-specific and temporal weather analysis may enhance the interpretation of historical planting data, support expanded inferences from short-term field studies, and facilitate meta-analysis of diverse field studies in rangeland restoration. We describe access and use of new databases and tools that can be used to characterize and rank weather and soil-microclimatic variables and suggest some standard graphs and weather metrics to establish a longer-term perspective for the interpretation of rangeland restoration outcomes. Tools of this type may also be useful in the interpretation of a wide range of agricultural and natural resource applications that are driven by similar weather inputs, particularly in arid and semiarid systems that exhibit high annual and seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature.  相似文献   

2.
Rangelands in the western United States exhibit extremely high temporal variability in seedbed microclimate, and this variability contributes to poor establishment of revegetation species that are typically planted in the fall. We conducted long-term simulations of cumulative germination as a function of planting date and identified alternative germination syndromes based on population-level responses to environmental variability. These germination syndromes reveal ecologically significant differences but also noteworthy similarities in species and seed lot response that can inform rangeland restoration planning and management. Seed germination may occur much sooner than assumed under the traditional paradigm of fall-planting/spring-emergence in the intermountain western United States, and seed germination per se does not appear to be a bottleneck for successful establishment in most years. Instead, simulations of germination response support recent hypotheses that postgermination/preemergent mortality may be the larger contributor to poor seedling establishment. Our data support two general strategies to improve the likelihood of seedling survival into the spring: seeding as late as possible in the fall and active diversification of germination syndromes within a given seed mix. Consistent application of these strategies could increase the probability that some seeds are always available to take advantage of any pulse of seedbed favorability in the late fall, winter, or early spring.  相似文献   

3.
In this article we test the notion that adaptation to climate change in grazed rangelands requires little more effort than current approaches to risk management because the inherent climate variability that characterizes rangelands provides a management environment that is preadapted to climate change. We also examine the alternative hypothesis that rangeland ecosystems and the people they support are highly vulnerable to climate change. Past climate is likely to become an increasingly poor predictor of the future, so there is a risk in relying on adaptation approaches developed solely in response to existing variability. We find incremental, autonomous adaptation will be sufficient to deal with most of the challenges provided by the gradual expression of climate change in the next decade or two. However, projections of greater climate change in the future means that the responses required are qualitatively as well as quantitatively different and are beyond the existing suite of adaptation strategies and coping range. The proactive adaptation responses required go well beyond incremental on-farm or local actions. New policies will be needed to deal with transformational changes associated with land tenure issues and challenges of some displacement and migration of people in vulnerable parts of rangelands. Even where appropriate adaptation actions can be framed, issues of when to act and how much to act in a proactive way remain a challenge for research, management, and policy. Whether incremental or transformational involving system changes, a diversity of adaptation options will be required in different rangeland regions to enhance social and ecological resilience.  相似文献   

4.
Millions of hectares of sagebrush/bunchgrass rangeland in the western United States are undergoing type conversion to systems dominated by introduced annual grasses that proliferate after wildfire. Postfire rehabilitation and restoration are problematic in these complex systems, but restoration difficulties are exacerbated by high annual and seasonal variability in precipitation and persistent drought. Successful restoration of compositional, structural, and functional diversity in these weather-limited systems may require relatively long-term, iterative management that incorporates flexibility in the definition of the aspirational/goal state. Restoration planning should also explicitly accommodate a lack of predictability of individual-year management results and expectations of only partial success of individual-year management treatments. This planning environment may require rapid assessment and contingency planning in the short term but also long-term persistence to overcome expected failures and setbacks. New methodologies are needed to increase biodiversity without damaging previously established plants, and new metrics need to be developed to monitor successional trajectories between initial and multiple-potential goal states.  相似文献   

5.
Recent climatic trends and climate model projections indicate that climate change will modify rangeland ecosystem functions and the services and livelihoods that they provision. Recent history has demonstrated that climatic variability has a strong influence on both ecological and social components of rangeland systems and that these systems possess substantial capacity to adapt to climatic variability. Specific objectives of this synthesis are to: 1) evaluate options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and future climate change; 2) survey actions that individuals, enterprises, and social organizations can use to adapt to climate change; and 3) assess options for system transformation when adaptation is no longer sufficient to contend with climate change. Mitigation for carbon sequestration does not appear economically viable, given the small and highly variable carbon dioxide fluxes of rangeland ecosystems and the high transaction costs that would be incurred. In contrast, adaptation strategies are numerous and provide a means to manage risks associated with climate change. Adaptation strategies are diverse, including altered risk perception by individuals, greater flexibility of production enterprises, and modifications to social organizations that emphasize climatic variability, rather than consistency. Many adaptations represent “no regrets” actions because their implementation can be justified without emphasis on pending climate change. Adaptations specific to livestock production systems can include flexible herd management, alternative livestock breeds or species, innovative pest management, modified enterprise structures, and geographic relocation. Social-ecological systems in which adaptation is insufficient to counter the adverse consequences of climate change might undergo transformative change to produce alternative ecosystem services, production enterprises, and livelihoods. The rangeland profession is in a pivotal position to provide leadership on this global challenge because it represents the intersection of management and scientific knowledge, includes diverse stakeholders who derive their livelihoods from rangelands, and interacts with organizations responsible for rangeland stewardship.  相似文献   

6.
Monitoring rangeland ecosystem dynamics, production, and performance is valuable for researchers and land managers. However, ecosystem monitoring studies can be difficult to interpret and apply appropriately if management decisions and disturbances are inseparable from the ecosystem's climate signal. This study separates seasonal weather influences from influences caused by disturbances and management decisions, making interannual time-series analysis more consistent and interpretable. We compared the actual ecosystem performance (AEP) of five rangeland vegetation types in the Owyhee Uplands for 9 yr to their expected ecosystem performance (EEP). Integrated growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for each of the nine growing seasons served as a proxy for annual AEP. Regression-tree models used long-term site potential, seasonal weather, and land cover data sets to generate annual EEP, an estimate of ecosystem performance incorporating annual weather variations. The difference between AEP and EEP provided a performance measure for each pixel in the study area. Ecosystem performance anomalies occurred when the ecosystem performed significantly better or worse than the model predicted. About 14% of the Owyhee Uplands showed a trend of significant underperformance or overperformance (P < 0.10). Land managers can use results from weather-based rangeland ecosystem performance models to help support adaptive management strategies.  相似文献   

7.
In rangelands, grazing management is a main driver of rangeland condition. Due to masking effects of seasonal climate fluctuations, little is known about (dis)similarity of management effects on rangeland condition and forage provision across major dryland biomes. Taking a macro-ecological perspective, we analysed if management effects differed between South Africa’s central grassland and Kalahari savanna biomes. We recorded proxies of forage provision (phytomass, vegetation cover and their ratio) over five seasons, annual rainfall to account for seasonal climate fluctuations, and rangeland condition (through relative abundances of increaser and decreaser species). Regarding forage provision, we found effects of management for the savanna, where, irrespective of rainfall, rotational grazing management resulted in higher phytomass and phytomass–cover ratios than management with continuous grazing. In the grassland, however, this difference was only discernible for phytomass–cover ratio in two years with above-average antecedent rainfall. This suggests that management effects are biome-dependent and that modulating effects of annual rainfall are stronger in the grassland. In either biome, management effects on the dominance of increaser and decreaser species were negligible, i.e. rangeland condition did not differ across management types in either biome. We conclude that investigations on management effects should account for interactions with biome and rainfall.  相似文献   

8.
In many developing countries where rangelands are a dominant land type and critically important in livelihoods of a significant portion of the population, severe rangeland degradation and/or conflicts over rangeland use can create significant social, economic, and environmental problems. In this paper, we review rangeland degradation in the developing world, its impacts and causes, discuss problems in applying rangeland science to improve rangeland conditions, discuss the role of rangeland scientists, and discuss our approach for enhancing rangeland science in international development. We suggest range scientists can provide valuable input and direction on issues of rangeland degradation (including state changes and impacts on ecosystem goods and services), provide guidance in methods and realistic opportunities for rangeland improvement to local users, government, and development organizations, and work to provide pastoralists with adaptive management in variable ecosystems. Conflict and poverty can create situations where a long-term goal of sustainable rangeland use is overwhelmed by short-term needs of safety and food security; however, providing science and training on sustainable management can make a difference where conflicts are not too severe and can help promote societal stability. Negative perceptions about aid are widespread, but the needs for improved conditions associated with multiple values of rangelands, and the needs of people utilizing these areas, are great. Conducting planning and projects with transparency and accountability will help promote more inclusive participation and successful projects. To be effective, a project needs to consider the needs of the people utilizing the project area but also provide to these communities information on values of the rangelands to other stakeholders (ecosystem services). Sustainable projects will require accountability and enhance self-reliance to allow community empowerment and adaptability to changes.  相似文献   

9.
The microclimatic requirements for successful seedling establishment are much more restrictive than those required for adult plant survival. The purpose of the current study was to use hydrothermal germination models and a soil energy and water flux model to evaluate intra- and interannual variability in seedbed microclimate relative to potential germination response of six perennial grasses and cheatgrass. We used a 44-yr weather record to parameterize a seedbed microclimate model for estimation of hourly temperature and moisture at seeding depth for a sandy loam soil type at the Orchard Field Test Site in southwestern Ada County, Idaho. Hydrothermal germination response was measured in the laboratory for two seed lots of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), four seed lots of bluebunch wheatgrass (Pseudoroegneria spicata [Pursh] Löve), three seed lots of bottlebrush squirreltail (Elymus elymoides [Raf] Swezey), and one seed lot each of Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Presl.), big squirreltail (Elymus multisetus [J.G. Smith] M.E. Jones), thickspike wheatgrass (Elymus lanceolatus [Scribn. And J.G. Smith] Gould) and Idaho fescue (Festuca idahoensis Elmer). Germination response models were developed to estimate potential germination rate for 13 subpopulations of each seed lot for every hour of the 44-yr simulation. Seedbed microclimate was assessed seasonally and for each day, month, and year, and germination rate-sum estimates integrated for a numerical index of relative site favorability for germination for each time period. The rate-sum favorability index showed a consistent pattern among seed lots for different years, and provides a relatively sensitive indicator of annual and seasonal variability in seedbed microclimate. This index could be used with field data to define minimum weather thresholds for successful establishment of alternative plant materials, in conjunction with weather forecast models for making restoration and fire-rehabilitation management decisions in the fall season, for evaluation of potential climate-change impacts on plant community trajectories, and in optimization schemes for selecting among alternative restoration/rehabilitation management scenarios.  相似文献   

10.
Rangeland-based animal husbandry has been frequently exposed to the vagaries of weather. While the current rates of climate variability are unprecedented in arid and semiarid regions, climate change is expected to put further pressure on rangelands with medium- and poor-quality forages and increase the vulnerability of households who mainly depend on livestock production. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure that livestock producers increase their resilience to climate variability or change. However, few field-based studies have focused on simultaneous investigation of both vulnerability and adaptation of livestock keepers to climate-related risks. To fill this gap, a field-based research study was conducted in southwest Iran. A survey of 274 herder families, selected using a cluster sampling technique, revealed low, medium and high levels of vulnerability, which were principally distinguished by various degrees of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Further, this study identified the main adaptation strategies employed by the herders of this region (i.e., purchasing fodder; rotational grazing; raising a mixed-herd, on-farm occupation; and postharvest grazing). Results indicated that most herder families applied traditional adaptation strategies in response to climate variability. Findings revealed that herders had to reduce their livestock due to low adaptability. Loan term, purchasing insurance, level of exposure, income, experience, response efficacy, and knowledge were the major determinants of the herders’ adaptation decisions. To increase the resilience of livestock producers against climate change, restructuring traditional livestock production systems, producing participatory knowledge and information for sustainable management of rangelands, and designing or redesigning effective adaptation strategies are required.  相似文献   

11.
This study used a fence-line contrast approach to investigate the long-term impact of high grazing pressure on the vegetation at a site in Namaqualand, South Africa. Forty pairs of permanently marked plots were surveyed in 1996, 2006 and 2016. The main objective was to investigate changes in the vegetation structure and species composition between the near-continuously grazed communal rangelands and the relatively lightly grazed commercial rangelands over the 20-year period. The results showed a decline in total vegetation cover in both commercial and communal rangelands in 2016 relative to the two earlier sampling periods. This can be attributed to the low rainfall in 2016 and was due largely to a reduction in annual plant cover, especially on the communal rangeland. Perennial shrub species provide a fodder bank that can be utilised by livestock in times of drought and can buffer short-term deficits in forage supply. However, the annuals that dominate the vegetation of the communal rangeland do not form such fodder banks and consequently do not have the same multi-year buffering capacity as perennial shrubs. This provides the mechanism whereby long-term continuous grazing decreases resilience to rainfall fluctuations and increases livestock variability, thereby promoting non-equilibrium-type dynamics in the system.  相似文献   

12.
Cattle weight gain responses to seasonal weather variability are difficult to predict for rangelands because few long-term (>20 yr) studies have been conducted. However, an increased understanding of temperature and precipitation influences on cattle weight gains is needed to optimize stocking rates and reduce enterprise risk associated with climatic variability. Yearling steer weight gain data collected at the USDA-ARS High Plains Grasslands Research Station at light, moderate, and heavy stocking rates for 30 years (1982–2011) were used to examine the effects of spring (April–June) and summer (July–September) temperature and precipitation, as well as prior-growing-season (prior April–September) and fall/winter (October–March) precipitation, on beef production (kg · ha?1). At heavier stocking rates, steer production was more sensitive to seasonal weather variations. A novel finding was that temperature (relatively cool springs and warm summers) played a large predictive role on beef production. At heavier stocking rates, beef production was highest during years with cool, wet springs and warm, wet summers, corresponding to optimum growth conditions for this mixed C3–C4 plant community. The novelty and utility of these findings may increase the efficacy of stocking rate decision support tools. The parsimonious model structure presented here includes three-month seasonal clusters that are forecasted and freely available from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration up to a year in advance. These seasonal weather forecasts can provide ranchers with an increased predictive capacity to adjust stocking rates (in advance of the grazing season) according to predicted seasonal weather conditions, thereby reducing enterprise risk.  相似文献   

13.
Revegetation of exotic annual grass−invaded rangelands is a primary objective of land managers following wildfires. Controlling invasive annual grasses is essential to increasing revegetation success; however, preemergent herbicides used to control annual grasses prohibit immediate seeding due to nontarget herbicide damage. Thus, seeding is often delayed 1 yr following herbicide application. This delay frequently allows for reinvasion of annual grasses, decreasing the success of revegetation efforts. Incorporating seeds into herbicide protection pods (HPPs) containing activated carbon (AC) permits concurrent high preemergent herbicide application and seeding because AC adsorbs and renders herbicides inactive. While HPPs have, largely in greenhouse studies, facilitated perennial bunchgrass emergence and early growth, their effectiveness in improving establishment of multiple species and functional groups in the field has not been assessed. Five bunchgrass species and two shrub species were seeded at two field sites with high imazapic application rates as bare seed and seed incorporated into HPPs. HPPs significantly improved establishment of sagebrush (Artemesia tridentata Nutt. Spp. wyomingensis Beetle & Young) and crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum [L.] Gaertn.) over the 2-yr study. Three native perennial grass species were protected from herbicide damage by HPPs but had low establishment in both treatments. The two remaining shrub and grass species did not establish sufficiently to determine treatment effects. While establishment of native perennial bunchgrasses was low, this study demonstrates that HPPs can be used to protect seeded bunchgrasses and sagebrush from imazapic, prolonging establishment time in the absence of competition with annual grasses.  相似文献   

14.
Rangelands account for almost half of the earth’s land surface and may play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle. We studied net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of C on eight North American rangeland sites over a 6-yr period. Management practices and disturbance regimes can influence NEE; for consistency, we compared ungrazed and undisturbed rangelands including four Great Plains sites from Texas to North Dakota, two Southwestern hot desert sites in New Mexico and Arizona, and two Northwestern sagebrush steppe sites in Idaho and Oregon. We used the Bowen ratio-energy balance system for continuous measurements of energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes at each study site during the measurement period (1996 to 2001 for most sites). Data were processed and screened using standardized procedures, which facilitated across-location comparisons. Although almost any site could be either a sink or source for C depending on yearly weather patterns, five of the eight native rangelands typically were sinks for atmospheric CO2 during the study period. Both sagebrush steppe sites were sinks and three of four Great Plains grasslands were sinks, but the two Southwest hot desert sites were sources of C on an annual basis. Most rangelands were characterized by short periods of high C uptake (2 mo to 3 mo) and long periods of C balance or small respiratory losses of C. Weather patterns during the measurement period strongly influenced conclusions about NEE on any given rangeland site. Droughts tended to limit periods of high C uptake and thus cause even the most productive sites to become sources of C on an annual basis. Our results show that native rangelands are a potentially important terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO2, and maintaining the period of active C uptake will be critical if we are to manage rangelands for C sequestration.  相似文献   

15.
Millions of hectares of rangeland in the western United States have been invaded by annual and woody plants that have increased the role of wildland fire. Altered fire regimes pose significant implications for runoff and erosion. In this paper we synthesize what is known about fire impacts on rangeland hydrology and erosion, and how that knowledge advances understanding of hydrologic risks associated with landscape scale plant community transitions and altered fire regimes. The increased role of wildland fire on western rangeland exposes landscapes to amplified runoff and erosion over short- and long-term windows of time and increases the risk of damage to soil and water resources, property, and human lives during extreme events. Amplified runoff and erosion postfire are a function of storm characteristics and fire-induced changes in site conditions (i.e., ground cover, soil water repellency, aggregate stability, and surface roughness) that define site susceptibility. We suggest that overall postfire hydrologic vulnerability be considered in a probabilistic framework that predicts hydrologic response for a range of potential storms and site susceptibilities and that identifies the hydrologic response magnitudes at which damage to values-at-risk are likely to occur. We identify key knowledge gaps that limit advancement of predictive technologies to address the increased role of wildland fire across rangeland landscapes. Our review of literature suggests quantifying interactions of varying rainfall intensity and key measures of site susceptibility, temporal variability in strength/influence of soil water repellency, and spatial scaling of postfire runoff and erosion remain paramount areas for future research to address hydrologic effects associated with the increased role of wildland fire on western rangelands.  相似文献   

16.
A large number of empirical and mechanistic simulation models and decision support tools have been produced for rangelands. Collectively, these models have considerably increased our fundamental knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of ecosystem functions, processes, and structure. We explore three areas where models for rangeland management are often challenging for land managers and enterprise-level decision making: 1) coping with spatiotemporal and climatic variability in implementing scenario forecasting, risk assessments, and adaptive management; 2) addressing outputs of multiple ecosystem goods and services and determining whether they are synergistic or competitive; and 3) integrating experimental and experiential knowledge and observations into decision making. Increasing the utility of models for rangeland management remains a key frontier and a major research need for the modeling community and will be achieved less by further technical advances and model complexity and more by the use of existing topoedaphic databases, the capacity to readily incorporate new experimental and experiential knowledge, and the use of frameworks that facilitate outcome-based, adaptive decision making at the enterprise level with associated economic considerations. Opportunities exist for increasing the utility of models for decision making and adaptive rangeland management through better matching of model complexity with enterprise-level, decision-making goals. This could be accomplished by incorporating a fundamental understanding of herbivory, fire, and spatiotemporal interactions with weather patterns that affect multiple ecosystem functions. Most important, effective models would allow land managers in a changing and variable climate to 1) evaluate trade offs in producing multiple goods and services, 2) optimize the application of conservation practices spatially (comparing costs and benefits accrued across different timescales), and 3) incorporate manager capacity, including experience, skills, and labor input.  相似文献   

17.
Rangelands occupy 50% of Earth’s land surface and thus are important in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. For rangelands and other terrestrial ecosystems, the balance between photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) and CO2 loss to respiration varies among years in response to interannual variation in the environment. Variability in CO2 exchange results from interannual differences in 1) environmental variables at a given point in the annual cycle (direct effects of the environment) and in 2) the response of fluxes to a given change in the environment because of interannual changes in biological factors that regulate photosynthesis and respiration (functional change). Functional change is calculated as the contribution of among-year differences in slopes of flux-environment relationships to the total variance in fluxes explained by the environment. Functional change complicates environmental-based predictions of CO2 exchange, yet its causes and contribution to flux variability remain poorly defined. We determine contributions of functional change and direct effects of the environment to interannual variation in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) of eight rangeland ecosystems in the western United States (58 site-years of data). We predicted that 1) functional change is correlated with interannual change in precipitation on each rangeland and 2) the contribution of functional change to variance in NEE increases among rangelands as mean precipitation increases. Functional change explained 10–40% of the variance in NEE and accounted for more than twice the variance in fluxes of direct effects of environmental variability for six of the eight ecosystems. Functional change was associated with interannual variation in precipitation on most rangelands but, contrary to prediction, contributed proportionally more to variance in NEE on arid than more mesic ecosystems. Results indicate that we must account for the influence of precipitation on flux-environment relationships if we are to distinguish environmental from management effects on rangeland C balance.  相似文献   

18.
Concerns over climate change have increased interest in carbon sequestration in agricultural lands. While the per-hectare carbon capture potential of rangelands is less than either cropland or forests, existing research suggests modest changes in carbon storage on rangelands can potentially alter the global carbon cycle. This paper examines the potential firm-level revenues from voluntary carbon offset programs, such as the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) Rangeland Soil Carbon Offset program. We estimate revenues for short-term voluntary offsets given historical prices and prices projected with potential cap-and-trade legislation. We also estimate revenues assuming 100-yr offsets are required to meet international sequestration standards. Simulation results indicate a relatively wide range of modest revenues from recent CCX contracts and carbon prices. The analysis suggests that recent carbon prices or low-end projected prices from cap-and-trade legislation are not likely to encourage producer participation. Medium and high carbon price projections for cap-and-trade legislation may make carbon sequestration a more attractive option for rangeland managers, but given potential requirements for projects to meet international guidelines for greenhouse gas offset projects, many issues remain before range managers may be interested in carbon sequestration as an enterprise.  相似文献   

19.
Microcredit loans are now common for Inner Mongolian pastoralists and are encouraged by government policy on the basis of their previous success for poverty alleviation. However, the effects of the highly variable weather characteristics of many semiarid rangelands on the efficacy of microcredit have not been fully examined. Pastoralists in our study area are often trapped in a vicious cycle of borrowing more each year to pay for previous debt and the next year’s production. Instead of helping to maintain herds through bad years, microcredit has often led to reduced herds and assets. To understand why, a qualitative, interview-based approach was used to determine the kinds of loans taken out and why they are taken out, as well as to assess household livestock sales, income, and costs in three villages. In poor years, 82% of households used loans to purchase winter forage. However, borrowers sold more livestock because the standard 1-yr loan term, combined with weather and market conditions, often forced sales for repayment. Weather and market variation made annual income and costs difficult to anticipate. Loans became an added household risk, another way that environment can influence the social and economic interactions of a rangeland social-ecological system. Longer-term loans could smooth the uncertainty of weather and market conditions, and supplementary measures such as government subsidies or forage insurance could buffer the inevitable but unpredictable bad years. Globally, study of the impacts of nonequilibrial ecological dynamics on economic and policy institutions would help to understand why many development initiatives have failed in such systems.  相似文献   

20.
Rangelands make an important contribution to carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. We used a readily accessible interface (COMET VR) to a simulation model (CENTURY) to predict changes in soil carbon in response to management changes commonly associated with conservation programs. We also used a subroutine of the model to calculate an estimate of uncertainty of the model output based on the similarity between climate, soil, and management history inputs and those used previously to parameterize the model for common land use (cropland to perennial grassland) and management (stocking rate reductions and legume addition) changes to test the validity of the approach across the southwestern United States. The conversion of small grain cropland to perennial cover was simulated acceptably (<20% uncertainty) by the model for soil, climate, and management history attributes representative of 32% of land area currently in small grain production, while the simulation of small grain cropland to perennial cover + legumes was acceptable on 73% of current small grain production area. The model performed poorly on arid and semiarid rangelands for both management (reduced stocking) and restoration (legume addition) practices. Only 66% of land area currently used as rangeland had climate, soil, and management attributes that resulted in acceptable uncertainty. Based on our results, it will be difficult to credibly predict changes to soil carbon resulting from common land use and management practices, both at fine and coarse scales. To overcome these limitations, we propose an integrated system of spatially explicit direct measurement of soil carbon at locations with well-documented management histories and climatic records to better parameterize the model for rangeland applications. Further, because the drivers of soil carbon fluxes on rangelands are dominated by climate rather than management, the interface should be redesigned to simulate soil carbon changes based on ecological state rather than practice application.  相似文献   

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