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基于非线性规划的模糊多属性群体偏好决策模型 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
针对决策属性权重未知且属性值为三角模糊数的群体多属性决策问题,提出了一种新的非线性规划决策方法。该方法首先设置理想方案的属性值和权值,并依据专家偏好集合和三角模糊数的距离来判断群体决策的一致度和不一致度,然后构建模糊多属性群体偏好非线性规划决策模型,求解模型得到理想方案属性值和各属性的权重,再通过计算各备选方案到理想方案的实际距离来进行决策和方案排序,最后通过算例检验,为决策提供新思路。 相似文献
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《林业工程学报》2017,(5)
我国是竹林资源最为丰富的国家,也是竹质品生产制造和出口的大国,竹林培育与竹质品的加工与研发一直处于世界的前列,目前,我国竹产业已经形成了一二三产融合发展的绿色朝阳产业链。而在具体的竹质品开发设计过程中,意象感知评价和决策是一个十分复杂的问题,有效匹配消费者的意象认知需求是企业和设计师面临的重要任务,因此,建立科学的意象决策方法具有重要的现实意义。针对如何有效进行竹质品的认知决策问题,笔者提出了基于信息熵-TOPSIS的竹质品设计意象认知决策方法。以竹质水杯方案决策为例,首先,采用语义差异法和因子分析获取水杯产品的意象认知维度;其次,针对具体的竹质水杯设计方案,以获取的多维度认知意象为评价指标,通过意象认知实验得到用户的意象认知情况,并将评价值规范化处理;再次,运用信息熵法计算各意象指标的熵值,并进一步计算出各自的熵权,即各维度认知意象的权重;最后,应用TOPSIS计算各设计方案与各维度理想解、负理想解的距离,最终得到每个竹质水杯方案接近度,从而获得方案的优劣排序,确立最优方案。决策过程充分利用初始调查的数据信息,能直观、客观、定量地反映每个方案的优劣程度,实用性与适用性较好,为企业和设计师提供了一种新的竹质品设计认知评价与决策方法。 相似文献
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福建省主要适生观赏草品种盆栽观赏性评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《中国城市林业》2019,(1):80-84
通过对福建省主要适生观赏草品种的盆栽观赏性评价,筛选出盆栽观赏性价值高的观赏草,使其加快投入花卉市场,丰富市场上的观赏草盆栽品种,促进中国观赏草盆栽事业的发展。测定了花色、叶色、株高、叶片数、观赏期等5个指标,采用灰色关联度分析法对16种观赏草盆栽的株型紧凑度、花序观赏性、叶色、植株观赏性、整体搭配效果、观赏期、生长势7个性状进行了观赏性评价。综合评价比较高的品种有粉黛乱子草,其与理想种的关联度为0. 650 5;其次是金叶石菖蒲、金钱菖蒲和黄金姬菖蒲,它们与理想草种的关联度比较接近,分别为0. 638 3、0. 630 3和0. 629 4,具有较好的综合性状;关联度较低的是细叶芒和花叶蒲苇,其与理想种的关联度为0. 488 7和0. 484 5。 相似文献
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本文综合考虑经济、生态、社会效益进行了林下种植模式的优选方法。林下种植模式优选是一个复杂的多属性决策问题,需要将其产生的经济、生态、社会效益纳入同一框架加以综合分析。基于各种林下种植模式的不同特点,建立了优选评价指标体系,综合运用IAHP(区间数层次分析法)、Vague集与TOPSIS(逼近理想解排序法)模型对贵州省L县J镇4种林下种植模式进行了优选分析。结果表明：1)林下种植模式优选评价指标体系包含了目标层、准则层、指标层和因素层4阶递阶层次结构,其中因素层从经济-生态-社会综合效益共识别了20个因素。2)通过IAHP对评价指标赋权发现,在发展林下种植过程中经济效益是首要考虑的因素,权重最高为0.405,其次是生态效益和社会效益,权重依次为0.314和0.281。3)实证研究得出了4种林下种植模式的优劣排序：A1>A4>A2>A3,即林药模式最优,其次是林菌模式,再次是林茶模式,最差的是林蔬模式。文章提出的基于IAHP、Vague集与TOPSIS的林下种植优选模型弥补了传统决策方... 相似文献
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徐军 《内蒙古林业调查设计》2013,36(2):7-9
文章论述了辽宁省"十二五"期间年森林采伐限额的编制中,采用灰色关联度分析的灰色综合评估法对核减指标进行综合评估,从而确定影响采伐限额的核减指标关联程度,获得影响采伐限额的核减指标关联度排序,对采伐限额的具体编制具有现实的指导意义。 相似文献
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针对儿童卧房家具设计的方法和评价,采用层次分析法（AHP）,构建儿童卧房家具设计要素的判断矩阵,确定各要素的权重并应用实例,采用逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）,通过对方案评分求得的初始评价矩阵进行加权标准化处理,计算评价对象的正负理想解及相对贴进度,对方案进行优劣排序。结果显示：结构安全、材料环保性、尺度可调、学习、储物是儿童卧房家具设计主要影响要素。在根据要素权重排序设计的3个方案中,方案1为最优设计方案。结合层次分析法与逼近理想解排序法构建的评价模型,能够尽可能减少设计决策的主观性影响,使决策中的设计方案更加科学合理,对儿童卧房家具设计方面有一定实用价值。 相似文献
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《中南林业科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,(9)
品种鉴定、选优评价、性状可塑性研究等需要对多个性状整合,通过降维处理解决多个性状的计算难题,而诸多研究采用统计学软件对性状的整合分析,并未取得理想结果。以文冠果营养器官的性状指标(根插幼苗的生长性状、分配性状)和生殖器官的性状指标(花朵性状、花序性状)为例,应用康奈尔生态软件Canoco和SPSS两种统计软件,进行主成分PCA分析。结果证实:多元性状的整合,Canoco-PCA明显优于SPSS-PCA,其原因在于前者原始数据的标准化采用中心化,而后者采用离差标准化;以Canoco-PCA前2个排序轴作因变量、性状作自变量进行双重筛选逐步回归,给出的方程可用于性状评价、可塑性研究等,为植物性状整合提供了一个新的计算方法。 相似文献
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冷杉林木腐朽程度是冷杉林分质量变化的重要标志。研究表明,西部高山林区冷杉林木腐朽是严重的,腐朽木的腐朽高度占树高的11.8～32.6％,腐朽材积平均为3.8～20.4％(Ⅱ阶段后期腐朽)。林木腐朽状况以林木年龄为转移,过熟林木腐朽高度为1.8～10.3m,超过中龄林木(0.5～1.8m)的3～6倍。林木径级与腐朽程度(腐朽高度、腐朽材积)成正相关。腐朽高度与出林率为负相关。研究结果,伐根腐朽直径(X)与腐朽高度((?)_1)、腐朽材积((?)_2)、出材率((?)_2)建立回归方程:根据林(原)木的伐根腐朽直径,即可判别其出材等级范围。冷杉林分腐朽状况是个体被害林木的总和,而林木腐朽程度反映了冷杉腐朽病的严重性。可以认为,冷杉林分腐朽率是数量增长的概念,而林木内部腐朽程度则是质量变化的标志。基于此,本文着重从冷杉林木年龄、径级与腐朽程度进行了研究、探讨冷杉腐朽病危害的实质。 相似文献
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The Forest village scheme was introduced by the Forest Industries Organisation (FIO) of Thailand in 1967 as an attempt to stop further spread of the fast increasing shifting cultivation and deforestation in the country. The underlying princple of the scheme is to relate reforestation with social welfare of the people involved. It is essentially a modification of the traditional taungya method of plantation establishment.The salient aspect of the scheme is to induce the shifting cultivators to settle down in villages where each family is given tenure over a plot of land to construct a house and develop a homegarden around it. The farmers are required to help establish and maintain forest plantations, in which they are permitted to raise agricultural crops during the first three years of its establishment. The farmers are also given free medical and educational facilities, and technical advice on crop and livestock husbandry. They can also earn cash rewards for successful plantation establishment.Although the scheme has not achieved its full target in terms of area covered and number of families settled, it is proving to be a successful method of luring people away from destructive shifting cultivation. The approach is applicable to other countries and regions with similar land-use problems and socio-cultural background.The paper also examines the constraints to the effective working of the scheme, provides some simple suggestions for improving its functioning and identies some of the issues that can easily be tackled by research. 相似文献
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《Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research》2012,27(5):454-463
Abstract The primary basis of contemporary forest planning research, which assumes the forest owner to maximize his or her expected utility, has left aside cognitive and social patterns of reasoning in real decision-making situations. To add on to present knowledge, the decision aid needs were approached by assessing different ways of solving decision problems among non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners in Finland. The study investigated how the diversifying goal structure of NIPF owners would be reflected in practical decision-making strategies. Semi-structured in-depth interviews and qualitative analysis were used to acquire a deeper understanding of NIPF owners’ decision making. Altogether, 30 purposively selected owners from southern Finland provided information to analyse the level of sharing decision power and eagerness to learn in decision making. Five decision-making modes were distinguished among the interviewees: (A) substantial trust in professionals, (B) desire to learn for self-reliance, (C) sequential, managerial judgements, (D) balanced, considerate decision making, and (E) strong decisions of one's own. According to these modes, corresponding decision aid approaches were constructed. The results show a broad variety of problem-solving strategies and thus decision aid needs. To facilitate unprompted and genuine decision making, the presented modes should be taken into account when owner-orientated forest planning services for NIPF owners are developed. 相似文献
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Past,current and future drivers for the development of decision support systems in forest management
The potential for development in decision support for forest management is set by decision theory, available technology and methods. Demands for decision support are emerging from contemporary challenges and problems of forest management which act as stimuli for the science community. Objectives and approaches in forest management as well as technologies have been changing throughout history. Accordingly, the demand for tools to support planning and decision-making has evolved. In this contribution, the authors review the historic development of decision support systems (DSS) for forest management and discuss past, current and future drivers. Based on evidence from scientific literature, case studies in the frame of the Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FORSYS) action, as well as experiences of the authors some hypotheses about the future of DSS are drawn. It is shown that in the past, the drivers evolving from forest management as well as decision support technologies have influenced the way of how models and methods have been applied as well as how DSS architectures have been designed. It is concluded that in the future, the challenges for DSS development will increase, as the complexity of decision-making processes and the related models will compete with the user demands which ask for simplicity. 相似文献
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针对传统平面机构自由度计算公式多及计算不准等问题，提出用一个新的公式来替代传统平面机构自由度计算的多个公式，用一个多余自由度入替代平面机构局部自由度和虚约束两个概念，为平面机构自由度计算提供了简单、准确的计算公式。 相似文献
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Bahman Sotoudeh Foumani Taymour Rostami Shahraji 《Journal of Sustainable Forestry》2019,38(2):130-148
The aim of this research is to evaluate three forthcoming scenarios (continuing of forest management plans, logging ban, and forest management plans halt) in terms of policy change and select the best method based on sustainable forest management strategies in Iranian Hyrcanian forests. For this propose a two-layer evaluation process was considered for choosing the best alternative. Analytic network process as a decision approach is applied with Benefit–Opportunity–Cost–Risk (BOCR) merit. The data were obtained either from the previous research or through questionnaires. The results indicated that the benefits and risks were more important in terms of decision-making, compared to the opportunities and costs. Finally, the scenario of ‘continuity of forest management plans’ was selected as the most suitable alternative. The decision framework proposed in this study offers a rational means for decision-making of forest policy. 相似文献
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《Southern Forests》2013,75(4):361-371
An alternative approach to the formal management strategy of tropical timber species from the Congo Basin was investigated. It focused on the development of glulam, with an aim to specify a decision support model for the valorisation of tropical timber species considered for use in these products. There were 76 forest species analysed regarding ecological, engineering and social criteria according to their major uses. The Electre TRI-B multicriteria sorting method was used. The main result was a new and robust classification tool of timber species from the Congo Basin, corresponding to their multicriteria consensus degree. The potentials of the new grouping system were analysed. Species that meet a great majority of criteria were identified. They were highly suitable for sustaining the market position of glulam products. Implementing this strategy may significantly improve the management and increase the value of the timber species from the Congo Basin, while preserving endangered species. 相似文献
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Naomi Radke Rasoul Yousefpour Roderich von Detten Stefan Reifenberg Marc Hanewinkel 《Annals of Forest Science》2017,74(2):43
Key message
Multi-objective robust decision making is a promising decision-making method in forest management under climate change as it adequately considers deep uncertainties and handles the long-term, inflexible, and multi-objective character of decisions. This paper provides guidance for application and recommendation on the design.Context
Recent studies have promoted the application of robust decision-making approaches to adequately consider deep uncertainties in natural resource management. Yet, applications have until now hardly addressed the forest management context.Aims
This paper seeks to (i) assemble different definitions of uncertainty and draw recommendation to deal with the different levels in decision making, (ii) outline those applications that adequately deal with deep uncertainty, and (iii) systematically review the applications to natural resources management in order to (iv) propose adoption in forest management.Methods
We conducted a systematic literature review of robust decision-making approaches and their applications in natural resource management. Different levels of uncertainty were categorized depending on available knowledge in order to provide recommendations on dealing with deep uncertainty. Robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resources management were evaluated based on different analysis steps. A simplified application to a hypothetical tree species selection problem illustrates that distinct robustness formulations may lead to different conclusions. Finally, robust decision-making applications to forest management under climate change uncertainty were evaluated and recommendations drawn.Results
Deep uncertainty is not adequately considered in the forest management literature. Yet, the comparison of robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resource management provide guidance on applying robust decision making in forest management regarding decision contexts, decision variables, robustness metrics, and how uncertainty is depicted.Conclusion
As forest management is characterized by long decision horizons, inflexible systems, and multiple objectives, and is subject to deeply uncertain climate change, the application of a robust decision-making framework using a global, so-called satisficing robustness metric is recommended. Further recommendations are distinguished depending on the decision context.19.
以红树林植物无瓣海桑(Sonneratia apetala)为研究对象,运用负二项参数、Cassie指标、平均拥挤度、聚块性指标和丛生指标的方法,研究广东省湛江市雷州附城镇无瓣海桑林天然更新格局,同时运用灰色关联理论对无瓣海桑林天然更新的影响因子进行分析.结果表明:无瓣海桑林天然更新格局呈聚集分布,能与红树林乡土树种共存;枝插泥深度、林分郁闭度对无瓣海桑群落天然更新影响较大,关联度分别达0.714、0.539;林龄关联度最小,为0.434,对天然更新影响最小. 相似文献