Context

Cultural ecosystem services, many of which depend on biodiversity, are recognized as important but seldom quantified biophysically across landscapes. Furthermore, many ecosystem service models are static, and the supply of cultural ecosystem services may be misrepresented if seasonal shifts in biotic communities are ignored.

Objectives

We modeled landscape dynamics of wildflower blooms in a temperate montane landscape to determine (1) how floral resources (wildflower species richness, abundance, timing, and presence of charismatic species) changed over the growing season, (2) how projected wildflower viewing hotspots varied over space and time, and (3) how spatial shifts in floral resources affected potential public access to wildflower viewing.

Methods

Data were collected at 63 sites across a rural-to-urban gradient in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA). Generalized linear models were used to identify factors affecting floral resources at two temporal scales. Floral resources were projected across the landscape and hotspots of wildflower viewing were quantified using overlay analysis.

Results

Floral resources were affected by topoedaphic conditions, climate, and surrounding building density and changed seasonally. Seasonal models revealed locational shifts in ecosystem service hotspots, which changed the proportion of hotspots accessible to the public and identified wildflower-viewing opportunities unnoticed by static models.

Conclusion

Relationships between landscape gradients, biodiversity, and ecosystem service supply varied seasonally, and our models identified cultural ecosystem service hotspots otherwise obscured by simple proxies. Landscape models of biodiversity-based cultural ecosystem services should include seasonal dynamics of biotic communities to avoid under- or over-emphasizing the importance of particular locations in ecosystem service assessments.

Context

While remote sensing imagery is effective for quantifying land cover changes across large areas, its utility for directly assessing the response of animals to disturbance is limited. Soundscapes approaches—the recording and analysis of sounds in a landscape—could address this shortcoming.

Objectives

In 2011, a massive wildfire named “the Horseshoe 2 Burn” occurred in the Chiricahua National Monument, Arizona, USA. We evaluated the impact of this wildfire on acoustic activity of animal communities.

Methods

In 2013, soundscape recordings were collected over 9 months in 12 burned and 12 non-burned sites in four ecological systems. The seasonal and diel biological acoustic activity were described using the “Bioacoustic Index”, a detailed aural analysis of sound sources, and a new tool called “Sonic Timelapse Builder” (STLB).

Results

Seasonal biophony phenology showed a diurnal peak in June and a nocturnal peak in October in all ecological systems. On June mornings, acoustic activity was lower at burned than at non-burned sites in three of four ecological systems, due to a decreased abundance of cicadas directly impacted by the death of trees. Aural analyses revealed that 55% of recordings from non-burned sites contained insect sounds compared to 18% from burned sites. On October nights, orthopteran activity was more prevalent at some burned sites, possibly due to post-fire emergence of herbaceous.

Conclusions

Soundscape approaches can help address long-term conservation issues involving the responses of animal communities to wildfire. Acoustic methods can serve as a valuable complement to remote sensing for disturbance-based landscape management.

Context

Common species important for ecosystem restoration stand to lose as much genetic diversity from anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and climate change as rare species, but are rarely studied. Salt marshes, valuable ecosystems in widespread decline due to human development, are dominated by the foundational plant species black needlerush (Juncus roemerianus Scheele) in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Objectives

We assessed genetic patterns in J. roemerianus by measuring genetic and genotypic diversity, and characterizing population structure. We examined population connectivity by delineating possible dispersal corridors, and identified landscape factors influencing population connectivity.

Methods

A panel of 19 microsatellite markers was used to genotype 576 samples from ten sites across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR) to the Apalachicola NERR. Genetic distances (F_ST and D_ch) were used in a least cost transect analysis (LCTA) within a hierarchical model selection framework.

Results

Genetic and genotypic diversity results were higher than expected based on life history literature, and samples structured into two large, admixed genetic clusters across the study area, indicating sexual reproduction may not be as rare as predicted in this clonal macrophyte. Digitized coastal transects buffered by 500 m may represent possible dispersal corridors, and developed land may significantly impede population connectivity in J. roemerianus.

Conclusions

Results have important implications for coastal restoration and management that seek to preserve adaptive potential by sustaining natural levels of genetic diversity and conserving population connectivity. Our methodology could be applied to other common, widespread and understudied species.

Context

Human–nature interactions are reflected in the values people assign to landscapes. These values shape our understanding and actions as landscape co-creators, and need to be taken into account to achieve an integrated management of the landscape that involves civil society.

Objectives

The aim of this research was to increase the current knowledge on the most and least common landscape values perceived by local stakeholders, the patterns in the spatial distribution of values, and their connection to different socio-economic backgrounds and landscape characteristics across Europe.

Methods

The research consisted of a cross-site comparison study on how landscape values are perceived in six areas of Europe using Public Participation GIS surveys. Answers were analysed combining contingency tables, spatial autocorrelation and bivariate correlation methods, kernel densities, land cover ratios, and viewshed analyses. Results were discussed in the light of findings derived from other European participatory mapping studies.

Results

We identified shared patterns in the perception of landscape values across Europe. Recreation, aesthetics, and social fulfilment were the most common values. Landscape values showed common spatial patterns mainly related to accessibility and the presence of water, settlements, and cultural heritage. However, respondents in each study site had their own preferences connected to the intrinsic characteristics of the local landscape and culture.

Conclusions

The results encourage land planners and researchers to approach landscape values in relation to socio-cultural and bio-physical land characteristics comprehensibly, acknowledging the complexity in the relationship between people’s perception and the landscape, to foster more effective and inclusive landscape management strategies.

Context

Land-use change can reduce and isolate suitable habitat generating spatial variation in resource availability. Improving species distribution models requires a multi-scale understanding of resource requirements and species’ sensitivities to novel landscapes.

Objectives

We investigated how the spatial distribution of supplementary habitats (permanent wetlands), urbanization, water depths, and distribution of a key prey species (muskrat; Ondatra zibethicus) influence occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison). Although mink are widespread across North America and a destructive invasive species in Europe, South America, and Asia, we have a limited understanding of factors affecting their spatial distribution.

Methods

We used 6 years of presence–absence data (2007–2012) to evaluate occupancy dynamics of mink at 58–90 stream sites along an urbanization gradient in Illinois, USA. We predicted negative relationships between stream occupancy and urban land cover and distance from permanent wetlands, and positive associations with muskrat presence, water depth, and riparian zone width.

Results

Contrary to our hypothesis, stream sites closer to permanent wetlands had lower occupancy and colonization rates for mink. Occupancy and colonization rates were higher at sites with deeper water, and colonization rates were related negatively to urbanization. Mink were more likely to leave stream habitat if muskrats were not present and permanent wetlands were nearby.

Conclusion

Factors interplaying across multiple scales influenced occupancy dynamics of mink in stream habitat in a highly modified landscape. Our results highlight the importance of considering both direct measures of prey availability and the spatial distribution of supplementary habitats to improve habitat-selection models for carnivores.

Context

Anthropogenic activities readily result in the fragmentation of habitats such that species persistence increasingly depends on their ability to disperse. However, landscape features that enhance or limit individual dispersal are often poorly understood. Landscape genetics has recently provided innovative solutions to evaluate landscape resistance to dispersal.

Objectives

We studied the dispersal of the common meadow brown butterfly, Maniola jurtina, in agricultural landscapes, using a replicated study design and rigorous statistical analyses. Based on existing behavioral and life history research, we hypothesized that the meadow brown would preferentially disperse through its preferred grassy habitats (meadows and road verges) and avoid dispersing through woodlands and the agricultural matrix.

Methods

Samples were collected in 18 study landscapes of 5 × 5 km in three contrasting agricultural French regions. Using circuit theory, least cost path and transect-based methods, we analyzed the effect of the landscape on gene flow separately for each sex.

Results

Analysis of 1681 samples with 6 microsatellites loci revealed that landscape features weakly influence meadow brown butterfly gene flow. Gene flow in both sexes appeared to be weakly limited by forests and arable lands, whereas grasslands and grassy linear elements (road verges) were more likely to enhance gene flow.

Conclusion

Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of greater dispersal through landscape elements that are most similar to suitable habitat. Our spatially replicated landscape genetics study allowed us to detect subtle landscape effects on butterfly gene flow, and these findings were reinforced by consistent results across analytical methods.

Context

Seed dispersal is recognized as having profound effects on the distribution, dynamics and structure of plant populations and communities. However, knowledge of how landscape structure shapes carnivore-mediated seed dispersal patterns is still scarce, thereby limiting our understanding of large-scale plant population processes.

Objectives

We aim to determine how the amount and spatial configuration of forest cover impacted the relative abundance of carnivorous mammals, and how these effects cascaded through the seed dispersal kernels they generated.

Methods

Camera traps activated by animal movement were used for carnivore sampling. Colour-coded seed mimics embedded in common figs were used to know the exact origin of the dispersed seed mimics later found in carnivore scats. We applied this procedure in two sites differing in landscape structure.

Results

We did not find between-site differences in the relative abundance of the principal carnivore species contributing to seed dispersal patterns, Martes foina. Mean dispersal distance and the probability of long dispersal events were higher in the site with spatially continuous and abundant forest cover, compared to the site with spatially aggregated and scarcer forest cover. Seed deposition closely matched the spatial patterning of forest cover in both study sites, suggesting behaviour-based mechanisms underpinning seed dispersal patterns generated by individual frugivore species.

Conclusions

Our results provide the first empirical evidence of the impact of landscape structure on carnivore-mediated seed dispersal kernels. They also indicate that seed dispersal kernels generated strongly depend on the effect that landscape structure exerts on carnivore populations, particularly on habitat-use preferences.

Context

Organisms commonly respond to their environment across a range of scales, however many habitat selection studies still conduct selection analyses using a single-scale framework. The adoption of multi-scale modeling frameworks in habitat selection studies can improve the effectiveness of these studies and provide greater insights into scale-dependent relationships between species and specific habitat components.

Objectives

Our study assessed multi-scale nest/roost habitat selection of the federally “Threatened” Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida) in northern Arizona, USA in an effort to provide improved conservation and management strategies for this subspecies.

Methods

We conducted multi-scale habitat modeling to assess habitat selection by Mexican spotted owls using survey data collected by the USFS. Each selected covariate was included in multi-scale models at their “characteristic scale” and we used an all-subsets approach and model selection framework to assess habitat selection.

Results

The “characteristic scale” identified for each covariate varied considerably among covariates and results from multi-scale models indicated that percent canopy cover and slope were the most important covariates with respect to habitat selection by Mexican spotted owls. Multi-scale models consistently outperformed their analogous single-scale counterparts with respect to the proportion of deviance explained and model predictive performance.

Conclusions

Efficacy of future habitat selection studies will benefit by taking a multi-scale approach. In addition to potentially providing increased explanatory power and predictive capacity, multi-scale habitat models enhance our understanding of the scales at which species respond to their environment, which is critical knowledge required to implement effective conservation and management strategies.

Context

Multiple ecological drivers generate spatial patterns in species’ distributions. Changes to natural disturbance regimes can place early successional habitat specialists at an increased risk of extinction by altering landscape patterns of habitat suitability.

Objectives

We developed a series of hypotheses to evaluate the effects of landscape structure, fire history, and site-level habitat quality on site occupancy by an early successional specialist, the eastern chestnut mouse (Pseudomys gracilicaudatus).

Methods

We obtained eight years of monitoring data from 26 sites in recently burned heathland in southeast Australia. We used generalised linear models to determine which explanatory variables were related to occupancy. We also explored predictability in patterns of small mammal species co-occurrence.

Results

Landscape structure (patch area, landscape heterogeneity) was strongly related to site occupancy. Site occupancy was associated with dead shrubs in the understory and rock cover on ground layer, but was not directly influenced by recent or historical fire. Contrary to contemporary ecological theory, we found no predictable species associations in our early successional community.

Conclusions

We recommend surveys take account of landscape configuration and proximity to suitable habitat for optimal results. Fire regimes expected to promote eastern chestnut mouse population growth should encourage the retention of critical habitat features rather than be based on temporal rates of successional stages. For management to adequately account for post-disturbance patterns in early successional communities, a species-by-species, multi-scaled approach to research is necessary.

Context

Despite decades of research, there is an intense debate about the consistency of the hump-shaped pattern describing the relationship between diversity and disturbance as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH). Previous meta-analyses have not explicitly considered interactive effects of disturbance frequency and intensity of disturbance on plant species diversity in terrestrial landscapes.

Objective

We conducted meta-analyses to test the applicability of IDH by simultaneously examining the relationship between species richness, disturbance frequency (quantified as time since last disturbance as originally proposed) and intensity of disturbance in forest landscapes.

Methods

The effects of disturbance frequency, intensity, and their interaction on species richness was evaluated using a mixed-effects model.

Results

We found that species richness peaks at intermediate frequency after both high and intermediate disturbance intensities, but the richness-frequency relationship differed between intensity classes.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the need to measure multiple disturbance components that could help reconcile conflicting empirical results on the effect of disturbance on plant species diversity.

Context

Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are widespread drivers of biodiversity decline. Understanding how habitat quality interacts with landscape context, and how they jointly affect species in human-modified landscapes, is of great importance for informing conservation and management.

Objectives

We used a whole-ecosystem manipulation experiment in the Brazilian Amazon to investigate the relative roles of local and landscape attributes in affecting bat assemblages at an interior-edge-matrix disturbance gradient.

Methods

We surveyed bats in 39 sites, comprising continuous forest (CF), fragments, forest edges and intervening secondary regrowth. For each site, we assessed vegetation structure (local-scale variable) and, for five focal scales, quantified habitat amount and four landscape configuration metrics.

Results

Smaller fragments, edges and regrowth sites had fewer species and higher levels of dominance than CF. Regardless of the landscape scale analysed, species richness and evenness were mostly related to the amount of forest cover. Vegetation structure and configurational metrics were important predictors of abundance, whereby the magnitude and direction of response to configurational metrics were scale-dependent. Responses were ensemble-specific with local-scale vegetation structure being more important for frugivorous than for gleaning animalivorous bats.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that scale-sensitive measures of landscape structure are needed for a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of fragmentation on tropical biota. Although forest fragments and regrowth habitats can be of conservation significance for tropical bats our results further emphasize that primary forest is of irreplaceable value, underlining that their conservation can only be achieved by the preservation of large expanses of pristine habitat.

Context

The variation in spatial distribution between ecosystem services can be high. Hence, there is a need to spatially identify important sites for conservation planning. The term ‘ecosystem service hotspot’ has often been used for this purpose, but definitions of this term are ambiguous.

Objectives

We review and classify methods to spatially delineate hotspots. We test how spatial configuration of hotspots for a set of ecosystem services differs depending on the applied method. We compare the outcomes to a heuristic site prioritisation approach (Marxan).

Methods

The four tested hotspot methods are top richest cells, spatial clustering, intensity, and richness. In a conservation scenario we set a target of conserving 10 % of the quantity of five regulating and cultural services for the forest area of Telemark county, Norway.

Results

Spatial configuration of selected areas as retrieved by the four hotspots and Marxan differed considerably. Pairwise comparisons were at the lower end of the scale of the Kappa statistic (0.11–0.27). The outcomes also differed considerably in mean target achievement, cost-effectiveness in terms of land-area needed per unit target achievement and compactness in terms of edge-to-area ratio.

Conclusions

An ecosystem service hotspot can refer to either areas containing high values of one service or areas with multiple services. Differences in spatial configuration among hotspot methods can lead to uncertainties for decision-making. This also has consequences for analysing the spatial co-occurrence of hotspots of multiple services and of services and biodiversity.

Context

Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.

Objectives

We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.

Methods

We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas.

Results

19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses.

Conclusions

We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

Context

Context Bats are considered as an ecological indicator of habitat quality due to their sensitivity to human-induced ecosystem changes. Hence, we will focus the study on two indicator species of bats as a proxy to evaluate structure and composition of the landscape to analyze anthropic pressures driving changes in patterns.

Objectives

This study develops a spatially-explicit model to highlight key habitat nodes and corridors which are integral for maintaining functional landscape connectivity for bat movement. We focus on a complex mountain landscape and two bat species: greater (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) and lesser (Rhinolophus hipposideros) horseshoe bats which are known to be sensitive to landscape composition and configuration.

Methods

Species distribution models are used to delineate high-quality foraging habitat for each species using opportunistic ultrasonic bat data. We then performed connectivity analysis combining (modelled) suitable foraging habitat and (known) roost sites. We use graph-theory and the deviation in the probability of connectivity to quantify resilience of the landscape connectivity to perturbations.

Results

Both species were confined to lowlands (<1000 m elevation) and avoided areas with high road densities. Greater horseshoe bats were more generalist than lesser horseshoe bats which tended to be associated with broadleaved and mixed forests.

Conclusions

The spatially-explicit models obtained were proven crucial for prioritizing foraging habitats, roost sites and key corridors for conservation. Hence, our results are being used by key stakeholders to help integrate conservation measures into forest management and conservation planning at the regional level. The approach used can be integrated into conservation initiatives elsewhere.

Context

Methods for measuring restoration success that include functional connectivity between species’ populations are rare in landscape ecology and restoration practices. We developed an approach that analyzes connectivity between populations of target species and their dispersal probabilities to assess restoration success based on easily accessible input data. Applying this method to landscape development scenarios can help optimize restoration planning.

Objectives

We developed an assessment for restoration success and restoration planning based on functional connectivity between species’ populations and spatially explicit scenarios. The method was used in a case study to test its applicability.

Methods

Based on data on available habitat, species’ occurrence and dispersal ranges, connectivity metrics and dispersal probabilities for target species are calculated using the software Conefor Sensinode. The metrics are calculated for scenarios that reflect possible changes in the landscape to provide a basis for future restoration planning. We applied this approach to floodplain meadows along the Upper Rhine for four plant species and three future scenarios.

Results

In the case study, habitats of the target species were poorly connected. Peucedanum officinale and Sanguisorba officinalis were more successful in recolonizing new habitats than Iris spuria and Serratula tinctoria. The scenarios showed that restoration of species-rich grassland was beneficial for dispersal of the target species. As expected in the agriculturally dominated study area, restoration of former arable land significantly increased dispersal probabilities.

Conclusions

In the case study, the developed approach was easily applicable and provided reasonable results. Its implementation will be helpful in decision-making for future restoration planning.

Context

An increase in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide has prompted concerns about the resilience of forest ecosystems, particularly in the western U.S., where recent changes are linked with climate warming and 20th-century land management practices.

Objectives

To study forest resilience to recent wildfires, we examined relationships among fire legacies, landscape features, ecological conditions, and patterns of post-fire conifer regeneration.

Methods

We quantified regeneration across 182 sites in 21 recent large fires in dry mixed-conifer forests of the U.S. northern Rockies. We used logistic and negative binomial regression to predict the probability of establishment and abundance of conifers 5–13 years post-fire.

Results

Seedling densities varied widely across all sites (0–127,500 seedlings ha^?1) and were best explained by variability in distance to live seed sources (β = ?0.014, p = 0.002) and pre-fire tree basal area (β = 0.072, p = 0.008). Beyond 95 m from the nearest live seed source, the probability of seedling establishment was low. Across all the fires we studied, 75 % of the burned area with high tree mortality was within this 95-m threshold, suggesting the presence of live seed trees to facilitate natural regeneration.  

Conclusions

Combined with the mix of species present within the burn mosaic, dry mixed-conifer forests will be resilient to large fires across our study region, provided that seedlings survive, fire do not become more frequent, high-severity patches do not get significantly larger, and post-fire climate conditions remain suitable for seedling establishment and survival.

Context

Although small isolated habitat patches may not be able to maintain a minimum viable population, small patches that are structurally isolated may be functionally connected if individuals can cross the gaps between them, in which case, their areas could be added to form a larger habitat patch, eventually surpassing the size threshold for holding a viable population.

Objectives

We studied whether models based on the size and isolation of habitat patches could be used to predict the distribution of the Chestnut-throated Huet-Huet (Pteroptochos castaneus) in fragmented landscapes of the coastal range of the Maule region, central Chile.

Methods

We selected seven 10,000-ha landscapes (8.4–70.7% forest cover). For each habitat patch we made 18 predictions of the presence of the species based on the combination of two thresholds: three critical patch sizes for maintaining a viable population (62.5, 125 and 250 ha) and six critical isolation distances between patches (0, 10, 50, 100, 150 and 200 m). We used playbacks in 59 sampling points to estimate the species’ presence/absence. We used logistic regressions to test whether the output of the patch-matrix models could explain part of the variation in the presence of Pteroptochos castaneus.

Results

The best predictions for the presence of P. castaneus were obtained with the most conservative scenarios (125–250 ha to 0–10 m), including a positive effect of the understory cover and a lack of effect of the forest type (native or exotic).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the long term persistence of P. castaneus may depend on the existence of large and/or very connected forest tracts.

Context

The roosting habits of many temperate zone bats are well documented at microhabitat scales, but fewer studies have included multi-scale assessments of landscape patterns in bat roost site selection.

Objectives

To identify and assess at the landscape-scale the location of spring and early season maternity roosts of female northern long-eared bats (Myotis septentrionalis) from 2015 to 2016 at Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky, USA.

Methods

We used mist-nets and radiotelemetry to catch and track bats to roost trees across the landscape of MACA. Data on roosting sites were evaluated using spatial point pattern analysis to examine distributional trends of roosts. A variety of spatial covariates were used to model the effect of landscape pattern, including: forest type, elevation, and proximity to hibernacula, water, and road corridors.

Results

Data indicate that roost locations of female northern long-eared bats in MACA were typically situated within 2000 m of known winter hibernacula, occurring more often at higher elevations in mesic upland deciduous forests, and in close proximity to water sources and roads. We present hypotheses to account for the patterns observed in relation to landscape features and habitat resources in the Park.

Conclusions

Our data indicate that a more comprehensive understanding of habitat requirements which includes empirically-based, landscape-scale patterns, and not solely considerations at stand or local levels, could lead to better informed management policies targeting conservation of maternity habitat of forest-dwelling bats, including the northern long-eared bat, a species in decline throughout much of its distribution in North America.

Context

The classical theory of island biogeography explains loss of species in fragmented landscapes as an effect of remnant patch size and isolation. Recently this has been challenged by the habitat amount and habitat continuum hypotheses, according to which persistence in modified landscapes is related to total habitat amount rather than habitat configuration or the ability of species to use all habitats to varying degrees. Distinguishing between these theories is essential for effective conservation planning in modified landscapes.

Objective

Identify which factors of habitat type, amount and configuration predict the persistence of a keystone woodland specialist, the eastern bettong Bettongia gaimardi, in a fragmented landscape.

Method

In the Midlands region of Tasmania we carried out camera surveys at 62 sites in summer and winter. We included habitat and landscape features to model whether habitat amount or patch size and isolation influenced the presence of the eastern bettong, and to measure effects of habitat quality.

Results

Habitat amount within a 1 km buffer was a better predictor of occupancy than patch size and isolation. Occupancy was also affected by habitat quality, indicated by density of regenerating stems.

Conclusion

Our results support the habitat amount hypothesis as a better predictor of presence. For a species that is able to cross the matrix between remnant patches and utilise multiple patches, the island biogeography concept does not explain habitat use in fragmented landscapes. Our results emphasize the value of small remnant patches for conservation of the eastern bettong, provided those patches are in good condition.

Context

Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change.

Objectives

Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota.

Methods

Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years.

Results

Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.