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1.
The movements of animals were analysed under the conceptual framework of graph theory in mathematics. The swine production related premises of Denmark were considered to constitute the nodes of a network and the links were the animal movements. In this framework, each farm will have a network of other premises to which it will be linked. A premise was a farm (breeding, rearing or slaughter pig), an abattoir or a trade market. The overall network was divided in premise specific subnets that linked the other premises from and to which animals were moved. This approach allowed us to visualise and analyse the three levels of organization related to animal movements that existed in the Danish swine production registers: the movement of animals between two premises, the premise specific networks, and the industry network. The analyses of animal movements were done using these three levels of organisation. The movements of swine were studied for the period September 30, 2002 to May 22, 2003. For daily movements of swine between two slaughter pig premises, the median number of pigs moved was 130 pigs with a maximum of 3306. For movements between a slaughter pig premise and an abattoir, the median number of pigs was 24. The largest percentage of movements was from farm to abattoir (82.5%); the median number of pigs per movement was 24 and the maximum number was 2018. For the whole period the median and maximum Euclidean distances observed in farm-to-farm movements were 22 km and 289 km respectively, while in the farm-to-abattoir movements, they were 36.2 km and 285 km. The network related to one specific premise showed that the median number of premises was mainly away from slaughter pig farms (3) or breeder farms (26) and mainly to an abattoir (1535). The assumption that animal movements can be randomly generated on the basis of farm density of the surrounding area of any farm is not correct since the patterns of animal movements have the topology of a scale-free network with a large degree of heterogeneity. This supported the opinion that the disease spread software assuming homogeneity in farm-to-farm relationship should only be used for large-scale interpretation and for epidemic preparedness. The network approach, based on graph theory, can be used efficiently to express more precisely, on a local scale (premise), the heterogeneity of animal movements. This approach, by providing network knowledge to the local veterinarian in charge of controlling disease spread, should also be evaluated as a potential tool to manage epidemics during the crisis. Geographic information systems could also be linked in the approach to produce knowledge about local transmission of disease.  相似文献   

2.
Registration of cattle and pig movements is mandatory in Sweden and all registered movements between farms in the years 2006-2008 were investigated using network analysis. The networks were analysed as monthly and yearly networks, separately per species and with the two species together. Measures that have been previously discussed in relation to outbreaks and disease control were calculated; moreover a measure of the ingoing infection chain was constructed. The ingoing infection chain captures ingoing contacts through other holdings, taking the temporal aspect and sequence of the movements into account. The distribution of the contacts among the holdings was skewed. Many farms had few or no contacts, while others had many, a pattern which has also been described from other countries. The cattle network and the combined network showed a recurring seasonal pattern, while this was not seen in the pig network. The in-degree was not equivalent to the ingoing infection chain; there were holdings with limited direct contacts, but a large number of indirect contacts. The ingoing infection chain could be a useful measure when setting up strategies for disease control and for risk based surveillance as it identifies holdings with many contacts through live animal movements and thus at potentially higher risk for introduction of contagious diseases.  相似文献   

3.
Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in domestic pig herds lead to the implementation of standard control measures according to legislative regulations. Ideal outbreak control entails the swift and efficient culling of all pigs on premises detected positive for CSF virus. Often all pig holdings around the detected cases are pre-emptively destroyed to exclude transmission into the neighbourhood. In addition to these measures, zones are defined in which surveillance and protection measures are intensified to prevent further distant disease spread. In particular, all movements are prohibited within standstill areas. Standstill also excludes the transport of fattened pigs to slaughter. Historical outbreaks provide evidence of the success of this control strategy. However, the extent to which the individual strategy elements contribute to this success is unknown. Therefore, we applied a spatially and temporally explicit epidemic model to the problem. Its rule-based formulation is tailored to a one-by-one model implementation of existing control concepts. Using a comparative model analysis the individual contributions of single measures to overall control success were revealed. From the results of the model we concluded that movement restrictions had the dominant impact on strategy performance suggesting a reversal of the current conceptual thinking. Additional measures such as pre-emptive culling only became relevant under imperfect compliance with movement restrictions. The importance of movement restrictions for the overall control success illustrates the need for explicit consideration of this measure when contingency strategies are being amended (e.g. emergency vaccination) and associated risks assessed.  相似文献   

4.
The spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal features of the 2001 British foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in selected areas within the counties of Cumbria and Devon, which experienced the greatest incidence of disease, are described using hazard functions, extraction mapping and the space-time K-function. In Cumbria, the hazard of foot-and-mouth disease infection peaked at 2.8% in the week commencing 8 March 2001 and farm holdings in this area continued to be identified with disease to 12 September 2001. In contrast, peak infection hazard in Devon was 0.7% in the week commencing 15 March 2001 and eradication of the disease was achieved in this area by 31 May 2001. Persistence of the disease in Cumbria was consistent with: (1) many cattle holdings infected early in the epidemic (creating a high environmental viral load), and (2) a relatively large amount of medium-to-long-distance spread of the virus associated with seasonal farming activities-compounded to some extent by the movement of people and vehicles between disaggregated farm land parcels. The interaction of disease risk in Cumbria showed that premises remained infectious for longer throughout May, June and July, consistent with delays in disease detection during this period.  相似文献   

5.
Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were made during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the UK. The first outbreak, confirmed on February 20, was at an abattoir in Essex which specialised in the processing of culled sows and boars. On February 23, the disease was confirmed at a pig farm in Northumberland which held cull sows and boars fed on waste food; the findings indicated that it was the first of the five premises to be infected. The disease had probably been present since early February, and it was the most likely origin of the epidemic. The other premises investigated were a waste food-fed cull sow/boar pig unit in Essex, approximately 30 km from the abattoir, which was probably infected at the same time or before the abattoir, a sheep and cattle farm approximately 6 km from the Northumberland pig farm, which was probably infected by airborne virus from it in the period immediately before February 13, and a sheep and cattle farm in Devon which had clinical disease from February 20 and was probably infected by sheep transported from Northumberland on February 13 which arrived on February 15.  相似文献   

6.
From February 1997 till May 1998 the national reference laboratory for classical swine fever (CSF) in the Netherlands was confronted with millions of samples taken from pigs during an outbreak of CSF in a pig dense region. In a limited period major logistic problems needed to be solved regarding the processing of samples and information at the laboratory facilities.In total over 2.3 million samples were examined by different CSF diagnostic methods. The majority (approximately 2.1 million) of these samples were blood samples which were tested for CSF serum antibody in a semi-automated ELISA. Approximately 166,000 samples were examined for the presence of CSF virus or viral antigen. Automated preparation and testing of blood samples for CSF serum antibody, the obligatory identification and registration system of pig holdings and the computerised laboratory management system made it possible to process the huge amount of samples and information presented in a limited period. The majority of the test results was sent to the veterinary authorities via e-mail or a computerised fax system.Of the 429 outbreaks 82% were detected via a direct immunofluorescence technique performed on cryostat sections of the tonsil. The sampling of clinically suspected pigs ('guided' sampling) for this diagnostic method provided rapid positive and negative results and thus played a paramount role during the eradication campaign. Serological surveys identified 13.5% of the infected pig holdings: such surveys proved very effective in the screening of holdings which were subjected to restrictions (protection or surveillance zones) for many months. Virus isolation performed on different types of samples detected 4. 5% of the infected pig holdings.In conclusion, analysis of data collected in the laboratory and epidemiological analysis should result in an improved eradication plan for the future control of outbreaks of CSF in the Netherlands supported by optimised CSF diagnostic methods.  相似文献   

7.

Background

Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs.

Methods

Data on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated.

Results

Most movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias (digit preference) were detected in the data.

Conclusion

The databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.  相似文献   

8.
REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Equine grass sickness (EGS) occurs repeatedly on certain premises over time. Few studies have sought, or identified, the determinants of this phenomenon in order to inform advice on disease prevention strategies. HYPOTHESIS: Premises-level risk factors are important determinants of whether EGS occurs. METHODS: A matched case-control study was undertaken. Sixty premises giving rise to one or more histologically confirmed case of EGS and 120 time-matched control premises were sampled. Data were collected on pasture management, soil nutrient content, pasture nutrient content and local weather conditions for 2 weeks prior to the onset of disease. Data were analysed by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Multivariable modelling identified an association between EGS and increased soil nitrogen content, pasture disturbance and previous occurrence of EGS on the premises. None of the meteorological variables recorded in this study were significantly associated with EGS occurrence. No relationship between certain management practices (e.g. harrowing, fertilisation, reseeding) and the risk of EGS was detected. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: This information is useful in understanding the causal pathway of EGS and may be used in the formulation of evidence-based disease avoidance strategies.  相似文献   

9.
Within Great Britain cattle are often traded at regional markets, of which there are approximately 200 located throughout England, Scotland and Wales. The movement of animals through markets was important in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus during the 2001 GB outbreak. Here, we describe the movements of cattle to and from markets for 2002-2004 and, using social network analysis, we construct networks based on these movements. In 2002, 56,227 animal holdings (AH) sent cattle to 222 cattle auction markets, compared to 58,476 AH and 187 auction markets in 2004. Auction markets vary considerably in their trading with AH. The majority of markets received animals from less than 50 AH, but one received animals from as many as 6155 AH during a year. The distances travelled between origin AH and destination AH when cattle move "directly" were found to be significantly shorter compared to distances between origin and destination AH where the movement occurred via a market. However, the vast majority of distances moved, for both types of movements, were less than 50 km. Some auction markets appear as highly connected premises within the contact network and are associated with high betweenness scores. However AH also occupy positions central to the contact network. The variation in the characteristics and role of individual markets within the contact network suggests important differences in risk of disease transmission associated with each market. Inclusion of network parameters, when considering the risk associated with moving cattle through auction markets may enhance the development of effective targeted disease control strategies.  相似文献   

10.
A method to assess the influence of between herd distances, production types and herd sizes on patterns of between herd contacts is presented. It was applied on pig movement data from a central database of the Swedish Board of Agriculture. To determine the influence of these factors on the contact between holdings we used a Bayesian model and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters. The analysis showed that the contact pattern via animal movements is highly heterogeneous and influenced by all three factors, production type, herd size, and distance between holdings. Most production types showed a positive relationship between maximum capacity and the probability of both incoming and outgoing movements. In agreement with previous studies, holdings also differed in both the number of contacts as well as with what holding types contact occurred with. Also, the scale and shape of distance dependence in contact probability was shown to differ depending on the production types of holdings.To demonstrate how the methodology may be used for risk assessment, disease transmissions via animal movements were simulated with the model used for analysis of contacts, and parameterized by the analyzed posterior distribution. A Generalized Linear Model showed that herds with production types Sow pool center, Multiplying herd and Nucleus herd have higher risk of generating a large number of new infections. Multiplying herds are also expected to generate many long distance transmissions, while transmissions generated by Sow pool centers are confined to more local areas. We argue that the methodology presented may be a useful tool for improvement of risk assessment based on data found in central databases.  相似文献   

11.
For more than 40 years, AI (artificial insemination) has been carried out with pigs. In some countries, it constitutes since the 1990 s the dominant procedure with piglet production to fertilize the sow. This procedure of insemination with fresh semen has become prevalent in all countries on a worldwide basis with an important pig meat production, with the exception of China. Meanwhile, up to 90% of the sows have been artificially inseminated. The trend is still upwards. As the need of pig meat and thus the production continues to increase, one can proceed on the assumption that the number of semen doses, which is necessary for this procedure, will likewise increase correspondingly. Until now, the trade beyond borders has only been marginal. An improvement in the sense of a longer shelf life for semen doses is indispensable for the trade over longer distances.  相似文献   

12.
There are very few current data on the prevalence of Toxoplasma (T.) gondii in German pig farms. Consequently a reliable risk assessment of human Toxoplasmosis caused by ingesting raw or improperly cooked pork and pork products is not available. The aim of this study was to show current data on T. gondii prevalence in German pig farms. In four pig farms with different management systems (three conventional, one organic) 100 animals each were selected and tested for T. gondii antibodies. The test was done four times during the period from birth to slaughtering. In one farm 20 mother sows were tested additionally. The slaughtered pigs from conventional farms showed seroprevalences between 0 and 15.2% (mean value 5.6%). At the organic system T. gondii antibodies were not detected. All slaughtered seropositive pigs (6 months old) were tested negatively at the age of 9 weeks, but shortly after birth high titres of T. gondii antibodies had been detected in the same animals. Comparing the results gained in different seasons significantly more pigs were found to be infected during the autumn/winter than in the spring/summer period. In order to assess the current risk of Toxoplasmosis more pig farms should be tested. From the point of view of consumer protection the detection of highly infected pig herds is necessary.  相似文献   

13.
OBJECTIVE: To assess relative costs and benefits of vaccination and preemptive herd slaughter to control transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV). SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Direct costs associated with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning and disinfecting livestock premises, and vaccination were compared for various eradication strategies. Additional cost, total program cost, net benefit, and benefit-cost value (B/C) for each supplemental strategy were estimated, based in part on results of published model simulations for FMD. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean herd indemnity payments were estimated to be dollars 2.6 million and dollars 110,359 for dairy and nondairy herds, respectively. Cost to clean and disinfect livestock premises ranged from dollars 18,062 to dollars 60,205. Mean vaccination cost was dollars 2,960/herd. Total eradication cost ranged from dollars 61 million to dollars 551 million. All supplemental strategies involving use of vaccination were economically efficient (B/C range, 5.0 to 10.1) and feasible, whereas supplemental strategies involving use of slaughter programs were not economically efficient (B-C, 0.05 to 0.8) or feasible. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Vaccination with a highly efficacious vaccine may be a cost-effective strategy for control of FMD if vaccinated animals are not subsequently slaughtered and there is no future adverse economic impact, such as trade restrictions. Although less preferable than the baseline eradication program, selective slaughter of highest-risk herds was preferable to other preemptive slaughter strategies. However, indirect costs can be expected to contribute substantially more than direct costs to the total cost of eradication programs.  相似文献   

14.
Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks may result in huge economic losses to countries with densely populated pig areas (DPLAs). The EU minimum control measures require depopulation of infected farms, movement restrictions, zoning and surveillance (EU Minimum strategy). Emergency vaccination is authorised for DPLAs although the EU Minimum strategy plus culling in a 1-km ring around infected premises is preferred. Nonetheless, vaccination in a 2-km ring has been found equally effective as 1-km ring culling using stochastic modelling. Alternatives control measures (e.g. antiviral agents, in particular small molecule inhibitors of the CSFV replication) are being explored. Hence, the present study was set up to simulate inter-herd CSFV spread when antiviral molecules are supplemented to pig feed in a 1-km ring around infected farms. The effectiveness of the antiviral strategy for containing CSF outbreaks was compared to six other control scenarios including the EU Minimum strategy, the EU preferred policy for DPLAs and the use of 2-km ring vaccination. The InterSpread Plus model was adapted to the 2006 Belgian pig population and outbreak simulations were performed with a fast spreading CSFV strain entering a DPLA in Belgium. Four out of the seven control strategies resulted in outbreaks that were controlled by the end of the simulation period (i.e. 365 days). The distributions of the number of infected herds and the duration of the predicted outbreaks for these four control strategies were not different. This is the first report investigating CSF outbreak containment using antiviral molecules. Although antiviral supplementation was not found to perform any better than some other conventional strategies, such as pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination, it might be worthwhile considering it further as additional tool in a response to CSF outbreaks.  相似文献   

15.
After a short review of the size structure and the regional distribution of livestock holdings with cattle, pigs and poultry, the significance and distribution of those livestock holdings are presented, which according to their size and their density are excluded from certain national income compensations to German farmers because they are classified as not belonging to the farm sector proper by agricultural policy authorities. Compared to neighbouring member countries of the EC, the significance of these livestock holdings seems rather small. The introduction of the milk quota regime and the exclusion of larger livestock holdings from certain income compensations have retarded the process of structural change in livestock keeping since the middle of the 1980s. Among factors influencing the future development of the structure of livestock holdings, scientific and technical innovations in livestock breeding and husbandry as well as developments in the distribution of food will prevailingly intensify the tendencies of continuing concentration processes in livestock holdings whereas environmental legislation and agricultural price and market policies will probably counteract these tendencies.  相似文献   

16.
Trade patterns of animal movements in a specific industry are complex and difficult to study because there are many stakeholders, premises that are heterogeneously spread over the country, and a highly dynamic flow of animals exists among them. The Danish cattle industry was defined as a network of animal movements and graph theory was used to analyse the movements of cattle within this network. A premise was defined as a farm, an abattoir or a market. These premises constituted the network nodes in the graph and the animal movements between them were the links. In this framework, each premise had a sub-network of other premises to which it was linked by these animal movements. If no movement of animals were registered for a specific farm, then the sub-network for that premise consisted of only that premise. Otherwise, the sub-network linked the premise of interest to all premises from which and to which animals were moved, as long as there was a path linking animal movements to that specific premise. This approach allowed visualization and analyses of four levels of organization that existed in Denmark animal registers: (1) the animal that was moved, (2) the movements of all animals between two premises, (3) the specific premise network, and (4) the overall industry network. When contagious animals are moved from one premise to another, then to a third and so forth, these movements create a path for potential transfer of pathogens. The paths within which pathogens are present identify the transmission risks. A network of animal movements should provide information about pathogen transmission and disease spread. The network of the Danish cattle industry network was a directed scale-free graph (the direction of a movement was known), with an in-degree power of 2 an out-degree power of 1.46, consisted of 29,999 nodes, and 130,265 movements during a 6-month period. The in clustering coefficient was calculated to be 0.52 for the inward direction (movement to), while it was 0.02 for the outward direction (movement from). In Denmark, the cattle movements between premises demonstrated a large degree of heterogeneity. This heterogeneity in movements between farms should be used to evaluate the risk potential of disease transmission for each premise and must be considered when modelling disease spread between premises. The objective of this research was to describe the network of animal movements and not just the animal movements per se.  相似文献   

17.
Salmonellosis is one of the major zoonotic, food-borne diseases, among others, caused by pig derived food products. As infected pigs are one of the main sources of the introduction of the bacterium into the food chain, scientific research in the last years has focussed on identifying risk factors for infection as well as developing mitigation strategies on this level of production. In order to update the knowledge of the German situation by incorporating recent changes in the German pig industry, a case-control study was set up to identify the key contributing risk factors for farms located in the western part of Lower Saxony, the region with the highest pig density in Germany. Based on an extensive and systematic literature search, a comprehensive questionnaire with 302 questions concerning such topics as personnel hygiene, animal management, biosecurity, feeding management as well as cleaning and disinfection routines was utilized in a face-to-face interview on 104 case and 67 control farms. Within a stepwise forward selection process the preliminary identified factors were grouped contextually, associations between variables were calculated and multivariable logistic regression models were conducted. Identified risk factors were: the moving of individual animals during the fattening period (OR 5.3, CI 95% 1.35-20.35), not having a separate transporter for different age groups (OR 11.4, CI 95% 1.94-66.18) and pigs having contact to other animals (OR 4.3, CI 95% 1.39-12.96). The following factors were identified as being protective: not cleaning the transporter (OR 0.2, CI 95% 0.05-0.72) and not having clean boots available (OR 0.2, CI 95% 0.07-0.64). While this study was able to identify some factors which influence the Salmonella-infection of a herd, overall the process of analysis showed that the control of Salmonella on farm is due to a series of individual factors and therefore remains extremely complex.  相似文献   

18.
Two alternative emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine that could have been applied in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic were evaluated in a modified spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model: InterCSF. In strategy 1, vaccination would be applied only to overcome a shortage in destruction capacities. Destruction of all pigs on vaccinated farms distinguishes this strategy from strategy 2, which assumes intra-Community trade of vaccinated pig meat. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and three contact types. Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms. Economic results were generated by a separate model that calculated the direct costs (including the vaccination costs) and consequential losses for farmers and related industries subjected to control measures. The comparison (using epidemiological and economic results) between the different emergency-vaccination strategies with an earlier simulated preventive-slaughter scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF epidemic. Both emergency-vaccination strategies were hardly more efficient than the non-vaccination scenario. The intra-Community trade strategy (vaccination-strategy 2) was the least costly of all three scenarios.  相似文献   

19.
20.
Backyard pig populations are not monitored for influenza A virus (IAV) in Brazil and there are limited data about seroprevalence and risk factors in these populations. Our goal was to assess possible factors associated with IAV seroprevalence in backyard pig populations using an indirect ELISA protocol based on a recombinant nucleoprotein. Following the IAV screening using NP‐ELISA, subtype‐specific serology based on hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay of the ELISA‐positive pigs was conducted. The survey comprised a total of 1,667 sera samples collected in 2012 and 2014 in 479 holdings and the estimated seroprevalence was 5.3% (3.84%–7.33%) and 2.3% (1.34%–3.71%) in the respective years. In both years, H1N1pdm09 was the most prevalent subtype. The multivariable analysis showed main factors such as “age,” “sex,” “number of suckling pigs” and “neighbours raising pigs” that presented the greatest effect on IAV seroprevalence in these pig populations. These factors may be associated with the low biosecurity measures and management of backyard holdings. In addition, the low IAV seroprevalences found in these backyard pig populations could be related to a low number of animals in each pig holding and low animal movement/replacement that do not favour IAV transmission dynamics. This low frequency of H1N1pdm09 seropositive pigs could also be due to sporadic human‐to‐pig transmission of what is now a human seasonal influenza A virus; however, these factors should be explored in future studies. Herein, these results highlight the importance of IAV continued surveillance in backyard pig holdings, since it is poorly known which IAVs are circulating in these populations and the risk they could pose to public health and virus transmission to commercial farms.  相似文献   

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