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1.
A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.  相似文献   

2.
OBJECTIVE: To assess relative costs and benefits of vaccination and preemptive herd slaughter to control transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV). SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Direct costs associated with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning and disinfecting livestock premises, and vaccination were compared for various eradication strategies. Additional cost, total program cost, net benefit, and benefit-cost value (B/C) for each supplemental strategy were estimated, based in part on results of published model simulations for FMD. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean herd indemnity payments were estimated to be dollars 2.6 million and dollars 110,359 for dairy and nondairy herds, respectively. Cost to clean and disinfect livestock premises ranged from dollars 18,062 to dollars 60,205. Mean vaccination cost was dollars 2,960/herd. Total eradication cost ranged from dollars 61 million to dollars 551 million. All supplemental strategies involving use of vaccination were economically efficient (B/C range, 5.0 to 10.1) and feasible, whereas supplemental strategies involving use of slaughter programs were not economically efficient (B-C, 0.05 to 0.8) or feasible. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Vaccination with a highly efficacious vaccine may be a cost-effective strategy for control of FMD if vaccinated animals are not subsequently slaughtered and there is no future adverse economic impact, such as trade restrictions. Although less preferable than the baseline eradication program, selective slaughter of highest-risk herds was preferable to other preemptive slaughter strategies. However, indirect costs can be expected to contribute substantially more than direct costs to the total cost of eradication programs.  相似文献   

3.
An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals (‘stamping out’), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.  相似文献   

4.
OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.  相似文献   

5.
A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible–infectious–recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.  相似文献   

6.
Using the stochastic and spatial simulation model of between-farm spread of disease, InterSpread Plus, we evaluated the effect of alternative strategies for controlling the 2002 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Republic of Korea. InterSpread Plus was parameterised to simulate epidemics of FMD in the population of farms containing susceptible animal species in the Korean counties of Yongin, Icheon, Pyongtaek, Anseong, Eumseong, Asan, Cheonan, and Jincheon. The starting point of our analyses was the simulation of a reference strategy, which approximated the real epidemic. The results of simulations of alternative epidemic-control strategies were compared with this reference strategy. Ring vaccination (when used with either limited or extended pre-emptive depopulation) reduced both the size and variability of the predicted number of infected farms. Reducing the time between disease incursion and commencement of controls had the greatest effect on reducing the predicted number of infected farms.  相似文献   

7.
OBJECTIVE: To determine i) the prevalence of lesions at the site of vaccination with Gudair, and ii) the incidence of discounting of slaughtered sheep carcasses due to the presence of these lesions. DESIGN: A survey of the prevalence of injection lesions and actual discounts applied to 20 consignments of vaccinates slaughtered in abattoirs in New South Wales. PROCEDURE: Consignments of sheep previously vaccinated against ovine Johne's disease (OJD) were assessed on the slaughter chain for the prevalence of vaccination site lesions and any costs associated with carcass trimming were estimated. In addition a telephone survey was conducted to determine the experiences and risk attitudes of 8 abattoirs in south east New South Wales likely to have previously processed vaccinates. RESULTS: The prevalence of lesions observed was 18% for adult (mutton) and 65% for lamb carcasses. The value of the trim removed was insignificant, the labour cost of its removal was nil and no carcass was downgraded to a lower value grade. CONCLUSION: Under the market conditions existing at the time the study was conducted, in sheep vaccinated at the recommended site high on the neck, it is unlikely that OJD vaccination site lesions will be a significant cost to producers or the processing industry and will represent only a very small proportion of the total cost of OJD control by vaccination.  相似文献   

8.
The efficient management of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in France was examined through a simulation model which combines epidemiological and economic modules. From the reactions of the importing countries in terms of the products subject to import bans and the regionalization commitments, the economic module assesses the financial consequences of FMD outbreaks borne not only by the breeding sector but also by the other economic sectors on regional and national levels. Among the control options for FMD, the strategy of stamping out infected herds and dangerous in-contact herds most often contributes to reducing the economic consequences of FMD epidemics. Implementing a campaign of emergency vaccination is socially optimal if the additional export losses associated with the delay of slaughtering the vaccinated animals are offset by the gains of reducing the duration of the FMD epidemic. The importance of reducing as much as possible the total duration of the import bans is stressed by the estimated cost of an extra week of import bans. The optimal control strategy was unaffected by the introduction of stochastic parameters.  相似文献   

9.
Between March and July 1997, a devastating outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, occurred in pigs in Taiwan. A total of 6,147 pig farms with more than 4 million pigs were infected, and 37.7 per cent of the pigs in Taiwan either died (0.18 million pigs) or were killed (3.85 million pigs). The epidemic reached its peak during the fifth week after it was first recognised. During the eighth and ninth weeks, a two-dose blanket vaccination programme was instituted which led to a large reduction in new outbreaks. Except for two cities, the whole of Taiwan was declared an FMD-infected zone. During the four months in which new farm outbreaks occurred, 21.7 per cent of the pigs on infected farms showed clinical signs, and there was an overall mortality of 3.95 per cent. During the early stages of the epidemic, the incubation period was as short as 24 hours and the case fatality rates for suckling piglets reached 100 per cent. The financial cost of the epidemic was estimated at US$ 378.6 million, including indemnities, vaccines, carcase disposal plus environmental protection, miscellaneous expenses, and loss of market value. Owing to the ban on exports of pork to Japan, it is estimated that the total economic cost to Taiwan's pig industry will be about US$ 1.6 billion.  相似文献   

10.
During a recent foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina, cattle herds affected in 2001 were located mainly (69%) in Buenos Aires province. The densities of outbreaks (no. of outbreaks per km2) and cattle-demographic variables in the province were estimated using a geographical information system and kernel function. Before the epidemic officially was recognized, the density of outbreaks was correlated (rsp = 0.28–0.47) with the geographic distribution of small (≤100 cattle), dairy and fattening herds. During the mass-vaccination campaign to control the epidemic (April–July), the density of outbreaks was most strongly correlated (rsp = 0.20–0.25) with the distribution of large (>500 cattle) and breeding herds. After the end of the mass-vaccination campaign, large herds and number of cows were most strongly correlated (rsp = 0.16–0.26) with outbreak density. These relationships might indicate that: (1) the disease spread more rapidly or was more easily detected in intensive production systems at the beginning of the epidemic; (2) vaccination and other control methods applied were less effective in large, semi-intensive production systems; (3) incomplete vaccine protection was responsible for herd outbreaks that occurred after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign.  相似文献   

11.
Intraherd transmission of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) was examined using a simulation model for a hypothetical 1,000-cow dairy, assuming clinical diagnosis was made when at least 1% (10 cows) or 5% (50 cows) had clinical signs of FMD, I index case cow, and transition state distributions for the latent, subclinically infectious, and clinically infectious periods of FMD calculated from published data. Estimates assumed for the number of animal-to-animal contacts (k) adequate for transmission ranged from 0.6 to 9.0 per hour (13.7-216.0 per day). A total of 40,000 iterations (5,000 for each scenario, assessing 4 adequate contact rates and 2 detection criteria) were run. The model predicted that FMD would not be diagnosed in the herd until 10.0-13.5 days after the index case cow had become infected, at which time between 65% and 97% of the cows (646-967 cows) to nearly 100% (978-996 cows) would already have become infected with the virus, if the number of cows showing clinical signs of FMD at the time of diagnosis were 10 or 50, respectively. At the time of diagnosis, the simulated number of infectious cattle varied substantially from 82-472 to 476-537 cows, depending on adequate contact rate and whether the diagnosis was made when 10 or 50 animals were showing clinical signs, respectively. The simulated number of infectious cows increased rapidly during the first few days after diagnosis. In the scenario where at least 10 cows showing clinical signs was necessary before a clinical diagnosis was made, each day after diagnosis, the number of infectious animals increased by nearly 100 to more than 200 cases per day up to day 5, assuming 0.57-9.0 animal-to-animal contacts per hour, respectively. Results obtained when it was assumed that at least 50 clinical cases were present at the time of diagnosis showed smaller relative increases because nearly one-half of the herd was projected to be infected at the time of diagnosis. From these results, it is clear that once an individual in a herd becomes infected with FMDV, herd infectivity is not static, rather it accelerates as would be expected as long as there are sufficient susceptible animals to sustain the increasing transmission rate, after which time the rate at which new infections occurs will diminish. Results indicate that biosecurity strategies aimed at minimizing both intraherd and interherd contact will be critical in minimizing the spread of FMD before the initial diagnosis is made. In addition, simulations suggest that very early clinical diagnosis of FMD and effective isolation or depopulation and disposal will be critical in limiting the number of infectious animals capable of transmitting the virus to other herds and thus in timely control of an epidemic. Early diagnosis will rely on early virus detection from animals in the preclinical phase of infection, rather than waiting for clinical signs to manifest in sufficient numbers to be noticed and to warrant investigation.  相似文献   

12.
A control and eradication programme for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was initiated on a 1500-sow farm in Asia as an alternative to mass culling. The programme was based on mass vaccination and exposure to FMD virus to ensure the development of effective immunity throughout the population. Pigs are not long-term carriers of FMD virus and it should be eliminated by 21 days after infection. Entry of breeding stock was temporarily halted and the sow herd was partially depopulated in order to create a buffer between the infected and uninfected animals. After exposure to the virus and partial depopulation, the virus was eliminated through unidirectional pig flow and strict all-in/all-out procedures, and by thorough cleaning and disinfection of the buildings. Twelve months after the initial outbreak, the eradication plan was completed and successful. In parallel with the eradication programme, a small-scale isolated weaning project was carried out with the sow population that was moved out of the affected farm; 708 piglets were weaned to a separate facility 300 m away. No clinical signs of FMD were observed and the piglets remained serologically negative.  相似文献   

13.
Vaccination of susceptible animals against foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a well established strategy for helping to combat the disease. Traditionally, FMD vaccine has been used to control a disease incursion in countries where the disease has been endemic rather than in countries considered free of the disease. In 2001, the use of vaccine was considered but not implemented in the United Kingdom (1), whereas vaccine was used to help to control FMD in The Netherlands (2,3). Canadian contingency plans provide for the use of vaccine; Canada is a member of the North American Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine Bank, which could supply vaccine if needed. This article explains why Canada might use FMD vaccine to combat an outbreak and the factors that are relevant to the disposal of vaccinated animals and their products. It concludes that vaccination is an important mechanism in Canada's preparedness for an outbreak of FMD and that products from vaccinated animals are safe for human consumption.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R0) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R0 was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.  相似文献   


15.
Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from January 1982 through December 2003 were used to examine variations in serotype- and species-specific risk for three control programmes in Colombia:(1982–1983) vaccination, using an aluminium hydroxide, saponin adjuvant, required but not enforced; (1984–1996) vaccination, using an oil double-emulsion adjuvant, required but not enforced; and (1997–2003) enforced vaccination, using an oil double-emulsion adjuvant, restricted animal movement enforced, and slaughter of infected animals. Hypotheses were tested for trend, cyclicity and seasonality in FMD occurrence, and for species- and serotype-specific differences in morbidity and case-fatality. The spatial density of outbreaks was estimated by kernel smoothing. The frequency of outbreaks decreased most between 1984 and 1996 (p < 0.01) for serotype A and between 1997 and 2003 (p < 0.01) for serotype O. Outbreaks occurred in cycles of 3–4 years for both serotypes (p < 0.05). Morbidity was not significantly different in pigs from that in cattle for serotype A-associated outbreaks (p = 0.314), but was higher in pigs than in cattle (p = 0.019) for serotype O-associated outbreaks. For both serotypes, case-fatality was higher for pigs than for cattle (p < 0.009). Temporal variation in FMD incidence provided insight into the expected evolution of FMD control for countries with similar conditions and where FMD is endemic.  相似文献   

16.
A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (RH) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and <1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be >1 year.  相似文献   

17.
The simulation model InterCSF was developed to simulate the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–98 as closely as possible. InterCSF is a spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model. The outcomes of the various replications give an estimate of the variation in size and duration of possible CSF-epidemics. InterCSF simulates disease spread from an infected farm to other farms through three contact types (animals, vehicles, persons) and through local spread up to a specified distance. The main disease-control mechanisms that influence the disease spread in InterCSF are diagnosis of the infected farms, depopulation of infected farms, movement-control areas, tracing, and pre-emptive slaughter. InterCSF was developed using InterSpread as the basis. InterSpread was developed for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This paper describes the process of modifying InterSpread into InterCSF. This involved changing the assumptions and mechanisms for disease spread from FMD to CSF. In addition, CSF-specific control measures based on the standard European Union (EU) regulations were included, as well as additional control measures that were applied during the Dutch epidemic. To adapt InterCSF as closely as possible to the Dutch 1997/98 epidemic, data from the real epidemic were analysed. Both disease spread and disease-control parameters were thus specifically based on the real epidemic. In general, InterSpread turned out to be a flexible tool that could be adapted to simulate another disease with relative ease. The most difficult were the modifications necessary to mimic the real epidemic as closely as possible. The model was well able to simulate an epidemic with a similar pattern over time for number of detected farms as the real outbreak; but the absolute numbers were (despite many relevant modifications) not exactly the same — but were within an acceptable range. Furthermore, the development of InterCSF provided the researchers with a better insight into the existing knowledge gaps. In part II (see the final paper in this issue), InterCSF was used to compare various control strategies as applied to this epidemic.  相似文献   

18.
The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.  相似文献   

19.
Foot-and-mouth disease eradication efforts in the Republic of Korea   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文
On March 20, 2000, a suspected vesicular disease in cattle was reported to the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service (NVRQS) of the Republic of Korea. This represented the index case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, which spread through several provinces. The Republic of Korea had been free of FMD for 66 years prior to the reintroduction of the virus and had recently suspended imports of pork and pork products from neighboring Japan owing to a reported FMD outbreak in that country. The Korean outbreak was ultimately controlled through the combination of preemptive slaughter, animal movement restrictions, and a strategy of ring vaccination. The purpose of this paper is to review the current FMD situation in Korea in the aftermath of its 2000 epizootic and how it may affect future efforts to eradicate or reduce risk of reintroduction of the disease into Korea.  相似文献   

20.
We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P = 0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25 km2 cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.  相似文献   

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