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1.
The feeding of meat-and-bone meal (MBM) derived from cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a major source of BSE infection. The risks of BSE infection via MBM in Japan were examined quantitatively to estimate infectivity to cattle via MBM derived from a single clinically infected animal being rendered. Three routes of exposure were modeled: (i) feeding cattle concentrates containing MBM as an ingredient, (ii) feeding cattle concentrates contaminated with MBM from non-ruminant feed at feed plants and (iii) directly feeding MBM in supplemental form to cattle on farms. The effectiveness of measures designed to restrict the feeding of ruminants with ruminant MBM (feed restriction) as well as differences in the risk of exposure among regions were examined using the model.

The model revealed that the median total infectivity fed to dairy cattle via MBM derived from one infected animal was approximately 0.49 cattle oral ID50 (5th percentile = 0.43 ID50, 95th percentile = 0.54 ID50). This value was reduced by 55% after the addition of MBM to cattle concentrates was restricted in 1996. The risk of exposure in dairy cattle was twice that in beef cattle. Comparisons of regional differences in exposure risk indicated that the risk was highest in a region where 14 of the 20 BSE cases reported to date were born. Our model suggested that the routes of exposure via MBM were unlikely to result in increased propagation of BSE in Japan. Furthermore, despite some regional variation, the risk of exposure declined further after the feed restriction was imposed in 1996.  相似文献   


2.
With the objective of evaluating the effectiveness of an administrative guidance on the use of ruminant meat-and-bone meal in ruminant feed, effective from April 1996 to September 2001, we developed a model to simulate the evolution of the BSE epidemic and to estimate the BSE multiplication factor (K) in the Japanese dairy population. The output that provided the best fit to the number of BSE cases both observed and predicted to date suggest that the probability that bovine MBM was fed back to cattle was 14.2-75.2% and 0.129-0.570% during the periods from 1992 to April 1996 and from April 1996 to October 2001, respectively. Given these estimates, the value of K would have peaked in 1995 at 40-48 and then declined to 0.32-0.67 between 1997 and 2001. These results suggest that the administrative guidance was effective in reducing the amount of MBM fed to cattle by a factor of 104-141 and was perhaps enough to drive the epidemic towards extinction.  相似文献   

3.
Cross-contamination of cattle feed with meat and bone meal (MBM) allowed in feed for other species is regarded as the current hypothesis for the infection pathway of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) cases occurring after the implementation of a ban on feeding MBM to cattle. This study was aimed at establishing a spatial relation between BSE cases in Switzerland and the findings of MBM in cattle feed. A cluster analysis and a cohort study were performed. Two hundred sixteen BSE cases born after December 1990 and detected until August 1st 2005, screening data of 504 feed producers between 1996 and 2001 and population data from the Swiss 2001 cattle census were included. The cluster analysis showed feed producer, positive for MBM contaminations in cattle feed, as possible cluster centres for BSE cases. In the cohort study, farms within a radius of 2 and 10 km around positive feed producers showed significantly higher odds to have a BSE case than the control group. The odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval were 2.23 (1.26-3.93) for the 2 km radius and 1.38 (1-1.9) for the 10 km radius. The results provide evidence for a spatial relation between cross-contamination and BSE occurrence. These findings support the hypothesis of cross-contamination to be an important route for BSE transmission after a feed ban.  相似文献   

4.
The paper describes how the comprehensive surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and studies carried out on these data has enhanced our knowledge of the epidemiology of BSE. Around 7, 000 BSE cases were detected through the screening of about 50 million cattle with rapid tests in Europe. It confirmed that the clinical surveillance had a poor capacity to detect cases, and also showed the discrepancy of this passive surveillance efficiency between regions and production types (dairy/beef). Other risk factors for BSE were being in a dairy herd (three times more than beef), having a young age at first calving (for dairy cattle), being autumn-born (dairy and beef), and being in a herd with a very high milk yield. These findings focus the risk on the feeding regimen of calves/heifers. Several epidemiological studies across countries suggest that the feedborne source related to meat and bone meal (MBM) is the only substantiated route of infection - even after the feed ban -, while it is not possible to exclude maternal transmission or milk replacers as a source of some infections. In most European countries, the average age of the cases is increasing over time and the prevalence decreasing, which reflects the effectiveness of control measures. Consistent results on the trend of the epidemic were obtained using back-calculation modelling, the R(0) approach and Age-Period-Cohort models. Furthermore, active surveillance also resulted in the finding of atypical cases. These are distinct from previously found BSE and classified in two different forms based on biochemical characteristics; their prevalence is very low (36 cases up to 1st September 2007), affected animals were old and some of them displayed clinical signs. The origin and possibility of natural transmission is unknown.  相似文献   

5.
A spatio-temporal analysis was carried out to see how the risk distribution of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France changed depending on the period of birth. The data concerned the 539 BSE cases born in France after the ban (BAB) of meat and bone meal (MBM) in 1990 and detected between July 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance of BSE was comprehensive. Seventy-two of these cases were born after the reinforced (second) ban (BASB) in 1996, which involved the removal of BSE-risk materials and cadavers from the processing of MBM. The Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) time and space cluster test was applied, after classifying the cases by trimester and region of birth, BAB or BASB status, and dairy or beef status. Then disease mapping was performed for four successive birth periods, three for the BAB cases (January 1991 through June 1994, July 1994 through June 1995, July 1995 through June 1996), and one for the BASB (July 1996 through October 1998). It was elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The main finding was that the areas with the highest risk of BSE changed largely from one birth period to another; from the west, it reached the east of France for birth cohort 1994-1995 and the southwest for birth cohort 1995-1996. The EMM test identified a peak risk in this region both for dairy and beef cattle in the fall 1995. The spatial distribution of the risk for the BASB cases matched the spatial pattern of risk for the preceding BAB birth cohort quite well; this was in favour of a common origin of the infection of the BAB and BASB cases, despite the complementary control measures.  相似文献   

6.
In France, meat-and-bone meal (MBM) has been prohibited for cattle feeding since 1990, but bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases, called 'NAIF', appeared in animals born after this feed ban. Furthermore, in 1996 a new measure was taken: removal of cadavers and specified risk materials (SRM) from the processing of MBM dedicated to animal feed. Nevertheless, BSE cases (called 'super-NAIF') appeared in cattle born after this measure was in force. We analysed the spatial distribution of 445 'NAIF' and 58 'super-NAIF' cases detected in France from July 1, 2001 to July 31, 2003. The detection of BSE was based both on the mandatory reporting system (MRS) and the systematic test screening of cattle at the abattoir and at the fallen-animal plant with rapid tests. The background population was based on the adult-cow census. The disease mapping of the BSE risk was based on the standardised incidence ratio (stochastic Poisson process). A spatial component, which takes into account the spatial dependence between the geographical units by a notion of adjacency was used to eliminate the over-dispersion in the risk assessment. The geographical units were defined by hexagons with a side of 23km (France had 1264 hexagons). The parameters were estimated by a Metropolis Gibbs sampling algorithm using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. The BSE cases were not randomly distributed. Furthermore, the areas at risk for the 'super-NAIF' matched part of the areas at risk for the 'NAIF' cases-which suggests that it might be a common source of contamination.  相似文献   

7.
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8.
An assessment was made of the risks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) occurring in Argentina. Most of the factors associated with the origin and development of the BSE epidemic in the UK are essentially absent. For example, Argentina's large sheep and cattle industries are based on low-cost production systems using grass. Concentrated feeds are not used for sheep, rarely for beef cattle and to a comparatively modest extent for dairy cows. Particularly important are the facts that scrapie (and BSE) has never been reported in Argentina—very small amounts of waste tissues from sheep are rendered to produce meat and bone meal (MBM)—and MBM is not used in concentrated feeds for cattle. We conclude that Argentina has an exceptionally low risk of BSE due to scrapie. There is a very small risk of BSE having been introduced via live animals imported from countries with BSE, but this could only give rise to isolated cases because MBM is not fed to cattle.

A surveillance programme has been carried out based largely on a histological examination of brains from three categories of old dairy cows: animals reported on the suspicion of having neurological disease; animals in poor condition at slaughter; healthy animals randomly selected in the abattoir. No evidence of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy was seen in several sections from each of a total of 1019 brains. We conclude that, for most practical purposes, Argentina may be considered to be free from BSE.  相似文献   


9.
It has been recommended that meat-and-bone meal (MBM) be incinerated at 850 °C for at least 2 s and the ashes and slag disposed of in controlled landfills, to dispose of animal-derived proteins. Most commonly, the MBM is incinerated in cement works or coal-fired power plants and the ashes and slag are incorporated into the cement or concrete.

Our goal was to assess with a Monte Carlo simulation model the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) risk to cattle and humans posed by the ash and slag. The results will be used by decision makers to evaluate the need for disposal of the fly ash in controlled landfills and the feasibility of use of the ash by the phosphate and fertilizer industries.

We assumed that all specified risk material (SRM) and MBM produced in Denmark would be incinerated in this gas-fired power plant. Based on observations in 2001, we assumed that, on average, six (range: 0–15) clinical BSE cases each year were rendered into MBM and incinerated. In addition, SRM or carcasses from 0 to 31 (median = 10) BSE-infected-but-undetected animals/BSE case were also incinerated.

The simulations were run on a 1-week basis. Our results suggest that if the slag is collected and re-incinerated the median BSE infectivity remaining in the fly ash per week would be 3.1E−11 cattle ID50. A cattle ID50 is the amount of infectivity that will cause infection in 50% of cattle exposed to it. During the weeks when BSE was infected in the SRM-MBM, the median infectivity in the fly ash was estimated as 8.7E−10 cattle ID50 and 2.9E−12 human ID50. The 95th percentiles were 2.1E−08 cattle ID50 and 5.8E−10 human ID50, respectively. One ton of fly ash would contain ≤1.8E−07 cattle ID50 95% of the time. These are the potential exposures of the cattle or human populations. The potential exposures of individuals are far less.  相似文献   


10.
In Spain, the first bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case was detected in 2000 in a cow born in the Galicia region (Northwestern Spain). From then and until October 2005, 590 cases were detected, 223 of them in Galicia.

In 1994, meat and bone meal (MBM) was banned on ruminant feed and, in 1996, an EU decision mandating an overall change in MBM processing was implemented. This decision was gradually applied in the territory and not enforced before July 1998. The objective of this study was to explore clustering of BSE cases and estimate the standard incidence ratio (SIR) of BSE in Galicia. Our study was based on the BSE cases detected during the surveillance period 2000–2005 in the Galicia region. These cases were divided, based on birth date, into two periods: animals born from 1994 to July 1998, and those born after July 1998. We tested the role of cross-contamination on the geographical SIR distribution for both periods. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the overdispersion and lack of independence of the SIR estimates. The geographical distribution of the standard incidence ratio of BSE between both periods was different. In the second period, the SIR was reduced in some areas. The reduction in these areas could be attributable to the changes in the processing of MBM. We did not find any statistical link between the poultry population and the standard incidence ratio, but pig population had a positive effect.  相似文献   


11.
A bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) testing programme at the abattoir started in 2001 in France. A total of 5 281 293 bovines were tested in 2001 and 2002; 87 were found positive in 2001--37 per million (95% CI 30-46)--, whereas only 71 in 2002--24 per million (95% CI 19-30). Logistic regression models were run to compare the prevalence of BSE on successive birth cohorts, using a pair-wise method of controlling for age at testing; the prevalence on the first one, determined on animals slaughtered in 2001, was compared to the prevalence on the following one determined on animals slaughtered in 2002. Five models were performed in order to compare the birth cohorts preceding and following the months of June 1993 (i.e. July 92-June 93 birth cohort compared to July 93-June 94 birth cohort) (8.5 years old cattle), June 1994 (7.5 years old cattle), June 1995 (6.5 years old cattle), June 1996 (5.5 years old cattle) and June 1997 (4.5 years old cattle). The models were adjusted for the production type of cattle and the test used. The results showed a significant increase (OR = 2.31, 95% CI 1.08-4.9) of the BSE prevalence between the July 93-June 94 and July 94-June 95 cohorts, and then a significant decrease over the next two birth cohorts; the July 95-June 96 birth cohort was significantly less affected than the July 94-June 95 one (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.27-0.78), and the July 96-June 97 birth cohort was significantly less affected than the July 95-June 96 one (OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.37). The increase in BSE prevalence between the July 93-June 94 and July 94-June 95 cohorts was in agreement with modelling studies, but needs to be confronted to the data on fallen stock at the national level. The decrease in BSE prevalence on the birth cohorts born after June 1995 was in agreement with the findings on the fallen stock in the western part of France and matches the implementation of the removal of specified risk materials (SRM) and dead animals from the processing of meat and bone meal (MBM) since June 1996.  相似文献   

12.
Immediately after the detection of the first case of BSE in 2001, the Japanese government introduced active surveillance targeting fallen-stock and all cattle slaughtered for human consumption. By the end of 2004, four million animals were tested with rapid tests under the passive and active surveillance. As a result 13 additional cases were detected. I focused on the 1996 birth cohort, in which nine cases of BSE were detected during 2001–2004, and estimated the prevalence of BSE infection of that birth cohort using maximum-likelihood methods. Using the estimated prevalence of infection as an input variable, I calculated the adjusted incidence risk of BSE by different ages and risk subpopulations (clinical-suspects, fallen-stock, sick-slaughter and healthy-slaughter animals). The adjusted incidence risk of BSE in sick-slaughter animals (animals showing clinical signs not compatible with BSE when slaughtered for human consumption) was 18.7 and 4.5–78.4 times higher than the incidence risk in fallen-stock and healthy-slaughter animals, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
The objectives of this study were first to describe the pattern of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain in terms of the temporal change in the proportion of all cattle holdings that had experienced at least one confirmed case of BSE to June 30, 1997, and secondly to identify risk factors that influenced the date of onset of a holding's first confirmed BSE case. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and the BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was the cattle holding and included all those recorded at least once on annual agricultural censuses conducted between June 30, 1986, and June 30, 1996. The outcome of interest was the date on which clinical signs were recorded in a holding's first confirmed case of BSE, termed the BSE onset date. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to describe the temporal pattern of the epidemic. The BSE epidemic in Great Britain started in November 1986, with the majority of affected holdings having their BSE onset date after February 1992. After adjusting for the effect of the size and type of holding, holdings in the south of England (specifically those in the Eastern, South east and South west regions) had 2.22 to 2.43 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.07 to 2.58) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings in Scotland. After adjusting for the effect of region and type of holding, holdings with more than 53 adult cattle had 5.91 (95 per cent CI 5.62 to 6.21) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings with seven to 21 adult cattle. Dairy holdings had 3.06 (95 per cent CI 2.96 to 3.16) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as beef suckler holdings. These analyses show that there were different rates of onset in different regions and in holdings of different sizes and types, that the epidemic was propagated most strongly in the south of the country, and that the growth of the epidemic followed essentially the same pattern in each region of the country, with modest temporal lags between them. The control measures imposed in 1988 and 1990 brought the expansion of the epidemic under control, although the rate of progress was slowed by those regions where the effectiveness of the control methods took some time to take full effect.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper we investigate area-level risk factors for BSE for the cattle population present in Great Britain between 1986 and 1997. By dividing this population into two birth cohorts, those born before the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal to ruminants and those born after, second-order regional influences are distinguished from the strong first-order south-to-north gradient of area-level BSE risk using Bayesian hierarchical models that account for structured (spatially correlated) and unstructured heterogeneity in the data. For both cohorts area-level risk of BSE was increased by a more southerly location and greater numbers of dairy cattle, relative to non-dairy cattle. For the cohort of cattle born after the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal area-level BSE risk was additionally associated with greater numbers of pigs, relative to cattle. These findings support the role of low level cross-contamination of cattle feed by pig feed as an influence on BSE incidence risk as the epidemic evolved. Prior to the 1988 meat and bone meal ban unexplained BSE risk was relatively uniformly distributed across the country whereas after the ban there were spatially aggregated areas of unexplained risk in the northern and eastern regions of England suggesting that local influences allowed BSE control measures to be less-successfully applied in these areas, compared with the rest of the country. We conclude that spatially localised influences were operating in divergent ways during the two phases of the epidemic.  相似文献   

15.
The first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan was found in September 2001. As a result, national BSE surveillance systems in slaughterhouses and farms were introduced between October 2001 and April 2004. All cattle, with the exception of those under 24 months of age that die at farms, now undergo compulsory testing when they die or are slaughtered. The removal of specified risk material (SRM) from all slaughtered cattle and a ban on the feeding of meat-and-bone meal to all farm animals were implemented in October 2001. However, infected cattle that died or were slaughtered before these measures were put into practice could have been a source of infection to other cattle through the rendering process. The slaughtered cattle could also have been a source of infection to humans via SRM that entered the food chain. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number of BSE-infected cattle that could have been a source of infection to cattle and humans before October 2001. Since all typical cases were dairy cattle, this study focused on the dairy cattle population. We developed a simulation model to obtain the year of death and the final disposition of infected cows born in each year from 1996 to 2001. In this model, the dairy cattle population was divided into birth cohorts, and parameters regarding its population dynamics were assumed to be constant. Using this model, the total number of infected cattle in each birth year was estimated by maximum likelihood estimation using data on the number of detected cases from 2002 to 2006. Finally, the number of infected cattle that died or were slaughtered each year was estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation using the same model with the total number of infected cattle estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. It was estimated that the majority of infected cattle that could have been sources of infection before 2001 were born in 1996. The total number born in 1996 was estimated to be 155 (95% confidence interval: 90-275). Of these 155 cattle, 56 died or were slaughtered before October 2001, after the accumulation of infectious agent in their bodies. Only 5 of these 56 cattle were estimated to have been slaughtered. Therefore, the number of infected cattle that could have served as a source of human infection would appear to have been a very limited subset of the BSE-infected cattle in Japan.  相似文献   

16.
The objectives of this study were first to determine the cumulative incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population from July 1986 to June 1997, secondly, to identify individual animal-associated risk factors that influenced the age of onset of clinical signs in confirmed BSE cases, and, thirdly, to assess the effectiveness of the measures introduced to control BSE during the epidemic. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was individual adult cattle recorded on annual agricultural censuses between June 1986 and June 1996. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to characterise the age of onset of clinical signs. In total 167,366 cases of BSE were diagnosed in Great Britain up to June 30, 1997. The cumulative incidence of BSE between July 1986 and June 1997 was 1.10 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.10) cases per 100 adult cattle at risk. Cattle from the South east, South west and Eastern regions of England had 4.26 to 5.96 (95 per cent CI 4.15 to 6.14) times as great a monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE as cattle from Scotland. Compared with cattle born before June 1985, those born between July 1987 and June 1988 had 22.5 (95 per cent CI 22.1 to 22.8) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE, whereas those born in the 12 months after July 1988 had only 7.39 (95 per cent CI 7.24 to 7.54) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE. This reduction in hazard was directly attributable to the ban on the use of ruminant protein as a feed instituted in July 1988. Successive cohorts from 1989 to 1991 experienced further reductions in the hazard of experiencing BSE. The additional decrease in hazard observed for the 1990 cohort may be attributed to the effect of the Specified Bovine Offal ban instituted in September 1990.  相似文献   

17.
Since first BSE cases in cattle born in Germany were recognized, questions have been raised concerning the future development of the disease and the epidemiological dynamics of BSE, and, consequently, modelling approaches that might answer these questions. The database for such modelling efforts is formed by BSE incidence numbers or incidence rates, broken down by age at onset of clinical disease, and by time of onset or time of birth, respectively, from available information gathered for suspect and confirmed BSE cases. To describe such data, statistical age-period-cohort-models and two epidemiologically/biologically oriented modelling approaches are discussed: the so-called three-factor-model used by the Central Veterinary Laboratory of the British Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) (now Department of the Environment and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)), and a back-calculation-model developed by a working group at the University of Oxford. Resulting model calculations are supposed to serve several purposes, including a prediction of future BSE incidence numbers, and, especially based on the "Oxford"-model, a back-calculation of the epidemic of BSE infections from the epidemic of clinically diseased BSE cases. Analysis of these approaches reveals some problems even to identify unique age, period, or birth cohort effects. An additional estimation of epidemiological components of BSE, for example the frequency distribution of incubation times, has to rely on further assumptions that cannot be validated by the model fit as such. Therefore, modelling results should be interpreted with caution. However, the limitations demonstrated by this discussion emphasize the need for specific studies to investigate certain aspects of the BSE epidemic, for example the distribution of times from infection to disease onset, and for the centralised collection of valid and detailed population data for cattle.  相似文献   

18.
Real-time PCR和常规PCR方法快速鉴定肉骨粉中的牛源性成份   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
疯牛病是一种严重危害动物和人类健康的疾病,其病原朊病毒可以通过食物链进行传播,因此建立准确的检测牛源性成份的方法非常重要.我们采用常规PCR和Real-time PCR中的TaqMan技术建立了快速鉴定牛源性成份的方法,使用Chelex-100提取肉骨粉中的DNA,过程简单可靠仅需要20min左右.对不同含量的牛肉骨粉进行检测,常规PCR能够检测到的最低含量是0.001%,而Real-time PCR对相同的样品进行检测所得到的灵敏度更高,最高可达到0.0001%,两种PCR方法的鉴定过程都非常简单快速,各需要2 h左右.这两种方法可以根据各实验室的不同条件作为肉骨粉鉴别的常规检测方法.  相似文献   

19.
In France, after the ban on meat and bone meal (MBM) in cattle feeding in June 1990, cases of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) have continued to be detected in bovines born after that ban (called BAB cases). A case-control study was therefore carried out to determine the way these cases were contaminated. A multivariate conditional model was built adjusting for the production type of the animals and taking into account the herd size. The results confirmed that feeding cattle with proprietary concentrates was at risk for BSE, with an adjusted odds ratio of 6.8 (2.5; 18.7) for the consumption of less or three different proprietary concentrates and 17.6 (5.7; 54.8) for more than three, when comparing with no consumption of proprietary concentrates, considering feeding of bovines before the age of two. The results suggest that cross-contaminations by MBM in bovine concentrates have occurred after 1990. To a lesser extent, on-farm cross-contaminations, i.e. consumption by cattle of feedstuffs initially dedicated to other animals and which could legally contain MBM, have probably also existed, since the presence on farms of poultry fed purchased feed involved an increased risk of BSE with an odds ratio of 1.8 (1.1; 3.0). The use of milk replacers, which often incorporates animal fats, was also at risk with an odds ratio of 1.8 (1.0; 3.1).  相似文献   

20.
Since 1996, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle has been linked to a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), a fatal brain disease in man. This paper assessed the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies instituted by the European Commission. In a Monte Carlo simulation model, a non-intervention baseline scenario was compared to three intervention strategies: removal of specified risk materials from slaughter animals, post-mortem testing for BSE and the culling of feed and age cohorts of BSE cases. The food risk in the baseline scenario ranged from 16.98 lost life years in 2002 to 2.69 lost life years in 2005. Removing specified risk materials removal practices, post-mortem testing and post-mortem testing plus cohort culling reduced this risk with 93%, 82.7% and 83.1%. The estimated cost-effectiveness of all BSE measures in the Netherlands ranged from 4.3 million euros per life year saved in 2002 to 17.7 million euros in 2005. It was discussed that the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies will further deviate from regular health economics thresholds as BSE prevalence and incidence declines.  相似文献   

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