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1.
Drought is one of the most significant environmental disasters,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.Drought indices as a tool for management practices seeking to deal with the drought phenomenon are widely used around the world.One of these indicators is the Palmer drought severity index(PDSI),which is used in many parts of the world to assess the drought situation and continuation.In this study,the drought state of Fars Province in Iran was evaluated by using the PDSI over 1995-2014 according to meteorological data from six weather stations in the province.A statistical downscaling model(SDSM)was used to apply the output results of the general circulation model in Fars Province.To implement data processing and prediction of climate data,a statistical period 1995-2014 was considered as the monitoring period,and a statistical period 2019-2048 was for the prediction period.The results revealed that there is a good agreement between the simulated precipitation(R2>0.63;R2,determination coefficient;MAE<0.52;MAE,mean absolute error;RMSE<0.56;RMSE,Root Mean Squared Error)and temperature(R2>0.95,MAE<1.74,and RMSE<1.78)with the observed data from the stations.The results of the drought monitoring model presented that dry periods would increase over the next three decades as compared to the historical data.The studies showed the highest drought in the meteorological stations Abadeh and Lar during the prediction period under two future scenarios representative concentration pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).According to the results of the validation periods and efficiency criteria,we suggest that the SDSM is a proper tool for predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions.  相似文献   

2.
Net primary production (NPP) is an indicator of rangeland ecosystem function. This research assessed the potential of the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model for estimating NPP and its spatial and temporal changes in semi-arid rangelands of Semirom County, Iran. Using CASA model, we estimated the NPP values based on monthly climate data and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained from the MODIS sensor. Regression analysis was then applied to compare the estimated production data with observed production data. The spatial and temporal changes in NPP and light utilization efficiency (LUE) were investigated in different rangeland vegetation types. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was also calculated at different time scales and the correlation of SPI with NPP changes was determined. The results indicated that the estimated NPP values varied from 0.00 to 74.48 g C/(m2?a). The observed and estimated NPP values had different correlations, depending on rangeland conditions and vegetation types. The highest and lowest correlations were respectively observed in Astragalus spp.-Agropyronspp. rangeland (R2=0.75) with good condition and Gundeliaspp.-Cousiniaspp. rangeland (R2=0.36) with poor and very poor conditions. The maximum and minimum LUE values were found in Astragalus spp.-Agropyronspp. rangeland (0.117 g C/MJ) with good condition and annual grasses-annual forbs rangeland (0.010 g C/MJ), respectively. According to the correlations between SPI and NPP changes, the effects of drought periods on NPP depended on vegetation types and rangeland conditions. Annual plants had the highest drought sensitivity while shrubs exhibited the lowest drought sensitivity. The positive effects of wet periods on NPP were less evident in degraded areas where the destructive effects of drought were more prominent. Therefore, determining vegetation types and rangeland conditions is essential in NPP estimation. The findings of this study confirmed the potential of the CASA for estimating rangeland production. Therefore, the model output maps can be used to evaluate, monitor and optimize rangeland management in semi-arid rangelands of Iran where MODIS NPP products are not available.  相似文献   

3.
The high resolution satellite precipitation products bear great potential for large-scale drought monitoring, especially for those regions with sparsely or even without gauge coverage. This study focuses on utilizing the latest Version-7 TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA 3B42V7) data for drought condition monitoring in the Weihe River Basin(0.135×106 km2). The accuracy of the monthly TMPA 3B42V7 satellite precipitation data was firstly evaluated against the ground rain gauge observations. The statistical characteristics between a short period data series(1998–2013) and a long period data series(1961–2013) were then compared. The TMPA 3B42V7-based SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index) sequences were finally validated and analyzed at various temporal scales for assessing the drought conditions. The results indicate that the monthly TMPA 3B42V7 precipitation is in a high agreement with the rain gauge observations and can accurately capture the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall within the Weihe River Basin. The short period data can present the characteristics of long period record, and it is thus acceptable to use the short period data series to estimate the cumulative probability function in the SPI calculation. The TMPA 3B42V7-based SPI matches well with that based on the rain gauge observations at multiple time scales(i.e., 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month) and can give an acceptable temporal distribution of drought conditions. It suggests that the TMPA 3B42V7 precipitation data can be used for monitoring the occurrence of drought in the Weihe River Basin.  相似文献   

4.
Drought was a severe recurring phenomenon in Iraq over the past two decades due to climate change despite the fact that Iraq has been one of the most water-rich countries in the Middle East in the past.The Iraqi Kurdistan Region(IKR)is located in the north of Iraq,which has also suffered from extreme drought.In this study,the drought severity status in Sulaimaniyah Province,one of four provinces of the IKR,was investigated for the years from 1998 to 2017.Thus,Landsat time series dataset,including 40 images,were downloaded and used in this study.The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)and the Normalized Difference Water Index(NDWI)were utilized as spectral-based drought indices and the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)was employed as a meteorological-based drought index,to assess the drought severity and analyse the changes of vegetative cover and water bodies.The study area experienced precipitation deficiency and severe drought in 1999,2000,2008,2009,and 2012.Study findings also revealed a drop in the vegetative cover by 33.3%in the year 2000.Furthermore,the most significant shrinkage in water bodies was observed in the Lake Darbandikhan(LDK),which lost 40.5%of its total surface area in 2009.The statistical analyses revealed that precipitation was significantly positively correlated with the SPI and the surface area of the LDK(correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.72,respectively).The relationship between SPI and NDVI-based vegetation cover was positive but not significant.Low precipitation did not always correspond to vegetative drought;the delay of the effect of precipitation on NDVI was one year.  相似文献   

5.
以三江源区为研究区,基于AMSR-E的亮度温度数据获得了微波极化差异指数(MPDI)、比值干旱指数(DI)和多时相微波干旱指数(PI),并分别对这3种指数进行了干旱监测有效性检验。为了获得研究区全区监测效果更好的干旱指数,对MPDI、DI和PI指数进行融合,最终获得的综合微波干旱指数(SDI)与土壤湿度数据和降水数据都存在很好的相关性,对比单个指数时监测干旱的有效性也得到了提高。最后,应用SDI指数对三江源区21世纪以来的干旱情况进行了监测研究。结果表明:基于AMSR-E的综合微波干旱指数(SDI)能有效的对干旱进行监测,充分发挥了被动微波遥感数据的优势,具有一定的应用价值,为后续利用多源的多传感器的微波遥感数据监测干旱的相关研究奠定了基础。  相似文献   

6.
The Palmer drought severity index(PDSI), standardized precipitation index(SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) are used worldwide for drought assessment and monitoring. However, substantial differences exist in the performance for agricultural drought among these indices and among regions. Here, we performed statistical assessments to compare the strengths of different drought indices for agricultural drought in the North China Plain. Small differences were detected in the comparative performances of SPI and SPEI that were smaller at the long-term scale than those at the short-term scale. The correlation between SPI/SPEI and PDSI considerably increased from 1-to 12-month lags, and a slight decreasing trend was exhibited during 12-and 24-month lags, indicating a 12-month scale in the PDSI, whereas the SPI was strongly correlated with the SPEI at 1-to 24-month lags. Interestingly, the correlation between the trend of temperature and the mean absolute error and its correlation coefficient both suggested stronger relationships between SPI and the SPEI in areas of rapid climate warming. In addition, the yield–drought correlations tended to be higher for the SPI and SPEI than that for the PDSI at the station scale, whereas small differences were detected between the SPI and SPEI in the performance on agricultural systems. However, large differences in the influence of drought conditions on the yields of winter wheat and summer maize were evident among various indices during the crop-growing season. Our findings suggested that multi-indices in drought monitoring are needed in order to acquire robust conclusions.  相似文献   

7.
The drought has enormous adverse effects on agriculture, water resources and environment, and causes damages around the world. Drought risk assessment and prioritization of drought management can help decision makers and planners to manage the adverse effects of drought. This paper aims to determine the risk of drought in Iran. At the first stage, standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the period 1981-2016. Then the probability map of different drought classes or drought hazard probability map were prepared. After that the indicator-based vulnerability assessment method was used to determine the drought vulnerability index. Five indices including climate, topography, waterway density, land use and groundwater resources were chosen as the most critical factors of drought in Iran and followed by the analytical hierarchy process questionnaire, the weights of each index were obtained based on expert opinions. Fuzzy membership maps of each index and sub-index were prepared using ArcGIS software. The drought vulnerability map of Iran was plotted using these weights and maps of each indicator. Finally, the drought risk map of Iran was provided by multiplying drought hazard and vulnerability maps. According to the 43-completed questionnaires by experts, climate index has the highest vulnerability to drought. Climate does not have an important role in drought hazard index, but it is the most crucial factor to classified drought vulnerability index. The results showed that central, northeast, southeast and west parts of Iran are at high risks of drought. There are regions with different risks in Iran due to unusual weather and climatic conditions. We realized that the climate and the groundwater situation is almost the same in the central, east and south parts of Iran, because the land use plays a crucial role in the drought vulnerability and risk in these areas. The drought risk decreases from the center of Iran to the southwest and northwest.  相似文献   

8.
三种气象干旱指标在内蒙古地区的适用性分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
用近五年(2006～2010)内蒙古地区的气象观测资料,对降水距平百分率(pa)、相对湿润度干旱指数(M)和标准化降水指数(SPI)三种气象干旱等级指标的适用性进行了对比分析。发现在作物生长季,pa指标和SPI指数对旱情的评判结果高度一致,而冬春季节则是pa指标和M指数的评判结果比较一致。在多雨季节,可能蒸散量通常比同期降水量小,因此M指数对内蒙古夏季旱情评判等级偏低,不宜使用。同时指出应该将不同时间段干旱影响上的差异,以及干旱灾害的累积效应问题,加入到干旱等级指标的改进中。  相似文献   

9.
Drought occurs in almost all climate zones and is characterized by prolonged water deficiency due to unbalanced demand and supply of water, persistent insufficient precipitation, lack of moisture, and high evapotranspiration. Drought caused by insufficient precipitation is a temporary and recurring meteorological event. Precipitation in semi-arid regions is different from that in other regions, ranging from 50 to 750 mm. In general, the semi-arid regions in the west and north of Iran received more precipitation than those in the east and south. The Terrestrial Climate (TerraClimate) data, including monthly precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) developed by the University of Idaho, were used in this study. The PDSI data was directly obtained from the Google Earth Engine platform. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on two different scales were calculated in time series and also both SPI and SPEI were shown in spatial distribution maps. The result showed that normal conditions were a common occurrence in the semi-arid regions of Iran over the majority of years from 2000 to 2020, according to a spatiotemporal study of the SPI at 3-month and 12-month time scales as well as the SPEI at 3-month and 12-month time scales. Moreover, the PDSI detected extreme dry years during 2000-2003 and in 2007, 2014, and 2018. In many semi-arid regions of Iran, the SPI at 3-month time scale is higher than the SPEI at 3-month time scale in 2000, 2008, 2014, 2015, and 2018. In general, this study concluded that the semi-arid regions underwent normal weather conditions from 2000 to 2020. In a way, moderate, severe, and extreme dry occurred with a lesser percentage, gradually decreasing. According to the PDSI, during 2000-2003 and 2007-2014, extreme dry struck practically all hot semi-arid regions of Iran. Several parts of the cold semi-arid regions, on the other hand, only experienced moderate to severe dry from 2000 to 2003, except for the eastern areas and wetter regions. The significance of this study is the determination of the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought in semi-arid regions of Iran using strongly validated data from TerraClimate.  相似文献   

10.
柴达木盆地干旱时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
利用柴达木盆地气象站收集的降水和气温数据,计算了SPI和SPEI两种干旱指数,并用于评价研究区不同时间尺度的干旱特征。然而,由于测站分布稀疏,两种指数在区域干旱评价方面存在不足。在此基础上基于全球范围内的scPDSIpm数据集,并用PDSI指数分析了干旱演变特征及时空分布规律,研究发现：①温度在年际尺度对研究区的干旱情况影响较大,而在月尺度和半年尺度上对研究区干旱情况影响不明显;②PDSI指数与SPEI和SPI干旱指数的相关系数较高（0.7以上）,与两者具有较好的一致性,PDSI更适宜于无资料地区的干旱评价;③研究区中部干旱状况最为严重,东部边缘和西北部干旱频次相对较少,但2000年以来这种趋势得到改善。本研究对评价不同干旱指数的适用性及资料缺乏地区的干旱评价具有重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

11.
山西南部季节性干旱特征及综合防御技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
采用标准化降水指数(SPI)为干旱指标,计算了山西省运城市49年(1958—2007年)各月干旱指数,并在此基础上分析了山西南部地区季节性干旱特征。研究表明,干旱强度与干旱频率在不同年代际表现特征不同。与运城地区49年同期均值相比,进入20世纪90年代后,春旱发生频率、干旱强度分别提高了29.0%、5.1%;夏旱发生频率提高41.9%,干旱强度下降了7.4%;秋旱发生频率下降了23.8%,干旱强度提高了7.7%;冬旱发生频率下降了26.6%,干旱强度下降了37.5%。干旱的季节性特征为春旱和夏旱有加重趋势,秋旱和冬旱有减弱趋势。春旱(3—5月)和伏旱(7—8月)作为可预见性干旱,可采用土壤墒情监测、干旱预警、制定系统性抗旱措施等综合防御技术。对于不可预见类型干旱,可采用建立抗旱水源、储备抗旱机械等策略。  相似文献   

12.
Agricultural drought is a type of natural disaster that seriously impacts food security.Because the relationships among short-term rainfall,soil moisture,and crop growth are complex,accurate identification of a drought situation is difficult.In this study,using a conceptual model based on the relationship between water deficit and crop yield reduction,we evaluated the drought process in a typical rainfed agricultural region,Hailar county in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,China.To quantify drought,we used the precipitation-based Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),the soil moisture-based Crop Moisture Index(CMI),as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between dekad-scale drought indices during the growing season(May–September)and final yield,according to data collection from 2000 to 2010.The results show that crop yield has positive relationships with CMI from mid-June to mid-July and with the NDVI anomaly throughout July,but no correlation with SPI.Further analysis of the relationship between the two drought indices shows that the NDVI anomaly responds to CMI with a lag of 1 dekad,particularly in July.To examine the feasibility of employing these indices for monitoring the drought process at a dekad time scale,a detailed drought assessment was carried out for selected drought years.The results confirm that the soil moisture-based vegetation indices in the late vegetative to early reproductive growth stages can be used to detect agricultural drought in the study area.Therefore,the framework of the conceptual model developed for drought monitoring can be employed to support drought mitigation in the rainfed agricultural region of Northern China.  相似文献   

13.
基于改进的标准化降水指数的黄河中游干旱情势研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
提出了一种基于旬累积尺度的月标准化降水指数(SPI)计算方法,该方法不仅考虑了前期降雨量对区域当前旱情的影响,因而对旱情的评估更为客观,同时在实际应用中更具有时间上的灵活性,更能体现气象干旱的累积效应和预报的时效性。计算了黄河中游山西省境内近40a(1971-2009年)各旬干旱指数,分析结果表明改进的标准化降水指数能够很好地表征黄河中游山西省境内的历史旱情状况。引入国际上常用的多种未来气候情景,研究分析了未来气候变化下2021-2050年黄河中游山西省境内地区旱情发展的可能情势,结果表明其存在对农业不利影响加重的可能,需要引起水资源管理部门的重视。  相似文献   

14.
基于加权马尔可夫模型的标准化降水指数干旱预测研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  
基于不同时间尺度标准化降水指数的干旱监测结果,以规范化的各阶白相关系数为权重,采用加权马尔可夫链方法对未来干旱状态进行预测和分析.以关中平原和渭北旱塬36个气泉站39年逐月降水量为分析数据.系统地分析了该方法在不同时间尺度(从1个月到1年)上的预测能力及存在的问题.结果表明:对所选的5个时间尺度该方法都有一定的预测能力,并且随着时间尺度的增加,预测正确率也相应提高.同时,该方法对无旱的预测比较准确.对干旱的发生也有一定预测能力,可以作为早期干旱预警的参考.但是,该方法对干旱状态突变的预测能力较弱;随着干旱程度的加重其预测能力也逐渐降低.  相似文献   

15.
In recent years, climate change has been aggravated in many regions of the world. The Hexi Corridor is located in the semiarid climate zone of Northwest China, which is particularly affected by climate change. Climate change has led to the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and precipitation, which may result in hydrological drought and water shortage. Thus, it is necessary to explore and assess the drought characteristics of river systems in this area. The patterns of hydrological drought in the Hexi Corridor were identified using the streamflow drought index(SDI) and standardized precipitation index at 12-month timescale(SPI12) from 1960 to 2013. The evolution of drought was obtained by the Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform method. The results showed that both the mean annual SDI and SPI12 series in the Hexi Corridor exhibited an increasing trend during the study period. According to the results of wavelet analysis, we divided the study period into two segments, i.e. before and after 1990. Before 1990, the occurrence of droughts showing decreased SDI and SPI12 was concentrated in the northern part of the corridor and shifted to the eastern part of the corridor after 1990. The probability of drought after 1990 in Shule River basin decreased while increased in Shiyang River basin. The wavelet analysis results showed that Shiyang River basin will be the first area to go through the next drought period. Additionally, the relationships between drought pattern and climate indices were analyzed. The enhanced westerly winds and increased precipitation and glacier runoff were the main reasons of wet trend in the Hexi Corridor. However, the uneven spatial variations of precipitation, temperature and glacier runoff led to the difference of hydrological drought variations between the Shule, Heihe and Shiyang River basins.  相似文献   

16.
潮白河流域气象水文干旱特征及其响应关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
利用潮白河流域7个气象站1960-2011年逐月降水以及密云水库同时期入库流量数据,分别以SPI和SDI两个干旱指标表征气象、水文干旱,采用游程理论、M-K检验、滑动t-检验、Spearman秩相关检验等方法研究了该流域气象水文干旱特征,并探求水文、气象干旱的响应关系。结果表明：研究期内潮白河流域气象干旱多以短历时干旱事件为主,历时1-2个月的干旱事件达研究期内气象干旱事件总次数的67.18%;但是气象干旱的年干旱烈度及其历时未通过MK趋势显著性检验,其线性斜率值仅为-0.025和-0.005,变化趋势不明显。而水文干旱存在极长历时重烈度干旱事件,历时达4个月以上的干旱事件达研究期内水文干旱事件总次数的46.54%,最长干旱历时达45个月;且研究期内水文干旱的年干旱烈度及其历时均通过显著性检验,线性斜率值达-0.419和0.228,变化显著;二者均在1980年和1998年出现突变现象。自20世纪90年代末以来,潮白河流域水文干旱频繁发生,且多为长历时连续干旱。研究期内水文干旱滞后气象干旱约1个月。  相似文献   

17.
渭河流域干旱指标空间分布研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
基于月降水数据,运用干旱指标研究渭河流域的干旱特征。以西安站为例,详细对比了Z指数与SPI计算结果的一致性和差异;分别采用1、3、6、9、12个月和24个月时间尺度SPI分析了该站历史旱涝状况及持续时间,并探讨了其季节旱涝特征。计算了渭河流域1995年11月不同时间尺度的SPI值,并绘制了相应的空间分布图。结果表明：多时间尺度SPI[WTBZ]能够反映出降水的分散情况,并给出降水量区间与干旱指标的对应关系,是进行旱涝监测和预报的一种有效手段;发生于1995年的渭河全流域干旱具有季节性和多年特征,干旱程度总体上由东南部向西北部递减。  相似文献   

18.
陇东地区植被指数NDVI与降水的关系研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
利用1982～2003年NOAA/AVHRR(advanced very high resolution rediometer)资料及同期的降水资料,对甘肃省陇东地区半干旱区环县和半湿润区西峰的植被指数NDVI与不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数SPI进行相关分析.结果表明:在植被生长季,植被对降水的敏感程度半干旱区大于半湿润区;大多数月NDVI与3-SPI的相关系数较高,而与1-SPI较低;半干旱区和半湿润区NDVI的年变化幅度分别为:-12%～10%和-10%～13%,半干旱区NDVI的年变化与SPI变化趋势吻合较好,显著相关(P<0.05),而在半湿润区二者并不显著;半干旱区的年NDVI与四季降水均显著相关(P<0.05),而半湿润区年NDVI只与冬春季的降水显著相关(P<0.05).  相似文献   

19.
典型干旱指数在滦河流域的适用性评价   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
利用1957-2010年滦河流域9个代表气象站逐月降水量资料及滦河三道河子、韩家营、承德、下板城和滦县站的1956-2000年逐月天然径流量资料,分别应用降水距平百分率、标准化降水指数（SPI）、降水Z指数及径流距平百分率,评价滦河流域干旱情况,并比较4种干旱指数的评价效果。结果表明：降水距平百分率反映干旱程度较轻;与降水Z指数相比,SPI指数能较客观地反映滦河流域干旱程度,3种气象干旱指数在滦河流域的适用性评价结果SPI]指数优于降水Z指数和降水距平百分率;而径流距平百分率的水文干旱指数评价结果与实际旱情更为吻合。但是,这4种干旱指标缺乏综合性和机理性,尚需加强降水、气温、蒸发、径流量等因素的综合考虑,提出反映干旱内在机理的指标。  相似文献   

20.
利用山西省1961-2006年夏季降水量资料和四种东亚夏季风指数,采用相关分析和距平分析法,对比分析了山西夏季降水与四种东亚季风指数的关联性。结果表明:山西夏季降水与四种东亚夏季风指数的相关性有好有坏,与郭其蕴GI和王斌WI指数的相关性均比与黄刚HI指数和李建平LI指数表现的好,但夏季降水与GI指数为正相关而与WI指数为负相关,其中高相关区分布在南部和中部;GI和WI指数距平符号对山西夏季降水异常有较好表征意义,尤其在干旱年份,而HI和LI指数几乎没有表征能力;GI和WI高指数年和低指数年降水差异明显,在南部和中部尤为显著,而HI和LI指数差异较小,且空间分布上有正有负。  相似文献   

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