共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 265 毫秒
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速生丰产林建设项目,具有建设周期相对较长,投资数额大,收益相对较低的特征,解决建设资金投入问题时,可以考虑采用项目融资方式。文章分析了速生丰产林项目融资中的风险,从风险的角度出发找出制约我国速生丰产林项目融资的因素。 相似文献
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风险管理是项目融资的一个重要组成部分,风险应对是风险管理的一个重要工作过程。文章阐述了项目融资的系统性风险和非系统性风险的分类.并从项目投资者的角度。针对每一种风险提出了一些应对方法。 相似文献
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项目成本风险分析方法的改进 总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0
对以往用于项目成本风险分析的蒙特卡罗方法提出两点改进,用共同风险因素衡量各成本要素之间的相互依赖程度,从而提供一种进行项目风险分析的直接且有效的方法。 相似文献
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基于风险价值VAR的BOT项目投融资风险分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
应用风险价值理论,对BOT项目投融资风险进行定性与定量的风险分析.以某污水处理厂项目为工程实例,建立了项目的财务净现值模型,并将此模型作为风险价值分析的估值模型,应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,以人民币汇率为随机变量,以项目贴现率,污水处理收费、债务比例、债务利率和项目期限等作为项目风险敏感因子,定量计算并分析当各敏感因子在合理范围内变化时,项目财务净现值的风险价值VAR变化趋势.分析结果完全符合项目客观事实以及理论预期,这也说明将金融风险价值理论应用于工程BOT项目的投融资风险分析是完全可行的.更重要的是,BOT项目投资者可以结合具体项目的特点,根据论文探索的这一套理论和风险价值计算方法,对项目的投融资风险做出较为准确的定量描述,为BOT项目投资者准确预期项目未来收益、合理规避或降低项目风险提供基础的数据依据. 相似文献
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林业具有多重效益,兼具减缓和适应气候变化的双重功能,是实现碳中和的经济可行的重要措施。国际核证碳标准(VCS)以其严格的项目开发规则和适时更新迭代的标准体系,成为世界各国开发林业碳汇项目的主要标准。文中介绍了VCS林业碳汇项目的运行架构、开发流程以及项目登记交易规则等运行机理,分析VCS林业碳汇项目的方法学使用情况、项目开发情况以及项目价格变动情况,指出林业碳汇项目为发展中国家获得持续融资机会、实现可持续发展目标发挥了重要作用;总结了VCS标准在长期实践中在更新规则、注重协同效益、实现公开透明、侧重提升碳信用质量、采用数字化技术等方面积累的经验,对我国制定自愿减排市场制度规则、国内学者研究VCS标准、项目开发方掌握VCS林业碳汇项目开发程序等具有理论参考和经验借鉴价值。 相似文献
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国际经济贸易活动中,进出口双方常常通过托收融资来防范托收结算方式下的风险,但是不论是出口托收押汇还是进口托收押汇,它们本身也蕴藏着一定的风险,只有认真地研究这些风险并加以防范,才能更好的让银行的托收融资业务为企业服务。 相似文献
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风险,任何企业或金融机构在进行融资、经营、投资活动时,都将对其重点关注,希望通过策划在保置完马预期计划尽量将其规避、减小。融资租赁,一种新兴的融资方式,基于其独有的三大特点:租赁物所有权与使用权分离;融资与融物的结合;租金的分期回流,大大降低银行,厦信托公司、租赁公司、承租企业三方风险。这使企业的融资计划顺利实现,促进设备的更新和企业的发展,推动经济的快速稳定发展。 相似文献
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Marco Conedera Damiano TorrianiChristophe Neff Carlo RicottaSofia Bajocco Gianni Boris Pezzatti 《Forest Ecology and Management》2011,261(12):2179-2187
A comprehensive assessment of fire ignition danger is nowadays a basic step towards the prioritization of fire management measures. In this study we propose performing a fire selectivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to statistically estimate the relative fire ignition danger in a low-to-intermediate fire-prone region such as Canton Ticino, Switzerland. We define fire ignition danger as the likelihood that at a given place a fire will be ignited. For each 25 m × 25 m pixel of the study area, landscape characteristics that may be related to the probability of fire ignition such as vegetation type, elevation, aspect, slope, urban-forest interface were first split into 9-12 categories. The selectivity of each category with respect to fire ignition was then statistically tested by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we proposed two different approaches for calculating the ignition danger index: cumulating the scores of the Monte Carlo simulations to a final index or producing synthetic scores by performing a principal component analysis of the Monte Carlo results. The validation of the resulting fire danger indices highlights the suitability of both proposed approaches. The PCA-option allows a slightly better discrimination between ignition and non-ignition points and may be of more general application. 相似文献
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We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review
of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide
a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the risk management
process and the main hazards in forests (storm, snow, insects, fire), the paper focuses on the principal methods used to assess
risks from these hazards for commercial forestry. We review mechanistic models, empirical models, and expert systems and consider
the needs for different spatial scales of risk assessment, from the regional to the single-tree level. In addition to natural
hazards and their secondary effects, we deal with economic aspects of risk analysis. Monte Carlo simulations to deal with
volatile timber prices and ways to include risk in classical Faustmann approaches are briefly discussed along with the integration
of portfolio theory into forest management decision making and attitude toward risk. Special attention is paid to the implications
for risk modeling under climate change. 相似文献
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蒙特卡洛有限元法结构可靠性分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对结构体系可靠性分析的困难和复杂,运用蒙特卡洛有限元法,提出一种分析空间框架结构体系的可靠性方法。首先采用蒙特卡洛方法对所取的荷载和材料参数进行模拟,产生其各自的随机数;然后利用有限元方法,并考虑荷载和材料的随机性,计算得到结构的响应,对其进行统计分析;最后再采用W检验及最大熵法对其进行概率密度拟合,利用失效准则建立结构的功能函数,求得体系的可靠度。通过实例分析,该方法可很好地用于求解空间框架结构体系的可靠性,方法简便,容易实现,可对将建结构进行可靠性分析,也可用于评估在役房屋结构的可靠性,为工程结构的维修提供参考。 相似文献
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The spatial structure of tropical forest stands under different management conditions was modeled as a series of different spatial point processes. Spatial patterns were first assessed by K-function analyses to help choose a point process appropriate for observed patterns. The homogenous Neyman–Scott process accurately described live tree distribution in clear cut areas, where tree patterns tended to be aggregated. Parameters were estimated by minimizing Diggle's modified least squares criterion, and goodness-of-fit was assessed by comparison to confidence envelopes constructed by Monte Carlo simulation. Parameter estimates can be interpreted to help understand the ecological processes influencing re-colonization of disturbed areas. The inhomogeneous Poisson process was investigated for simulating the spatial pattern of ingrowth trees in lower canopy strata. The intensity function of this process was inversely proportional to variables representing canopy density. As assessed by Monte Carlo generation of confidence envelopes, the inhomogeneous Poisson process successfully portrayed the influence of canopy structure on understory plant distribution in most stands. Tree mortality was modeled as a thinning process in which the probability of individual tree mortality was conditional on subject tree attributes and competitive environment. The thinning function took the form of a generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and logit link function. In most stands, tree neighborhood variables were powerful predictors of mortality, but they were not important predictors in all plots. This suggests that the surrounding forest structure of a subject tree has considerable influence on its morality, but competition is not the sole cause of tree morality in tropical forests. 相似文献
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林分择伐空间结构优化模型研究 总被引:25,自引:3,他引:25
提出了林分择伐空间结构优化的建模方法 ,突破以功能优化为目标的或称功能优化模型的建模思想局限性 ,并建立了林分择伐空间结构优化模型。该模型集成现代森林经理学理论、生物多样性保护与信息技术 ,并成功地与检查法相结合。模型属非线性多目标整数规划 ,目标函数是基于混交、竞争和空间分布格局的空间结构 ,非空间结构作为主要约束条件。MonteCarlo法是模型求解的可行方法。以吉林省汪清林业局金沟岭林场的一个固定样地为例 ,用本模型进行择伐规划 ,得到具有空间位置信息的最优采伐方案。 相似文献
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结合森林开发项目的特点,对风险管理的概念、过程进行了介绍,并就风险管理在森林开发项目中的应用进行了探讨,提出了项目综合风险管理模型,最后就风险管理的实施作了总结。 相似文献
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以湖南省株洲市攸县黄丰桥林场为研究对象,以Visual Basic和Access数据库为开发平台,通过模拟生成一个与现实林分相似的虚拟林分,应用Weibull分布、Monte Carlo方法和随机分布方法对林分直径结构进行模拟;利用数学分析和统计方法计算林分经营决策因子;根据林分经营决策因子的决策准则,建立森林经营决策模型,然后对其进行检验.由此设计并实现了森林经营决策模拟系统.该系统可以动态地模拟林分直径结构,模拟结果非常稳定;能动态地模拟林木的地面位置;实现了模拟数据结果的实时浏览查看、图表图像显示等多项功能. 相似文献