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1.
以泾惠渠灌区为研究对象,采用动态规划、神经网络、遗传算法等多种优化算法基于Matlab完成了系统优化模型,并采用GIS的三维可视化和空间分析技术基于COMGIS完成了灌溉仿真模型,同时利用COM技术,建立了系统与MatlabArcGIS无缝集成的泾惠渠灌区灌溉决策支持系统。系统能够有效地协助决策人员解决泾惠渠灌区灌溉水资源优化调度的难题,显著提高了灌溉水资源的管理水平。通过将2008年实际数据输入运行结果分析来看,系统能够胜任辅助灌溉决策之重任。 相似文献
2.
气候变化可以改变积雪持续的时间、雪盖储水量及积雪开始融化的时间,从而影响土壤水分时空分配。利用TFACE（temperature free air controlled enhancement）的增温装置,在中国科学院天山积雪与雪崩研究站的融雪季节进行为期一个月的室外增温试验。试验包括3种处理：自然状态、增温Ⅰ和增温Ⅱ。结果表明：气温的升高和增温区内局部空气热对流加入的黑色粉尘物质加速了积雪的消融;在增温Ⅰ和增温Ⅱ条件下,积雪将提前19 d和25 d 消融,相应的各土层土壤水分也出现不同程度的增加。与此同时,土壤水分最大值也提前13 d和22 d。土壤水分极值的提前预示着以融雪水为重要来源、以超渗产流模式为主的河流洪峰的提前,或者超渗产流模式向蓄满产流模式的转变。这将给区域内水资源的时空分布和管理分配带来影响。 相似文献
3.
F. Salinari S. Giosu V. Rossi F. N. Tubiello C. Rosenzweig M. L. Gullino 《EPPO Bulletin》2007,37(2):317-326
The global climate is changing. Much research has already been carried out to assess the potential impacts of climate change on plant physiology. However, effects on plant disease have not yet been deeply studied. In this paper, an empirical disease model for primary infection of downy mildew on grapevine was elaborated and used to project future disease dynamics under climate change. The disease model was run under the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) and future scenarios of downy mildew primary outbreaks were generated at several sites all over the word for three future dates: 2030, 2050, 2080. Results suggested a potential general advance of first disease outbreaks, both in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, for all three future decades considered. The advance is predicted to be from about a minimum of one day in South Africa in 2030 to a maximum of 28 days in Chile and China in 2080. The advance in the outbreak time could lead to more severe infections, due to the polycyclic nature of the pathogen. Therefore, changes in the timing and frequency of fungicide treatments could be expected in the future, with a possible increase in the costs of disease management. 相似文献
4.
哈密地区冰川变化趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
雪冰融水是哈密地区地表径流的一种主要方式。受全球气候变暖的影响,哈密地区的冰川处于加速融化的阶段,水资源成为哈密地区发展的主要瓶颈。通过对哈密地区冰川物质平衡、面积、厚度、冰川区水文气象等参数的观测,预测冰川水文和水资源的变化,为更好地利用好哈密地区有限的水资源,为可持续发展,提出应对措施。 相似文献
5.
Ecosystems in high-altitude regions are more sensitive and respond more rapidly than other ecosystems to global climate warming.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)of China is an ecologically fragile zone that is sensitive to global climate warming.It is of great importance to study the changes in aboveground biomass and species diversity of alpine meadows on the QTP under predicted future climate warming.In this study,we selected an alpine meadow on the QTP as the study object and used infrared radiators as the warming device for a simulation experiment over eight years(2011-2018).We then analyzed the dynamic changes in aboveground biomass and species diversity of the alpine meadow at different time scales,including an early stage of warming(2011-2013)and a late stage of warming(2016-2018),in order to explore the response of alpine meadows to short-term(three years)and long-term warming(eight years).The results showed that the short-term warming increased air temperature by 0.31℃and decreased relative humidity by 2.54%,resulting in the air being warmer and drier.The long-term warming increased air temperature and relative humidity by 0.19℃and 1.47%,respectively,and the air tended to be warmer and wetter.The short-term warming increased soil temperature by 2.44℃and decreased soil moisture by 12.47%,whereas the long-term warming increased soil temperature by 1.76℃and decreased soil moisture by 9.90%.This caused the shallow soil layer to become warmer and drier under both short-term and long-term warming.Furthermore,the degree of soil drought was alleviated with increased warming duration.Under the long-term warming,the importance value and aboveground biomass of plants in different families changed.The importance values of grasses and sedges decreased by 47.56%and 3.67%,respectively,while the importance value of weeds increased by 1.37%.Aboveground biomass of grasses decreased by 36.55%,while those of sedges and weeds increased by 8.09%and 15.24%,respectively.The increase in temperature had a non-significant effect on species diversity.The species diversity indices increased at the early stage of warming and decreased at the late stage of warming,but none of them reached significant levels(P>0.05).Species diversity had no significant correlation with soil temperature and soil moisture under both short-term and long-term warming.Soil temperature and aboveground biomass were positively correlated in the control plots(P=0.014),but negatively correlated under the long-term warming(P=0.013).Therefore,eight years of warming aggravated drought in the shallow soil layer,which is beneficial for the growth of weeds but not for the growth of grasses.Warming changed the structure of alpine meadow communities and had a certain impact on the community species diversity.Our studies have great significance for the protection and effective utilization of alpine vegetation,as well as for the prevention of grassland degradation or desertification in high-altitude regions. 相似文献
6.
在全球气候变暖的影响下,青藏高原作为气候变化的敏感区,受到人们越来越多的重视。江河源区是我国长江和黄河以及国际河流澜沧江的发源地,同时它又是高原的重要组成部分。近几十年来,沙漠化现象在该地区的快速发展蔓延已经引起社会和学术界的广泛关注。本文从沙漠化的发展态势、沙漠化的驱动因子、沙漠化的治理措施等方面的研究现状出发,对江河源区的沙漠化研究状况进行了综述,并对研究中存在的不足和未来的研究重点进行了分析。 相似文献
7.
The extreme temperature has more outstanding impact on ecology and water resources in arid regions than the average temperature. Using the downscaled daily temperature data from 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP) models of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP) and the observation data, this paper analyzed the changes in temporal and spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes, i.e., the maximum temperature(Tmax) and minimum temperature(Tmin), in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China over the period 2020–2050 based on the evaluation of preferred Multi-Model Ensemble(MME). Results showed that the Partial Least Square ensemble mean participated by Preferred Models(PM-PLS) was better representing the temporal change and spatial distribution of temperature extremes during 1961–2005 and was chosen to project the future change. In 2020–2050, the increasing rate of Tmax(Tmin) under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 will be 2.0(1.6) times that under RCP4.5, and that of Tmin will be larger than that of Tmax under each corresponding RCP. Tmin will keep contributing more to global warming than Tmax. The spatial distribution characteristics of Tmax and Tmin under the two RCPs will overall the same; but compared to the baseline period(1986–2005), the increments of Tmax and Tmin in plain area will be larger than those in mountainous area. With the emission concentration increased, however, the response of Tmax in mountainous area will be more sensitive than that in plain area, and that of Tmin will be equivalently sensitive in mountainous area and plain area. The impacts induced by Tmin will be universal and farreaching. Results of spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes indicate that large increases in the magnitude of warming in the basin may occur in the future. The projections can provide the scientific basis for water and land plan management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the inland river basin. 相似文献
8.
干旱区植物耗水量的研究与进展 总被引：15，自引：2，他引：13
本文论述了国内外在干旱区植物耗水方面的研究概况 ,介绍了干旱区植物耗水测量的手段与 5种不同方法 ,对影响干旱区植物耗水的因素和不同植物对干旱环境的适应及响应进行了评价 ,对干旱区不同植物的蒸腾速率变化以及植物对强蒸腾作用的响应进行了分析 ,并提出植物耗水量今后应重点进行植物生理生态数据库建设和生态耗水模型研究 ,在微观尺度 ,利用分子生物技术研究干旱区植物抵御高蒸腾降低生物耗水量的机制 ;在宏观尺度 ,从研究单株植物的生物耗水向群落、生态系统及全球尺度方向转变 ;在全球变暖的形势下 ,研究干旱区降水变化趋势和植物在生物耗水方面的响应。 相似文献
9.
Climate change may affect water resources by altering various processes in natural ecosystems. Dynamic and statistical downscaling methods are commonly used to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. Objectively, both methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. In the present study, we assessed the impacts of climate change on water resources during the future periods (2020-2029 and 2040-2049) in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, Xinjiang, China, and discussed the uncertainties in the research processes by integrating dynamic and statistical downscaling methods (regional climate models (RCMs) and general circulation modes (GCMs)) and utilizing these outputs. The reference period for this study is 1990-1999. The climate change trend is represented by three bias-corrected RCMs (i.e., Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA), Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), and Seoul National University Meso-scale Model version 5 (SUN-MM5)) and an ensemble of GCMs on the basis of delta change method under two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We applied the hydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model which uses the RCMs/GCMs outputs as input to analyze the impacts of climate change on the stream flow and peak flow of the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin. The simulation of climate factors under future scenarios indicates that both temperature and precipitation in the study area will increase in the future compared with the reference period, with the largest increase of annual mean temperature and largest percentage increase of mean annual precipitation being of 2.4°C and 38.4%, respectively. Based on the results from bias correction of climate model outputs, we conclude that the accuracy of RCM (regional climate model) simulation is much better for temperature than for precipitation. The percentage increase in precipitation simulated by the three RCMs is generally higher than that simulated by the ensemble of GCMs. As for the changes in seasonal precipitation, RCMs exhibit a large percentage increase in seasonal precipitation in the wet season, while the ensemble of GCMs shows a large percentage increase in the dry season. Most of the hydrological simulations indicate that the total stream flow will decrease in the future due to the increase of evaporation, and the maximum percentage decrease can reach up to 22.3%. The possibility of peak flow increasing in the future is expected to higher than 99%. These results indicate that less water is likely to be available in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin in the future, and that the temporal distribution of flow may become more concentrated. 相似文献
10.
21世纪开都-孔雀河流域未来气候变化情景预估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate
and Hydrology Projections (DCHP)提供的31个 CMIP5降尺度数据和CRU逐月气温、降水格点数据集，通过评估PLS(偏最小二乘回归)、RR（岭回归）和EE（等权平均）3种多模式集合平均预估模型对历史气候变化的模拟能力，确定最优集合方法，进而预估开都-孔雀河流域21世纪气候变化情景。结果表明：① 所建立的PLS模型对流域的气温和降水具有较好的模拟能力，尤其对气温的模拟， r值均达到了0.64以上，明显优于降水（0.19~0.36），但存在空间异质性；② 21世纪开都-孔雀河流域各子区气温呈显著增加趋势，且RCP8.5情景下的增温速率〔0.58~0.67 ℃·（10a）-1〕是RCP4.5情景下〔0.25~0.31 ℃·（10a）-1〕的2倍以上，21世纪中叶是2种情景产生明显差异的开始。整个流域增温速率由西北山区向东南荒漠区逐渐增大；③
未来降水在不同排放情景下变化速率的分布状况略有不同，但均呈显著增加趋势，且RCP8.5情景下的增加速率〔1.22%~1.54%·（10a）-1〕总体上高于RCP4.5〔0.80%~1.32%·（10a）-1〕。 相似文献
11.
GONG Yidan 《干旱区科学》2020,12(3):462-472
Soil water is a critical resource, and as such is the focus of considerable physical research. Characterization of the distribution and spatial variability of soil water content(SWC) offers important agronomic and environmental information. Estimation of non-stationary and non-linear SWC distribution at different scales is a research challenge. Based on this context, we performed a case study on the Chinese Loess Plateau, with objectives of investigating spatial variability of SWC and soil properties(i.e., soil particle composition, organic matter and bulk density), and determining multi-scale correlations between SWC and soil properties. A total of 86 in situ sampling sites were selected and 516 soil samples(0–60 cm depth with an interval of 10 cm) were collected in May and June of 2019 along the Yangling-Wugong-Qianxian transect, with a length of 25.5 km, in a typical wheat-corn rotation region of the Chinese Loess Plateau. Classical statistics and empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method were applied to evaluate characteristics of the overall and scale-specific spatial variation of SWC, and to explore scale-specific correlations between SWC and soil properties. Results showed that the spatial variability of SWC along the Yangling-Wugong-Qianxian transect was medium to weak, with a variability coefficient range of 0.06–0.18, and it was gradually decreased as scale increased. We categorized the overall SWC for each soil layer under an intrinsic mode function(IMF) number based on the scale of occurrence, and found that the component IMF1 exhibited the largest contribution rates of 36.45%–56.70%. Additionally, by using EMD method, we categorized the general variation of SWC under different numbers of IMFs according to occurrence scale, and the results showed that the calculated scales among SWC for each soil layer increased in correspondence with higher IMF numbers. Approximately 78.00% of the total variance of SWC was extracted in IMF1 and IMF2. Generally, soil texture was the dominant control on SWC, and the influence of the three types of soil properties(soil particle composition, organic matter and bulk density) was more prominent at larger scales along the sampling transect. The influential factors of soil water spatial distribution can be identified and ranked on the basis of the decomposed signal from the current approach, thereby providing critical information for other researchers and natural resource managers. 相似文献
12.
农田土壤有机碳的影响因素及其研究 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
大气温室效应气体N2O、CO2增多与全球气温变暖有着密切的关系,由于农业活动导致的碳排放量占碳总排放量的25%,因此研究农田土壤有机碳的影响因素,对增加农田碳素固定和保持,减少由于不合理的土地使用而导致大量CO2的排放,维持农业和生物圈生态系统的可持续发展有着重要意义。本文分析了温度、水分、土地开垦、休闲和撩荒、耕翻、轮作、秸秆还田、肥料管理等对土壤有机碳的影响。减少翻耕次数,增加秸秆还田,优化氮、磷、钾等养分用量及配比,是提高农田,尤其是旱地农田土壤有机碳含量,培肥、改良土壤的重要途径。 相似文献
13.
新疆平原湖泊最优运行水位评价指标体系初探 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
上世纪中叶以来,在人类活动和气候变化的双重影响下,新疆大多数平原湖泊咸化、萎缩甚至干涸,湖泊生态环境严重恶化。近十年以来,在全球气候普遍变暖的情况下,新疆气候逐渐向暖湿转变[1],气温升高、降水增加,部分湖泊水域又呈扩大趋势,给湖泊水资源的可持续利用带来新的挑战。如何确定湖泊最优运行水位,是实现湖泊水资源可持续利用的首要问题。本文旨在通过总结与分析影响新疆平原湖泊水位的因素及湖泊水位变化对湖区生态环境和社会济发展的影响,来构建新疆平原湖泊最优运行水位的评价指标体系。 相似文献
14.
Climate warming will cause differences in precipitation distribution and changes in hydrological cycle both at regional and global scales. Arid lands of Central Asia(ALCA), one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes in the world, is likely to be strongly influenced by climate warming. Understanding the precipitation variations in the past is an important prerequisite for predicting future precipitation trends and thus managing regional water resources in such an arid region. In this study, we used run theory, displacement, extreme deviation theory, precipitation concentration index(PCI), Mann-Kendall rank correlation and climatic trend coefficient methods to analyze the precipitation in wet and dry years, changes in precipitation over multiple-time scales, variability of precipitation and its rate of change based on the monthly precipitation data during 1950–2000 from 344 meteorological stations in the ALCA. The occurrence probability of a single year with abundant precipitation was higher than that of a single year with less precipitation. The average duration of extreme drought in the entire area was 5 years, with an average annual water deficit of 34.6 mm(accounting for 11.2% of the average annual precipitation over the duration). The occurrence probability of a single wet year was slightly higher than that of a single dry year. The occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive wet years was 5.8%, while the occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive dry years was 6.2%. In the center of the study area, the distribution of precipitation was stable at an intra-annual timescale, with small changes at an inter-annual timescale. In the western part of the study area, the monthly variation of precipitation was high at an inter-annual timescale. There were clear seasonal changes in precipitation(PCI=12–36) in the ALCA. Precipitation in spring and winter accounted for 37.7% and 24.4% of the annual precipitation, respectively. There was a significant inter-annual change in precipitation in the arid Northwest China(PCI=24–34). Annual precipitation increased significantly(P=0.05) in 17.4% of all the meteorological stations over the study period. The probability of an increase in annual precipitation was 75.6%, with this increase being significant(P=0.05) at 34.0% of all the meteorological stations. The average increasing rate in annual precipitation was 3.9 mm/10a(P=0.01) in the ALCA. There were significant increasing trends(P=0.01) in precipitation in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with rates of 2.6, 3.1 and 3.7 mm/10 a, respectively. 相似文献
15.
全球气候变暖对京津冀地区极端天气气候事件的影响及防灾减灾对策 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
张可慧 《干旱区资源与环境》2011,(10):122-125
在综合分析全球气候变暖对极端天气气候事件影响的基础上,详细分析了京津冀地区气候变化对全球气候变暖的响应。研究表明：近百年来该区气温与全球气候变暖呈明显的正响应,而降水则表现为明显的负响应。全球气候变暖对该区极端天气气候事件的可能影响主要表现为：气温上升明显,高温热害天气增多;物候季节提前或反常、极端气候灾害频发;极端降... 相似文献
16.
Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin(CRB), a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT). The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961–1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models(GCMs) in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under three radiative forcing scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In this study, the period 1966–1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016–2045 and 2066–2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identified in the average annual runoff in glacier(–26.6% to –1.0%), snow(–21.4% to +1.1%) and streamflow(–27.7% to –6.6%) for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection. 相似文献
17.
近50年岱海生态与环境变化分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
岱海是我国北方地区的一个内陆湖,历史时期受构造运动和气候变化的影响,湖泊经历多次扩张和收缩,最大水域面积曾达到760 km2。近50年来,随着全球气候变暖及湖区农业活动的加强,岱海的补给水量急剧减少,自20世纪70年代以来,岱海水位持续下降,且下降速度呈现出明显的加快趋势;与此同时,湖水的矿化度不断升高,咸化现象已十分明显;受农业活动和城镇生活的影响,岱海水体的富营养问题也日益突出;其原始的自然环境发生了巨大变化。通过对各影响因素进行分析,结果表明,近50年来岱海环境恶化主要是由人类对流域水土资源的过度开发利用和对污废水的不合理排放造成的,气候变化只是起到了加速强化的作用。 相似文献
18.
气候变暖后我国作物害虫发生趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
全球气候变暖及其影响已引起世界的普遍关注。根据我国气候变化的特点及气候对害虫的影响，本文分析了气候变暖后我国作物害虫发生的趋势，并提出了可能的防治对策。随着气候变暖，作物害虫生长发育速率将加快，年发生世代数可能增加，越冬界线将向北移动，为害将加重。但害虫向北扩展的速度将受到害虫所依赖的寄主作物向北迁移速度的限制 相似文献
19.
历史时期气候变化和人类活动对毛乌素地区沙漠化的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过对历史时期毛乌素地区气候变化、人类活动和沙漠化过程的综合分析认为,历史时期毛乌素地区的沙漠化呈逐渐加速的趋势;唐朝之前本区沙漠化主要受气候变化的控制,之后人类活动的影响越来越明显;不论是冷湿还是暖湿气候,良好的水分条件总是有利于沙漠化的逆转,而农业活动总是会造成沙漠化的扩展。今后本区的沙漠化是扩展还是逆转在很大程度上将取决于全球变暖对毛乌素地区降水量的影响以及农业和牧业所占的份额。 相似文献
20.
Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Runoff is a major component of the water cycle,and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions.This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model(DTVGM)into the Community Land Model(CLM 3.5),replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2010.Then,future runoff(2010–2100)was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP)emission scenarios.After that,the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed,and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)analysis method.Finally,the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated.The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010–2100,whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario,with a slow increase after the 2050 s.Additionally,the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale,indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods.The longest dry period was approximately 15 years(2040–2055)for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years(2045–2070)for the RCP 4.5 scenario.However,the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045.Under these scenarios,the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe.Therefore,adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources. 相似文献