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1.
Echinocactus platyacanthus is a candy barrel cactus endemic to Mexico and an endangered species owing to its exploitation and the destruction of its habitat. The population dynamic of this species is analyzed using matrix models. Three consecutive censuses were carried out (1997, 1998, and 1999) for six populations of this species in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve. Fruit contain many seeds (mean = 171 ± S.E. 11.03 seeds/fruit); seedling establishment and survival are low (2 × 10−6), and fecundity increases as the diameter of the individuals increases (62 seeds in adult 1-4322 in adult 4). The rates of population growth (λ) range from 0.9285 to 1.0005. Elasticity values for demographic processes indicate that the stasis of the adults is the greatest contribution (S = 0.982), followed by growth (G = 0.017) and fecundity (F = 0.001) to λ. The populations are located in the lower left corner of the demographic triangle; however, there are variations for a given population from one year to the next. Life table response experiments indicate that although there are local variations, the most important differences in the values of λ between populations and between years are associated with changes in the stasis of the adults. The disturbance index is not directly related to population density or to the current value of λ. The protection of adult E. platyacanthus must be taken into account for the management of this species and its conservation in the study area.  相似文献   

2.
The 1991-1994 reintroductions of Florida endangered Pseudophoenix sargentii to 13 Florida Keys sites represent a rare example of a successful multi-agency long-term effort to conserve a long-lived palm. To assess reintroduction success, we compared population demographics with and without reintroduced plants and conducted population viability analyses. Since 1991, the wild population has increased 6.4-fold. Survival from 2000-2004 was 94%, growth was positive (λ = 1.013), and there was no predicted extinction risk. Recent wild population growth is attributed to good seedling recruitment and removing the greatest threats. After 14 years, reintroductions had 43% survival, increased total plants in the wild by 27%, and expanded the species’ distribution. Reintroduced plants had faster maturation rates, improved population age structure, and enhanced population growth (λ = 1.032). Success varied with transplant year, location, microsite, and original transplant size. Failures in 1991 and at some historic sites emphasize the need for a multi-year, multi-site approach to reintroductions to buffer against stochastic losses. Rockland hammocks and the tops of coastal berms had greatest plant growth and survival. Large transplants had the greatest survival. Because no reintroduced plants are reproductive, transitions between stages are extremely slow, and plants may require >30 years to mature, continued institutional dedication to long-term monitoring will be required to assess whether the populations are self-sustaining. Horticultural expertise and ex situ collections complimented support of land managing agencies for the species’ preservation. These first rare plant reintroductions to Florida State Parks opened avenues for more plant conservation efforts and public interpretation.  相似文献   

3.
Although demographic models have become increasingly important tools in plant conservation, few models have considered the implications of seed banks for population persistence. Based on a 15-year study of the threatened herb, Helenium virginicum, we created a stage-class transition matrix to model the population dynamics of the plant. Our goal was to determine the role of the seed bank in population persistence and in the design of monitoring programs for the plant. Using data from marked plants, a long-term study of seed viability, and a seed bank census, we created a deterministic model and three stochastic models. The stochastic models were a model in which yearly correlations among parameters were retained, a model in which parameters were uncorrelated, and a model in which parameters were derived from log-normal distribution. We also constructed a fourth model in which we assumed a minimum seed lifetime consistent with the seed viability data. Both elasticity and perturbation analysis suggested that seed survival within the seed bank had by far the largest effects on the population growth rate (λ), with 47-64% of the change in λ being controlled by seed survival. Correlations among life history parameters had little effect on λ in the original models, but substantially reduced λ (from 0.97 to 0.86) when seed survival was limited. Given the importance of the seed bank and the high yearly variability in adult plant density, we used simulations to compare power to detect declines with seed bank samples versus censuses of adult plants. The power of adult plant censuses was extremely low (13-22%). The power of seed bank censuses was substantially higher (48-59%), but was limited by large pulses of recruitment to the seed bank in good years. Power was only moderately reduced when seeds were sampled every two or four years instead of yearly (from 59% to 48%). Together, our results suggest that seed survival is crucial to persistence of Helenium populations and that future empirical studies should focus on understanding the factors that affect seed survival. In addition, managers should consider seed bank censuses rather than above-ground plants when designing monitoring programs for plants in variable environments where above-ground plants vary greatly from year to year.  相似文献   

4.
Germination of wild and managed populations of columnar cacti was compared to analyze differences associated to management intensity. The species studied: Polaskia chende, Escontria chiotilla, Myrtillocactus schenckii, Polaskia chichipe, and Stenocereus pruinosus are in a gradient from lower to higher management intensity, respectively. Within each species wild, silvicultural, and cultivated populations also represent a gradient from lower to higher management intensity. We hypothesized that seeds of plants under higher management intensity would require more water to germinate than others since managed environments are relatively wetter than unmanaged environments. Such pattern could be visualized within and among species according to management intensity. We tested germination of seeds from different populations of the different species to the water potentials: 0.0, ?0.2, ?0.4, ?0.6, ?0.8, and ?1.0 MPa. In all species studied seeds of managed populations had significantly more mass than seeds from wild populations. Each species had different susceptibility to water availability decrease, which could be related to particular adaptations to drought resistance. Stenocereus pruinosus and Polaskia chende were the most and least susceptible species, respectively. In control treatments of all species, seeds of managed populations had higher germination rate than seeds from wild populations, but when water availability decreased the pattern was the contrary. Our results suggest that artificial selection for larger fruits and heavier seeds in plants established in wetter environments have affected germination patterns. Although species have particular critical points of water availability for germination, differences in germination patterns are more pronounced according to management and artificial selection intensity.  相似文献   

5.
Stenocereus eruca is a postrate columnar cactus whose regeneration seems to occur mainly through clonal propagation. It is a narrow endemic species of the Sonoran desert in Baja California Sur and currently considered as threatened under Mexican legislation. In this paper we describe the demography of ramets in four populations along its distribution range and the demography of genets in one population during a 3-year-study period in order to evaluate its conservation status. We also analyze the relative contribution of sexual reproduction and clonal propagation to population maintenance and provide guidelines for the formulation of conservation programs. Elasticity analyses were used to explore the relative contribution of sexual and clonal recruitment to projected population growth rate (λ). During the three years of study, regeneration occurred only through clonal propagation while sexually derived seedlings were not detected within or outside the permanent plots. Our demographic data showed that the four population of S. eruca are in equilibrium (λ ≈ 1), and elasticity analyses showed that the relative contribution to λ of clonal recruitment was larger than sexual recruitment, at least during the analyzed ecological time scale. Simulations showed that removing sexual recruitment had a minor impact on λ, but the absence of clonal propagation alone was sufficient to keep below unity. We propose the establishment of at least one reserve with adequate protection from human disturbance to conserve S. eruca.  相似文献   

6.
Vaccination programs are occasionally used on wild mammal populations with conservation goals. In the case of the European wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus, vaccination campaigns against rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD) have been widely applied to enhance rabbit populations, but their overall effects have not been compared. I used a modelling approach to compare the effects of several vaccination strategies on the growth rate of wild rabbit populations. For all simulated vaccination strategies, vaccination campaigns yielded positive or negative population growth rates, depending on rabbit population dynamics and subsequent RHD dynamics. Growth rate was negative when the proportion of RHD-seropositive adult rabbits was low or medium before vaccination, which occurred in populations at low rabbit density. Given that these low density populations are mainly targeted by vaccination campaigns, the model suggested that current immunization programs may be causing harmful effects on many rabbit populations. The best annual period to carry out vaccination campaigns was determined by the age-class targeted for immunization. If the RHD dynamics were not known, vaccination of only juvenile rabbits seemed to be the most conservative option, since it minimized the probability of yielding negative growth rates, whereas vaccination of only adult rabbits was the worst option. These findings suggest that prior knowledge of RHD dynamics in populations subject to immunization is essential to minimize the risk of harmful effects.  相似文献   

7.
Clianthus is an acutely threatened, bird-pollinated genus endemic to New Zealand, represented in the wild by only one population of C. puniceus and 11 populations of C. maximus, each with very few individuals (typically <10 per population). A limited number of named Clianthus cultivars of indeterminate origin are commonly grown as ornamentals. Genomic DNA from individual Clianthus plants was extracted for genetic diversity analysis using a range of molecular markers, including amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). Data were analysed by the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averaging (UPGMA), the generation of Neighbor-Joining trees, and analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA). Genetic distance between wild populations of C. maximus was highly correlated with geographical distance between populations. Sequencing of intron 2 of a putative partial homologue of the floral meristem identity gene LEAFY (CmLFY) revealed a 7 bp deletion that was exhibited homozygously in the more northern populations of C. maximus, and in all individuals tested from the sole population of C. puniceus. This deletion was not exhibited in more southern populations of C. maximus. Further, one geographically intermediate population contained some plants that were heterozygous for the deletion. Parallel analyses of cultivated Clianthus genotypes, more than half of which were also homozygous for the 7 bp deletion, showed that these were not representative of the broad, but threatened, diversity remaining in the wild. It is argued that wild populations of C. maximus are unlikely to have arisen from the escape of plants from cultivation. Conservation effort should focus on the protection and study of the extant plants in these wild populations, rather than on the introduction of disturbance regimes to uncover potential seed banks.  相似文献   

8.
African medicinal plant species are increasingly threatened by overexploitation and habitat loss, but little is known about the conservation status and ecology of many medicinal species. Mondia whitei (Apocynaceae, formerly Asclepiadaceae), a medicinal liana found in Sub-Saharan Africa, has been subject to intensive harvesting and habitat loss. We surveyed M. whitei in Kakamega Forest, the largest of three remnant Kenyan forests known to contain the species. In 174 100 m2 plots, we quantified the status of M. whitei and investigated its relationships with land use, disturbance and harvesting. With average adult densities of 101 plants/ha, M. whitei is not locally rare in Kakamega. However, the absence of flowers and fruits, together with a spatial disconnect between adults and juveniles, suggests that sexual regeneration is patchy or infrequent. Comparing among habitat types, we found that plants were most abundant in regenerating indigenous forest managed by the Forest Department, which permits some extractive uses. Conversely, plants were largest in indigenous forest managed by the Kenya Wildlife Service, which prohibits extractive uses. Most anthropogenic disturbances were not associated with M. whitei, but plant occurrence and density were higher along paths used by livestock than along other types of paths. Larger individuals appeared to be preferentially harvested, but adult plants were more likely to occur in harvested plots than un-harvested plots. This work emphasizes that restrictions on disturbance and extractive use do not automatically promote medicinal plant conservation. Moreover, harvesting may have important genetic and demographic consequences that are overlooked by studies focused on numerical losses.  相似文献   

9.
Although conservation and restoration practitioners have focused on maximizing aboveground population size and seed set of rare plants, a clear understanding of seed bank dynamics is crucial to managing these species. Santa Cruz tarplant (Holocarpha macradenia) is a threatened annual forb restricted to coastal prairie habitats in central California. Holocarpha produces disk achenes germinating within a year of production and ray achenes forming a persistent seed bank. We constructed both deterministic and stochastic demographic models for a restored Holocarpha population, using demographic rates measured separately for unmanipulated plants and plants growing in plots where vegetation was clipped. The deterministic models indicated that regardless of germination from the seed bank, the population would decline without clipping or similar treatments that enhance survival and reproductive output. Deterministic models showed only a slight positive effect of increased ray seed germination rates on population growth, which would need to be balanced against a potential loss of buffering against environmental variation as the dormant seed bank was reduced. Our stochastic simulations suggested that extinction risk for Holocarpha populations would be minimized by intermediate levels of ray seed germination. Thus, managers should focus on improving the performance of aboveground plants before considering actions to stimulate germination, since the former will yield a greater increase in deterministic population growth and not sacrifice any buffering effect of the seed bank. This case study emphasizes the importance of considering dormant seeds and seed banks in designing successful restoration and management strategies for plant species at risk of extinction.  相似文献   

10.
Several predator species at risk of extinction in Southwestern Europe are dependent on the population density of European wild rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus. Rabbit populations in the region, however, have recently undergone dramatic decreases in population density, which may be exacerbated by hunting. Current hunting policies set the autumn-winter season, just before the start of rabbit reproduction, as the main hunting season, and previous theoretical models have estimated that the current hunting season may have the greatest negative impact on rabbit abundance and should be changed. We utilised a model for rabbit population dynamics to determine the effects of the timing of hunting during two seasons, summer and autumn, on the tendency of rabbit populations to be over-harvested and on the number of rabbits hunted. This model included field estimates of age- and sex-selection biases of hunting by shotgun. Scenarios with different hunting rates and sex- and age-selection probabilities of hunting were simulated for populations with different turnover levels and with and without compensatory mortality mechanisms. Field estimations showed that hunting in summer was juvenile-biased whereas autumn hunting was juvenile- and male-biased. In contrast to previous findings, our modelling results suggested that hunting in autumn may be the most conservative option for harvesting of rabbit populations, since these populations were more prone to be over-harvested during the summer. The differences between the two seasons in number of rabbits hunted were dependent on population dynamics and hunting sex- and age-selection probabilities. Our findings suggest that altering of current hunting policies would not optimise the exploitation or conservation of wild rabbit populations, but that the latter may be improved by some changes in the timing of hunting.  相似文献   

11.
As a part of a wide project to determine the conservation status and collecting expeditions of wild plant genetic resources of genus Brassica (species n = 9) of the Iberian Peninsula, twenty-nine wild populations of Brassica oleracea L. were characterised using the isoenzymatic profiles of seeds collected from their natural habitats. The zymograms, obtained using bulking seeds, identified samples faster than other methodologies, which could be useful in seed bank management as well as the regular monitoring of the status of in situ conservation. Five isoenzymatic systems were analysed considering the electrophoretic phenotype of the whole population (not individuals). Using enzymatic bands as qualitative characters, data were evaluated using phenetic clustering methods unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages. The enzyme systems showed high polymorphism levels, and each studied population of B. oleracea showed a characteristic zymogram in each of the assayed enzyme systems. The clustering analysis using the Dice coefficient showed that most of the studied populations can be considered significantly different from each other. This study proposes a rapid screening strategy for obtaining the electrophoretic profiles of samples and comparing population patterns. Two main of conclusions can be drawn from the results of this work: (1) compared to other molecular techniques and the efficiency and reliability of isoenzyme analyses, this method appears to be a useful tool for a rapid characterisation of samples; (2) in situ observations of populations suggest that conservation status of wild B. oleracea in their natural habitat in Spain can be considered satisfactory.  相似文献   

12.
Noninvasive genetic monitoring has the potential to estimate vital rates essential for conservation and management of many species. In a long-term genetic capture-mark-recapture study using scats we evaluated temporal variation in adult survival in a wolverine (Gulo gulo) population in southern Norway. In contrast to most previous studies of large mammals we found evidence for negative density dependence in adult survival in this large carnivore. Both sexes showed the same pattern of density dependence, with higher annual survival rates in adult females than males. In addition, we also found an additive mortality effect of harvesting in the population, resulting in the lowest adult survival rates at a combination of high population density and high harvest rate. The additive effects of density and harvest on adult survival of wolverines have relevance to the conservation and management of solitary carnivores with strong intrasexual territoriality, especially for species where combats among conspecifics can cause serious injury or even mortality.  相似文献   

13.
Over 100 native herbaceous forest perennials are harvested in the United States. Management of these populations for continued survival requires information on the long-term effects of varied harvesting levels on populations of forest perennials. Allium tricoccum Ait. is a species that is harvested throughout its range for its edible bulb. We examined the recovery of A. tricoccum populations over a 5-year period following experimental harvests of different intensity to predict the number of years required to return to pre-harvest levels and to establish guidelines for sustainable harvesting. Our harvest treatments included removal of 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% of plants within experimental plots. Treatments were repeated at three sites. Population recovery was monitored for 4 years at two sites and 7 years at one site. We found a relationship between the level of harvest and the negative impacts on populations of A. tricoccum, with limited population recovery in the 4 years following harvesting. We projected recovery times as a function of harvest level using a population projection model. Deterministic projections of recovery time ranged from 148 years for a 95% harvest to 2.5 years for a 5% harvest. Incorporating stochasticity into our projections increased the uncertainty in our estimates of recovery time. For example the recovery time from a 5% harvest ranged from 1 to 89 years (95% confidence limit). Based on our results, a 10% harvest once every 10 years would, on average, be a sustainable level of harvest for A. tricoccum in southern Appalachian forests.  相似文献   

14.
The wild population of the palm Ptychosperma macarthurii near Darwin, in monsoonal northern Australia, is regionally endangered and provides a focus to illustrate a range of issues pertinent to conservation of rainforest habitat. Surveys in 1990 found that several populations exhibited a polarised size class structure typified by large adults and small juvenile plants. Over the following decade, in the absence of wildfire and in a period of reduced disturbance from introduced buffalo (Bubalus bubalis), cattle (Bos indicus) and pig (Sus scrofa), sufficient small juvenile plants survived and grew so as to infill the intermediate size classes. Three stage (bifid, juvenile and adult) transition matrix models characterised the population as declining under all observed conditions (intrinsic rate of increase: unburnt + few animals 0.9850; unburnt + many animals 0.9584; burnt <1 year 0.8737; burnt 1-2 years 0.9146; burnt >2 years 0.9937). In the absence of fire, simulations conducted to explore management options revealed a positive rate of increase with exclusion of introduced animals. With only partial introduced animal control or supplementation with juvenile plants, the median rate of increase remained negative. The regional population is at risk by more frequent and more intense fire due to the invasion of exotic grass species and land use changes in the catchment which result in an increased drying of the rainforest habitat. Ongoing decline is the most likely outcome in the absence of effective management intervention.  相似文献   

15.
We developed an interactive management model for wild and captive populations of the ploughshare tortoise or angonoka, Geochelone yniphora. Interactive management is based on the translocation of individuals between wild and captive populations to simulate a metapopulation. Demographic parameters of one captive and two wild populations of this rare tortoise were used to conduct a metapopulation viability analysis (MVA). The effectiveness of the conservation strategy proposed for this species was then evaluated by modifying the probability of extinction and growth of the metapopulation over a fixed period of time. Several alternative scenarios of interactive management were then tested and ranked in terms of their effect on the viability of the metapopulation. The model predicted that catastrophic events such as bush fires would likely have a negative effect on the future of remaining wild populations. However, the model also predicted that the use of captive-born offspring to establish additional wild populations would decrease the risk of extinction of the metapopulation as a whole. We believe that, when supported by sound knowledge of the demographic parameters of a species, the use of MVA as part of an interactive management program can be an effective conservation tool that allows assessment of the probable response of both captive and wild populations to different management alternatives. One of the most interesting aspects of this interactive management approach is the link between in situ and ex situ conservation.  相似文献   

16.
To preserve populations of endangered bee species, sound knowledge of their maximum foraging distance between nest and host plants is crucial. Previous investigations predicted maximum foraging distances of 100-200 m for small bee species and up to 1100 m for very large species based on mainly indirect methods. The present study applied a new and direct approach to experimentally investigate maximum foraging distances in solitary bees. One endangered and two common species of different body sizes, all of which restrict pollen foraging to a single plant genus, were established in a landscape lacking their specific host plants. Females were forced to collect pollen on potted host plants that were successively placed in increasing distance from fixed nesting stands. The maximum foraging distance recorded for the small Hylaeus punctulatissimus was 1100 m, for the medium sized Chelostoma rapunculi 1275 m and for the large Hoplitis adunca 1400 m, indicating that maximum foraging distances at species level have been underestimated. However, the capability to use resources on such a large spatial scale applied only to a small percentage of individuals as 50% of the females of H. punctulatissimus and H. adunca did not forage at distances longer than 100-225 m and 300 m, respectively. This finding suggests that a close neighbourhood of nesting and foraging habitat within few hundred meters is crucial to maintain populations of these species, and that threshold distances at which half of the population discontinues foraging are a more meaningful parameter for conservation practice than the species specific maximum foraging distances.  相似文献   

17.
A semi-annual eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) population became extinct in 2004. It had flourished for many decades at Terschelling in the western Wadden Sea, one of the most eutrophied locations where seagrass growth has been recorded. Semi-annual populations survive the winter season by seed (annual), and by incidental plant survival (semi-annual). We compared seed bank dynamics and fate of plants between this impacted site and a reference site in the winter of 1990-1991. Seed bank density at Terschelling was extremely low (5-35 seeds m−2) in comparison to the reference site (>60 seeds m−2) and also in comparison to seed bank densities of (semi-)annual eelgrass populations in other parts of the world. Plant survival during winter was nil. Nevertheless, the population more than doubled its area in 1991, implying maximum germination and seedling survival rates. However, from 1992 onwards the decline set in and continued - while the nutrient levels decreased. To establish the cause of the low seed bank density, we conducted a transplantation experiment in 2004 to study the relationship between seed production and macro-algal cover. The transplantation experiment showed a negative relationship between the survival of seed producing shoots and suffocation by macro-algae, which is associated with light limitation and unfavourable biogeochemical conditions. The plants died before they had started to produce seeds. Thus, it is likely that macro-algal cover was responsible for the low seed bank density found in Terschelling in 1990-1991. Both the recorded low seed bank density and absence of incidental plant survival during winter were related to eutrophication. These parameters must have been a severe bottleneck in the life history of the extinct population at the impacted site, particularly as Z. marina seed banks are transient. Therefore we deduce that this population had survived at the edge of collapse, and became extinct after a small, haphazard environmental change. We argue that its resilience during these years must have been due to (i) maximum germination and seedling survival rates and (ii) spatial spreading of risks: parts of the population may have survived at locally macro-algae-free spots from where the area could be recolonised. As a consequence, the timing of the collapse was unpredictable and did not synchronise with the eutrophication process. The lesson learnt for conservation is to recognise that eutrophication may be a cause for seagrass population collapse and its eventual extinction, even years after nutrient levels stabilised, or even decreased.  相似文献   

18.
Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)—an endemic and dioecious shrub-small tree of the lowland rainforest of Cape Tribulation, NE Australia—is evaluated for its long-term population persistence using five-year demographic data from three permanent plots of the species. Two-sex, size-specific Lefkovitch matrices were constructed to evaluate the species’ vital rates and extinction thresholds. One site indicated a sign of significant population growth (annual λ=1.056), while the remaining two gave λs close to unity (λ=1.0102 and 1.007). Overall, λ was greater than 1 (λ=1.0281) indicating that G. actinocarpa will increase in population size with time, though male plants were projected to grow faster in number than female plants. Elasticity analyses indicated that the largest size class (>22 cm diameter) made the greatest contribution to population growth (28%), especially the male plants (23%). Also λ was equally sensitive to survival/stasis (45%) and growth (44%) and least sensitive to fecundity (11%). Stochastic simulations gave 0.505 probability of quasi-extinction to 10% of its initial size in 100 years of population growth projection- suggesting that the endemic G. actinocarpa, despite a positive rate of population increase, is indeed threatened. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations showed that to maintain population persistence of G. actinocarpa, efforts should concentrate, following cost-benefit analyses, on increasing seed production coupled with enhancing establishment of individuals in the seedling, juvenile and vegetative phases.  相似文献   

19.
Himalayan medicinal plants are threatened by large scale exploitation for trade. Research applicable to their sustainable use is largely lacking. We analyze the effects of different harvesting patterns on the population ecology of two highly threatened Himalayan medicinal plants, Nardostachys grandiflora (Valerianaceae) and Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora (Scrophulariaceae), in Shey-Phoksundo National Park and in its buffer zone in northwestern Nepal. We first documented local harvesting approaches of two major user groups, amchi (traditional doctors trained in Tibetan medicine), who harvest plants in a selective manner for local health care purposes, and commercial collectors, who harvest unselectively and at much higher intensity for trade. We then applied the selective harvesting approach of amchi in an experiment to test the effects of different harvesting levels on the population ecology of these two species. These experiments revealed a positive effect of low harvesting levels on plant density, but recruitment and survival rates decreased with increasing harvesting levels. We also analyzed the effect of high harvesting pressure for trade on the population ecology of N. grandiflora. Recruitment and survival rates were higher in N. scrophulariiflora than in N. grandiflora; the latter species is more vulnerable to harvesting than the former. The difference between them in sustainability of harvest is related to differences in their strategies of vegetative reproduction and in harvesting practices associated with these strategies. Management of Himalayan medicinal plants can be improved by taking harvesting patterns, plant life forms and growth patterns into consideration.  相似文献   

20.
We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (λ) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, λ was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in λ accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls.  相似文献   

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