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1.
Aimee M. Mitchell Troy I. Wellicome Dawn Brodie Kimberly M. Cheng 《Biological conservation》2011,(5):1382-1391
A remaining challenge for animal reintroductions is how best to aid individuals transitioning from captivity into the wild. We tested two techniques – ‘soft’ vs. ‘hard’ release – in a 7-year study on endangered Western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in British Columbia, Canada. Traditionally, captive-reared yearling adults were released into the wild, as pairs, directly from artificial burrows (hard-release). Only 46% of 201 owls released in this way (2001–2004) stayed at release sites. To test for improved success, soft-releases were performed in the same manner as concurrent hard-releases (2005–2007), except above-ground enclosures confined each soft-release pair to the vicinity of their burrow for 2 weeks before complete release. Of 140 soft-released owls, 86% stayed at release sites; whereas, 66% of 100 hard-released owls stayed. Breeding-season survival was 70% for soft-released owls vs. 50% for hard-released owls. On average, soft-released owls produced 50% more fledglings than concurrently hard-released owls. Post-fledging survival was 69% and first-year return rate was 7.0% for fledglings from soft-released parents, compared to 50% and 4.0% for fledglings from hard-release parents. Ultimately, 0.17 offspring were recruited into the local wild breeding population per soft-released pair, compared to 0.05 local recruits per hard-released pair. We recommend that enclosure-based soft-releases be used for reintroduction of burrowing owls in British Columbia and elsewhere in North America. We encourage other tests for improved release success with soft-releases, particularly for species with a high tendency for dispersal or those likely to experience significant predation pressure. 相似文献
2.
Giacomo Tavecchia Covadonga Viedma Alejandro Martínez-Abraín 《Biological conservation》2009,142(12):3005-3012
Translocations have become one of the most commonly used tools for biodiversity restoration worldwide, however one out of three re-introduction plans fails to create a viable population or to successfully reinforce the existing one. We used results from the analysis of individual-based information on the re-introduction of a threatened waterfowl species, the crested coots Fulica cristata, to provide guidelines to maximise re-introduction success. We found that about a third of the post-release mortality took place within the first month after release. This immediate ‘cost of release’ in terms of local survival or ‘release risk factor’ seems to be a common feature of re-introduction projects, and it is likely due to the inexperience of captive-born individuals to face the new environment. This hypothesis was supported by the positive association between survival and time spent in the wild Results suggested that coots released between February and May have a slightly higher survival. A joint measure of survival and breeding probabilities indicated that birds released in late winter (February-March) had a higher chance to survive and reproduce compared to birds released later in the year. From an applied perspective our results can be used within an adaptive management framework to determine the optimum period of release, providing substantial support for future decision-making in the management of waterfowl, and other long-term projects of re-introduction of threatened vertebrate species. 相似文献
3.
Studies of the effects of habitat fragmentation have been heavily biased toward population and community questions, with less attention on the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on individual behaviour and reproduction. We studied the effects of habitat amount and configuration on the foraging behaviour, provisioning rates and physiological condition of breeding male northern saw-whet owls (Aegolius acadicus) nesting in the fragmented aspen parkland of central Alberta, Canada. We then examined the relationship between provisioning behaviour and both reproductive success, and juvenile physiological condition. Males nesting in areas with little forest cover and large inter-patch distances spent more time perching, maintained smaller home ranges, and provisioned their nests less frequently. However, home range size and provisioning rates levelled off in landscapes with moderate to high forest cover. Male owls breeding in areas with low forest cover, and those raising large broods, also exhibited higher levels of chronic stress, as measured by heterophil/lymphocyte (H/L) ratios. Predictably, males that provisioned the nest less often fledged fewer young, which, in turn, exhibited higher variation in physiological condition. These results suggest that low levels of habitat loss and fragmentation may be beneficial to saw-whet owls, potentially by increasing prey abundance. However, high levels of habitat loss and fragmentation appeared to reduce the foraging efficiency of male saw-whet owls, increase their levels of physiological stress, and reduce their reproductive success. Increasing habitat loss and fragmentation may ultimately decrease population sizes of saw whet owls in this area and other species that are similarly affected by changes to in habitat composition or configuration. 相似文献
4.
Satellite tracking devices were used to examine the at sea movements of southern and northern giant petrels from Macquarie Island during the Austral summers of 2005-06 and 2006-07. Time spent at sea for nine northern giant petrels (four breeding adults, five recently fledged juveniles) and 10 southern giant petrels (three breeding adults, one non-breeding adult, and six recently fledged juveniles) was examined in relation to marine protected areas and fishing activity in the area immediately adjacent to Macquarie Island in 2005-06, and in terms of the jurisdictions of Regional Fisheries Management Authorities (RFMOs) at a broader scale during both seasons. Breeding adult southern and northern giant petrels spent a large proportion of their time at sea in the Macquarie Island Marine Park (25% and 65%, respectively), primarily during chick rearing. Further from Macquarie Island, the most important foraging areas for adult giant petrels were the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) statistical sub-areas 58.4.1 and 88.1, where foraging activity was concentrated around the ice edge and the Polar Frontal Zone. Fledglings of both species spent time in the Marine Park immediately after fledging, before moving into international waters. We found significant temporal and spatial overlap in the areas used by recently fledged juvenile northern giant petrels and the areas utilised by the single trawler that operated in these waters during 2005-06. Adult giant petrels spent little time in RFMO waters other than those under the jurisdiction of CCAMLR, but fledgling southern and northern giant petrels spent considerable time (56% and 78% of total time at sea) on the high seas of the Pacific Ocean, in areas under the jurisdictions of the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC), the Inter American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) and the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO). Band returns indicate that the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) and the South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (SEAFO) areas are likely to be extensively utilised by Macquarie Island giant petrels in the first three years after fledging. Overall, Macquarie Island’s giant petrel populations are well protected by marine reserves during the breeding season. However, after fledging birds move into RFMO areas that currently have low standards of observer coverage and by catch mitigation, and where fisheries related mortality is likely to pose a significant risk. 相似文献
5.
Large-scale declines of grey partridges (Perdix perdix) since the 1980s have led to local extinctions in the species’ range. As part of a UK recovery programme, we aimed to identify the best methods of re-establishing grey partridges through releasing in areas of extinction where a suitable environment has been restored. In East Anglia and southern England we followed the fates and breeding success of radio-tagged (one site per region) and colour-ringed birds (12 sites per region) of individuals released using five different techniques. The average resighting rate after the first 6 months post-release was 20% for bantam-reared and artificially-reared fostered young, 7% for unfostered young, 10% for full-grown birds in autumn-released coveys and 9% for spring-released adults. For birds that survived the first 6 months, the percentage resighted after a second 6-month period averaged 35%. Across both regions, 65% of grey partridge losses were due to predation of which 58% were killed by mammalian predators and 37% by raptors. Of birds still alive during the breeding season, 88% established their breeding territory within 1.5 km of the release location. There were no detectable differences in breeding success between release methods, but the proportion of females with broods among released birds was a third lower than among wild birds. We recommend re-establishing grey partridges by first releasing autumn coveys, followed by fostering. However, where wild birds are still present, the conservation focus should be on habitat improvements and predation control. 相似文献
6.
Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species. 相似文献
7.
Nicholas J. Van Lanen Alan B. Franklin Kathryn P. Huyvaert Raoul F. Reiser II Peter C. Carlson 《Biological conservation》2011,144(9):2194-2201
The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is a controversial species in the Pacific Northwest that is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The barred owl (Strix varia), a species historically restricted to eastern North America, has recently expanded its range to completely overlap that of the northern spotted owl. Recent evidence suggests that barred owls may compete with northern spotted owls and may be one cause for recent declines in some northern spotted owl populations. Our focus was to examine whether barred owls have the potential to competitively exclude northern spotted owls from their territories through interference competition. We used a playback experiment to quantify aggressive vocal and physical behavior of barred and northern spotted owls during territorial defense. Experimental trials consisted of displaying northern spotted or barred owl taxidermy mounts, and broadcasting recorded vocalizations of the corresponding species, in both barred and northern spotted owl territories. The frequency of interspecific interactions was lower compared to intraspecific interactions between northern spotted owls alone. However, barred owls responded with higher levels of vocal and physical aggression than did northern spotted owls when agonistic interspecific interactions occurred. Our results suggest that barred owls are likely to assume the dominant role during interspecific interactions with northern spotted owls. Thus, interference competition is a plausible mechanism by which barred owls could contribute to observed population declines of northern spotted owls in areas where the species co-occur. 相似文献
8.
The two principal mechanisms available to conserve breeding wading birds on lowland wet grassland in England are nature reserves and agri-environment schemes, particularly the Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) scheme. ESAs offer payments to landowners in return for maintaining (‘low tiers’) or enhancing (‘high tiers’) the landscape, biodiversity and historic value of the land. Lowland wet grassland nature reserves managed by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) have been successful at conserving breeding lapwings and redshank but habitat management usually only results in short-term increases in numbers of breeding snipe. Within ESAs, populations of breeding wading birds fare better on land managed under high tiers than on land managed under low tiers. Land managed under high tiers also supports more pairs of breeding wading birds per £ of ESA grant received than land managed under low tiers. Means of increasing the cost-effectiveness of the ESA scheme in conserving breeding wading birds are discussed in the light of these results. 相似文献
9.
Since 1992, efforts to recover the US federally endangered Great Lakes piping plover (Charadrius melodus) have included population supplementation with captive-reared young raised from abandoned eggs. Using banding data collected 1993-2008 and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in program MARK we estimated resighting rates (ρ) and apparent survival (Φ) of first-year (1) and after-first-year (2+) plovers. Reproductive success was measured by estimating mean number of eggs laid, chicks hatched and chicks fledged per wild-reared or captive-reared parent, and these values were compared with a permutation test. The best-supported mark-resighting model indicated wild-reared plovers had higher Φ1 and Φ2+ than captive-reared plovers. Breeding propensity influenced detection of wild plovers, whereas unique band combinations facilitated detection of yearling captive-reared plovers. Captive-reared (n = 10) and wild-reared (n = 57) plovers laid similar numbers of eggs, but wild-reared plovers hatched 36% more chicks and fledged 56% more young. Reproductive values derived from matrix models suggest captive-reared piping plovers are less fit than similarly aged wild-reared birds upon release and demonstrate reduced fitness in subsequent years. The Great Lakes captive-rearing effort has successfully produced a minimum of 10 breeding adults from 192 eggs that otherwise would have had no reproductive value; these captive-reared individuals now constitute up to 3% of the total population. Small scale salvage and captive-rearing of abandoned eggs should be considered as a technique to supplement existing recovery efforts in highly imperiled populations. 相似文献
10.
From 1989 to 2004, the breeding success of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Robben Island, South Africa was significantly related to estimates of the abundance of both their main prey species, anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, and to the combined biomass of these species. When the combined spawner biomass of fish prey was less than 2 million ton, pairs fledged an average of 0.46 chicks annually. When it was above 2 million ton, annual breeding success had a mean value of 0.73 chicks per pair. Given previously estimated values of survival and age at first breeding, these levels of breeding success are inadequate to sustain the African penguin population. With the higher level of breeding success, an equilibrium situation might be attained if adult survival could be increased by 6-7% per annum. Attempts to reduce mortality of penguins have included the collection, cleaning and return to the wild of oiled birds, culling of Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus seen preying on penguins around breeding localities and control of the spread of disease. Management of the purse-seine fishery should ensure adequate escapement of fish to maintain the combined biomass of anchovy and sardine above 2 million ton. The maintenance of suitable breeding habitat and removal of feral predators from breeding localities will also be important in improving breeding success. 相似文献
11.
The decline of insectivorous farmland passerines has been attributed mostly to global decrease in arthropod availability, as a result of intensification of agricultural practices. The diminution of the Alpine Whinchat, once a widespread insectivorous passerine, has been ascribed to nest losses due to earlier and more frequent mowings. However, potential conjugated effects of deteriorated arthropod food availability had yet to be investigated. We compared food supply and nestling diet in intensively vs. traditionally managed grassland. Abundance and diversity of arthropods were much lower in intensive areas, where small-sized invertebrates, which do not enter nestling diet, were also predominant. Parents breeding in intensive habitats fed less biomass to nestlings than adults from traditional habitats. Nestling diet was less diverse and dominated by less profitable prey items in intensive than in traditional habitats. Feeding rate did not differ between the two habitats, but foraging distances from nest tended to be greater in intensive farmland. There were no significant differences in clutch sizes and hatching success with respect to management intensity, but fledging success was higher in traditional habitats. The recent intensification of farming practices has led to a decrease in the availability of grassland invertebrates, and of important Whinchat nestling food in particular, affecting parents’ foraging efficiency and reproductive success. Conservation actions must not only reduce nest losses by postponing mowing, but should also promote grassland farming that is less detrimental to invertebrates. Dominant at the study site, organic grassland farming does seemingly not provide sufficient conditions for Alpine Whinchats. 相似文献
12.
Since November 1997 the Madagascar Fauna Group (MFG) has released 13 captive-bred black and white ruffed lemurs (Varecia variegata variegata) into the Betampona reserve in eastern Madagascar. Five of the thirteen are currently surviving, including one male who has integrated into a wild group. Five of the released lemurs fell victim to predation by fossa (Cryptoprocta ferox), one died of malnutrition, one disappeared from the reserve and one was withdrawn from the release programme. Ten of the released lemurs survived for more than one year post release, although all required varying levels of supplementary feeding. One pair bred twice—the first time the infants did not survive, but on the second occasion triplets were successfully raised beyond weaning. One of the triplets (male) is still surviving. One male has integrated into a wild group and sired a single infant in 2002 and a female released in 2001 gave birth to twins sired by a wild male also in 2002. The release programme has thus achieved a major objective of reinforcing the existing wild population. To date there is no significant difference in survival rates between animals born and raised in free-ranging environments and those raised in cages, between animals greater than or less than 5 years old at time of release, or between males and females. 相似文献
13.
Donald Brightsmith Jenifer Hilburn Alvaro del Campo Janice Boyd Richard Frisius Federico Guillen 《Biological conservation》2005,121(3):465-472
This study reports on three scarlet macaw (Ara macao) reintroduction projects using hand-raised birds in Peru and Costa Rica. The habitats at the release sites ranged from pristine tropical forest to forest fragments in an agricultural matrix. The combined first-year survival was 74% and the annual post first-year survival was 96%. Survival rates were very high despite a wide range in predator communities. Number of birds released explained 70% of the variation in survival with birds from larger releases having higher survival rates. Behavioral evidence suggests that birds established at the site facilitated survival of later releases. Breeding attempts were recorded at all three sites and hand-raised birds with wild mates successfully fledged young in Peru. Supplemental feeding post-release played an important role in keeping the birds near the release site and facilitating social interactions. This work shows that properly socialized hand-raised macaws can survive and breed in the wild but that ex-pets are not good release candidates. 相似文献
14.
The northwest of Scotland is a stronghold for two of the UK’s rarest bumblebee species, Bombus distinguendus and Bombus muscorum. The predominant form of agricultural land management in this region is crofting, a system specific to Scotland in which small agricultural units (crofts) operate rotational cropping and grazing regimes. Crofting is considered to be beneficial to a wide range of flora and fauna. However, currently there is a lack of quantitative evidence to support this view with regard to bumblebee populations. In this study we assessed the effect of land management on the abundance of foraging bumblebees and the availability of bumblebee forage plants across crofts in northwest Scotland. The results of our study show that current crofting practices do not support high densities of foraging bumblebees. Traditional crofting practice was to move livestock to uplands in the summer, but this has been largely abandoned. Summer sheep grazing of lowland pasture had a strong negative impact on bumblebee abundance and forage plant availability throughout the survey period. The use of specific ‘bird and bee’ conservation seed mixes appears to improve forage availability within the crofted landscape, although the number of bees observed remained low. Of the forage plants available, the three most frequently visited species were from the Fabaceae. We therefore conclude that the creation of agri-environment schemes which promote the use of Fabaceae-rich seed mixes and encourage the removal of sheep grazing on lowland areas throughout the summer are essential in order to conserve bumblebee populations within crofted areas. 相似文献
15.
Despite acknowledging that exotic species can exhibit tremendous influence over native populations, few case studies have clearly demonstrated the effects of exotic prey species on native predators. We examined the effects of the recently introduced island apple snail (Pomacea insularum) on the foraging behavior and energetics of the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) in Florida. We conducted time-activity budgets: (i) on kites foraging for native Florida apple snails (Pomacea paludosa) in major wetland units within the kites’ range that had not been invaded by the exotic island apple snail and (ii) on kites foraging for exotic apple snails in Lake Tohopekaliga, the only major wetland utilized by the snail kite that had suffered a serious invasion of P. insularum. When foraging for P. insularum, snail kites dropped a greater proportion of snails, and they experienced increased handling times and decreased consumption rates; however, kites foraging for P. insularum also spent a smaller proportion of the day in flight. Estimates of net daily energy balances between kites feeding on P. insularum versus P. paludosa were comparable for adults, but juveniles experienced energetic deficiencies when feeding on the exotic snail. Due to this discrepancy, we hypothesize that wetlands invaded by P. insularum, such as Lake Tohopekaliga, may function as ecological traps for the snail kite in Florida by attracting breeding adults but simultaneously depressing juvenile survival. This study highlights the conservation implications and importance of elucidating the effects that exotic species have on native specialists, especially those that are endangered, because subtle influences on behavior may have significant population consequences. 相似文献
16.
Susan L. Roberts Jan W. van Wagtendonk A. Keith Miles Douglas A. Kelt 《Biological conservation》2011,(1):610-619
The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a late-successional forest dependent species that is sensitive to forest management practices throughout its range. An increase in the frequency and spatial extent of stand-replacing fires in western North America has prompted concern for the persistence of spotted owls and other sensitive late-successional forest associated species. However, there is sparse information on the effects of fire on spotted owls to guide conservation policies. In 2004–2005, we surveyed for California spotted owls during the breeding season at 32 random sites (16 burned, 16 unburned) throughout late-successional montane forest in Yosemite National Park, California. Our burned areas burned at all severities, but predominately involved low to moderate fire severity. Based on an information theoretic approach, spotted owl detection and occupancy rates were similar between burned and unburned sites. Nest and roost site occupancy was best explained by a model that combined total tree basal area (positive effect) with cover by coarse woody debris (negative effect). The density estimates of California spotted owl pairs were similar in burned and unburned forests, and the overall mean density estimate for Yosemite was higher than previously reported for montane forests. Our results indicate that low to moderate severity fires, historically common within montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, maintain habitat characteristics essential for spotted owl site occupancy. These results suggest that managed fires that emulate the historic fire regime of these forests may maintain spotted owl habitat and protect this species from the effects of future catastrophic fires. 相似文献
17.
Little is known about the distribution and habitat use of northern pygmy owls (Glaucidium gnoma), in Alberta or throughout their range. In Alberta they are ranked as ‘sensitive’, meaning they are not believed to be at immediate risk of extirpation or extinction but may require special attention or protection to prevent them from becoming at risk.Diurnal broadcast surveys were conducted to determine distribution and habitat selection throughout a 28,500 km2 study area situated along the eastern slopes of the Alberta Rocky Mountains. Surveys lasted for eight weeks in 2001, during which time 1532 site visits were made. Forty-eight responses were recorded at 42 sites representing 40 individual northern pygmy owls. Predictive models of habitat selection were developed using stepwise logistic and autologistic regression. Autologistic models accounted for observed spatial dependencies and as a result, produced better fitting models that more accurately reflect the role of predictor variables in influencing species occurrence. All models considered biophysical variable selection at two spatial scales, the minimum (75 ha) and maximum (300 ha) home range size. Northern pygmy owls showed a preference for older, structurally diverse mixedwood habitats, with line-of-sight enhanced by increased edge and terrain roughness.The use of habitat selection models resulting from this project and Geographic Information Systems as a tool, will enable managers to identify key habitat features, focus future survey efforts, set habitat goals and evaluate the effects of management decisions on current and future habitat availability. 相似文献
18.
Reintroductions are an important tool in conservation biology but frequently fail. Factors influencing reintroduction ‘success’ are rarely tested experimentally. We examined the relationship between habitat quality and reintroduction success in an experimental reintroduction of populations of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the UK.We released cohorts of 44 water voles into 12 replicate 800 m stretches of river, each supporting a different habitat abundance. Water voles initially established at nine sites, failing to establish at three sites due to predation from American mink (two sites) and atypically severe flooding post-release (one site). For sites where voles established, at those with higher vegetation abundance more of the release cohort survived (initial survival rates range 0.43-0.61), and post-establishment survival rates (range 0.45-0.80) and population densities (range 2.1-5.4 voles per 100 m of habitat) were higher. A further two populations were lost to American mink predation post-establishment. Reintroductions are commonly designated as either a ‘success’ or a ‘failure’. The principal cause of a failed release in our study was insufficient mink control. However, whilst seven of our 12 reintroductions were ‘successful’, our results indicated substantial variation in the population densities and survival rates that the replicate habitats could support. This highlights the need to ensure that any habitat selected for a reintroduction is the best obtainable. 相似文献
19.
It is generally recognized that roads can adversely affect local animal populations but little is known how roads affect bats. In particular, no study compared the response of bats that differ in foraging ecology to motorways that cut through the breeding habitat. As bats are key species in conservation, such data are urgently needed for designing management plans. Using radio-telemetry, mist netting, and mark-recapture data we investigated the effects of a motorway with heavy traffic on the habitat use of two threatened forest-living bats. We compared barbastelle bats (Barbastella barbastellus), which forage in open space, to Bechstein’s bats (Myotis bechsteinii), which glean prey from the vegetation. Five of six radio-tracked barbastelle bats crossed the motorway during foraging and roost switching, flying through underpasses and directly over the motorway. In contrast, only three of 34 radio-tracked Bechstein’s bats crossed the motorway during foraging, all three using an underpass. Bechstein’s bats, unlike barbastelle bats, never crossed the motorway during roost switching. Moreover, only in Bechstein’s bats individuals foraging close to the motorway had smaller foraging areas than individuals foraging further away, whereas other forest edges had no such effect. Our data show that motorways can restrict habitat accessibility for bats but the effect seems to depend on the species’ foraging ecology and wing morphology. We suggest that motorways have stronger barrier effects on bats that forage close to surfaces than on bats that forage in open space, and discuss the implications of our findings for bat conservation during road construction. 相似文献
20.
Ross M. Wanless Peter G. Ryan Richard Cuthbert Geoff M. Hilton 《Biological conservation》2009,142(8):1710-1718
The IUCN recently uplisted the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) to Critically Endangered. Here we present new data indicating negative population trends on Gough Island arising from low adult survival (∼91%, ascribed to accidental mortality on fishing gear) and low breeding success (averaging 32%, due to mouse predation). Fledgling production from 1979 to 2007 and numbers of incubating adults from 1956 to 2007 have both decreased by ∼1% p.a. Consecutive annual counts of incubating adults and a population model permit the first reliable estimates of the Tristan albatross population, presently 5400 breeding adults and 11,300 birds in all age- and stage-classes. Population models explore scenarios of likely demographic trends using combinations of hypothetical best-case estimates vs. observed estimates for two key parameters: adult survival and breeding success. These scenarios highlight the relative benefits to the species of eradicating mice or mitigating bycatch. The model scenario using observed estimates predicts annual growth rate at −2.85%. Adult survival rates have probably decreased in recent years, concomitant with increased longline fishing effort, which might explain the discrepancy between counts and modelled trends. Negative trends cannot be reversed by improving breeding success alone, and adult survival must exceed an improbable 97% to balance the current chick production. A worst-case scenario including a fixed number of adult deaths annually predicted a catastrophic 4.2% p.a. decrease and extinction in ∼30 years. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, but even using an adult survival estimate without fishery mortality, current breeding success is insufficient to maintain the population. These findings do not support the ‘compensatory mitigation of bycatch’ model (offsetting bycatch impacts by eradicating invasive species), and the impacts of both fishery mortality and mouse predation must be addressed to improve the conservation status of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross. 相似文献