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基于改进GM(1,N)模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物,其价格对于国民经济尤其是农业经济的影响意义深远。大豆价格的稳定对于我国大豆市场的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在灰色理论的基础上,提出了一种改进GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型,首先运用灰色关联分析法对我国大豆价格的影响因素进行分析,选择主要的影响因素;再将这些影响因素作为模型的相关因素变量,构建GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型。采用2010-2015年的大豆数据进行实证研究,模型选取国内大豆自给量、世界大豆产量、国民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数4个变量作为相关因素变量;模型预测误差为2.10%,预测精度较高,能够较好地掌握大豆价格的变化规律,可以为大豆价格市场预测及国家宏观政策的制定提供理论指导。 相似文献
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大豆是重要的经济作物,同时也是我国市场化和国际化程度最高的大宗农产品,对其价格进行预测具有重要意义。采用Q-RBF神经网络模型对国产大豆价格进行预测,该模型具有如下两个特点:(1)通过分位数回归功能来描述大豆在不同价格水平下的分布特征;(2)通过RBF神经网络结构来刻画大豆价格的非线性关系。在模型参数优化时,由于遗传算法是一种全局搜索优化方法,但是搜索速度慢、对初始值具有一定依赖性;而梯度下降法具有收敛快,对初始值没有特定要求等优点,所以本文提出遗传算法与梯度下降法相结合的混合改进算法,其基本思想是利用梯度下降法的局部寻优能力加快遗传算法的收敛速度。采用2010年1月-2015年12月的国产大豆月度价格数据进行预测研究,结果表明,算法收敛速度较快,模型预测精度较高,是可以泛化应用的预测模型。 相似文献
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国内大豆价格受到多重因素影响,如大豆进口量、国内大豆供给量、中国居民消费价格指数等,因此呈现非线性等特点。大豆价格的剧烈波动会对农户的种植结构和国家政策产生影响,因此准确预测大豆价格具有重要意义。支持向量回归(SVR)因其优越的寻优能力和较高的预测精确度而被广泛应用于非线性时间序列回归中。本文提出一种自适应粒子群算法(APSO)优化的SVR模型来预测我国大豆价格,该模型通过将现实空间内的数据映射到高维空间内,在高维空间内构造线性回归函数,从而判别原有空间内数据之间的关系。在SVR模型参数优化时,由于粒子群算法易陷入局部最优解,因此采用惯性权重更新和适应度变异的粒子群算法(APSO)对预测模型参数进行优化。采用2009年1月-2016年12月的国内大豆价格月度数据进行预测,结果表明APSO优化的SVR模型在大豆价格预测中精度较高,且能准确反应大豆价格的未来趋势,为从事大豆种植者及经营者提供决策依据。 相似文献
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大豆是我国传统的农作物,同时也是我国市场需求量较高的大宗农产品。合理地预测大豆价格对我国大豆市场具有重要的经济价值和现实意义。本文将大豆价格及其影响因素定义为非线性、高噪音、波动大的非时变系统,利用系统动力学的理论,绘制因果关系图研究大豆供给、需求、价格因素之间的因果反馈关系,并构造出一个系统动力学模型。系统模拟了人口因素、经济因素、大豆供给量、大豆消费量、其它油料作物价格等因素对大豆价格的影响,采用2006-2016年的大豆价格年度数据进行了仿真和实证,进而对2017-2020年的我国大豆价格年度数据进行预测。结果证明该模型具备有效的预测能力,预测精度较高。因具备系统动力学的特征,研究更加侧重反应大豆价格的未来趋势,进而为大豆从业者和我国农业经济政策提供参考。 相似文献
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基于改进GM(1,1)模型的中国大豆价格预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国大豆产业是国家基础性产业之一,国内外大豆市场对大豆价格波动影响极大,对中国大豆波动情况加以研究具有重要的意义。在分析GM(1,1)模型有效性的基础上,讨论了其在农产品预测的可行性,从而采用改进GM(1,1)模型用1990-2014年中国大豆价格预测2015-2017年中国大豆价格分别为4.40,4.57和4.74元·kg-1,在本试验中改进GM(1,1)模型并没有对原始序列进行累加操作,说明原始序列具备准指数规律。检验结果表明后验差比值小于0.5和小误差概率大于0.8,说明采用灰色预测对此数据加以预测合格。2015年价格低于2015年东北三省和内蒙古大豆价格目标价格,说明中国大豆仍处于低迷状态,会导致中国大豆种植面积及农民种植意愿继续降低。据此给出对策与建议,一是继续提高大豆种植补贴和大豆目标价格;二是加大地方大豆产业的政策性扶持,尤其是非转基因大豆产业的扶持,保持国内大豆产业健康发展;三是提高大豆行业与豆农的组织化程度。 相似文献
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运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解测算了不同时段的国内外大豆市场整合关系,探讨了贸易环境变动对国内外大豆价格传导机制的影响效果。研究发现:虽经历数次贸易环境变动,但国际大豆市场对国产大豆市场的价格传导能力远大于后者的反作用;2004年大豆风波事件前国产大豆市场对自身价格变动压力的贡献高达83%,而事件后国际大豆市场加大了对国产大豆市场的价格传导能力,分担了65%的国产大豆价格变动压力;2008年国产大豆收储政策实施后国际大豆价格对国产大豆价格的传导机制基本失灵,而2014年政策取消后国际大豆市场的价格传导能力再次增强,国产大豆市场对自身价格变动压力的贡献仅为20%,国产大豆市场价格自主能力严重缺失。最后,总结并提出相应的对策建议。 相似文献
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BP(back propagation)神经网络是目前应用最广泛的神经网络模型,是一种反向传播网络,使网络的实际输出逐步接近某个特定的期望输出。本文以1990—2018年度云南甘蔗总产量为数据样本,选取平均气温、最低温度、最高温度、降雨量和日照5个气象因子作为预测变量,建立了甘蔗产量BP神经网络预测模型,对云南甘蔗产量进行预测研究。研究结果表明,模型具有较高的精度,相对误差在-5.7%^+4.6%的范围。通过该预测法,可为甘蔗产量的预测提供有效途径,具有较强的实用性,为甘蔗产业决策提供基本的参考依据。 相似文献
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为实现干旱地区冬小麦冠层叶片含水量的快速测定,以陕西省乾县为研究区,基于野外冬小麦冠层高光谱数据和实测叶片含水量,对原始光谱进行连续小波变换（continuous wavelet transform,CWT）后得到的小波能量系数与实测含水量进行相关性分析;并通过竞争性自适应重加权采样（competitive adaptive reweighted sampling,CARS）过滤冗余变量,筛选与叶片含水量相关性较好的波长变量,作为优选变量集;通过粒子群算法(particle swarm optimization,PSO)对BP神经网络模型进行优化,构建冠层叶片含水量预测模型并进行分析。结果表明,从尺度1到尺度10,小波系数与冬小麦叶片含水量整体相关性先升后降,中等分解尺度在光谱波段去除噪声、提高相关性方面最佳;基于CARS优选变量集所建的两种模型中,BP-PSO模型预测能力明显优于普通BP神经网络模型,其决定系数可达0.82,均方根误差为0.86%,相对误差为0.82%。这说明CWT-CARS-BP-PSO耦合算法在提升相关性、过滤冗余波段、提高模型预测精度方面效果显著,可用于冬小麦叶片含水量预测。 相似文献
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Lakshman Lal 《Potato Research》1987,30(2):329-334
Summary The effects of the leaves of five plant species, one from each of the generaAmbrosia, Anemone, Eupatorium, Eucalyptus andLantana, on potato tuber moth were investigated under indigenous storage conditions at the Central Potato Research Station, Shillong
(1800 m above sea level). Their action was compared with that of a biological insecticide (spores ofBacillus thuringiensis), a chemical insecticide (carbaryl), and an untreated control. The data collected after six months storage on tuber damage,
sprout damage and the rotting indicated that the leaves ofLantana aculeata provided most protection to the tubers, reducing damage from over 70% in the check to below 5%, and sprout damage from over
45% to below 3%. Next best wasEucalyptus globulus followed byB. thuringiensis. They may be used on tubers stored for table use or for seed as they had no adverse effect on germination or on the yield
of a subsequent crop. 相似文献
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《Journal of Crop Improvement》2013,27(2):81-114
Summary The efficiency of N fertilizers is usually poor; often less than 50% of the applied N is taken up by the crop. This review focuses on various N fertilizers with respect to the significance of different N loss pathways, namely (i) ammonia volatilization, (ii) dinitrogen and nitrogen oxide emissions, and (iii) nitrate leaching. Further, the significance of biological N immobilization, ammonium fixation and, finally, the impact of nitrate vs. ammonium uptake on crop yield are also discussed. The reviewed literature shows that N fertilizers may differ markedly in their susceptibility to losses. There is, however, considerable scope to improve N efficiency of each N source by proper N management practices. 相似文献
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M. I. Siri P. Villanueva M. J. Pianzzola L. Franco Fraguas G. Galván M. Acosta F. Ferreira 《Potato Research》2004,47(3-4):127-138
Summary The in vitro antimicrobial activity of extracts from accessions ofSolanum commersonii Dun. collected in the south of Uruguay was investigated against five microorganisms including the pathogenRalstonia solanacearum. A total of 30 extracts corresponding to organic and aqueous extracts were studied. Interestingly, most of the positive results
for growth inhibition were againstR. solanacearum. The extracts were also analyzed for the presence of glycoalkaloids and lectins. Six of the ten aqueous extracts showed lectin
presence and a wide variation in the type and amounts of glycoalkaloids, was found. Results indicate that there is no clear
relationship between the antimicrobial activity against the five microorganisms screened and the presence or amounts of lectins
and glycoalkaloids, traditionally regarded as possible antimicrobial metabolites in theSolanum genus, which indicates the presence of as yet unidentified antimicrobial compounds. 相似文献
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Novel food and non-food uses for sorghum and millets 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4
Sorghum and millets have considerable potential in foods and beverages. As they are gluten-free they are suitable for coeliacs. Sorghum is also a potentially important source of nutraceuticals such antioxidant phenolics and cholesterol-lowering waxes. Cakes, cookies, pasta, a parboiled rice-like product and snack foods have been successfully produced from sorghum and, in some cases, millets. Wheat-free sorghum or millet bread remains the main challenge. Additives such as native and pre-gelatinised starches, hydrocolloids, fat, egg and rye pentosans improve bread quality. However, specific volumes are lower than those for wheat bread or gluten-free breads based on pure starches, and in many cases, breads tend to stale faster. Lager and stout beers with sorghum are brewed commercially. Sorghum's high-starch gelatinisation temperature and low beta-amylase activity remain problems with regard to complete substitution of barley malt with sorghum malt . The role of the sorghum endosperm matrix protein and cell wall components in limiting extract is a research focus. Brewing with millets is still at an experimental stage. Sorghum could be important for bioethanol and other bio-industrial products. Bioethanol research has focused on improving the economics of the process through cultivar selection, method development for low-quality grain and pre-processing to recover valuable by-products. Potential by-products such as the kafirin prolamin proteins and the pericarp wax have potential as bioplastic films and coatings for foods, primarily due to their hydrophobicity. 相似文献
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Alejandro Carlos Tozzini María Fernanda Ceriani María Verónica Saladrigas H. Esteban Hopp 《Potato Research》1991,34(3):317-324
Summary Clones derived from thirty-one different accessions (nineteen of Argentine origin) belonging to eightSolanum species were screened for resistance to infection by potato virus X strain cp (PVX cp) by mechanical inoculation of plantlets
that had been micropropagated in vitro. Estimates of PVX multiplication obtained by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and
slot blot nucleic acid hybridization allowed the identification of resistant clones derived from five accessions belonging
toS. commersonii S. oplocense, S. sparsipilum andS. tuberosum andigena. Resistant genotypes supported PVX concentrations 5 to 15 times smaller than did the susceptible control cultivar Spunta.
Graft inoculation test confirmed the presence of extreme resistance similar to that conferred by the ‘immunity’ gene X1 (also called RXact). 相似文献
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Alejandro M. S. Mayer Abimael D. Rodríguez Orazio Taglialatela-Scafati Nobuhiro Fusetani 《Marine drugs》2013,11(7):2510-2573
The peer-reviewed marine pharmacology literature from 2009 to 2011 is presented in this review, following the format used in the 1998–2008 reviews of this series. The pharmacology of structurally-characterized compounds isolated from marine animals, algae, fungi and bacteria is discussed in a comprehensive manner. Antibacterial, antifungal, antiprotozoal, antituberculosis, and antiviral pharmacological activities were reported for 102 marine natural products. Additionally, 60 marine compounds were observed to affect the immune and nervous system as well as possess antidiabetic and anti-inflammatory effects. Finally, 68 marine metabolites were shown to interact with a variety of receptors and molecular targets, and thus will probably contribute to multiple pharmacological classes upon further mechanism of action studies. Marine pharmacology during 2009–2011 remained a global enterprise, with researchers from 35 countries, and the United States, contributing to the preclinical pharmacology of 262 marine compounds which are part of the preclinical pharmaceutical pipeline. Continued pharmacological research with marine natural products will contribute to enhance the marine pharmaceutical clinical pipeline, which in 2013 consisted of 17 marine natural products, analogs or derivatives targeting a limited number of disease categories. 相似文献
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Chitosan is considered to be one of the most promising and applicable materials in adsorption applications. The existence of amino and hydroxyl groups in its molecules contributes to many possible adsorption interactions between chitosan and pollutants (dyes, metals, ions, phenols, pharmaceuticals/drugs, pesticides, herbicides, etc.). These functional groups can help in establishing positions for modification. Based on the learning from previously published works in literature, researchers have achieved a modification of chitosan with a number of different functional groups. This work summarizes the published works of the last three years (2012–2014) regarding the modification reactions of chitosans (grafting, cross-linking, etc.) and their application to adsorption of different environmental pollutants (in liquid-phase). 相似文献
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Alexander N. Shikov Elena V. Flisyuk Ekaterina D. Obluchinskaya Olga N. Pozharitskaya 《Marine drugs》2020,18(11)
Marine organisms represent an excellent source of innovative compounds that have the potential for the development of new drugs. The pharmacokinetics of marine drugs has attracted increasing interest in recent decades due to its effective and potential contribution to the selection of rational dosage recommendations and the optimal use of the therapeutic arsenal. In general, pharmacokinetics studies how drugs change after administration via the processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). This review provides a summary of the pharmacokinetics studies of marine-derived active compounds, with a particular focus on their ADME. The pharmacokinetics of compounds derived from algae, crustaceans, sea cucumber, fungus, sea urchins, sponges, mollusks, tunicate, and bryozoan is discussed, and the pharmacokinetics data in human experiments are analyzed. In-depth characterization using pharmacokinetics is useful for obtaining information for understanding the molecular basis of pharmacological activity, for correct doses and treatment schemes selection, and for more effective drug application. Thus, an increase in pharmacokinetic research on marine-derived compounds is expected in the near future. 相似文献