首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The British Government’s economic strategy for post‐Brexit Britain of achieving balanced regional growth by “driving growth across the whole country” echoes the objectives set by the Barlow Report of 1940. The regional policies that followed the Barlow Report were heavily influenced by papers written for the Commission by G D A (later Sir Donald) MacDougall. The first of these papers was included as an appendix to the report itself and introduced the shift‐share methodology to the analysis of regional employment growth, and subsequently shown to be flawed. The second paper considered the urban hierarchy and growth but was never fully developed. Consequently post‐war regional policy focussed on the contribution of industrial structure to employment growth without fully taking into account the urban hierarchy or regional locations of that employment. This article replaces the flawed shift‐share methodology with multifactor partitioning (MFP) and applies it to regional employment growth for the period 1971‐2012, a span of special interest because it largely coincides with British membership of the European Union (EU). The deficiencies in the second paper are addressed by introducing allometry to measure the employment growth of each region relative to that of Great Britain and then regression analysis to relate the allometries to distance from London. The results of the two sets of analyses highlight the need for a multiple‐factor, comprehensive, and integrated approach to regional policy and provide a benchmark against which to gauge the success of Britain's post‐Brexit policy of driving future growth across the whole country.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT This article integrates firm birth and death data into a shift‐share analysis framework. The proposed methodology can be used when data availability does not allow for the direct association of employment changes to business demographics at the regional level. It may be also used as an exploratory step before any explanatory econometric work is undertaken as a means of identifying classes of potential control variables. Applying the method to Greek data suggests that firm‐size heterogeneity should not be ignored, that local conditions matter more than regional economic structure, and that the latter are asymmetrical across sectors when it comes to the effects of business demographics on regional employment or output growth.  相似文献   

3.
Shift‐share analysis is used to examine the role of spatial structure on changes in regional manufacturing employment, in contrast to the traditional focus of shift‐share studies on the role of industrial structure. It is argued that changes in a region's space‐economy can be understood not only in terms of the economic subdivisions of the region but also in terms of the contribution of its spatial subdivisions. The latter is illustrated by means of a case study of the contribution of different types of local area to changes in regional manufacturing employment in Japan. Each region was subdivided into four types of local area based on population density. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 1995, a time of major transformation in Japan's space‐economy. The shift‐share model was also used to estimate the impact of local area output and productivity on changes in regional employment. In general, the results show that there was a progressive underdevelopment of the core regions, associated with falling output and productivity. The country's peripheral regions were characterized by development, associated with rising output and productivity. Atthe local scale, however, the picture is far more complex. Types of local area contributed to regional employment change in very different ways, with respect to both time, region, and output/productivity. The contribution of local spatial structure to the regional space‐economy of Japan is fundamentally fragmented and uneven.  相似文献   

4.
We focus our research on this question: Does an expansion in the percentage of labour employed in the manufacturing sector lead to reductions in the poverty rate? While some research suggests that regional differences in the employment share of the manufacturing sector explain variation in poverty rates, we do not find empirical evidence of this poverty‐ameliorating effect in our regression analysis of Canadian Census Districts between the years 2001 and 2006.  相似文献   

5.
There is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths.  相似文献   

6.
In the context of greater economic integration with global markets and structural economic reforms, this paper analyses regional and sectoral employment growth dynamics in Mexican states between 2004 and 2014. The methodology is based on spatial shift‐share analysis that explicitly considers interregional interactions in employment while assessing potential spillover effects arising from spatial interactions among states and industrial sectors. The results suggest a competitive effect from some industries—such as those related to science and specialized suppliers, intensive scale industries and dominated providers—which led to the formation of industrial corridors of neighboring states that connect the central region with the northeast region of the country. It was also found that proximity to states such as Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, and Puebla has positively influenced neighboring states in terms of employment growth rates. The results also support the argument of some sort of de‐concentration of economic activity in the capital, Mexico City, toward neighboring states.  相似文献   

7.
Using the PUMS files of the 2000 U.S. Census and 2005–2007 merged ACS data, we study the metropolitan destination choices made by newly arrived immigrants from seven top source countries between 2000 and 2007. Using a multinomial logit model, we find that the dispersion of new immigrant groups varies by origin, although all groups were subject to 1) the attraction of co‐ethnic communities, and 2) the positive effects of labor market conditions in the destination (especially the employment growth rate). However, co‐ethnic concentration is much more important than labor market conditions in the destination choice decision, particularly for the poorly educated. Conversely, there is a strong negative effect of co‐ethnic concentration on highly educated new immigrants, revealing a dispersed geographical pattern of these highly educated immigrants. We also find the importance of employment share growth rate for highly educated immigrants which suggests that they are more sensitive to the upward employment structure at the destination than a specific job growth rate, and they may not be attracted by a metropolitan area with a low‐quality employment structure, despite whether there was an increase in high‐level jobs.  相似文献   

8.
Facilitating entrepreneurship to address regional income disparity continues to be a major concern of policy makers across the globe. This study explores the temporal pattern of income disparity for Canadian provinces in two estimation steps. First, an econometric growth regression model is applied to identify the impact of entrepreneurship on regional economic growth. The estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship, measured in terms of the self‐employment rate, plays a pivotal role in determining regional development in Canada. Second, a dynamic vector autoregression model is employed to simulate long‐run regional growth effects that result from policy shocks affecting entrepreneurship. Compared to other growth drivers, entrepreneurship is found to have more pronounced and long‐term stimulative effects on regional development for the period of 1987–2007.  相似文献   

9.
Most applications of shift-share analysis to regional employment change have used a study period of several years and have examined conditions only at the beginning and end years. This comparative static approach does not take into account the continuous changes in both industrial mix and size of total employment of the region over the study period. Calculating the national growth effect, the industrial mix effect, and the competitive effect on an annual basis and then summing the results over the study period provides a more accurate allocation of job changes among the three shift-share effects. This approach, which we term dynamic shift-share analysis, also allows unusual years and years of economic transition to he identified. We illustrate the use of dynamic shift-share by presenting results of an analysis of New England employment growth from 1939 to 1984, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The use of the dynamic form of shift-share is important when the study period is characterized by either large changes in regional industrial mix or major differences between regional and national growth rates.  相似文献   

10.
Traditional univariate shift-share studies of employment provide an unreliable indicator of the relative performance of a region or an industry for they fail to separate the effects of output and productivity change on the demand for labor. An extended shift-share model is proposed that overcomes this weakness and permits identification of different processes of regional development. This model is used to investigate annual employment change in twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing industries in nine census regions of the U.S. between 1950 and 1986. The timing and depth of the exodus of manufacturing jobs from the snowbelt to the sunbelt is illustrated along with the business cycle performance of industries and regions. Productivity growth in the sunbelt is positively associated with rapid output expansion, whereas in the snowbelt it is associated with the loss of market share and economic rationalization.  相似文献   

11.
Procedures for tracking and forecasting economic conditions in regional economies have evolved significantly over the last 30 years. Much of this evolution has followed developments in macroeconomics, where techniques for tracking/forecasting key economic variables have tended to originate. This technique adoption and adaptation process continues today, as developments in the technique adoption and adaptation process continues today, as developments in the modeling of cointegrated macroeconomic time series have begun to appear in the regional modeling and forecasting literature. This paper presents an effort at modeling a segment of a regional economy using the cointegration testing procedures suggested by Johansen and Jusilius (1990) to develop a forecasting model for manufacturing employment in Milwaukee, WI. The paper demonstrates how Vector Error Correction (VEC) modeling can lead to gains in the accuracy of local manufacturing employment forecasts relative to more traditional VAR models in either levels or first-differenced form. In the process, it demonstrates procedures for developing a relatively simple VEC model that reveals something about the structure of the local manufacturing sector, including possible linkages to the national economy. This information can assist local policy makers in anticipating and adapting to business cycle-related fluctuations in this critical sector of the local economy.  相似文献   

12.
The South Central Louisiana Petroleum Economy received an economic rent from its petroleum resources during the energy crisis of the 1970s and early 80s. A differential export-base model incorporating a geometric lag was developed for estimating dynamic employment multipliers. This technique is especially applicable to regional economies in which exports are a major economic factor. Employment multipliers were estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Results from the analysis indicate that agriculture, oil and gas mining, and manufacturing are highly significant employment generators. Both long-run and short-run employment multipliers were derived from the model. It is estimated that a five-dollar change in the real price of crude oil will result in a long-run employment change of 8,027 for the oil and gas mining industry. Based on estimates of the long-run multiplier, this will result in a total employment change of 28,014 for this economy.  相似文献   

13.
This paper examines the effects of the housing boom of the early 2000s on unemployment in U.S. metropolitan areas. A region's share of housing units built between 2000 and 2006 has no effect on unemployment prior to the start of the Great Recession, but the extent of a region's housing boom increases unemployment in over one‐half of the months analyzed during and immediately following it. Regression results based on a cluster analysis of metropolitan areas indicate that regions characterized by high growth rates of construction, retail, and hospitality employment during the early 2000s were hit particularly hard by the recession.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT A public policy response to global competition is the creation of a geographic concentration of innovative activity (regional innovation systems [RIS]) that will enhance metropolitan economic development through knowledge spillovers, product development, and new firm spin‐offs. This article identifies three types of RIS in the thirteen southern states based on a cluster analysis of twenty indicators of innovative and entrepreneurial activity. Next, regression analysis is used to determine if the 1990–2000 growth rates of nonmetro county population, employment, and earnings were related to proximity to an RIS after controlling for other county characteristics associated with local economic development. The research findings indicate that nonmetro counties near an RIS experienced more rapid population and employment growth; however, changes in nonmetro growth rates varied by type of regional innovation system. In addition, proximity to an RIS had a stronger impact on nonmetro population change than on nonmetro job growth.  相似文献   

15.
The effectiveness of intra‐regional job search is influenced by how far people are willing to travel to new employment. While much has been written on the commuting patterns of those in work, relatively little research has been carried out on how far unemployed job seekers are prepared to commute. This paper presents and tests a model of factors influencing the maximum time unemployed job seekers would be willing to travel to a potential new job. Significant effects are found for a range of personal and demographic characteristics, including gender, years of education, type of job, and location. The evidence suggests support for the spatial mismatch hypothesis and shows differing accessibility to employment opportunities for certain types of unemployed people. The findings also suggest that models of the trade‐off between leisure and work time should fully include travel‐to‐work time as part of this trade‐off.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT These notes discuss and illustrate two new extensions of shift‐share analysis: the productivity and output model and the international trade model. We also review a general limitation of these and other shift‐share‐type models with respect to the interaction between reference area and the region. A possible solution to this limitation is presented. The new extensions provide better insights about the regional economy but that benefit occurs at a cost. The cost is careful consideration and compensation where relatively large regions or sectors are central to the shift‐share assessment. The extensions are important in addressing earlier problems with the shift‐share approach. Our solution to shift‐share limitation on reference area interaction is vital if the method is to be extended to these multiple environments.  相似文献   

17.
One of the debates around new firm formation across sub‐national territories focuses on whether regional differences in industrial structure are more important influences than regional differences in individual industry performance. The present research, using Value Added Tax (VAT) registration data, attempts to make a contribution to this debate in the United Kingdom (UK) context using a shift‐share covariance model. Firm de‐registrations and, as a consequence, net changes in firm stocks are also analyzed with similar questions in mind. The findings show that although the effects of industrial mix are significant across most regions, in several key regional contexts the industrial competitive effect dominates. The issue of the role of regional industrial concentration forms a second major theme of this paper. This basically involves a questioning as to whether concentration is a positive or negative force for new firm formation. The results of this research indicate that industrial concentration, measured through localization, is more important for firm deaths than for firm births (although significant for both), but not particularly relevant to the understanding of the net outcome of entry and exit processes. In the UK, regions with higher levels of industry concentration seem to be associated overall with relatively lower levels of both firm births and deaths.  相似文献   

18.
Between 1957 and 1990, nearly 100 nuclear reactors were constructed throughout the U.S., and nuclear power currently accounts for 20 percent of electricity production nationwide. Nuclear plants are often constructed in small communities for which they constitute a large source of employment and income. To date, 24 nuclear reactors have undergone decommissioning, and more are expected in the future, particularly as nuclear reactors age and face increasingly strict regulations. This paper examines the effects of nuclear decommissioning over time at the county‐level on measures of employment, income, and population using difference‐in‐differences regression and propensity score matching. Panel data are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, and cover the years 1975–2014. The analysis finds that nuclear decommissioning is associated with positive and statistically significant increases in employment and per capita income over time. Results suggest that nuclear decommissioning may actually be a positive force in regional economic development, and concludes with limitations of the approach and implications for future research. As an emerging area of research, this paper is meant to build on previous work, as well as to provide a basis for further discussion and debate on the economic future of nuclear host communities and regional economies.  相似文献   

19.
This study takes a regional approach to analyzing what drives labor's share of income for South Korea over 2000–2014. First, we document empirically that changes in the labor share within a region are the dominant component of the change in the aggregate labor share of national income. To study the dynamic determinants of the labor share of income at the regional level, a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is estimated to examine how the regional labor share responds to innovations in an array of variables suggested by theoretical models. Consistent with theory, we confirm that technology, capital intensity and market concentration are the key variables explaining the labor share dynamics. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of trade openness and R&D expenditures on the regional labor share. Interestingly, we find that the labor share shows a different pattern of responses to the identified shocks depending upon the type of regions, that is, whether it is in the metropolitan or provincial areas. We also discuss the implications of our results for both theory and policy.  相似文献   

20.
The effects on employment growth in firms, grouped by size class, of the economic crisis that began in 2008 are analysed using multifactor partitioning (MFP). Italy's employment growth is decomposed into four explanatory factors: the stage in the business cycle; the effect of firm size; industry composition; and regional distribution; together with the interactions among these four effects. The interpretation of these effects is facilitated by the introduction within the MFP framework of a new decomposition of several key elements. The results show that the adopted approach and the suggested decompositions are useful to study the effect of size on employment change. This effect is found to be negative only for micro units (with less than 10 employees). For the other classes, it is positive. The observed negative changes in these classes are mainly due to the business cycle and an unfavourable industrial composition.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号