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1.
C. Bogahawatte 《Agricultural Systems》1984,14(4):199-212
In Sri Lanka cropping enterprises interact with livestock production on peasant farms. This analysis of the crop-livestock farming system aims at understanding the existing constraints and interactions between crops and livestock in these farms. The main objective of the study is to describe the crop-livestock integrated farming systems in three rainfed villages in the Moneragala district of Sri Lanka, and to evaluate these systems in terms of maximizing farm incomes from the different crop and livestock components of the systems. A field survey was conducted to collect data from 153 farming families for the Maha season of 1982/83. A linear programming model was formulated to test the hypothesis.The results show that in general the activities for lowland rice, highland rice, sugar cane, labour, farm cash cost, and MVP (compost) are higher in the optimal farm plan than in the actual farm situation. The livestock in the optimal plan is mainly confined to milch cattle. However, with the present high level of manutrition among rural livestock industry emphasis should be placed on the expansion of the rural livestock industry in the study villages. The optimal plan also suggests the use of crop residues as a substitute for compost for farm crops. Hence, in the context of escalating prices of chemical fertilizers, research is required to find the suitability of crop residues and household residues as substitutes for compost. Increases in supplementary irrigation may result in the expansion of the farm area and hence the farm income. Other methods of increasing farm income include: replacing hired labour with non-utilized family labour, increased agricultural research, and extension activity regarding the use of modern inputs by farmers on crops. 相似文献
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This paper discusses linear programming simulations at individual farm-level of potential income changes that may result from conversion to organic farming. The model is based on both conventional farm accountancy data and additional conventional and organic farm data from sector expertise and literature. The model is applied for Belgian agriculture. Simulations show that economic potential for conversion is higher than generally perceived, provided that farmers are willing to change farm management practices. However, the economic conversion potential (ECP) is not positive for all farms, not even when an optimal conversion process is assumed and it depends on farm type and farm characteristics. Additionally, due to higher risk and liquidity problems during the transition period, the positive results need to be put into perspective. Nevertheless, the differentiated ECP calculations can give new insights supporting farm-level policy choices with respect to conversion to organic farming. 相似文献
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Evaluating the potential scale of adoption of a technological innovation or management practice at the farm business scale can help gauge the potential size of an industry for the purposes of prioritising resources for research and development. In this paper we address the question of quantifying the potential area of adoption of a perennial pasture, lucerne (Medicago sativa L.), in dryland mixed farming systems in Australia. Lucerne pastures play a significant role in dryland farming systems in the wheat-sheep zone of southern and western Australia. While there are benefits of integrating lucerne into cropping systems there will inevitably be additional costs, and the scale of adoption of lucerne will depend largely on the increase in farm profit resulting from the introduction of lucerne. Whole-farm economic models of representative farms in the Australian wheat-sheep belt were used to determine the key drivers for the scale of adoption of lucerne.For a particular farming system the optimal area of lucerne which maximises whole-farm profit is found to depend on production, price and cost conditions. Generally, no more than 30% of a farm was allocated to lucerne according to those conditions and location of the farm. For most scenarios examined the response of profit was flat around the optimal area. This implies that lucerne could be grown on areas greater than the optimum, in order to reduce groundwater recharge (and thereby reduce the risk of dryland salinity), without greatly reducing whole-farm profit. The optimal area of lucerne in all regions was limited by the area of suitable soil types and proportion of lucerne in the most profitable lucerne-crop sequences.At all price levels assumed in this study lucerne remained as part of the optimal enterprise mix for all farm types examined. Lucerne productivity was also a major determinant of the optimal area of lucerne. The sensitivity of profit to changes in winter and/or summer production varied between regions and for different livestock enterprises. The differences were driven by the timing of energy demands and supply of feed in individual farming systems.In all regions the optimal area and profitability of lucerne varied with livestock enterprise. The analyses showed that changing from wool production to meat production enabled greater economic benefit to be realised from lucerne. This was consistent across farm types and demonstrated the value of lucerne as a source of high quality feed for finishing prime lambs in summer.The results of this study demonstrate that lucerne is profitable in a range of environments on a significant proportion of the farm area, but that this area is small relative to that required to significantly influence in its own right the environmental issue of salinity. 相似文献
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《Agricultural Systems》2005,86(2):190-206
Within the Research Network on Agro-ecosystems Munich (Forschungsverbund Agrarökosysteme München, FAM) strategies to approach optimal land use have been investigated since 1990 in terms of minimization of environmental impacts and maximization of profit from agricultural lands. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interactions of the economic and ecological demands on agricultural land use with model calculations for the integrated farm section of the research station of the Research Network, Klostergut Scheyern in Bavaria, Germany, with a whole farm modeling approach.For this purpose the model system MODAM was used. MODAM simulates agricultural land use at farm level, calculates the economic returns and environmental impacts and runs farm optimizations with a linear programming tool. The integration of agri-environmental indicators in the model framework enables a multi-criteria optimization and the calculation of trade-offs. Optimization runs for the experimental farm show the complex interactions which occur when the farm considers environmental concerns in the objective function. Trade offs and abatement cost curves illustrate the relationship between agri-environmental indicators and economic returns of the farm. Here, soil erosion, nitrogen balance, global warming potential and gross energy input were implemented as agri-environmental indicators in MODAM. 相似文献
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Several studies show that organic farming is more profitable than conventional farming. However, in reality not many farmers convert to organic farming. Policy makers and farmers do not have clear insight into factors which hamper or stimulate the conversion to organic farming. The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic linear programming model to analyse the effects of different limiting factors on the conversion process of farms over time. The model is developed for a typical arable farm in The Netherlands central clay region, and is based on two static liner programming models (conventional and organic). The objective of the model is to maximise the net present value over a 10-year planning horizon. The results of the analysis of a basic scenario show that conversion to organic farming is more profitable than staying conventional. In order to arrive at the actual profitable phase of organic farming, the farmer has to pass through the economically difficult 2-year conversion period. Sensitivity analysis shows that if depreciation is 25% higher than conventional fixed costs due to machinery made superfluous by conversion, conversion is less profitable than staying conventional. Also the availability of hired labour, which can be constrained in peak periods, has a strong effect on the cropping plan and the amount of area converted. Further analysis shows that a slight drop (2%) in organic prices lowers the labour income of the farmer and makes conversion less profitable than conventional farming. For farmers, a minimum labour income can be required to ‘survive’. The analysis shows that constraint on minimum labour income makes stepwise conversion the best way for farmers to overcome economic difficulties during conversion. 相似文献
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A model for optimal allocation of water from a single-purpose reservoir to an irrigation project with pre-determined multiple cropping patterns was developed. The model consisted of two modules: (I) the intra-seasonal allocation model (non-linear programming) which is used for allocation of water among different crops for a definite combination of state variables (inflow class, rainfall class, reservoir storage classes at the beginning and at the end of the season) for the non-dormant season to maximize total farm income; and (II) the seasonal allocation model (stochastic-dynamic programming) which is used for the convergent operating policy over seasons for optimal expected farm income over a year. The model was applied to Ardak reservoir dam (I.R. Iran) in an arid region. Low river inflow in the dormant season at the study area could not admit the reservoir class changes for specific combinations of state variables, and therefore resulted in a non-usable result. Imposing a fictitious positive relative net benefit for all possible combinations of reservoir class changes eliminated this problem. It was also shown that rainfall did not play a marked role in the study area, which is an arid region, and its stochastic nature can be removed from the model. 相似文献
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《Agricultural Systems》2005,83(2):179-202
French suckler farmers need advice on the implications of the Agenda 2000 CAP reform for their farms and, in particular, on the incentives it offers for a more extensive mode of production. To support the dialogue between advisers and farmers, and thus help farmers with their decision-making, we constructed a linear programming (LP) model that optimises the farming system of the northern Massif Central Charolais suckler cattle farms, which may be either mixed (crop-livestock) or specialised (livestock). This model, called Opt'INRA, incorporated all of the production activities presently encountered in this zone, together with the constraints of the CAP premium attributions. We used it to study how, on the basis of their 1999 data, two farms, representing two situations frequently encountered in the Charolais area (a mixed crop-livestock farm and a specialised livestock farm), could best adapt to Agenda 2000.According to the model, for both of the farms studied, the economic impact of Agenda 2000 is relatively low, albeit negative. The adaptation of the system when possible does not lead to a significant increase in the gross margin of this farms. Agenda 2000 did not encourage farmers to extensify their farming system. On the other hand, this CAP reform discourages them from intensifying. 相似文献
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In economic terms, resilience in farming has to do with the capacity of a farm business to survive various risks and other shocks. Despite its importance, resilience has seldom been directly considered in evaluations of economic sustainability. A whole-farm stochastic simulation model over a 6-year planning horizon was used to analyse organic and conventional cropping systems using a model of a representative farm in Eastern Norway. The relative economic sustainability of alternative systems under changing assumptions about future technology and price regimes was examined in terms of financial survival to the end of the planning period. The same alternatives were also compared in terms of stochastic efficiency. To model the risk of business failure adequately there is a need to deal with the risk of bankruptcy, and a modification of traditional analysis was used for that purpose. The organic farming system was found to be somewhat less economically sustainable than the conventional system, especially if the organic price premiums and the organic area payments were to be phased out. The results illustrate possible conflicts between pursuit of risk efficiency and economic sustainability. The model developed could be used to support farmers’ choices between farming systems as well as to help policy makers develop more sharply targeted policies. 相似文献
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《Agricultural Systems》2006,89(2-3):205-226
This paper explores the way in which dairy farmers perceive their environment (PE), i.e., the external context of their farm, and the uncertainty (PEU) this poses to them. The environment is defined using the STEP concept (society, technology, economy and politics) and Porter’s five forces model. The relationship between the perception of the external farm environment and the strategy farmers choose for their farm is quantified to gain insight into the effect of the external farm environment on decision-making. Data from a survey of 103 Dutch dairy farmers was analyzed using regression analysis. The results indicate that environmental uncertainty is not related to complexity or dynamism, but to the illiberality (i.e., intolerance, hostility) of the external farm environment. The institutional environment is considered especially illiberal, thus causing high uncertainty. Farmers with high PEU are more likely to choose a diversification strategy, while low perceived uncertainty results in a process-control strategy for the farm. A growth strategy is not affected by perceived environmental uncertainty. The PE and PEU approach is new in agricultural research and shows that the farmer’s view on the external environment is a key issue for decision-making on farms The significant relationship between the perceived uncertainty caused by the external farm environment and farm strategies shows that to get a good understanding of the farm, farming system boundaries should be expanded to incorporate the effect of the external farm environment on decision making. Reduction of uncertainty will enhance decision-making because instead of farming within an uncertain context, risk management practices can be used. 相似文献
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《Agricultural Systems》1999,60(1):55-69
This study investigates the impact of price and yield uncertainty on the value of new legumes and their place in a Mediterranean region of Western Australia. It uses the stochastic bioeconomic farming system Model of an Uncertain Dryland Agricultural System (MUDAS) to integrate climatic, agronomic and economic information. A robust finding is that chick peas in rotation with wheat on some clayey loam soil classes are a profitable addition to optimal farm plans, increasing the certainty equivalence of profit on a typical farm by 7%. By contrast, modelling results for field peas and faba beans suggest they are likely to form a minor role in the farming system, being occasionally selected under certain price and weather-year conditions. Modelling results highlight a farmer's attitude to risk and the proportion of the farm area with suitable soils as important determinants of the role and value of the new legumes in the farming system. These findings, if supported by further investigations, have important implications for breeding and agronomic research. © 相似文献
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Jean-Marc Blazy Philippe Tixier Harry Ozier-Lafontaine Jacques Wery 《Agricultural Systems》2010,103(4):221-232
The ex ante assessment of innovative agro-ecological innovations is a key step in the development of more sustainable crop management systems. To this end, models are useful tools because they make it possible to rapidly assess numerous innovations in different contexts. Whereas many farm optimisation models focusing on the farmer’s strategic decision to adopt new crop management systems have been published, little attention has been given to the ex ante modelling of the dynamic operational impacts of innovation adoption at the farm level. BANAD, a mechanistic model for such applications, is proposed. It allows the ex ante assessment of innovative management systems including new agro-ecological techniques, while taking into account different farming contexts and policy and market conditions. It includes three components: (i) a crop management system model, (ii) a crop model (SIMBA) and (iii) a farming system model. Our results applied to the ex ante assessment of six innovative banana management systems for three contrasted farm types in Guadeloupe showed that the impacts of agro-ecological innovations, which include rotations, improved fallow, intercropping, pest-resistant cultivar, and an integrated organic system, can vary considerably according to (i) the farm type in which the innovation is integrated, (ii) the nature of the agro-ecological innovations, and (iii) the criteria considered and the temporal horizon of the assessment. Innovative intercropping systems that were effective at the field level in terms of the yield improvement and decreased pesticide use could be problematic at the farm level because they increased the workload and decreased income. The adoption of rotations or improved fallow seemed to be relevant for smallholders but could induce a critical period of 1.5-2.5 years during which income decreased drastically. Under certain conditions of markets and subsidies, very environmentally friendly innovations that are less productive can however be economically effective. 相似文献
15.
《Agricultural Systems》1998,58(4):529-554
An integrated approach to reservoir, irrigation, and cropping management which links four different models—a hydrologic model (PRMS), a crop growth simulation model (EPIC), an economic model based on linear programming, and a dynamic programming model—is developed and demonstrated. The demonstration is based on an irrigation district located in a subhumid climate with an irrigation reservoir large enough for over-year storage. The model is used to make repeated simulations for various planning horizons. Two different types of results are presented. The first provides the probability that each of the various farm plans (land/crop/water allocation) will be chosen as the optimum in the first year of the planning horizon. The second approach provides probability distributions of accumulated revenues over a chosen length of planning horizon. Each distribution is associated with an initial reservoir level and a particular farm plan in the first year of the planning horizon. The consequence of selecting certain farm plans at the beginning of a specified planning horizon is therefore quantified in a probabilistic way. Based on families of probability–revenue curves, an irrigation manager can simultaneously evaluate crop, irrigation, and reservoir management options. 相似文献
16.
《Agricultural Systems》2004,82(2):139-160
Farm level modelling can be used to determine how farm management adjustments and environmental policy affect different sustainability indicators. In this paper indicators were included in a dairy farm LP (linear programming)-model to analyse the effects of environmental policy and management measures on economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms. For analysing ecological sustainability, seven indicators were included in the model: eutrophication potential, nitrate concentration in groundwater, water use, acidification potential, global warming potential, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and aquatic ecotoxicity. Net farm income was included for measuring economic sustainability. The farm structure of “De Marke” formed the basis for three optimisations: (1) basis situation without environmental policy, (2) situation with Dutch environmental policy for 2004, and (3) situation with farm management measures applied at “De Marke”. The Dutch environmental policy was included to comply with the EC nitrate directive. It resulted in lower fertiliser use and consequently in a decrease in sales of maize. This led to a decrease in net farm income of ca. €2500. Including this policy improved most used ecological indicators (except for ecotoxicity) and showed to be an effective tool to reduce the environmental impact of dairy farming. Adapting the model with farm management measures applied at experimental farm “De Marke” resulted in even better ecological performance compared to the situation with environmental policy. Nonetheless this increase in ecological performance led to a considerably lower net farm income (€14,500). 相似文献
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《Agricultural Systems》1987,25(3):165-176
Tsai et al. (1987) developed a combined network optimization—simulation model for optimal sequencing of multiple cropping systems. Essentially, simulations were used to generate a deterministic activity network. Then an optimization technique (K Longest Path algorithm) was applied to solve optimal sequences of multiple cropping. Using north Florida as a study region, the model was utilized to investigate optimal multiple cropping sequences in an irrigated or non-irrigated field. The results indicated that, for a non-irrigated farm, winter wheat followed by either soybean, maize or peanut was the most profitable cropping rotation in a multiple cropping sequence. Especially favorable was the double cropping of wheat—peanut. For an irrigated farm, a peanut crop was found to be prominent. In the case where peanut was not considered in the rotation, inclusion of irrigated wheat—maize cropping could not be recommended as a profitable multiple cropping system. Instead, double cropping of maize—soybean was the main scheme under irrigation with the possible substitution of a wheat—soybean crop sequence. To obtain higher, stable net returns, a north Florida farmer with no irrigation capability should plan his production system according to multiple cropping sequences SQ2 or SQ4 in the study. Use of these results for real-time decision making requires that the optimization be evaluated to select each new crop using current farm status and future expected weather and market conditions. 相似文献
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Optimal on-farm irrigation scheduling with a seasonal water limit using simulated annealing 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As water resources are limited and the demand for agricultural products increases, it becomes increasingly important to use irrigation water optimally. At a farm scale, farmer's have a particularly strong incentive to optimize their irrigation water use when the volume of water available over a season is production limiting. In this situation, a farmer's goal is to maximize farm profit, by adjusting when and where irrigation water is used. However, making the very best decisions about when and where to irrigate is not easy, since these daily decisions require consideration of the entire remaining irrigation season. Future rainfall uncertainty further complicates decisions on when and which crops should be subjected to water stress. This paper presents an innovative on-farm irrigation scheduling decision support method called the Canterbury irrigation scheduler (CIS) that is suitable when seasonal water availability is limited. Previous optimal scheduling methods generally use stochastic dynamic programming, which requires over-simplistic plant models, limiting their practical usefulness. The CIS method improves on previous methods because it accommodates realistic plant models. Future farm profit (the objective function) is calculated using a time-series simulation model of the farm. Different irrigation management strategies are tested using the farm simulation model. The irrigation strategies are defined by a set of decision variables, and the decision variables are optimized using simulated annealing. The result of this optimization is an irrigation strategy that maximizes the expected future farm profit. This process is repeated several times during the irrigation season using the CIS method, and the optimal irrigation strategy is modified and improved using updated climate and soil moisture information. The ability of the CIS method to produce near optimal decisions was demonstrated by a comparison to previous stochastic dynamic programming schedulers. A second case study shows the CIS method can incorporate more realistic farm models than is possible when using stochastic dynamic programming. This case study used the FarmWi$e/APSIM model developed by CSIRO, Australia. Results show that when seasonal water limit is the primary constraint on water availability, the CIS could increase pasture yield revenue in Canterbury (New Zealand) in the order of 10%, compared with scheduling irrigation using current state of the art scheduling practice. 相似文献
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《Agricultural Systems》2005,86(1):29-51
The methodology presented in this paper aims at analysing whether there is room for improvement of vegetable farmers’ income in Canelón Grande (Uruguay), while reducing soil erosion and improving physical and biological soil fertility, and to gain insight in the influence of farmers’ resource availability on the opportunities for sustainable development. The (generic) approach we developed to support re-design of farming systems in this region is unique in dealing with complex temporal interactions in crop rotations and spatial heterogeneity on farms in one integrated method, while revealing trade-off between economic and environmental objectives. Rather than an arbitrary sub-set, all feasible crop rotations were generated, using a tool named ROTAT. The crop rotations were combined with a range of production techniques according to pre-defined design criteria to create a wide variety of alternative production activities at the field scale. We used process-based simulation models supplemented with empirical data and expert knowledge to quantify inputs and outputs of production activities. We developed a mixed integer linear programming model (MILP), named Farm Images, to allocate production activities to a farm with land units differing in soil quality, while maximising or minimising socio-economic and environmental objectives, subject to constraints at the farm level. Production activities comprised current practices as well as activities new to the area. We used Farm Images to design farm systems for seven existing farms in Canelón Grande with different resource availability. The farm systems designed by the model had higher family income than current systems for six of the seven farms studied. The estimated average soil erosion per ha decreased by a factor of 2–4 in the farm systems proposed compared to the current systems, while the rate of change of soil organic matter increased from negative in the current systems to +130 to +280 kg ha−1 yr−1 in the proposed farm systems. The degree to which the objectives could be achieved was strongly affected by farm resource endowment, i.e., particularly by the fraction of the area irrigated, soil quality and labour availability per ha. The study suggests that decreasing the area of vegetable crops by introducing long crop rotations with pastures and green manure during the inter-crop periods and integrating beef cattle production into the farm systems would often be a better strategy than the actual farmers’ practice. 相似文献
20.
The factors influencing the decision of smallholder farmers to adopt new farming technologies were studied with reference to rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka. Rubber–tea intercropping has been recommended previously to rubber farmers as a means to improve productivity and income during the early pre-tapping phase of rubber growth. Although crop trials have shown that the two crops are agronomically compatible and potentially produce a combined economic yield superior to the yield of a sole crop grown on the same area of land, there is little evidence of widespread adoption of this practice among smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka. The aim of the study was to determine the major factors that influence the decision to undertake rubber–tea intercropping and to construct a predictive model that describes the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by traditional smallholder rubber growers. A rapid rural appraisal (RRA) was undertaken based on semi-structured interviews of 90 smallholder farmers in the main rubber growing low wet zone of Sri Lanka. Among a number of factors shown to significantly influence the decision to intercrop tea with rubber, three were shown to operate independently, namely level of income, source of income (i.e. solely from own farm or from farm plus additional off-farm enterprises), and availability of land considered suitable for tea cultivation. A statistical model developed through correlation and logistic analysis, which predicts the likelihood of a smallholder adopting intercropping based on these factors, is presented and discussed. The most likely combination of circumstances (82% probability) under which rubber–tea intercropping is practiced is shown to be where the farmer’s income is greater than Rs. 10,000 per month, where the farmer’s income is based solely on own farm enterprises, and where more than 80% of the farmer’s land area was judged to be suitable for tea cultivation. Conversely, 30% of smallholder farmers that chose not to intercrop did possess land suitable for tea cultivation. Qualitative responses to the RRA indicated that limitation of technical knowledge was the main problem subsequently faced by rubber farmers who had adopted rubber–tea intercropping. Results indicate that there is need for both income support through farm subsidies and further agricultural extension services, if rubber–tea intercropping is to be adopted more widely in Sri Lanka. The wider usefulness of the developed logistic model in determining the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by smallholder farmers is discussed. 相似文献