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1.
Sardine fisheries in the Iberian Atlantic shelf (36°N–44.5°N) show decadal‐scale cycles. In the late 1990s, a positive phase in sardine stock was expected; on the contrary, catches have declined until now. Regime shifts in climatic and oceanographic variables on different scales (as forcing factor) and shifts in sardine stock (as result) have been used with the aim of identifying the physical variables that explain most of the sardine population variance in the region. Circa 1998, when last sardine regime shift was detected, the main patterns of large‐scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere with influence in the study area namely Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern changed and coupled in a combination that led to a rise in sea surface temperature and a decline in the coastal upwelling intensity. Several years with a downwelling situation in average in the main spawning and feeding Iberian sardine areas would have affected the stock abundance, averting the return to the projected positive regime. The sardine negative regime shift was detected first in the regions of the study located further north. The regional variable latent heat flux that groups a set of environmental processes related to the ocean–atmosphere heat exchanges and so with the turbulence manages to explain the 72% of sardine recruitment.  相似文献   

2.
The Bay of Biscay anchovy has experienced, since 2001, a succession of low recruitments, resulting in the collapse of the stock in 2005; this has led to successive closures of the fishery. This study investigates the possible impact of different controlling factors [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, turbulence, upwelling, and river flow] upon anchovy recruitment and fishery catches. Fifty‐five percent of the recruitment variability of this fishery can be explained by upwelling over the spawning area; this is related, in turn, to the EA pattern. The conceptual understanding of the system proposed for the Bay of Biscay anchovy suggests that negative EA periods are associated with northeasterly wind circulation, which produces weak upwelling over the continental shelf. This pattern results in hydrodynamic stability over the area, leading, probably, to adequate food availability. A positive EA (which extends onwards, from 1998) is associated with southwesterly winds and downwelling over the continental shelf; this leads, probably, to the dispersion of anchovy food and larvae, together with increasing mortality.  相似文献   

3.
Most of the monthly catches and CPUE of 13 studied commercial species in the coastal waters of the north-western Mediterranean were significantly positively correlated with run-off of local rivers (Rhône and Muga) and the wind mixing index during the spawning season, with time lags of less than a year (transfer function analyses). Rhône and Ebre interannual fluctuations in run-off were synchronous and were related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), river run-offs being negatively correlated to high NAO episodes. The fluctuations of river discharges and the wind mixing index were cyclic but not related. The results showed that enhanced hydroclimatic conditions in the NW Mediterranean were favourable for the productivity of the fish and invertebrate stocks, and suggest the presence of linkage between recruitment of Mediterranean species and local (river discharges, wind conditions) and global (NAO) environmental conditions.  相似文献   

4.
Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north-east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large-scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from 14 populations were analysed to determine links to various environmental variables and to develop recruitment forecasting models using a Ricker-type environmentally dependent spawner–recruit model. The environmental variables used for this investigation included monthly time series of the following: southern oscillation index, North Pacific pressure index, sea surface temperatures, air temperatures, coastal upwelling indices, Bering Sea wind, Bering Sea ice cover, and Bering Sea bottom temperatures. Exploratory correlation analysis was used for focusing the time period examined for each environmental variable. Candidate models for forecasting herring recruitment were selected by the ordinary and recent cross-validation prediction errors. Results indicated that forecasting models using air and sea surface temperature data lagged to the year of spawning generally produced the best forecasting models. Multiple environmental variables showed marked improvements in prediction over single-environmental-variable models.  相似文献   

5.
We investigate the effect of strong meteorological perturbations in early spring on the success of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment in the N/NW Iberian area (southern Bay of Biscay) for the period 1999–2008. In 2000, the year of the most pronounced recruitment failure on record, two consecutive multidisciplinary surveys sampled hydrographic conditions and mackerel eggs, larvae and post‐larvae over the main mackerel spawning grounds of the north and northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Analysis of egg and larval abundance and birthdates based on the otoliths of mackerel juveniles caught between July and October 2000 showed that there were no survivors from the early spring spawns, indicating a massive loss of early spawning effort. Moreover, the abundance of 1‐year‐old mackerel estimated from an acoustic survey carried out in 2001 was the lowest observed within the 1999–2008 time series. This low or null survival from the early spawns in 2000 could be due to the meteorological and oceanographic conditions of that spring, in particular two storm events in April after a relatively calm March. The first storm event from the north caused strong local wind in the southern Bay of Biscay but a weak oceanographic response. The second storm event from the southwest was mainly felt west of Galicia and caused a notable increase in shelf currents and a shift of the hydrographical structure along the shelf. Detailed analysis of strong wind pulses in early spring within the historical recruitment record suggests that strong local turbulence generated by high wind speeds and advection of larvae caused by the enhancement of shelf currents can contribute to reduced recruitment. Our observations indicate that, in 2000, both mechanisms were present.  相似文献   

6.
Off southern‐central Chile, the impact of spring upwelling variability on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment was examined by analyzing satellite and coastal station winds, satellite chlorophyll, and common sardine recruitment from a stock assessment model. In austral spring, the intensity of wind‐driven upwelling is related to sea surface temperature (SST) from the Niño 3.4 region, being weak during warm periods (El Niño) and strong during cold periods (La Niña). Interannual changes in both spring upwelling intensity and SST from the Niño 3.4 region are related to changes in remotely sensed chlorophyll over the continental shelf. In turn, year‐to‐year changes in coastal chlorophyll are tightly coupled to common sardine recruitment. We propose that, in the period 1991–2004, interannual changes in the intensity of spring upwelling affected the abundance and availability of planktonic food for common sardine, and consequently determined pre‐recruit survival and recruitment strength. However, the importance of density‐dependent factors on the reproductive dynamic cannot be neglected, as a negative association exists between spawning biomass and recruitment‐per‐spawning biomass. Coastal chlorophyll, upwelling intensity, and SST anomalies from the Niño 3.4 region could potentially help to predict common sardine recruitment scenarios under strong spring upwelling and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related anomalies.  相似文献   

7.
A growth and survival model of the early life stages was run along virtual drift trajectories tracked in a hydrodynamic model to simulate the annual recruitment process of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic). These biophysical simulations concerning three different years were analysed in order to investigate the influence of environment and spawning dynamics on the survival of larvae and juveniles. The location of space–time survival windows suggested major environmental mechanisms involved in simulated recruitment variability at the different scales – retention of larvae and juveniles in favourable habitats over the shelf margins and turbulence effects. These small‐scale and meso‐scale mechanisms were related to the variations in wind direction and intensity during spring and summer. Survival was also variable according to the origin of the drift trajectories, that is spawning distribution in space and time. The observed spawning distribution (according to field surveys) was compared with the spawning distribution that would maximize survival (according to the biophysical model) on a seasonal scale, which revealed factors not considered in the biophysical model (e.g. spawning behaviour of the different age classes). The variation of simulated survival according to spawning distribution was examined on a multi‐annual scale and showed a coherent pattern with past and present stock structures. The interaction processes between the population (influence on spawning) and its environment (influence on survival) and its implications on recruitment and stock dynamics are discussed.  相似文献   

8.
Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the northeast Atlantic have shown changes in distribution at certain times of the year, which have impacted their exploitation and management. In this study, mackerel spawning habitat over 21 recent years was characterised using generalised additive modelling, based on spatial egg density data collected every third year during targeted ichthyoplankton surveys. Mackerel spawning distribution was found to depend primarily on geographical variables (coordinates and bottom depth), with preferred spawning locations on the shelf‐edge from the north of the Iberian peninsula to the west of Scotland, with a maximum west of Ireland. Environmental drivers had a lesser influence on egg distribution. Dome shaped relationships were found with temperature and mixed layer depth, with respective optimum at 13°C and around –300 m. The model was used to reconstruct maps of the potential habitat (areas where conditions were suitable, but not necessarily used, for spawning). Little changes were observed over the years in the potential habitat, suggesting that the expansion of the egg distribution (realised habitat) was not triggered by changes in the environmental variables investigated. Little evidence was found for density‐dependent habitat selection. There was a tendency for mackerel to make more use of areas of lesser suitability in years with large stock size (1992 and 2010). This pattern, however, broke down in 2013, when stock size was the highest, as spawning occurred very south and concentrated in the most suitable habitat.  相似文献   

9.
There is considerable interest in understanding the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on recruitment to North Atlantic cod stocks. An earlier analysis of data for the North‐east Arctic cod stock showed that, while there is an empirical relationship between recruitment and the NAO over the period 1973–96, this relationship was absent over the period 1946–72. It has recently been suggested that the effect of the NAO on recruitment depends on the size of the spawning stock. Here, the possibility that this explains the earlier result for North‐east Arctic cod is tested and rejected.  相似文献   

10.
Different stock–recruitment models were fitted to North Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) recruitment and spawning stock biomass data. A classical density dependence hypothesis, a recent environmental‐dependence hypothesis and a combination of both were considered. For the latter case, four stock–environment–recruitment models were used: Ricker, Beverton‐Holt, Deriso's General Model (modified to take into account environmental effects) and conditioned Neural Networks. Cross‐validation analysis showed that the modified Deriso model had the best predictive capability. It detected an inverse effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on recruitment, a Ricker‐type behaviour with density dependent overcompensation when environmental conditions are unfavourable and a Beverton–Holt‐type behaviour towards an asymptotic recruitment carrying capacity with favourable environmental conditions. The Neural Network model also detected that under favourable environmental conditions high spawning stock biomass does not necessarily have a depensatory effect on recruitment. Moreover, they suggest that under extremely favourable environmental conditions, albacore recruitment could increase well above the asymptotic carrying capacity predicted by Beverton–Holt‐type models. However, the general decrease in spawning stock biomass in recent years and increasing NAO trends suggest that there is low probability of exceptionally large recruitment in the future and instead there is a danger of recruitment overfishing.  相似文献   

11.
Between 1982 and 1991, an annual survey of stage I egg production of Atlantic mackerel ( Scomber scombrus ) was conducted in June/early July in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence. We investigated the relationship between interannual variability in biomass of zooplankton, determined from the archived survey plankton samples, and mackerel recruitment, estimated from the proportion of three-year-olds in the catch of the commercial fishery. Zooplankton biomass varied by a factor of 2.5, primarily owing to fluctuations in the >1000 μm size fraction. The index of mackerel recruitment fluctuated by a factor of ≈20 and was positively related (linear regression: P  < 0.05; n  = 10) to variations in the zooplankton biomass. Both mackerel recruitment and zooplankton biomass were negatively related (linear regression: P  < 0.05) to RIVSUM, a measure of freshwater discharge from the St Lawrence River system and an index of variability in the region's climate. Three hypotheses are put forward to explain these observations: (1) there is a strong link between interannual variation in abundance of copepod females, which produce prey for mackerel larvae, and larval survival; the exceptional recruitment and subsequent year class resulted from an exceptional production of Calanus finmarchicus nauplii; (2) years of high zooplankton biomass provide better feeding conditions and consequently higher survival of mackerel juveniles; and (3) mackerel recruitment and zooplankton biomass are independently under the control of an underlying physical process, without strong trophic linkage. The first hypothesis is supported by a study of copepod species composition and female abundance conducted for four of the survey years. At the present time, none of these hypotheses can be ruled out.  相似文献   

12.
Hake recruitment has been examined in relation to environmental variables in two of the main reproductive areas of the central Mediterranean, the northern and central Tyrrhenian Sea. Seventeen years time series data from trawl surveys revealed high fluctuations in recruit abundance that could not be just explained by spawning biomass estimations. Generalized additive models were developed to investigate hake recruitment dynamics in the Tyrrhenian Sea in relation to spawner abundance and selected key oceanographic variables. Environmental data were explored in attempt to explain survival processes that could affect early life history stages of hake and that accounted for high fluctuations in its recruitment.Thermal anomalies in summer, characterised by high peaks in water temperature, revealed a negative effect on the abundance of recruits in autumn, probably due to a reduction in hake egg and larval survival rates. In the northern Tyrrhenian, recruitment was reduced when elevated sea-surface temperatures were coupled with lower levels of water circulation. Enhanced spring primary production, related to late winter low temperatures could affect water mass productivity in the following months, thus influencing spring recruitment. In the central Tyrrhenian a dome-shaped relationship between wind mixing in early spring and recruitment could be interpreted as an “optimal environmental window” in which intermediate water mixing level played a positive role in phytoplankton displacement, larval feeding rate and appropriate larval drift. Results are discussed in relation to the decline in hake stock biomass and within the present climate change and global warming context.  相似文献   

13.
The poleward movements of northeast Atlantic (NEA) mackerel (Scomber scombrus) catches, possibly linked to climate change, are causing a major international disagreement over quotas. We present an analysis of spatially resolved catch data from 1977 to 2013 that shows how a northward shift is only part of the change in the fishery. There was a 30‐yr trend for declining catches per ICES rectangle (0.5° latitude by 1°‐degree longitude) until 2011–2013. Catches also moved further offshore, to areas of deeper waters. Segmented regressions suggested discontinuities in the temporal pattern of change in catch‐related variables. In particular, the number of ICES rectangles fished rose sharply around 1987. Generalized additive models (GAMs) suggest that much of the movement of fishing activity to areas of deeper water can be associated with variation in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). GAM models had a lower predictive error than linear or simple autoregressive models of change in catch‐related variables. Although climate indices can be linked to some of the changes in catch, it may be difficult to extrapolate future patterns in the catch: some of the GAM smoothers are non‐linear, and the oceanographic processes linked to climate index values are not homogenous across the area occupied by mackerel. A practical implication of the reported changes in catch since 1977 is that vessels are now reportedly fishing further offshore, which has implications for fuel consumption and profitability of the fishery.  相似文献   

14.
An individual‐based model (IBM) for the simulation of year‐to‐year survival during the early life‐history stages of the north‐east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf‐Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post‐larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post‐larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age‐0/age‐1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter‐annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north‐east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south‐eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.  相似文献   

15.
We investigated the effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). Based on generalized additive models, we (i) modelled the optimal spawning habitat of mackerel in the sGSL using daily egg production (DEP) in June, (ii) predicted known and new potential present spawning habitats in the GSL and the north‐west Atlantic, and (iii) assessed how they respond to future climate change. Our findings showed that both mackerel presence–absence and given‐presence DEP were associated with sea surface temperature (10–16.5°C), salinity above 31 and depth < 120 m. Adding zooplankton showed a marked effect on the DEP given‐presence compared to the presence–absence. Predictions of spawning habitats under present (1999–2012) and future scenario (2066–2085) conditions were estimated from the presence–absence model without zooplankton, using physical conditions of the BNAM. Under present conditions, our model predicted well the main spawning habitat in the sGSL and other known secondary spawning habitats in the northern GSL (nGSL), the western and southern Newfoundland, and the north‐west Atlantic coast. Under future conditions, our study suggests that spawning habitats in the sGSL and the nGSL would expand. Our results, therefore, suggest that mackerel could benefit from a warmer GSL, minimizing the potential for a northward migration of the stock due to decreasing suitability of the sGSL as its main spawning ground, and a new but spatially limited potential habitat in Newfoundland coasts. These results can be used to inform stock management and develop adaptive management plans in the context of climate change.  相似文献   

16.
The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is the primary spawning ground for western Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). In this work, information reported by previous studies about the preferred environmental conditions for the occurrence of bluefin tuna larvae in the GOM is integrated into a dimensionless index, the BFT_Index. This index is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of areas with favorable environmental conditions for larvae within the GOM during 1993–2011. The main findings of this work are that: (i) the proposed index successfully captures the spatial and temporal variability in the in situ occurrence of bluefin tuna larvae; (ii) areas with favorable environmental conditions for larvae in the GOM exhibit year‐to‐year spatial and temporal variability linked with mesoscale ocean features and sea surface temperature; and (iii) comparison of the BFT_Index‐derived variability with recruitment of age‐0 fish estimated from recent stock assessment indicates that changes in environmental conditions may drive a relevant component (~58%) of the recruitment variability. The comparison with the recruitment dataset further revealed the existence of key regions linked with recruitment in the central/northern GOM, and that the Loop Current may function as a trap for larvae, possibly leading to low survival rates. Above (below) average conditions for occurrence of larvae in the GOM during spring were observed in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2006–2008, and 2011 (1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003 and 2010). Results reported here have potential applications to assessment of bluefin tuna.  相似文献   

17.
We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969–87 and unfavorable during 1951–67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976–77 and 1985–88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969–70 and 1988–92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes.  相似文献   

18.
Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important fish species in the Atlantic. Its recruitment has, for unknown reasons, been exceptional from 1998 to 2012. The majority (75%) of the survivors in the first winter were found north of an oceanographic division at approximately 52°N, despite the fact that mackerel spawns over a wide range of latitudes. Multivariate time series modelling of survivor abundance in the north revealed a significant correlation with the abundance of copepodites (stage I–IV) of Calanus sp. in the spawning season (April to June). The copepodites were a mix of C. helgolandicus (dominating) and C. finmarchicus. The growth of mackerel larvae is known to be positively related to the availability of nauplii and copopodites of preferred prey species, namely, large calanoid copepod species such as Calanus. The statistical relationship between mackerel survivors and abundance of Calanus, therefore, most likely, reflected a causal relationship: high availability of Calanus probably reduced starvation, stage‐specific predation and cannibalism (owing to prey switching). The effects of other abundant, but less preferred zooplankton taxa, (Acartia sp., Branchiopoda spp. and Echinodermata spp. larvae), as well as stock size, temperature and wind‐induced turbulence were not found to be significant. However, stock size was retained in the final model because of a significant interaction with Calanus in oceanic areas west of the North European continental shelf. This was suggested to be a consequence of a density driven expansion of the spawning area that increased the overlap between early life stages of mackerel and food (Calanus) in new areas.  相似文献   

19.
Climatic warming is affecting oceanic circulation patterns in coastal upwelling areas, but the impact of this climatic change on pelagic fish populations remains unclear. From juvenile landings collected over 38 years, the thresholds of environmental factors were determined that limited the optimal environmental window (OEW) for sardine (Sardina pilchardus recruitment success in the northwestern Iberian peninsula. The environmental factors considered were: water column stability in February, offshore water transport in March–April (QxMA), upwelling intensity in the preceding year from May to August (QxMJJA), and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. From 1875 to the mid‐1920s, the mean number of years within the OEW was relatively constant. However, since the mid‐1920s, there have been oscillations and alternating decades with high and low number of years within the OEW, which were related to oscillations in sardine landings. From 1906 to 2000, there were four record, low sardine catches in the 1920s, 1950s, 1970s and 1990s, related to a high number of successive years with prevailing conditions out of the OEW. From 1875 to the present, a high year‐to‐year variation of the NAO, QxMJJA and water stability in February was observed, although with mean values usually within the OEW. The collapse in the 1950s was related, partly, to successive years with low QxMJJA. Successive years with high NAO values may be related to the collapse of the sardine fishery in the 1990s. QxMA has been the most significant factor controlling SRS in this area, being the factor related to the low catches observed in the 1920s, 1950s and 1970s. Water stability was not responsible for any of the collapses observed, but since the 1920s, there has been a significant trend toward decreasing water column stability before the onset of the spring bloom.  相似文献   

20.
Time series of adult recruitment for natural runs of coho salmon from the Oregon coastal region (1970–94) and marine survival of hatchery-reared coho salmon from California to Washington (1960–94) are significantly correlated with a suite of meteorological and oceanographic variables related to the biological productivity of the local coastal region. These variables include strong upwelling, cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong wind mixing, a deep and weakly stratified mixed layer, and low coastal sea level, indicating strong transport of the California Current. Principal component analysis indicates that these variables work in concert to define the dominant modes of physical variability, which appear to regulate nutrient availability and biological productivity. Multiple regression analysis suggests that coho marine survival is significantly and independently related to the dominant modes acting over this region in the periods when the coho first enter the ocean and during the overwintering/spring period prior to their spawning migration. Linear relationships provided good fits to the data and were robust, capable of predicting randomly removed portions of the data set.  相似文献   

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