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1.
Driejana  Lee  D. S.  Kingdon  R. D.  Raper  D. W.  Gee  I. L. 《Water, air, and soil pollution》2001,130(1-4):319-324
This paper discusses the use of a long-term Lagrangian receptor-oriented trajectory model for assessing acidic deposition to the United Kingdom at high spatial resolution. Previously, a coarse resolution of 20 km was used. Impact assessments using the critical loads approach now require higher-resolutions of modelled data for future scenarios. In this paper, first results from a higher resolution of 5 km using a revised parameterization of orographic enhancement of the seeder-feeder effect. It was found that country budgets for the two different model resolutions were in good agreement and compared well with observations, except in the far north of Scotland where the straight-line trajectory approach is less valid.  相似文献   

2.
Alpine areas are important biodiversity reservoirs, but are subject to anthropogenic drivers including climate change, nitrogen deposition and changing land use. Alpine vegetation has been proposed as an indicator of climate change impacts, but this requires long-term data since these communities have high inertia. Most studies have focussed on climate impacts in open, high-alpine summit communities; we investigated responses of closed low- and middle-alpine communities to multiple drivers. Scottish alpine vegetation data collected 1963-1987 was used as a baseline to assess biodiversity change across a range of habitats and a wide geographic spread. Change was assessed over a 20-40 years period using a variety of metrics including α- and β-diversity indices and biodiversity changes were contrasted between habitats and areas. We also examined changes in key species′ distribution and cover. Species richness increased in most habitats, while diversity at the plot scale and β-diversity declined, resulting in increased homogeneity of vegetation. This occurred in closed alpine communities over a 20-40 years period, implying that these communities are considerably more dynamic than previously thought. Key northern and alpine species declined while lowland generalist species increased. This change was consistent with predicted impacts of climate change, but other elements of spatial pattern (decline in lichen richness in high deposition areas) were consistent with effects of nitrogen pollution. Assessment of biodiversity change differed according to the metrics used and we argue that biodiversity targets for conservation management need accurate definition and that multiple measures of biodiversity are required to accurately assess long-term change.  相似文献   

3.
We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.  相似文献   

4.

Purpose

This study aimed at investigating correlations between heavy metal concentrations in mosses and modelled deposition values as well as other site-specific and regional characteristics to determine which factors primarily affect cadmium, lead and mercury concentrations in mosses. The resulting relationships could potentially be used to enhance the spatial resolution of heavy metal deposition maps across Europe.

Materials and methods

Modelled heavy metal deposition data and data on the concentration of heavy metals in naturally growing mosses were integrated into a geographic information system and analysed by means of bivariate rank correlation analysis and multivariate decision trees. Modelled deposition data were validated annually with deposition measurements at up to 63 EMEP measurement stations within the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and mosses were collected at up to 7,000 sites at 5-year intervals between 1990 and 2005.

Results and discussion

Moderate to high correlations were found between cadmium and lead concentrations in mosses and modelled atmospheric deposition of these metals: Spearman rank correlation coefficients were between 0.62 and 0.67, and 0.67 and 0.73 for cadmium and lead, respectively (p?<?0.001). Multivariate decision tree analyses showed that cadmium and lead concentrations in mosses were primarily determined by the atmospheric deposition of these metals, followed by emissions of the metals. Low to very low correlations were observed between mercury concentrations in mosses and modelled atmospheric deposition of mercury. According to the multivariate analyses, spatial variations of the mercury concentration in mosses was primarily associated with the sampled moss species and not with the modelled deposition, but regional differences in the atmospheric chemistry of mercury and corresponding interactions with the moss may also be involved.

Conclusions

At least for cadmium and lead, concentrations in mosses are a valuable tool in determining and mapping the spatial variation in atmospheric deposition across Europe at a high spatial resolution. For mercury, more studies are needed to elucidate interactions of different chemical species with the moss.  相似文献   

5.
A regional soil acidification model was developed by integration and adaptation of existing models. The regional model consists of the dynamic multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE, its steady-state version INITSAFE, the atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake reconstruction model MAKEDEP, and a routine with empirical relations concerning depth-dependent parameters. A scheme for the extraction of input to the regional model from available information of different geographical detail also was developed. Basic data sources considered were: 1) national surveys such as the National Forest Inventory, covering site specific information, 2) available point measurements of parameter values, and 3) literature sources. Not all parameters were available on a regional scale with sufficient resolution. Input required for the model calculations therefore was derived from the available data sources by means of transfer algorithms including spatial interpolation. Interpolation was done allocating parameter values determined at reference sites to conventionally mapped entities such as geological units, soil type, and other kinds of geographical information. The exercise resulted in a data base of the required 68 site-specific parameter values covering climatic, deposition and land use parameters, as well as stand characteristics and soil properties.  相似文献   

6.
National conservation planning should operate with measures of biodiversity similar to those applied globally in order to harmonize national and international conservation strategies. Here we suggest quantitative measures which enable two criteria of the global biodiversity hotspots to be applied on a national level for 74 large countries, and show how these measures can be applied to map national biodiversity hotspots. The plant endemism criteria of global hotspots are captured by quantitative measures of endemism, which are approximately scale-independent and can be corrected to account for a country’s environmental conditions and conservation priorities. The flexible land use criteria for national biodiversity hotspots are defined from percentage of natural vegetation remaining in the global hotspots. The minimum-area-required approach is applied to define the borders of national biodiversity hotspots using data on vascular plants species richness. We show how national biodiversity hotspots can be mapped from the species-energy relationship for vascular plants using climate, topographical and land use data when spatial pattern of species richness is not known. This methodology to map national biodiversity hotspots from abiotic factors is applied to Russia as a case study. Three Russian biodiversity hotspots, North Caucasus, South Siberia and Far East were identified. The resulting hotspot maps cover national-scale environmental gradients across Russia and although they are also identified by Russian experts their actual geographical locations were hitherto unspecified. The large-scale national hotspots, identified for Russia, can be used for further fine scale and more detailed conservation planning.  相似文献   

7.
大气氮素沉降研究进展   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  
人为干扰下的大气氮素沉降已成为全球氮素生物化学循环的一个重要组成部分。作为营养源和酸源, 大气氮沉降数量的急剧增加将严重影响陆地及水生生态系统的生产力和稳定性。本文从大气氮沉降对土壤和水体环境、农业和森林生态系统以及生物多样性等方面综述了近年来国内外大气氮素沉降的研究现状及其对生态系统的影响, 并总结探讨了前人采用的大气沉降氮测定方法, 展望了我国大气氮沉降的研究前景。  相似文献   

8.
The ForSAFE-VEG model was used to estimate atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate effects on soil chemistry and ground vegetation in alpine and subalpine zones of the northern and central Rocky Mountains region in the USA from 1750 to 2500. Model simulations for a generalized site illustrated how the critical load of atmospheric nitrogen deposition could be estimated to protect plant biodiversity. The results appear reasonable compared with past model applications in northern Europe. Atmospheric N deposition critical loads estimated to protect plant biodiversity were 1 to 2 kg N/ha/year. This range could be greater, depending on the values selected for critical site-specific parameters (precipitation, temperature, soil chemistry, plant nutrient uptake, and any eventual harvest of biomass) and the amount of biodiversity change allowed.  相似文献   

9.
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10.
In many cases, the designation of Protected Areas (PAs) is not based on biological information, particularly in tropical regions where such information is generally lacking. Thus it is unclear whether tropical PAs are well-placed for conserving biodiversity currently, or under future climate change. We used reserve-design software (‘Zonation’) to investigate current and future conservation value of PAs of Thailand (N = 187 PAs, covering ∼20% of Thailand) in relation to forest-cover and butterfly diversity. Currently, PAs are about 2 °C cooler than non-PAs because PAs tend to occur at higher elevation (66% of land above 1000 m is protected compared with only 6% below 250 m). Temperature is predicted to increase in Thailand in future, but PAs are predicted to remain ∼2 °C cooler than non-PAs in future. We obtained modelled distribution data for 161 butterfly species (∼12% of national butterfly fauna), and used Zonation to rank areas (∼1 km2 grid resolution) based on species richness, complementarity, and forest cover. The conservation value of PAs was approximately twice that of non-PA areas, although many highly-ranked areas are not currently protected. The species richness of PAs was projected to decline by ∼30% in future, but the relative conservation rankings of individual PAs were projected to change very little. The preponderance of PAs in montane regions makes them well-placed to support forest species shifting from areas at lower elevation that become climatically unsuitable in future. By contrast, the conservation value of low-elevation PAs may decline in future if climate conditions become unsuitable for species.  相似文献   

11.
In Europe, land use changes follow public policies, and particularly the Common Agricultural Policy. To predict the effect of policies on agricultural practices, landscape, and ultimately biodiversity, requires understanding of the interactions between social, economic and ecological dynamics at regional scale. We studied by means of prospective scenarios the possible effects of agricultural changes on biodiversity in a Mediterranean upland. This area is characterised by extensive grasslands that have been maintained for centuries by agriculture and are now threatened by tree and shrub encroachment. We built four scenarios that describe possible changes in agricultural EU policies by 2030. We selected 15 bird species on the basis of a high natural heritage responsibility of the study area for these species and 45 plant species on the same basis plus local rarity and habitat vulnerability. We analysed how these species were affected by the four scenarios by considering changes in their habitats. For each scenario, we analysed the driving forces that determine land use changes. Landscape dynamics was modelled with a Generalised Linear Model combining environmental and land use factors. Most of the 60 selected species depend on open habitats. Only the scenario where public support was only granted if it provided environmental services had a positive impact on open habitats and their associated biodiversity. This ‘natural heritage’ scenario was also rated positively by local stakeholders. This approach sheds light on the interest of inter/transdisciplinary studies, scenarios, and stakeholder involvement in the definition of public policies for biodiversity conservation.  相似文献   

12.
The estimation of acidic deposition strongly depends on the availability of accurate emission data. The atmospheric models, that calculate concentrations and depositions of pollutants, need data in a high temporal resolution (e.g. daily, 6-hourly or even hourly data). However, although some progress has been achieved concerning annual emission data for Europe (e.g. CORINAIR 90), only very little information is available about the temporal variation of these emissions during a year. Therefore, within the EUROTRAC-GENEMIS project special emphasis was laid on the development of methods to generate emissions with a high temporal and spatial resolution. As results the temporal and spatial distribution of SO2- and NOX-emissions are shown. The results indicate, that the emissions vary considerably over time and that the use of simple patterns for the temporal disaggregation is not sufficient for modelling and assessment of acidic deposition.  相似文献   

13.
Atmospheric fate of pesticides and their possible effects in ecosystems beyond the immediate surrounding of the application site are not actively considered in currently used regulatory risk assessment schemes. Concern with respect to atmospheric transport and subsequent deposition of pesticides in non-target areas is however growing. In this article the results of discussions on the possibilities of implementing atmospheric fate in regulatory risk assessment are presented. It is concluded that implementing atmospheric fate in regulatory risk assessment schemes is possible and that, from a scientific point of view, these schemes should distinguish between pesticides on the basis of both their possibility/probability to reach non-target areas and on their toxicity. This implies that application of the precautionary principle or use of intrinsic pesticide properties alone is not considered justifiable. It is recommended that the risk assessment scheme should follow a tiered approach. The first tier should be entered only if the existing regulatory risk assessment procedure, including a local PEC:PNEC calculation, has been passed and involves a test for the pesticide's total atmospheric emission potential, i.e. its potential for becoming airborne during and after application. The second tier, which is only entered if the total emission potential is higher than a certain trigger value, should consist of a PEC:PNEC calculation for regional off-site areas (10-50 km) (tier 2A). If the pesticide's atmospheric transport potential is expected to exceed a certain value, the PEC:PNEC ratio should also be calculated for more remote areas (>1000 km) (tier 2B).  相似文献   

14.
Does organic farming benefit biodiversity?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
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15.
The critical loads approach to quantifying areas at risk of damage requires deposition and critical loads data at the same spatial scale to calculate exceedance. While maps of critical loads for soil acidification are available at a 1 km scale no monitoring networks in Europe measure wet and dry inputs at this scale and, further, the models currently used to estimate deposition incorporate a number of assumptions which are not valid at the 1 km scale. Simulations of 1 km deposition from 20 km data show that the uncertainty introduced by using 20 km scale estimates of deposition is small, except in mountain areas where it can give misleading results, but a major problem is the uncertainty in estimates of deposition at the 20 km scale produced by the current models.  相似文献   

16.
Protected areas worldwide are facing increasing pressures to co-manage human development and biodiversity conservation. One strategy for managing multiple uses within and around protected areas is zoning, an approach in which spatial boundaries are drawn to distinguish areas with varying degrees of allowable human impacts. However, zoning designations are rarely evaluated for their efficacy using empirical data related to both human and biodiversity characteristics. To evaluate the effectiveness of zoning designations, we developed an integrated approach. The approach was calibrated empirically using data from Wolong Nature Reserve, a flagship protected area for the conservation of endangered giant pandas in China. We analyzed the spatial distribution of pandas, as well as human impacts (roads, houses, tourism infrastructure, livestock, and forest cover change) with respect to zoning designations in Wolong. Results show that the design of the zoning scheme could be improved to account for pandas and their habitat, considering the amount of suitable habitat outside of the core zone (area designated for biodiversity conservation). Zoning was largely successful in containing houses and roads to their designated experimental zone, but was less effective in containing livestock and was susceptible to boundary adjustments to allow for tourism development. We identified focus areas for potential zoning revision that could better protect the panda population without significantly compromising existing human settlements. Our findings highlight the need for evaluating the efficacy of zoning in other protected areas facing similar challenges with balancing human needs and conservation goals, not only in China but also around the world.  相似文献   

17.
A protocol is developed for the incorporation of multiple criteria, including spatial design and socio-political criteria, into the design of conservation area networks. This protocol begins with the identification of the non-dominated set of alternatives, where each alternative is a network of conservation areas that satisfies biodiversity representation targets. This set is then refined to identify a finally preferred alternative using a modification of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This modification ensures that the results obtained are identical to those that would be obtained using standard multiattribute value theory while allowing the use of the transparent preference method of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The final stage of the protocol consists of sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the ranking of the alternative set. The protocol is applied to a practical data set from northern Namibia to identify a set of land units that can be targeted for biodiversity conservation beyond the existing national parks.  相似文献   

18.
A number of global priority region schemes have been developed, but local assessments are needed to identify priority areas for conservation within these regions. Here, we describe results from a conservation assessment for Maputaland, part of a biodiversity hotspot in southern Africa that is also the focus of the Lubombo Transfrontier Conservation Area (TFCA) initiative between South Africa, Mozambique and Swaziland. The TFCA seeks to establish new state-, private- and communally-managed conservation areas to boost economic development through nature-based tourism and game ranching. The assessment will guide the TFCA process and used a systematic conservation planning approach to design a landscape to conserve 44 landcover types, 53 species and 14 ecological processes. The assessment also included data on modelled risk of agricultural transformation, of which low-risk areas were selected where possible. The current PA systems in the three countries cover 3830 km2, which represents 21.2% of the region, and meet the representation targets for 46% of the conservation features. The proposed conservation landscape adds 4291 km2 of new core areas and 480 km2 of linkages and, if appropriate, could provide potential revenues of US$18.8 million from game ranching, based on modelled large ungulate density, life history and game auction data. We also discuss the benefits of including data on widely distributed, better known conservation features together with less-well studied, range-restricted species and the advantages of using agricultural transformation risk data in conservation assessments.  相似文献   

19.
The research project ARINUS is the study of the effects of restabilization measures (fertilization with rapidly soluble Mg salts) and atmospheric deposition on the element cycling of typical spruce ecosystems in the Black Forest. The objective is to quantify the natural and anthropogenic components of element cycling at these sites which will provide a better estimation of the effects induced by external perturbations, e.g. increasing atmospheric deposition, fertilization, or biomass export. Interrelations between the terrestrial and aquatic system are assessed using an integrated approach which combines flux measurements in representative plots with balances of small experimental watersheds. This paper describes the approach, treatments, field installations, methods, and site conditions of one of the two research areas. Furthermore, preliminary results from element inventories and watershed input-output budgets are discussed. According to the distribution of Mg in the ecosystem, the experimental area Schluchsee is a typical Mg deficient site. Magnesium losses result from leaching both from the canopy and the superficially rooted top soil. Since atmospheric deposition is low, ration export is primarily controlled by the ecosystem's internal production of acids. This excess mineralization in the soil is attributed to a change from the original mixed forest to the present spruce monoculture.  相似文献   

20.
The research project ARINUS is the study of the effects of restabilization measures (fertilization with rapidly soluble Mg salts) and atmospheric deposition on the element cycling of typical spruce ecosystems in the Black Forest. The objective is to quantify the natural and anthropogenic components of element cycling at these sites which will provide a better estimation of the effects induced by external perturbations,e.g. increasing atmospheric deposition, fertilization, or biomass export. Interrelations between the terrestrial and aquatic system are assessed using an integrated approach which combines flux measurements in representative plots with balances of small experimental watersheds. This paper describes the approach, treatments, field installations, methods, and site conditions of one of the two research areas. Furthermore, preliminary results from element inventories and watershed input-output budgets are discussed. According to the distribution of Mg in the ecosystem, the experimental area Schluchsee is a typical Mg deficient site. Magnesium losses result from leaching both from the canopy and the superficially rooted top soil. Since atmospheric deposition is low, cation export is primarily controlled by the ecosystem's internal production of acids. This excess mineralization in the soil is attributed to a change from the original mixed forest to the present spruce monoculture.  相似文献   

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