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1.
Analysing how fish populations and their ecological communities respond to perturbations such as fishing and environmental variation is crucial to fisheries science. Researchers often predict fish population dynamics using species‐level life‐history parameters that are treated as fixed over time, while ignoring the impact of intraspecific variation on ecosystem dynamics. However, there is increasing recognition of the need to include processes operating at ecosystem levels (changes in drivers of productivity) while also accounting for variation over space, time and among individuals. To address similar challenges, community ecologists studying plants, insects and other taxa increasingly measure phenotypic characteristics of individual animals that affect fitness or ecological function (termed “functional traits”). Here, we review the history of trait‐based methods in fish and other taxa, and argue that fisheries science could see benefits by integrating trait‐based approaches within existing fisheries analyses. We argue that measuring and modelling functional traits can improve estimates of population and community dynamics, and rapidly detect responses to fishing and environmental drivers. We support this claim using three concrete examples: how trait‐based approaches could account for time‐varying parameters in population models; improve fisheries management and harvest control rules; and inform size‐based models of marine communities. We then present a step‐by‐step primer for how trait‐based methods could be adapted to complement existing models and analyses in fisheries science. Finally, we call for the creation and expansion of publicly available trait databases to facilitate adapting trait‐based methods in fisheries science, to complement existing public databases of life‐history parameters for marine organisms.  相似文献   

2.
The advent of an ecosystem‐based approach dramatically expanded the scope of fisheries management, creating a critical need for new kinds of data and quantitative approaches that could be integrated into the management system. Ecosystem models are needed to codify the relationships among drivers, pressures and resulting states, and to quantify the trade‐offs between conflicting objectives. Incorporating ecosystem considerations requires moving from the single‐species models used in stock assessments, to more complex models that include species interactions, environmental drivers and human consequences. With this increasing model complexity, model fit can improve, but parameter uncertainty increases. At intermediate levels of complexity, there is a ‘sweet spot’ at which the uncertainty in policy indicators is at a minimum. Finding the sweet spot in models requires compromises: for example, to include additional component species, the models of each species have in some cases been simplified from age‐structured to logistic or bioenergetic models. In this paper, we illuminate the characteristics, capabilities and short‐comings of the various modelling approaches being proposed for ecosystem‐based fisheries management. We identify key ecosystem needs in fisheries management and indicate which types of models can meet these needs. Ecosystem models have been playing strategic roles by providing an ecosystem context for single‐species management decisions. However, conventional stock assessments are being increasingly challenged by changing natural mortality rates and environmentally driven changes in productivity that are observed in many fish stocks. Thus, there is a need for more tactical ecosystem models that can respond dynamically to changing ecological and environmental conditions.  相似文献   

3.
Views expressed on the potential impact of ocean acidification range from wholesale degradation of marine ecosystems through to no discernable impact with minimal consequences. Constraining this range of predictions is necessary for the development of informed policy and management. The direct biological impacts of acidification occur at the molecular and cellular level; however, it is the expression of these effects at the population and ecosystem level that is of societal concern. Here, we consider the potential impact of ocean acidification on fisheries with particular emphasis on approaches to scaling from physiological responses to population‐ and ecosystem‐level processes. In some instances, impacts of ocean acidification may lead to changes in the relative species composition at a given trophic level without affecting the overall productivity, whilst in other instances, ocean acidification may lead to a reduction in productivity at a given tropic level. Because of the scale at which ecological processes operate, modelling studies are required. Here, ocean acidification is situated within ongoing research into the ecological dynamics of perturbed systems, for which many models have already been developed. Whilst few existing models currently explicitly represent physiological processes sensitive to ocean acidification, some examples of how ocean acidification effects may be emulated within existing models are discussed. Answering the question of how acidification may impact fisheries requires the integration of knowledge across disciplines; this contribution aims to facilitate the inclusion of higher trophic level ecology into this ongoing debate and discussion.  相似文献   

4.
  • 1. Maintaining ecological processes that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems requires planning and management of marine resources at an appropriate spatial scale.
  • 2. The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBR) is the world's largest World Heritage Area (approximately 348 000 km2) and second largest marine protected area. It is difficult to inform the planning and management of marine ecosystems at that scale because of the high cost associated with collecting data. To address this and to inform the management of coastal (approximately 15 m below mean sea level) habitats at the scale of the GBR, this study determined the presence and distribution of seagrass by generating a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based habitat suitability model.
  • 3. A Bayesian belief network was used to quantify the relationship (dependencies) between seagrass and eight environmental drivers: relative wave exposure, bathymetry, spatial extent of flood plumes, season, substrate, region, tidal range and sea surface temperature. The analysis showed at the scale of the entire coastal GBR that the main drivers of seagrass presence were tidal range and relative wave exposure. Outputs of the model include probabilistic GIS‐surfaces of seagrass habitat suitability in two seasons and at a planning unit of cell size 2 km×2 km.
  • 4. The habitat suitability maps developed in this study extend along the entire GBR coast, and can inform the management of coastal seagrasses at an ecosystem scale. The predictive modelling approach addresses the problems associated with delineating habitats at the scale appropriate for the management of ecosystems and the cost of collecting field data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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5.
In this study, an integrative weight of evidence (WOE) tetrad methodology was developed and used to assess environmental quality and ecological risk at contaminated sites by fish farm effluents using spatial modelling tools [geographical information systems (GIS) and fuzzy logic and multicriteria analysis (MCA)], taking into account the results of four lines of evidence (LOE): the physico‐chemical characteristics of water and sediment, acute toxicity bioassays, biomarkers and the in situ alteration of benthic communities. The methodology was tested in the Rio San Pedro salt marsh creek in southwestern Spain. The proposed approach allowed for a quantitative spatial characterization of ecological risk and a better discrimination based on various types of physical, chemical and biological data. The methodology illustrates how GIS spatial models may be used in conjunction with other tools such as fuzzy logic and MCA to assist in decision‐making processes based on multiple environmental quality criteria and lines of evidence, with the transparency, objectivity and synoptic ability required to address environmental management problems in general and the management of contaminated marine areas affected by fish farms in particular.  相似文献   

6.
Despite improved knowledge and stricter regulations, numerous fish stocks remain overharvested. Previous research has shown that fisheries management may fail when the models and assessments used to inform management are based on unrealistic assumptions regarding fishers' decision‐making and responses to policies. Improving the understanding of fisher behaviour requires addressing its diversity and complexity through the integration of social science knowledge into modelling. In our paper, we review and synthesize state‐of‐the‐art research on both social science's understanding of fisher behaviour and the representation of fisher decision‐making in scientific models. We then develop and experiment with an agent‐based social–ecological fisheries model that formalizes three different fishing styles. Thereby we reflect on the implications of our incorporation of behavioural diversity and contrast it with the predominant assumption in fishery models: fishing practices being driven by rational profit maximizing. We envision a next generation of fisheries models and management that account for social scientific knowledge on individual and collective human behaviours. Through our agent‐based model, we demonstrate how such an integration is possible and propose a scientific approach for reducing uncertainty based on human behavioural diversity in fisheries. This study serves to lay the foundations for a next generation of social–ecological fishery models that account for human behavioural diversity and social and ecological complexity that are relevant for a realistic assessment and management of fishery sustainability problems.  相似文献   

7.
We investigated the hypothesis that synchronous recruitment is due to a shared susceptibility to environmental processes using stock–recruitment residuals for 52 marine fish stocks within three Northeast Pacific large marine ecosystems: the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, Gulf of Alaska, and California Current. There was moderate coherence in exceptionally strong and weak year‐classes and correlations across stocks. Based on evidence of synchrony from these analyses, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to relate recruitment to environmental covariates for groups of stocks that may be similarly influenced by environmental processes based on their life histories. There were consistent relationships among stocks to the covariates, especially within the Gulf of Alaska and California Current. The best Gulf of Alaska model included Northeast Pacific sea surface height as a predictor of recruitment, and was particularly strong for stocks dependent on cross‐shelf transport during the larval phase for recruitment. In the California Current the best‐fit model included San Francisco coastal sea level height as a predictor, with higher recruitment for many stocks corresponding to anomalously high sea level the year before spawning and low sea level the year of spawning. The best Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands model included several environmental variables as covariates and there was some consistent response across stocks to these variables. Future research may be able to utilize these across‐stock environmental influences, in conjunction with an understanding of ecological processes important across early life history stages, to improve identification of environmental drivers of recruitment.  相似文献   

8.
Assessing trait–environment relationships is crucial for predicting effects of natural and human‐induced environmental change on biota. We compiled a global database of fish assemblages in estuaries, functional traits of fishes and ecosystem features of estuaries. And we quantified the relative importance of ecosystem features as drivers of patterns of fish functional traits among estuaries worldwide (i.e. drivers of the proportions of fish traits). In addition to biogeographical context, two main environmental gradients regulate traits patterns: firstly temperature, and secondly estuary size and hydrological connectivity of the estuary with the marine ecosystem. Overall, estuaries in colder regions, with larger areas and with higher hydrological connectivity with the marine ecosystem, have higher proportions of marine fish (versus freshwater), macrocarnivores and planktivores (versus omnivores, herbivores and detritivores) and larger fish, with greater maximum depth of distribution and longer lifespan. The observed trait patterns and trait–environment relationships are likely generated by multiple causal processes linked to physiological constraints due to temperature and salinity, size‐dependent biotic interactions, as well as habitat availability and connectivity. Biogeographical context and environmental conditions drive species richness and composition, and present results show that they also drive assemblage traits. The observed trait patterns and trait–environment relationships suggest that assemblage composition is determined by the functional role of species within ecosystems. Conservation strategies should be coordinated globally and ensure protection of an array of estuaries that differ in ecosystem features, even if some of those estuaries do not support high species richness.  相似文献   

9.
基于CART算法的长江口鱼种丰富度预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
长江口是西太平洋最大的河口生态系统和典型的生态群落交错区,预测鱼类生物多样性对评价其生态系统有着重要的科学指示意义。结合2012―2013年长江口15个站点的渔业资源和环境调查数据,利用分类与回归树(CART)算法中的回归树算法,构建了长江口鱼种丰富度预测模型。基于1-SE准则,最优决策树的复杂性参数设置为0.067,结果表明,盐度、溶解氧和季节是影响长江口鱼类生物多样性的主要因子。此外,使用2014年的观测数据对回归树模型预测的长江口鱼种丰富度予以验证,均方根误差(RMSE)、平均相对误差(ARE)和平均绝对误差(AAE)值的统计结果显示,回归树模型在春、夏季的预测效能优于秋、冬季,模型总体上呈现出了较好的预测能力,表明利用CART算法对长江口鱼种丰富度进行预测是可行的。  相似文献   

10.
Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area‐specific pressures. To fulfil society's intensifying and diversifying needs while ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader‐scope management of marine resources is necessary. Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models (IEEFMs) of marine systems are needed to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anticipate ecological, economic and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional. To make these models most effective, it is important to determine how model characteristics and methods of communicating results influence the model implementation, the nature of the advice that can be provided and the impact on decisions taken by managers. This article presents a global review and comparative evaluation of 35 IEEFMs applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes although not all the models reviewed achieve that. Modellers must invest more time to make models user friendly and to participate in management fora where models and model results can be explained and discussed. Such involvement is beneficial to all parties, leading to improvement of mo‐dels and more effective implementation of advice, but demands substantial resources which must be built into the governance process. It takes time to develop effective processes for using IEEFMs requiring a long‐term commitment to integrating multidisciplinary modelling advice into management decision‐making.  相似文献   

11.
Recruitment dynamics are challenging to assess or predict because of the many underlying drivers that vary in their relevance over time and space. Stock size, demographic and trait composition, condition and distribution of spawning fish and the spatio‐temporal dynamics of trophic and environmental interactions all influence recruitment processes. Exploring common patterns among stocks and linking them to potential drivers may therefore provide insights into key mechanisms of recruitment dynamics. Here, we analysed stock‐recruitment data of 64 stocks from the north‐east Atlantic Ocean for common trends in variation and synchrony among stocks using correlation, cluster and dynamic factor analyses. We tested common trends in recruitment success for relationships with large‐scale environmental processes as well as stock state indicators, and we explored links between recruitment success and demographic, environmental and ecological variables for a subset of individual stocks. The results revealed few statistically significant correlations between stocks but showed that underlying common trends in recruitment success are linked to environmental indices and management indicators. Statistical analyses confirmed previously suggested relationships of environmental–ecological factors such as the subpolar gyre and Norwegian coastal current with specific stocks, and indicated a large relevance of spawning stock biomass and demographics, as well as predation, whereas other suggested relationships were not supported by the data. Our study shows that despite persistent challenges in determining drivers of recruitment due to poor data quality and unclear mechanisms, combining different data analysis techniques can improve our understanding of recruitment dynamics in fish stocks.  相似文献   

12.
Understanding spatial population structure and biocomplexity is critical for determining a species’ resilience to environmental and anthropogenic perturbations. However, integrated population models (IPMs) used to develop management advice for harvested populations have been slow to incorporate spatial dynamics. Therefore, limited research has been devoted to understanding the reliability of movement parameter estimation in spatial population models, especially for spatially dynamic marine fish populations. We implemented a spatial simulation–estimation framework that emulated a generic marine fish metapopulation to explore the impact of ontogenetic movement and climate‐induced distributional shifts between two populations. The robustness of spatially stratified IPMs was explored across a range of movement parametrizations, including ignoring connectivity or estimating movement with various levels of complexity. Ignoring connectivity was detrimental to accurate estimation of population‐specific biomass, while implementing spatial IPMs with intermediate levels of complexity (e.g. estimating movement in two‐year and two‐age blocks) performed best when no a priori information about underlying movement was available. One‐way distributional shifts mimicking climate‐induced poleward migrations presented the greatest estimation difficulties, but the incorporation of auxiliary information on connectivity (e.g. tag‐recapture data) reduced bias. The continued development of spatially stratified modelling approaches should allow harvested resources to be better utilized without increased risk. Additionally, expanded collection and incorporation of unique spatially explicit data will enhance the robustness of IPMs in the future.  相似文献   

13.
Defining the oceanic habitats of migratory marine species is important for both single species and ecosystem‐based fisheries management, particularly when the distribution of these habitats vary temporally. This can be achieved using species distribution models that include physical environmental predictors. In the present study, species distribution models that describe the seasonal habitats of two pelagic fish (dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus and yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi), are developed using 19 yr of presence‐only data from a recreational angler‐based catch‐and‐release fishing programme. A Poisson point process model within a generalized additive modelling framework was used to determine the species distributions off the east coast of Australia as a function of several oceanographic covariates. This modelling framework uses presence‐only data to determine the intensity of fish (fish km?2), rather than a probability of fish presence. Sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly, SST frontal index and eddy kinetic energy were significant environmental predictors for both dolphinfish and kingfish distributions. Models for both species indicate a greater fish intensity off the east Australian coast during summer and autumn in response to the regional oceanography, namely shelf incursions by the East Australian Current. This study provides a framework for using presence‐only recreational fisheries data to create species distribution models that can contribute to the future dynamic spatial management of pelagic fisheries.  相似文献   

14.

15.
Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO2 emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure.  相似文献   

16.
A close relationship between adult abundance and stock productivity may not exist for many marine fish stocks, resulting in concern that the management goal of maximum sustainable yield is either inefficient or risky. Although reproductive success is tightly coupled with adult abundance and fecundity in many terrestrial animals, in exploited marine fish where and when fish spawn and consequent dispersal dynamics may have a greater impact. Here, we propose an eco‐evolutionary perspective, reproductive resilience, to understand connectivity and productivity in marine fish. Reproductive resilience is the capacity of a population to maintain the reproductive success needed to result in long‐term population stability despite disturbances. A stock's reproductive resilience is driven by the underlying traits in its spawner‐recruit system, selected for over evolutionary timescales, and the ecological context within which it is operating. Spawner‐recruit systems are species specific, have both density‐dependent and fitness feedback loops and are made up of fixed, behavioural and ecologically variable traits. They operate over multiple temporal, spatial and biological scales, with trait diversity affecting reproductive resilience at both the population and individual (i.e. portfolio) scales. Models of spawner‐recruit systems fall within three categories: (i) two‐dimensional models (i.e. spawner and recruit); (ii) process‐based biophysical dispersal models which integrate physical and environmental processes into understanding recruitment; and (iii) complex spatially explicit integrated life cycle models. We review these models and their underlying assumptions about reproductive success vs. our emerging mechanistic understanding. We conclude with practical guidelines for integrating reproductive resilience into assessments of population connectivity and stock productivity.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
Understanding the mechanisms that structure communities have been a major challenge in ecological theory. Functional trait-based approaches are increasingly used for studying the processes underlying community assembly. However, species-poor systems of Andean streams these processes are largely unknown. Tropical Andean streams are highly variable in space-time and characterised by the harsh or stable environment, resulting in a high taxonomic and ecological diversity. In this study, we tested the influence of environmental variables on the fish functional structure. We proposed that in ecosystems with harsh environments, environmental filtering will structure fish assemblages, and in ecosystems with a more stable environment, limiting similarity will prevail, increasing functional diversity. We analysed fish assemblages using functional diversity indices, fourth-corner RLQ analyses and multiple regression models. Environmental variables such as altitude, stream width, sub-Andean vegetation and pH influenced functional diversity. For instance, high values of functional redundancy were registered at high elevation streams, reflecting fish assemblages composed of highly dominant species with similar functional traits such as species of the genus Astroblepus. However, we found differences between Astroblepus species in the number and distance of gill rakers which might indicate resource partitioning and coexistence. On the other hand, our results show both stochastic dynamics and environmental filtering are structuring fish assemblages in low and high elevation Andean streams respectively.  相似文献   

19.
Recreational fisheries are culturally and economically important around the world. Recent research emphasizes that understanding and managing these systems requires a social–ecological perspective. We systematically reviewed quantitative social–ecological models of marine and freshwater recreational fisheries to summarize their conceptualization of social, ecological, and social–ecological dynamics and identify research frontiers. From a candidate set of 626 studies published between 1975 and 2018, 49 met criteria for inclusion in our review. These studies, though diverse in terms of focal species and processes considered, were geographically limited to a few locations and ignored large regions of the globe where recreational fishing is important. There were also important gaps in the social and ecological processes that were included in published models. Reflecting on these patterns in the context of previous conceptual frameworks, we define five key frontiers for future work: 1) exploring the implications of social and behavioural processes like heuristics, social norms, and information sharing for angler decisions and fishery dynamics; 2) modelling governance with more realistic complexity; 3) incorporating ideas from resilience thinking and complex adaptive systems, including slow variables, destabilizing feedbacks, surprises and diversity; 4) considering key ideas in fisheries systems, including spatial and temporal effort dynamics, catch hyperstability, and stocking; and 5) thinking synthetically about the models that we use to describe social–ecological dynamics in recreational fisheries, via explicit comparisons and formal integration with data. Exploration of these frontiers, while remembering the distinction between model complexity and model usefulness, will improve our ability to understand and sustain recreational fisheries.  相似文献   

20.
Small‐scale fisheries often involve weak management regimes with limited top‐down enforcement of rules and minimal support from legal institutions, making them useful model systems for investigating the role of social influence in determining economic and environmental outcomes. In such regimes, interpersonal relationships are expected to have a strong effect on a fisher's catch portfolio, the set of fish species targeted by an individual fisher. Here, we test three competing hypotheses about social influence using belief propagation network models and show that a peer‐to‐peer information‐sharing social network is key to explaining catch portfolios at a small‐scale fishery in Jamaica. We find that experience dictates the direction of influence among fishers in the social network, with older fishers and information brokers having distinct roles in shaping catch patterns for large‐ and small‐sized fish species, respectively. These findings highlight concrete opportunities for harnessing social networks in natural resource management. Our new approach to modelling social influence is applicable to many social–ecological systems with minimal legal and institutional support or those that rely heavily on bottom‐up participatory processes.  相似文献   

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