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1.
Variation in the condition factors of California pelagic fishes and associated environmental factors 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Time series of condition factors for mackerel, Scomber japonicus , jack mackerel, Truchurus symmetricus , and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax , stocks in the Southern California region were compared with time series of oceanographic indices to develop hypotheses concerning physical environmental forcing of the population dynamics and energetics of small pelagic fishes. Mackerel and jack mackerel condition factor time series showed decade-scale variation, whereas those of anchovy showed coherent fluctuations for 1 to 2 years. Mackerel, and to a lesser extent jack mackerel, condition factors were correlated with proxy indices of alongshore advection (sea level), offshore advection (Ekman transport), ambient temperature (shore station temperature), and ambient salinity (shore station salinity). The condition factor of anchovy was much less correlated with environmental variables. Multiple regression analyses which included sea level, upwelling and salinity proxies explained 80% (33%) of the variance in the annual (monthly) condition factor of mackerel. The first-order variation in condition factors of mackerel and jack mackerel suggests that they are responding to very large-scale perturbations of the California Current system which are at least partially described by variations in sea level. The population size of mackerel is apparently also responding to these large-scale perturbations, making it difficult to isolate environmental dependence of condition factors from density dependence. The second-order variation is more regional in nature and unexpectedly it appears to be associated with upwelling in the Baja California region. 相似文献
2.
Juan Carlos Gutirrez-Estrada Eleuterio Yez Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo Claudio Silva Francisco Plaza Cinthya Brquez 《Fisheries Research》2009,100(2):116-125
In this study the performances of computational neural networks (CNNs), multiple linear regressions (MLRs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) to predict Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) landings and to analyse their relationships with environmental factors in the north area off Chile were studied. For this purpose several local and global environmental variables and indexes (sea surface temperature, sea level and Ekman transport index in the Chilean coast and, sea surface temperature in the area Niño 3 + 4 and Niño 1 + 2, and the south oscillation index) were considered as inputs or independent variables. Additionally, several CNNs were calibrated and validated adding the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) landings in the same area as model inputs. The time lags of the variables considered were selected through analysis of the non-linear cross-correlation functions and an alternative form of sensitivity analysis based on the approach of the missing value problem. The analysis of error measures with validation data set showed that the best results were obtained when local and global variables were used separately and combined with anchovy landings. Globally, the best result was given by a CNN with 18 input variables (model CNN 6(II) which only considered global variables and anchovy landings) and 10 neurons in a hidden layer. For this configuration the explained variance was slightly higher to 86% which supposed a standard error of prediction of 7.66%. These results were significantly better than those obtained with MLRs and GAMs. The strong correlation between predicted and observed sardine landings suggests that CNNs captured the trend of the historical data. Also, the generalisation capacity together the sensitivity analysis allowed us to identify the variables with a high weight in the model and partially to interpret the statistical functional relationships between these environmental variables and sardine landings. 相似文献
3.
《Fisheries Research》2007,87(2-3):120-128
In the present paper, two univariate forecasting techniques were tested to evaluate the short-term CPUE capacity forecast for Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis (Pleuronectidae). The first methodology, based on the Box–Jenkins approach (autoregressive integrated moving average models [ARIMA models]), assumes a linear relationship between the time series data. The second methodology, using artificial neural network models (ANNs), enables highly non-linear processes to be modelled. The best results from a seasonal ARIMA model indicated that one non-seasonal autoregressive term combined with a non-seasonal moving average term and a seasonal moving average term was suitable to explain a variance level of 32.6% in the validation phase, providing statistically acceptable but insufficiently satisfactory estimations. The configuration of the best ANN model (three autoregressive terms in the input layer and five neurons in the hidden layer) provided a significant improvement in the independent validation phase (91% of the variation explained), indicating a clear non-linear relationship between variables. Modelling of the abundance indices is a useful tool for understanding the dynamics of populations and may enable short-term quantitative recommendations for fisheries management to be made. 相似文献
4.
以东南太平洋智利竹鱼为对象、以资源量动态模型为基础,使用模拟方法构建了"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业,评估了观测误差和过程误差对智利竹鱼资源评估和管理的影响。模拟的"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业结果显示,1997—2014年太平洋智利竹鱼资源量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,且远低于B_(MSY)的50%;捕捞死亡系数波动剧烈,仅在2012—2014年低于F_(MSY)且相对稳定。渔业资源评估模拟结果显示,观测误差和过程误差使资源量和B_(MSY)被低估,捕捞死亡系数和F_(MSY)被高估,且随机误差越大,资源量、B_(MSY)被低估,而捕捞死亡系数、F_(MSY)被高估的程度越大。渔业管理模拟的结果表明,捕捞控制规则采用恒定捕捞死亡系数时,未来10年基于50%2014年捕捞死亡系数的管理措施为最佳管理措施。由于捕捞死亡系数被高估,最佳管理措施实施后使得年总可捕捞量高于预期,而年资源量低于预期,资源量增长或恢复的速度变慢,资源可能同时处于过度捕捞状态和正遭受过度捕捞。过度捕捞的风险与随机观测误差和过程误差的大小成正比。 相似文献
5.
为了探讨气候变化对智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)渔获量的长期影响, 采集 1900—2016 年北大西洋涛动
(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)、太平洋年代际涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)、厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)等 8 个
低频气候变化参数, 全球海气温度异常指标时间序列数据和 1970—2016 年东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼总渔获量数据,
在对其进行相关性分析的基础上, 运用 BP 神经网络模型构建了东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼渔获量预测模型, 并以效率
系数为评价规则对预测模型进行评价, 进而得到了最优预测模型。最后对最优预测模型进行了因子敏感性分析, 提
取了对东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)影响较大的因子。最优预测模型拟合效果显示, 渔获量拟合值与
观测值有基本一致的变化趋势, 两个序列的线性相关系数为 0.745, 模型拟合效果良好。最优模型因子敏感性分析
表明, 在研究期间, 影响东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼渔获量的气候变化表征因子主要为北大西洋涛动、太平洋年代际涛
动和北太平洋指数。 相似文献
6.
Modeling and forecasting pelagic fish production using univariate and multivariate ARIMA models 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
ABSTRACT: Univariate and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to model and forecast the monthly pelagic production of fish species in the Mediterranean Sea during 1990–2005. Autocorrelation (AC) and partial autocorrelation (PAC) functions were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of seasonal ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future catch per unit of effort (CPUE) values. Univariate and multivariate ARIMA models satisfactorily predicted the total pelagic fish production and the production of anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel. The univariate ARIMA models demonstrated a good performance in terms of explained variability and predicting power. The current findings revealed a strong autoregressive character providing relatively high R 2 and satisfactory forecasts that were close to the recorded CPUE values. The present results also indicated that the multivariate ARIMA outperformed the univariate ARIMA models in terms of fitting accuracy. The opposite was evidenced when testing the forecasting accuracy of the two methods, where the univariate ARIMA models overall performed better than the multivariate models. The observed seasonal pattern in the monthly production series was attributed to the intrinsic nature of the pelagic fishery. As anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel represent main target species in the Mediterranean pelagic fishery, the findings of the present study provided direct support for the potential use of accurate forecasts in decision making and fisheries management in the Mediterranean Sea. 相似文献
7.
Mohamed Salah Mahjoub Seiichi Takeda Toshifumi Hayashi Daisuke Shiode Takafumi Arimoto Tadashi Tokai 《Fisheries Science》2011,77(2):169-181
Codend selectivity for the jack mackerel Trachurus japonicus and the whitefin jack Kaiwarinus equula were evaluated based on data from trouser trawl experiments carried out in the East China Sea, using a test codend of 60 mm diamond mesh and a control codend made of minnow net with a square mesh of 9 mm bar length. Between-haul variations in parameters and the mean selection curves were tested with the catch data in the SELECT approach, and then the model of between-haul variation in the split parameter with the mean selection curve was chosen as the best fit using Akaike’s information criterion model selection. The 50% retention lengths and the selection ranges were 11.4 and 3.36 cm for jack mackerel and 8.83 and 0.93 cm for whitefin jack, respectively. The selection curve for whitefin jack was sharp, whereas that for jack mackerel was relatively wide. As the estimated split parameters indicated, about 80% of the whitefin jack entered the control codend, but 85 and 90% of the jack mackerel entered the control codend in the second and third hauls, respectively. The inequality in the split parameter is discussed from the viewpoint of the animal’s swimming behavior and water movement based on underwater video observations. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACT: Juveniles of carangid fishes including jack mackerel Trachurus japonicus are known to associate with jellyfishes. The function of this association behavior was studied through rearing experiments and underwater visual observations. Association behavior of jack mackerel with moon jellyfish in experimental tanks was more frequent in the presence compared to the absence of predators (chub mackerel Scomber japonicus ). In the experimental tanks, the presence of jellyfish, however, did not mitigate predation by these predators. Although jack mackerel did not feed on the jellyfish itself, they frequently fed on the captured prey ( Artemia nauplii) whilst in the gut cavity of the jellyfish. Underwater observations of giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai off Kyoto and Fukui prefectures revealed that approximately 30% of these jellyfish were accompanied by jack mackerel juveniles with body sizes ranging 10–45 mm standard length (SL). Considering that jack mackerel juveniles found in subtidal rocky reefs ranged 40–120 mm SL, we considered that jack mackerel from 10 to 45 mm SL associate with jellyfish as a hiding place as well as a food collector, until they find a suitable reef habitat when they attain approximately 40 mm SL. 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACT: Recent surveys showed substantial aggregation of larvae of jack mackerel in the southern East China Sea, indicating intensive spawning grounds near Taiwan. A numerical model was applied to investigate transport and survival processes of eggs and larvae of jack mackerel from the spawning area to the nurseries. The results show that: (i) the distributions of larvae simulated by the model agreed well with those obtained by field survey; (ii) the stock of jack mackerel in the Sea of Japan is composed of both groups from north of Taiwan and from the western coast of Kyushu. It takes more than two months for the former to reach the Sea of Japan, while it is within 40 days for the latter; and (iii) large proportions of the eggs and larvae spawned off the north of Taiwan are transported rapidly to the Pacific side of Kyushu by the Kuroshio Current, and the rest slowly to the east or north-east along the continental slope in the East China Sea. In contrast to the larval flux, survivors are more abundant in the northern East China Sea than in the Pacific Ocean, indicating that survival in the northern East China Sea would determine the jack mackerel stock in Japan. 相似文献
10.
竹荚鱼(Trachurusjaponicus)是中国南海北部近海主要渔获物之一,其空间分布具有非均匀性。根据2014—2017年南海北部近海两个周期(2014—2015年为第1周期, 2016—2017年为第2周期)的底拖网调查数据,以单位捕捞努力量(catchperuniteffort,CPUE)表征资源密度,采用柯尔莫可洛夫-斯米洛夫检验(Kolmogorov-Smirnov,K-S test)探索了11种概率分布特征。结果表明,南海北部陆架区竹荚鱼不具明显的概率分布特征,而北部湾海域竹荚鱼资源密度服从对数正态分布型且第二周期较第一周期更为显著。同时,采用基于对数正态理论模型法(对数正态模型与Delta模型)与调查设计法(均值法)对该海域进行资源密度估值比较,发现基于对数正态理论模型更切合竹荚鱼资源密度结构分布特征,而在对数正态理论模型中Delta模型法更适用于该物种资源密度估值。 相似文献
11.
北太平洋公海日本鲭资源分布及其渔场环境特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据2014~2015年两年收集的北太平洋公海围拖网作业的日本鲭(Scomber japonicas,又称鲐鱼)生产月度数据,结合同期卫星遥感反演技术获取的海表温度(SST)、海水叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度、海流等环境数据,运用渔获量重心法,地统计插值等方法,分析了北太平洋公海鲐鱼的资源分布情况与渔获量重心的时空变化及其与主要环境因子之间的关系。研究表明,鲐鱼渔场季节性差异明显,渔场重心集中分布在39°N~43°N、147°E~154°E范围内。两年渔场重心均呈现先向东北方向移动,自9月开始再向西南方向移动的趋势。GAM模型显示,北太平洋鲐鱼渔场的最适海表温度范围是16~18℃,最适叶绿素a浓度范围是0.3~0.8 mg·m~(-3),空间上集中分布在40°N~41°N、148°E~151°E,海流对鲐鱼渔场形成尤为重要。 相似文献
12.
1999—2011年东、黄海鲐资源丰度年间变化分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
根据1999—2011年我国鲐大型灯光围网渔业数据,使用广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)估算了影响CPUE的时间(年、月)、空间(经度、纬度)、捕捞性能和环境效应[海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表面高度、海表面叶绿素浓度],并以年效应作为资源丰度指数,分析了东、黄海鲐资源丰度的年间变化,东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数的年间变化与产卵场海表面温度以及捕捞强度间的关系。GAM结果表明,时间、空间、捕捞和环境变量对CPUE偏差的解释率为11.69%,其中变量年的解释率最大,占总解释率的38%。结果显示,1999—2011年东、黄海鲐鱼资源丰度指数(abundance index,AI)总体上呈下降趋势,2008年以来更是持续下降,丰度指数由2008年的1.22降至2011年的0.82。东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数年间与产卵场呈正相关,关系式为AI=-3.51+0.23SST(P0.05),这表明较高的产卵场SST对鲐资源量增加有利。过高的渔获量以及我国群众围网渔业渔船数量的快速增长是导致近年来鲐鱼资源下降的重要原因。 相似文献
13.
CHIYUKI SASSA KEISUKE YAMAMOTO YOUICHI TSUKAMOTO YOSHINOBU KONISHI MUNEHARU TOKIMURA 《Fisheries Oceanography》2009,18(4):255-267
We examined the distribution and migration of age-0 jack mackerel in the East China Sea (ECS) and Yellow Sea, based on data from seasonal bottom trawl surveys. Sampling was conducted at 79–161 stations during five cruises in spring (April–June), early summer (May–July), late summer (August–October), autumn (October–December), and winter (January–February). During early summer, jack mackerel (mean 92 mm fork length), which were estimated to have hatched in the southern East China Sea (SECS) during winter, began to occur abundantly, especially along the shelf-break region of the central East China Sea (CECS). In late summer, the distribution center of young fish (mean 126 mm) shifted northward into the shelf region of northern East China Sea (NECS), corresponding with the rise of bottom water temperature and high prey abundance. In winter when the bottom water temperature declined in the shelf region, the distribution center of jack mackerel (mean 144 mm) shifted southward, with high densities occurring in the SECS and CECS. In spring, overwintering jack mackerel that had become age-1 (mean 175 mm) were distributed abundantly along the shelf-break region of the ECS. On the other hand, jack mackerel were only sporadically found, generally at low densities, in the Yellow Sea during all seasons. High densities of jack mackerel were largely restricted to areas of >15°C bottom water temperature during all seasons. Our results indicate that the seasonal shifts of the 15°C isotherm of the bottom layer and the food conditions are significant environmental factors determining the migration of jack mackerel within the ECS. 相似文献
14.
Time series analyses (Box–Jenkins models) were used to study the influence of river runoff and wind mixing index on the productivity of the two most abundant species of small pelagic fish exploited in waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River continental shelf (north‐western Mediterranean): anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus). River flow and wind were selected because they are known to enhance fertilization and local planktonic production, thus being crucial for the survival of fish larvae. Time series of the two environmental variables and landings of the two species were analysed to extract the trend and seasonality. All series displayed important seasonal and interannual fluctuations. In the long term, landings of anchovy declined while those of sardine increased. At the seasonal scale, landings of anchovy peaked during spring/summer while those of sardine peaked during spring and autumn. Seasonality in landings of anchovy was stronger than in sardine. Concerning the environmental series, monthly average Ebre runoff showed a progressive decline from 1960 until the late 1980s, and the wind mixing index was highest during 1994–96. Within the annual cycle, the minimum river flow occurs from July to October and the wind mixing peaks in winter (December–April, excluding January). The results of the analyses showed a significant correlation between monthly landings of anchovy and freshwater input of the Ebre River during the spawning season of this species (April–August), with a time lag of 12 months. In contrast, monthly landings of sardine were significantly positively correlated with the wind mixing index during the spawning season of this species (November–March), with a lag of 18 months. The results provide evidence of the influence of riverine inputs and wind mixing on the productivity of small pelagic fish in the north‐western Mediterranean. The time lags obtained in the relationships stress the importance of river runoff and wind mixing for the early stages of anchovy and sardine, respectively, and their impact on recruitment. 相似文献
15.
Manuel Vargas‐Yez Ana Girldez Pedro Torres María Gonzlez Maria del Carmen García‐Martínez Francina Moya 《Fisheries Oceanography》2020,29(5):367-380
Time series of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) landings from 1962 and environmental variables from 1978 in the northern Alboran Sea are analysed. European sardine spawns in the northern Alboran Sea from mid‐autumn to late winter at a temperature range slightly higher than the one observed in the nearby Eastern North Atlantic and the North Western Mediterranean. Individuals hatched during autumn and winter are incorporated to the fishery during the following summer and autumn producing the maximum annual landings. These landings show both a decreasing long‐term trend and a strong inter‐annual variability. Although further research is needed, the warming trend of sea surface temperature and the decrease in upwelling intensity inferred from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses could have some influence on the negative trends of sardine landings. The inter‐annual variability of sardine abundance seems to be related to the wind intensity at a local scale, the second principal component of the chlorophyll concentration and the sardine abundance during the preceding year. If the inter‐annual variability is considered, a linear model including these three variables with a one‐year time lag allows to explain 79% of the sardine landings variance. If the negative linear trend is also considered, the model explains 86% of the variance. These results indicate that the body condition of spawners, linked to the food availability during the preceding year, is the main factor controlling the recruitment success. The possibility of predicting sardine landings 1 year in advance could have important implications for fishery management. 相似文献
16.
Trawling for cephalopods off the Portuguese coast—Fleet dynamics and landings composition 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tereza Fonseca Aida Campos Manuel Afonso-Dias Paulo Fonseca Joo Pereira 《Fisheries Research》2008,92(2-3):180-188
Fleet dynamics was addressed for three cephalopod taxa of commercial interest, the squid Loligo vulgaris, the octopuses Octopus vulgaris and Eledone cirrhosa, and the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis, for 48 trawlers of the fish trawling fleet. Landing profiles (LP) were identified based on the species composition of the landings using hierarchical cluster analysis. Four out of a total of 12 different LP were related to cephalopods and other species associated with them.The effects on the landing proportions of a number of variables, year, season and vessel, are analysed for each of the species studied using generalized linear models (GLM). The factor “vessel”, including an ensemble of technical characteristics as well as the abilities of individual skippers, explained most of the model deviance, strongly reinforcing the existence of a fleet component dedicated to catch cephalopods. However, time also explains much of the variation found in the data.Seasonal alternation between landings of octopodidae and cuttlefish was observed within a small group of old trawlers operating mainly off the south coast, following the abundance cycles of these species. For a larger group of more modern trawlers, operating off the western coast, inter-annual shift between octopus and squid was found, together with a well marked seasonal pattern between the catches of cephalopods and horse mackerel.Spatial patterns of activity were identified using vessel monitoring system (VMS) data available for trawlers in Portugal, demonstrating the existence of cephalopod targeting strategies in Portuguese fish trawling activities. 相似文献
17.
18.
Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance‐biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar 
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下载免费PDF全文 Juan Carlos Gutiérrez‐Estrada Juan Gil‐Herrera Inmaculada Pulido‐Calvo Ivone Alejandra Czerwinski 《Fisheries Oceanography》2017,26(4):455-475
We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented to obtain a simulated monthly time series of blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time series, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance non‐explained by the ARIMA models was correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of global, annual and winter correlation between the proportion of variance not explained by the ARIMA models and environmental variables showed that significant associations were not detected over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests that overexploitation is the main factor responsible for the commercial depletion of blackspot seabream in the Strait of Gibraltar. 相似文献
19.
Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north-east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large-scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from 14 populations were analysed to determine links to various environmental variables and to develop recruitment forecasting models using a Ricker-type environmentally dependent spawner–recruit model. The environmental variables used for this investigation included monthly time series of the following: southern oscillation index, North Pacific pressure index, sea surface temperatures, air temperatures, coastal upwelling indices, Bering Sea wind, Bering Sea ice cover, and Bering Sea bottom temperatures. Exploratory correlation analysis was used for focusing the time period examined for each environmental variable. Candidate models for forecasting herring recruitment were selected by the ordinary and recent cross-validation prediction errors. Results indicated that forecasting models using air and sea surface temperature data lagged to the year of spawning generally produced the best forecasting models. Multiple environmental variables showed marked improvements in prediction over single-environmental-variable models. 相似文献
20.
我国东、黄海鲐鱼灯光围网渔业CPUE标准化研究 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
日本鲐是我国近海重要的中上层鱼类资源之一,评估其资源量需要对单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）进行标准化。影响CPUE标准化的因素很多,包括季节、区域和海洋环境等。本文利用广义线型模型（GLM）和广义加性模型（GAM）,结合时空、捕捞船、表温等因子,对1998-2006年东、黄海大型灯光围网渔业鲐鱼CPUE进行标准化,并评价各因子对CPUE的影响。首先应用GLM模型评价时间、空间、环境以及捕捞渔船参数对CPUE的影响,并确定显著性变量。其次,将显著性变量逐一加入GAM模型,根据Akaike信息法则（AIC）,选择最优的GAM模型。最后,利用最优的GAM模型对CPUE标准化,并定量分析时间、空间、环境以及捕捞渔船参数对鲐鱼CPUE的影响。GLM模型结果表明：8个变量对CPUE有重要影响,依次为年、船队、船队与年的交互效应、月、船队与月份的交换效应、经度、纬度和海表温。根据AIC,包含上述8个显著性变量的GAM模型为最优模型,对CPUE偏差的解释为27.78%。GAM模型结果表明：高CPUE分别出现在夏季海表温为28～31 ℃的东海中部和冬季海表温为12～16 ℃的黄海;1998-2006年,标准化后的CPUE呈逐年下降趋势,与持续增长的捕捞努力量有关。 相似文献