共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
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APSIM玉米模型在东北地区的适应性 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
利用东北地区6个典型农业气象试验站的玉米田间试验数据和同期逐日气象数据对APSIM模型(农业生产系统模型)在东北玉米产区的适应性进行了初步研究。先依据各站第一组玉米试验数据对模型相关参数进行调试、确定,再利用另一组试验数据检验模型模拟玉米生育期、叶面积指数、地上部总生物量和产量的可靠性。结果表明,APSIM模型模拟的播种至出苗、开花和成熟各阶段天数与实测天数有较好的一致性,其误差分别为0~2.0、0.7~2.0和0.7~2.3 d;哈尔滨地区模拟的叶面积指数和地上部总生物量相对均方根差分别为33%和11%,模拟效果较好;黑龙江哈尔滨、海伦、泰来,吉林桦甸、通化和辽宁本溪的模拟产量与实际产量的NRMSE分别为18%、13%、4%、4%、5%和2%。说明APSIM模型对东北地区玉米生育期、叶面积指数动态变化过程、地上部总生物量动态变化过程和最终产量具有较好的模拟结果,验证后的APSIM模型在东北地区具有较好的适应性。以上结果为今后在东北地区深入开展玉米生产潜力以及解析产量形成的限制因素等研究提供了技术平台与支撑。 相似文献
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作物模拟技术的研究现状及其发展对策探讨 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
作物模拟技术是当今农业科学中一个新的研究领域。笔者在简要总结国内外作物模拟技术总体研究概况的基础上,阐述了作物模拟研究及模型应用尚存在的一些主要问题,并对其进一步发展的对策作了相应的探讨。 相似文献
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基于生态系统过程耦合的农业管理信息系统的分析与设计 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
对农业管理信息系统与生态过程模拟模型耦合进行了有益的探索,提出构建与生态过程耦合、基于空间信息的农业管理信息系统的设想,为农业管理和生态过程模拟模型在空间区域上的应用提出了一种有效、直观的解决方案。通过系统分析、系统设计及其功能实现技术的研究,采用SuperMap作为开发平台,利用二次开发语言开发了与生态过程耦合的农业管理信息系统(TES_AGRDSS)。该系统充分利用了地理信息系统（GIS）的强大功能,将各种信息进行综合、抽取,实现了单个模型内部的属性数据和空间数据的双向连接,以及不同模拟模型之间数据的双向连接与耦合,使得生态模拟模型在区域上的应用、生态过程模型与农业管理模型的耦合成为可能,为土地利用的管理与决策提供了强有力的帮助。 相似文献
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针对传统农业信息系统在解决分布式网络环境下的复杂决策问题的不足,利用多Agent技术智能性、交互性、协作性的优点,应用基于UML的面向Agent的系统分析方法,提出了基于Agent技术的作物生产管理协同决策系统的设计思想和实现方法,用于实现分布式环境下的作物信息共享、软件共享、协同工作和群决策支持;本文以玉米为实验对象,结合玉米生长模拟模型和玉米知识模型,实现预测功能和决策功能的有机耦合与集成。通过开发实践分析,多Agent作物协同决策模型及系统为解决农业系统复杂问题的决策提供了新的技术手段和方法,提高了作物生长预测和栽培决策的精确性。 相似文献
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利用RZWQM-CERES模拟华北平原农田土壤水分动态及其对作物产量的影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
农业系统模型是农业生产多元目标优化管理的重要工具,但由于系统模型过程复杂,参数众多,校正和验证工作一直是模型研究的重点和难点.本文利用RZWQM(Root Zone Water Quality Model)与CERES(Crop Envi-ronment Resource Synthesis)的结合模型RZWQM-CERES模拟土壤水分及作物产量进行了参数优化和验证,结果表明,RZWQM-CERES在禹城站和栾城站模拟不同灌溉处理土壤贮水量与测定值呈相似的变化趋势,均方根差(RMSE)分别为2.38～2.70 cm及3.49～3.73 cm;作物产量模拟结果与实测值对土壤水分的响应趋势一致(R2=0.83***,n=22),其中在禹城站模拟小麦和玉米产量的RMSE分别为550 kg hm-2和580 kg hm-2,栾城站模拟小麦产量的RMSE为670 kghm-2.以上结果表明RZWQM-CERES可作为华北平原模拟和分析土壤水分对作物产量影响的有效工具.本文初步建立了一套适合华北平原作物生产的模型参数,为利用RZWQM-CERES建立农田水分优化调控策略奠定了基础,并探讨了模型评价过程中应注意的问题. 相似文献
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利用RZWQM-ERES模拟华北平原农田土壤水分动态及其对作物产量的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
农业系统模型是农业生产多元目标优化管理的重要工具,但由于系统模型过程复杂,参数众多,校正和验证工作一直是模型研究的重点和难点。本文对RZWQM (Root Zone Water Quality Model)与CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)的结合模型RZWQM-CERES模拟土壤水分及作物产量进行了参数优化和验证,结果表明,RZWQM-CERES在禹城站和栾城站模拟不同灌溉处理土壤贮水量与测定值呈相似的变化趋势,均方根差(RMSE)分别为2.38~2.70 cm及3.49~3.73 cm;作物产量模拟结果与实测值对土壤水分的响应趋势一致(R2 = 0.83***,n = 22),其中在禹城站模拟小麦和玉米产量的RMSE分别为550 kg hm-2和580 kg hm-2,栾城站模拟小麦产量的RMSE为670 kg hm-2。以上结果表明RZWQM-CERES可作为华北平原模拟和分析土壤水分对作物产量影响的有效工具。本文初步建立了一套适合华北平原作物生产的模型参数,为利用RZWQM-CERES建立农田水分优化调控策略奠定了基础,并探讨了模型评价过程中应注意的问题。 相似文献
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农业系统模型是农业生产多元目标优化管理的重要工具,但由于系统模型过程复杂,参数众多,校正和验证工作一直是模型研究的重点和难点。本文对RZWQM (Root Zone Water Quality Model)与CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)的结合模型RZWQM-CERES模拟土壤水分及作物产量进行了参数优化和验证,结果表明,RZWQM-CERES在禹城站和栾城站模拟不同灌溉处理土壤贮水量与测定值呈相似的变化趋势,均方根差(RMSE)分别为2.38~2.70 cm及3.49~3.73 cm;作物产量模拟结果与实测值对土壤水分的响应趋势一致(R2 = 0.83***,n = 22),其中在禹城站模拟小麦和玉米产量的RMSE分别为550 kg hm-2和580 kg hm-2,栾城站模拟小麦产量的RMSE为670 kg hm-2。以上结果表明RZWQM-CERES可作为华北平原模拟和分析土壤水分对作物产量影响的有效工具。本文初步建立了一套适合华北平原作物生产的模型参数,为利用RZWQM-CERES建立农田水分优化调控策略奠定了基础,并探讨了模型评价过程中应注意的问题。 相似文献
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DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
为了掌握农业转移支持决策系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT)模型在国内农业与气候变化领域的研究进展,更好地让模型在今后气候变化对农业生产影响评估和适应研究中应用,本文以近年来国内的研究和实践为基础,通过梳理模型应用的相关研究案例、方法和成果,从DSSAT 模型本地化适用性验证、数据库构建、参数订正和优化方案、气候变化影响评估及适应的应用等方面全面总结了模型的应用进展。结果表明：DSSAT模型在我国应用比较广泛,包括不同地区和不同作物之间;利用DSSAT模型研究气候变化对农业生产的影响的研究较多,研究结果比较丰富。但模型在应用中存在研究方法和结果比较分散、应用的作物种类有限、数据需求量大而实验数据有限等问题,这些都需要在今后的研究中不断完善解决。 相似文献
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An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation 总被引：46，自引：0，他引：46
B. A. Keating P. S. Carberry G. L. Hammer M. E. Probert M. J. Robertson D. Holzworth N. I. Huth J. N. G. Hargreaves H. Meinke Z. Hochman G. McLean K. Verburg V. Snow J. P. Dimes M. Silburn E. Wang S. Brown K. L. Bristow S. Asseng S. Chapman R. L. McCown D. M. Freebairn C. J. Smith 《European Journal of Agronomy》2003,18(3-4):267-288
The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. 相似文献
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在气候变化背景下,农业部门作为弱质产业,应对气象灾害的难度加大,探索国家对农业的科学支持政策,显得尤为重要。中印同为发展中国家,农业均深受气象灾害的危害。本研究通过分析总结印度农业保险发展的经验和教训,为中国农业保险发展提供借鉴。印度关注产量的农业保险发展阶段,通过立法成立国有的专业化农业保险公司和各类保险服务提供按保险费财政补贴,有利于农业保险供给主体的经营风险和提高经营效率,但覆盖面有限;印度气象指数保险发展阶段,气象指数透明、客观的特点和适宜的分销网络为气象指数保险推广提供了条件,但这种指数和农民损失的不完全相关性将导致农民在遭受惨重损失之时而索赔无望;区域产量和气象指数相结合的农业保险发展阶段,二者优势互补,覆盖面和理赔效率的不断提高。印度农业保险的启示在于：一是农业保险与气象致灾因子密不可分,气象指数保险与产量之间的相关性越明显,其发展潜力越大;二是农业保险属于政府支持农业发展的绿箱政策,引进竞争机制可以提高其效率与覆盖面;三是中国人均国民收入约为印度的3倍多,拥有比印度更为优越的政治制度,中国农业保险进一步优化的空间依然巨大。 相似文献
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N. Brisson C. Gary E. Justes R. Roche B. Mary D. Ripoche D. Zimmer J. Sierra P. Bertuzzi P. Burger F. Bussire Y. M. Cabidoche P. Cellier P. Debaeke J. P. Gaudillre C. Hnault F. Maraux B. Seguin H. Sinoquet 《European Journal of Agronomy》2003,18(3-4):309
is a model that has been developed at INRA (France) since 1996. It simulates crop growth as well as soil water and nitrogen balances driven by daily climatic data. It calculates both agricultural variables (yield, input consumption) and environmental variables (water and nitrogen losses). From a conceptual point of view,
relies essentially on well-known relationships or on simplifications of existing models. One of the key elements of
is its adaptability to various crops. This is achieved by the use of generic parameters relevant for most crops and on options in the model formalisations concerning both physiology and management, that have to be chosen for each crop. All the users of the model form a group that participates in making the model and the software evolve, because
is not a fixed model but rather an interactive modelling platform. This article presents version 5.0 by giving details on the model formalisations concerning shoot ecophysiology, soil functioning in interaction with roots, and relationships between crop management and the soil–crop system. The data required to run the model relate to climate, soil (water and nitrogen initial profiles and permanent soil features) and crop management. The species and varietal parameters are provided by the specialists of each species. The data required to validate the model relate to the agronomic or environmental outputs at the end of the cropping season. Some examples of validation and application are given, demonstrating the generality of the
model and its ability to adapt to a wide range of agro-environmental issues. Finally, the conceptual limits of the model are discussed. 相似文献
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GIS在现代化农业中的应用研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从地理信息系统(GIS)的概念出发,对国内外GIS技术在现代农业中的研究与应用情况,分别从农业用地评价、农业气候与生产区划、水资源管理与规划保护、农作物防虫治病、精确农业和数字农业、施肥管理以及其他方面进行了介绍。就GIS技术在我国今后农业现代化进程中的研究和应用重点作了展望。 相似文献
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A.M. Whitbread M.J. Robertson P.S. Carberry J.P. Dimes 《European Journal of Agronomy》2010,32(1):51-58
Over the past 20 years, farming systems modelling has become an accessible tool for developing intervention strategies targeted at smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Applying the Agricultural Productions Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to credibly simulate key soil and crop processes in highly constrained, low yielding maize/legume systems has led to four distinct modes of use: (i) to add value to field experimentation and demonstration; (ii) in direct engagement with farmers; (iii) to explore key system constraints and opportunities with researchers and extension agencies; and (iv) in the generation of information for policy makers, bankers and insurance institutions. Examples of application in each of these modes are presented. Despite being demonstrated as an excellent tool for developing intervention strategies and extension material, the use of simulation is limited by a lack of competent local users. Better co-operation within the simulation community, sharing of climate, soil and crop parameterisation and validation datasets, and focussing of efforts on using models to benefit smallholder farmers are suggested as ways of increasing the use and relevance of simulation. Substantial investment in the training of agriculturalists and the further science development of systems simulation is required to tackle the enormous challenges facing agricultural development in the region. 相似文献
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Converting pasture to cropping is common in many of the world’s agricultural systems. This conversion results in substantial net mineralisation of soil organic matter that builds up during a phase of pasture. A few studies have shown that this mineralisation leads to increased nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions compared to long-term pasture or long-term cropping. Understanding of interactions leading to these significant emissions is still scarce but is needed to identify mitigation options for this situation. In this study, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) was used to investigate the optimal timing of pasture termination (relative to crop planting) and management of nitrogen (N) in crops after pasture termination to maximise crop yield and limit N2O emissions. Beforehand, APSIM’s performance in simulating yields and N2O emissions was tested against data from field experiments conducted in the temperate high-rainfall zone of southern Australia where N2O emissions were monitored with automatic gas collection chambers during the first year of cropping wheat after terminating long-term pasture on two adjacent sites in two consecutive years. Field experiments and simulation scenarios showed very high N2O emissions (up to 48 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1) in the first year of wheat after pasture termination, even without N fertiliser application. Measured cumulative N2O emissions, crop yields and soil mineral N and water content dynamics were simulated well with APSIM. Including a routine into APSIM to account for N2O transport through the soil profile improved the simulation of daily N2O emissions considerably, leading to up to 67% of the measured variability in daily N2O emissions being explained by the model. We predicted that a short fallow between termination of pasture and sowing wheat, instead of a long fallow which is the common practice, reduces N2O emissions by more than half in the first year of cropping without a noteworthy impact on crop yield. Reducing N fertiliser applications in the first few years after pasture termination by taking available soil mineral N into account, and applying the fertiliser six to twelve weeks after sowing instead of at sowing was predicted to further reduce N2O emissions. Since the model was calibrated against experimental data during the first year after pasture termination only, experiments determining N2O emissions in the first two or three years after terminating pasture are needed to confirm our predictions. 相似文献
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气候变化对中国农业生产影响的模拟评价进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
气候变化对农业生产影响评价研究已成为众多学者和政府部门关注的热点问题。近几十年来,国内外学者从不同角度用不同方法开展了大量的气候变化对农业生产影响的评估研究。该文重点论述了利用模型模拟方法评价气候变化对中国农业生产、作物生长发育的影响,以及适应对策的最近研究进展,并简要地讨论了该领域研究存在的问题和今后有待进一步深入的研究内容。 相似文献
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中国农业清洁生产的发展现状及对策分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
农业清洁生产是农业发展的一种新模式,其目的是通过生产和使用清洁能源和原料,改善管理和监控体系,减少农产品生产过程中的各种污染,以满足农业生产的需要。介绍了农业清洁生产的概念及背景意义、农业清洁生产的目标,以美国、欧盟国家和日本为例介绍了国外农业清洁生产的发展现状,从种植业和畜牧业两方面阐述了中国农业清洁生产的发展现状,提出中国农业清洁生产存在的问题：（1）法律法规不完善,政策制定缺乏充分认知和参与;（2）政策扶持力度不够,资金投入不足;（3）清洁生产技术规范不统一、推广机制不完善。最后提出中国农业清洁生产的对策：（1）加大对农业清洁生产的宣传,树立社会公众的清洁生产意识;（2）加强对农业自然资源的合理利用和保护;（3）大力促进农业企业的清洁生产,从更深层解决污染防治问题;（4）加强畜牧业清洁生产工作,调整产业结构;（5）增强农产品安全意识,加大对高品质农产品生产的扶持力度。 相似文献