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湖北省农作物播种面积灰色预测 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
首先介绍了灰色系统理论及灰色预测建模原理,以湖北省连续9年的农作物播种面积数据为基础,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对湖北省未来8年的农作物播种面积进行了预测,并对预测结果进行检验,预测结果精度较高,可以用来对湖北省未来几年的农作物播种面积进行预测。结果表明,湖北省农作物播种面积呈现逐步下降趋势,土地利用规划部门应实行严格的耕地保护制度,切实保障农民的利益,提高农民耕种的积极性。 相似文献
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基于灰色预测法的芜湖市耕地变化研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
应用灰色系统预测理论，建立芜湖市耕地预测模型GM（1，1），利用1996-2003年耕地面积建立时间数列，对其求解、检验、预测，可得到今后数年的芜湖市耕地面积数量，对合理利用耕地资源、实现耕地的可持续发展有重要意义。最后并对灰色系统模型应用于耕地面积预测作了可行性分析，研究表明：①灰色模型适合于任何一个无规律到有规律的系统。②耕地数据在主导因素——政府政策没有太大的变化的情况下，它本身就是一个理想的灰色数列。③应用灰色模型作耕地面积预测为政府做耕地长期规划提供了一个较精确的预算方案。 相似文献
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基于多目标决策灰色关联投影法的水土保持生态修复生态效益动态评价 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
科学评价水土保持生态修复效益对进一步完善生态修复模式具有重要意义.水土保持生态修复生态效益评价的对象实际上是区域生态环境系统,涉及自然、生态等多方面具有信息不确知性和不完全性的因素.实质上是一个灰色系统.基于灰色系统理论和矢量投影原理,建立了水土保持生态修复生态效益评价灰色关联投影模型.该模型将评价样本及各级标准视为矢量.分别向同一矢量(理想样本)进行投影,根据投影值的大小,确定样本所属的生态环境质量级别及样本间的优劣排序.利用地处沂蒙山区的国家水土保持生态修复试点工程山东省平邑县项目区的2002-2005年监测数据,通过建立生态效益评价指标体系,采用多目标决策灰色关联投影法,对水土保持生态修复的生态效益进行评价,结果与预期相一致.即研究区2005年牛态效益的投影值为0.661 9,2002年的投影值0.5931.研究表明:利用灰色关联投影模型进行水土保持生态修复效益动态评价是科学的、有效的,具有应用和推广价值. 相似文献
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城市用水灰色动态预测模型的研究与应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
科学地预测城市用水量对拟定城市发展规模具有十分重要的意义。城市用水量受很多因素的影响,是一个充满灰色现象的“灰系统”。利用灰色系统理论建立动态GM（1,1）模型预测城市用水量。实例证明,模型能较好地拟合实测数据并具有较高的预测精度。 相似文献
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通过对土壤侵蚀预测及其模型的评述,提出了土壤侵蚀预测建模中存在的问题及对策。从目前已经建立的坡面、小流域和区域不同空间尺度上的土壤侵蚀预测模型可知,各空间尺度上指标的选择和模型的建立,均是独立进行的,相互之间缺乏有机的联系,不同空间尺度模型无法进行有效的信息交换。随着水土流失的治理已由点、小流域治理,进入了大规模连片集中治理的阶段,土壤侵蚀预测建模研究的重点,应转向不同空间尺度土壤侵蚀预测模型之间的关系与转换上来。通过建立不同空间尺度间土壤侵蚀预测转换模型,利用小尺度上实用的土壤侵蚀预测模型和数据,对区域水土流失进行定量预测与评价,具有重要的理论与实践意义。 相似文献
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土地利用规划修编中粮食产量预测方法比较 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为探索提高土地利用总体规划修编中粮食产量预测精度的方法,该文应用1988-2005年晋城市粮食产量相关数据的分析,对线性回归模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和灰色多元线性回归组合模型3种粮食产量预测方法进行了研究.首先,运用灰色关联分析对影响粮食产最的影响因素作出关联因子排序;其次,在灰色关联分析的基础上选取主要影响因子;再次,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型得到主要影响因素的预测值,同时,利用原始数据建立多元线性回归模型;最后,将灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测结果作为多元线性回归模型的输入值,得到灰色多元线性回归组合模型.通过比较这3种粮食产量预测方法的预测结果,得出灰色多元线性回归组合模型最适宜于晋城市粮食产量的预测.该研究可提高土地利用总体规划编制的科学性. 相似文献
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基于小波分析理论组合模型的农业需水量预测 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
为了提高农业需水量（非平稳时间序列）的预测精度,该文运用小波分析理论,将农业需水量这一时间序列用小波分解到不同尺度上以减少原始序列的随机性,然后用灰色预测法和时间序列预测法对重构后的时间序列进行预测。将小波分析理论、灰色预测理论和时间序列预测法组合进行需水量的预测,为原始非平稳时间序列的预测应用拓展了空间。以鄂尔多斯市的农业需水量预测为例对该方法作了验证,2009年数据检验结果表明该组合预测模型精度较高,相对误差小于3%,为农业需水量的预测提供了一种新方法,对鄂尔多斯市的水资源合理地利用、规划和管理以及促进区域社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的意义。 相似文献
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【目的】以富士（Fuji）、 秦冠（Qinguan）嫁接在平邑甜茶（Malus hupehensis Rehd.）上的当年生盆栽苗为试验材料,采用砂培方法,研究了缺氮胁迫和干旱对富士和秦冠生长情况、 光合参数、 植株各部位氮磷钾含量及氮素利用效率的影响,分析比较了低氮干旱条件下富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的差异,以期为果树生产高效肥水利用提供理论指导。【方法】试验共设四个处理: 正常氮正常水（ZZ）、 低氮正常水（DZ）、 正常氮干旱（ZG）、 低氮干旱（DG）。氮素和水分均设置两个水平,分别为正常氮（6 mmol/L NO-3-N）、 低氮（0.3 mmol/LNO-3-N）、 正常供水（保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的80%~85%）、 干旱处理（保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的60%~65%）。【结果】富士和秦冠的生物量（茎和叶）、 株高茎粗等生长指标以及光合速率、 气孔导度、 蒸腾速率均为正常氮正常水（ZZ）＞低氮正常水（DZ）＞正常氮干旱（ZG）＞低氮干旱（DG）,并且相对应处理下秦冠的以上指标均高于富士;正常供水下,缺氮处理使富士、 秦冠的根冠比比正常氮处理均有所增加,富士提高了2.05%,秦冠提高了22.40%。富士和秦冠的氮、 磷、 钾含量均表现出正常氮正常水（ZZ）＞低氮正常水（DZ）＞正常氮干旱（ZG）＞低氮干旱（DG）; 氮、 钾元素含量在植株各部位的分布顺序依次是叶＞根＞茎,磷元素则是根＞叶＞茎;光合氮素利用效率（PNUE）和氮素利用效率表现为秦冠处理之间差异极显著,富士处理之间差异不显著;秦冠的PNUE和NUE明显高于富士,在低氮正常水（DZ）处理下,秦冠氮肥利用率比富士高42.07%,在低氮干旱（DG）处理下高64.14%;低氮胁迫下富士和秦冠的NUE显著提高,并且秦冠提高的幅度高于富士。【结论】施用氮肥能够显著提高富士与秦冠的干物质量,同等水肥条件下,秦冠生长优于富士;水分亏缺会减少叶片对氮的吸收,干旱条件下适度增施氮肥,可提高果树的抗旱能力;低氮干旱胁迫下秦冠的生长指标、 光合指标及氮素利用效率指标均优于富士,表现出较强的抗低氮干旱胁迫的能力。 相似文献
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Kyle Devey Michael Mucalo Gordon Rajendram Joseph Lane 《Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis》2015,46(4):72-80
Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a new technique for the analysis of plant material. This study investigates the application of LIBS to pasture-based plant samples. The LIBS measurements were obtained from pelletized pasture samples (100 samples) that had been also analyzed by inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) following microwave digestion for calibration and comparison purposes. Comparisons for elements sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), boron (B), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S) showed that LIBS could be used for almost all the standard profile total elements with concentrations down to low mg/kg levels (observed error of Na: 0.024 percent, K: 0.18 percent, Mg: 0.016 percent, Ca: 0.073 percent, P: 0.017 percent, Mn: 31 mg/kg, Fe: 150 mg/kg, Zn: 6.6 mg/kg, and B: 1.1 mg/kg). Elemental analysis at less than mg/kg levels was not possible using LIBS. The elements S and Cu were particularly difficult to analyze with reliability using LIBS at the concentration levels found in the plant samples. Replacing microwave digestion and subsequent ICP analysis with a direct analysis of dried plant samples using LIBS has the potential to improve the productivity and reduce the cost of testing. 相似文献
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《中国生态农业学报》2014,(8)
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology, 相似文献
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Aleš Lebeda Ivana Doležalová Eva Křístková Barbora Mieslerová 《Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution》2001,48(2):153-164
Staff members of the Department of Botany of Palacký University in Olomouc and Gene Bank Department – Workplace Olomouc, Research Institute of Crop Production in Prague, Czech Republic, conducted an expedition in seven European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland) in August/September 1999 to collect wild Lactuca spp. germplasm and study its geographic distribution, ecology and biodiversity. During the mission, more than 600 locations were visited resulting in the collection of 602 seed samples (accessions) of wild Lactuca species and 13 seed samples of related genera (Chondrilla and Mycelis). Lactuca serriola f. serriola, L. serriola f. integrifolia, L. saligna and L. viminea subsp. chondrilliflora were prevalent in southern Europe (Italy, France), however, only L. serriola was common in central and western Europe (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland). The greatest diversity of Lactuca species was found in France, where also the most seed samples (165) were collected. The most characteristic habitats with a high density of Lactuca spp. populations were observed along roads and highways, grassy ditches, ruderal communities, and dust-heaps. Natural infections by powdery mildew (Erysiphe cichoracearum) and downy mildew (Bremia lactucae) on some wild Lactuca spp. were observed. Recent observations concerning the geographic distribution, population structure, habitats, and natural occurrence of diseases of Lactuca spp. are discussed. This assemblage of genetic resources of Lactuca spp. can serve as the basis of future studies of species diversification, spatial population structure, plant microevolution, domestication processes, and genetic variability of host-parasite interactions. 相似文献
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M.A. Callaham Jr. J.M. BlairT.C. Todd D.J. KitchenM.R. Whiles 《Soil biology & biochemistry》2003,35(8):1079-1093
The responses of tallgrass prairie plant communities and ecosystem processes to fire and grazing are well characterized. However, responses of invertebrate consumer groups, and particularly soil-dwelling organisms, to these disturbances are not well known. At Konza Prairie Biological Station, we sampled soil macroinvertebrates in 1994 and 1999 as part of a long-term experiment designed to examine the effects and interactions of annual fire, mowing, and fertilization (N and P) on prairie soil communities and processes. For nearly all taxa, in both years, responses were characterized by significant treatment interactions, but some general patterns were evident. Introduced European earthworms (Aporrectodea spp. and Octolasion spp.) were most abundant in plots where fire was excluded, and the proportion of the total earthworm community consisting of introduced earthworms was greater in unburned, unmowed, and fertilized plots. Nymphs of two Cicada genera were collected (Cicadetta spp. and Tibicen spp.). Cicadetta nymphs were more abundant in burned plots, but mowing reduced their abundance. Tibicen nymphs were collected almost exclusively from unburned plots. Treatment effects on herbivorous beetle larvae (Scarabaeidae, Elateridae, and Curculionidae) were variable, but nutrient additions (N or P) usually resulted in greater densities, whereas mowing usually resulted in lower densities. Our results suggest that departures from historical disturbance regimes (i.e. frequent fire and grazing) may render soils more susceptible to increased numbers of European earthworms, and that interactions between fire, aboveground biomass removal, and vegetation responses affect the structure and composition of invertebrate communities in tallgrass prairie soils. 相似文献
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Thomas Larsen Jesper Luxhøi Jakob Magid Lars Stoumann Jensen Paul Henning Krogh 《Biology and Fertility of Soils》2007,44(1):59-68
We have studied the effect of anaerobically digested (ADMSW) and composted municipal solid waste (CMSW) on mineralization
and foodweb dynamics to verify the hypothesis that ADMSW would immobilize N right after addition to soil in contrast to addition
with CMSW. Another hypothesis was that the mesofauna (enchytraeids and microarthropods) would stimulate N release from the
decomposer community. We measured excretion of -N and urea-N from the mesofauna and hypothesized that enchytraeids would release urea. ADMSW and CMSW were amended to pots
with sandy loam and barley. The pots were divided into treatments with or without mesofauna. Mesofauna, plant N and biomass,
soil N and ergosterol (fungal biomass) were measured over a 113-day period of four equidistant samplings. Soil respiration,
N mineralization and N release by the mesofauna were modelled from concurrent studies. ADMSW- and CMSW-treated soils initially
(<20 days) immobilized N. The amendments did not increase plant growth substantially, and this was probably due to N-limitation
in the early stages of plant growth. Enchytraeid abundance was about three times higher in ADMSW- than CMSW-treated soils,
indicating that ADMSW contained more labile compounds, bacteria, and microfauna. The mesofauna did not affect N-content, but
the cumulated -N excreted by the mesofauna was estimated to be substantial and about one-fifth of total plant N in ADMSW. An explanation
for this discrepancy might be that in the absence of the mesofauna, other members of the detrivore and microbivore community
performed the mesofauna’s function. Neither enchytraeids nor microarthropods excreted urea. 相似文献
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《中国生态农业学报》2014,(7)
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology, 相似文献
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《中国生态农业学报》2014,(6)
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology, 相似文献
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Grete Skrede Berit Karoline Martinsen Anne-Berit Wold Stein-Erik Birkeland Kjersti Aaby 《Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B - Plant Soil Science》2013,63(3):193-208
Abstract A 3-year study was carried out to investigate quality parameters in 14 tree fruit and berry species grown in southern Norway. The species were blueberry, apple, aronia, sour cherry, sweet cherry, red raspberry, strawberry, blackcurrant, gooseberry, red currant and elderberry, harvested along with wild bilberry, cloudberry and lingonberry. Significant differences between species were identified for all quality parameters. The coefficient of variation between species was lowest for pH (12.5%), dry matter (18.9%) and soluble solids (25.3%), followed by titratable acids (59.3%), total phenolics (83.8%), antioxidant capacity FRAP (85.7%) and antiradical power by the DPPH-assay (97.8%), total monomeric anthocyanins (132%) and ascorbic acid (137%). Average coefficient of variation within species were lower and ranged from 4 (pH) to 62% (ascorbic acid). Only the FRAP values were significantly affected by harvesting year with lower levels in 2004 than in 2005 and 2006. There were significant interactions between species and harvesting year for dry matter, soluble solids, pH, ascorbic acid and FRAP. The results indicate generic ranges in composition within species independent upon growing location and climate, and the composition of the tree fruits and berries is not likely to deviate from these ranges. It is concluded that desirable composition of tree fruits and berries and their products should primarily be achieved by selection among species rather than searching fors broadened variation within individual species. 相似文献
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《Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis》2012,43(7):865-877
Potassium (K) fixation and release in soil are important factors in the long-term sustainability of a cropping system. Changes in K concentration and characteristics of K fixation and release in rhizosphere and nonrhizosphere soils in the rapeseed (Brassica napus L.)–rice (Oryza sativa L.) rotation were investigated using a rhizobox system. The concentrations of different forms of K in both rhizosphere and nonrhizosphere soils decreased with plants compared to without plants, regardless of K fertilizer application. Potassium uptake by crops mainly came from the rhizosphere soil. In the treatment without K fertilizer (–K), the main form of K supplied by the soil to the crops was 1.0 mol L?1 nitric acid (HNO3) nonextractable K, followed by nonexchangeable K, and then exchangeable K. In the treatment with K fertilizer (+K), the main K forms supplied by the soil to the crops were exchangeable K and nonexchangeable K. The amount and rate of K fixation after one cycle of the rapeseed–rice rotation was greater in rhizosphere soil than in nonrhizosphere soil. The amount and rate of K fixation of soil in the +K treatment were significantly less than in the –K treatment. The cumulative amounts of K released with 1.0 mol L?1 ammonium acetate (NH4OAc) and 1.0 mol L?1 HNO3 extraction increased with the increasing numbers of extractions, but the K-releasing power of soil by successive extraction decreased gradually and finally became almost constant. The release of K was less in rhizosphere soil than in nonrhizosphere soil. The release of K in the +K treatment was similar to that in the –K treatment in rhizosphere soil, but the K release in nonrhizosphere soil was greater with the +K than the –K treatment. Overall, the information obtained in this study will be helpful in formulating more precise K fertilizer recommendations for certain soils. 相似文献