Key message

The position of trees in the canopy impacts xylem structure and its inter-annual variation. After canopy release, the increase in the hydraulic conductivity of growth rings was driven by an increase in radial growth in large trees, and by both an increase in radial growth and changes in xylem structure in saplings.

Context

Forest canopies are frequently subjected to disturbances that allow understory trees to access the upper canopy. The effect of canopy release on xylem anatomy has been assessed in juvenile trees and saplings, while the potential acclimation of larger trees remains poorly documented.

Aims

We estimated the potential hydraulic conductivity of growth rings in large understory trees compared to overstory trees, and evaluated the responses to canopy release in large trees and in saplings.

Methods

We recorded radial growth, wood density, and vessel structure in beech trees according to their position within the canopy and their size. Xylem traits were followed during 6 years after canopy release for large trees, and during 2 years for saplings. Vessel diameter and frequency as well as ring area were used to compute the potential annual ring hydraulic conductivity.

Results

Large understory trees displayed lower radial growth increments and lower potential annual ring hydraulic conductivity than overstory trees. After canopy release, potential annual ring hydraulic conductivity increased in large trees, due exclusively to increased radial growth without any change in specific hydraulic conductivity. It increased in saplings due to both increased radial growth and increased specific conductivity.

Conclusion

Tree size impacted xylem structure and resulted in plasticity of the potential hydraulic conductivity of the annual tree ring following canopy release.

Key message

Static site indices determined from stands’ top height are derived from different forest inventory sources with height and age information and thus enable comparisons and modeling of a species’ productivity encompassing large environmental gradients.

Context

Estimating forest site productivity under changing climate requires models that cover a wide range of site conditions. To exploit different inventory sources, we need harmonized measures and procedures for the productive potential. Static site indices (SI) appear to be a good choice.

Aims

We propose a method to derive static site indices for different inventory designs and apply it to six tree species of the German and French National Forest Inventory (NFI). For Norway spruce and European beech, the climate dependency of SI is modeled in order to estimate trends in productivity due to climate change.

Methods

Height and age measures are determined from the top diameters of a species at a given site. The SI is determined for a reference age of 100 years.

Results

The top height proves as a stable height measure that can be derived harmoniously from German and French NFI. The boundaries of the age-height frame are well described by the Chapman-Richards function. For spruce and beech, generalized additive models of the SI against simple climate variables lead to stable and plausible model behavior.

Conclusion

The introduced methodology permits a harmonized quantification of forest site productivity by static site indices. Predicting productivity in dependence on climate illustrates the benefits of combined datasets.

Key message

We present a data-driven technique to visualize forest landscapes and simulate their future development according to alternative management scenarios. Gentle harvesting intensities were preferred for maintaining scenic values in a test of eliciting public’s preferences based on the simulated landscapes.

Context

Visualizations of future forest landscapes according to alternative management scenarios are useful for eliciting stakeholders’ preferences on the alternatives. However, conventional computer visualizations require laborious tree-wise measurements or simulators to generate these observations.

Aims

We describe and evaluate an alternative approach, in which the visualization is based on reconstructing forest canopy from sparse density, leaf-off airborne laser scanning data.

Methods

Computational geometry was employed to generate filtrations, i.e., ordered sets of simplices belonging to the three-dimensional triangulations of the point data. An appropriate degree of filtering was determined by analyzing the topological persistence of the filtrations. The topology was further utilized to simulate changes to canopy biomass, resembling harvests with varying retention levels. Relative priorities of recreational and scenic values of the harvests were estimated based on pairwise comparisons and analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Results

The canopy elements were co-located with the tree stems measured in the field, and the visualizations derived from the entire landscape showed reasonably realistic, despite a low numerical correspondence with plot-level forest attributes. The potential and limitations to improve the proposed parameterization are discussed.

Conclusion

Although the criteria to evaluate the landscape visualization and simulation models were not conclusive, the results suggest that forest scenes may be feasibly reconstructed based on data already covering broad areas and readily available for practical applications.

Key message

In order to record the seasonal changes in aboveground biomass production (trunk and branches) in a forest, changes in wood density must be taken into account. A 60-year-old beech forest displayed a large intra-annual variability in its aboveground woody biomass production efficiency. This variation followed a seasonal trend with a maximum during the summer while gross primary production was rather low.

Context

In the current context of land use and climate change, there is a need to precisely quantify the carbon (C) balance of forest ecosystems, and more specifically, of C allocation to tree compartments.

Aims

We quantified the seasonal changes in the aboveground biomass production (aBP) of a beech forest growing on two different soils: an alocrisol and a calci-brunisol. In addition, for the alocrisol ecosystem, we assessed the existence and degree of intra-annual variability in the ratio of wood aBP to gross primary production (GPP), i.e., the wood aBP efficiency.

Methods

The study site is a 60-year-old beech forest in northeastern France. An eddy covariance tower records continuously net ecosystem exchange. To investigate the temporal changes in aBP, mini-cores were drilled and diameter at breast height measurements were taken on a monthly basis from 45 trees for both stands studied over 2014.

Results

A clear difference in aBP was observed between the two soils with the alocrisol being more productive than the calci-brunisol. For the alocrisol, both woody aBP and GPP changed over the course of the year, reaching peak values during June (6 and 12.5 gC m^?2 day^?1, respectively). Wood applied bias photon-to-current efficiency aboveground Biomass Production Efficiency (aBPE) also showed important intra-annual variations, ranging from 0.09 in September to 0.58 in July. Wood density varied throughout the year, and not taking it into account would have led to an overestimation of aBP by as much as 20% in April and May.

Conclusion

Our study highlights the importance of taking wood density into account for intra-annual studies of aBP. Wood aBPE cannot be considered as constant as it fluctuated from 0.09 to 0.58 throughout the year for an annual value of 0.34. The potential error in wood aBPE stemming from not taking these changes into account amounts to 15%.

Key message

In tree communities, tree size inequality reduces productivity and interacts with tree shade tolerance to modulate stand productivity, with a higher productivity in stands where shade-intolerant species dominate shade-tolerant species in size.

Context

Positive diversity–productivity relationships have been reported in different plant communities, including tree communities. These effects may be strongly related to both structural diversity and functional diversity, but also to their interactions if there is a non-random distribution of species functional characteristics among canopy layers.

Aims

We explore the relative effects on forest productivity of tree species diversity, tree size inequality, and species shade tolerance diversity, as well as the effect of the distribution of tree shade tolerance in the canopy.

Methods

We used 11,054 mixed-species forest plots from the French Forest Inventory (IGN) distributed throughout France (2006–2011). We analyzed the effects of species richness, shade tolerance diversity, and height inequality on forest plot productivity, represented by basal area annual increment over a period of 5 years, while controlling for first-order structure characteristics (basal area and quadratic mean diameter) and environmental factors (soil water budget and sum of growing degree days). Using the covariance between tree height and shade tolerance in mixed species canopies, we also explored the effect of the distribution of species’ shade tolerance among canopy layers.

Results

The results showed a positive effect of species richness (effect size, 0.02) and a negative effect of height inequality (??0.05) on mixed-forest productivity. We also showed that a negative covariance between shade tolerance and height (e.g., higher proportion of shade-tolerant species in lower height classes) increased productivity (0.01). Shade tolerance diversity did not affect productivity.

Conclusion

In tree communities, as shown previously in monospecific forest stands, tree size inequality reduces productivity. This effect is modulated by the distribution of shade tolerance among canopy layers. Previous studies on species diversity effect have generally overlooked the importance of the size structure and the size hierarchy of functional characteristics. These effects are, however, crucial and deserve to be explored in greater detail.

Key message

Diachronic photogrammetric canopy height models can be used to quantify at a fine scale changes in dominant height and wood volume following storms. The regular renewal of aerial surveys makes this approach appealing for monitoring forest changes.

Context

The increasing availability of aerial photographs and the development of dense matching algorithms open up new possibilities to assess the effects of storm events on forest canopies.

Aims

The objective of this research is to assess the potential of diachronic canopy height models derived from photogrammetric point clouds (PCHM) to quantify changes in dominant height and wood volume of a broadleaved forest following a major storm.

Methods

PCHMs derived from aerial photographs acquired before and after a storm event were calibrated using 25 field plots to estimate dominant height and volume using various modeling approaches. The calibrated models were combined with a reference damage maps to estimate both the within-stand damage variability, and the amount of volume impacted.

Results

Dominant height was predicted with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 4%, and volume with RMSEs ranging from 24 to 32% according to the type of model. The volume impacted by storm was in the range of 42–76%. Overall, the maps of dominant height changes provided more details about within-stand damage variability than conventional photointerpretation do.

Conclusion

The study suggests a promising potential for exploiting PCHM in pursuit of a rapid localization and quantification of wind-throw damages, given an adapted sampling design to calibrate models.

Key message

Tree heights in the central Congo Basin are overestimated using best-available height-diameter models. These errors are propagated into the estimation of aboveground biomass and canopy height, causing significant bias when used for calibration of remote sensing products in this region.

Context

Tree height-diameter models are important components of estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) and calibrating remote sensing products in tropical forests.

Aims

For a data-poor area of the central Congo Basin, we quantified height-diameter model performance of local, regional and pan-tropical models for their use in estimating AGB and canopy height.

Methods

At three old-growth forest sites, we assessed the bias introduced in height estimation by regional and pan-tropical height-diameter models. We developed an optimal local model with site-level randomizations accounted for by using a mixed-effects modeling approach. We quantified the error propagation of modeled heights for estimating AGB and canopy height.

Results

Regional and pan-tropical height-diameter models produced a significant overestimation in tree height, propagating into significant overestimations of AGB and Lorey’s height. The pan-tropical model accounting for climatic drivers performed better than the regional models. We present a local height-diameter model which produced nonsignificant errors for AGB and canopy height estimations at our study area.

Conclusion

The application of general models at our study area introduced bias in tree height estimations and the derived stand-level variables. Improved delimitation of regions in tropical Africa with similar forest structure is needed to produce models fit for calibrating remote sensing products.

Key message

Liming, an ameliorative method for acidified forest soils, affected the relative abundance of prey of ground-hunting spiders and consequently reduced densities of functionally similar species of these predators.

Context

Liming, an ameliorative method for acidified forest soils, may modify the structure of an arthropod community by altering the soil characteristics and/or the availability of food resources.

Aims

We investigated the effect of liming on the community structure of ground-hunting spiders in a birch forest.

Methods

We established six experimental birch stand plots. Each stand was exposed to one of three experimental treatments: control, 1.5 t/ha, or 3 t/ha of dolomitic limestone. We collected spiders using pitfall traps during 5 years. We characterized the community in terms of activity density, species richness, community-weighted mean body size, and functional diversity and evenness in body size. We further investigated the potential links through which the liming might affect spiders, namely soil characteristics, effect of liming on birch, and densities of potential prey.

Results

The commonly used dosage of 3 t/ha reduced densities of functionally similar species which led to the reduced functional evenness in body size and increased functional divergence in body size. Liming increased soil pH only slightly but decreased the densities of spiders’ preferred prey.

Conclusion

The liming affected the community of ground-hunting spiders, at least partially, through reduced densities of their preferred prey.

Key message

We generate flexible management rules for black pine stands, adaptable to alternative stand management situations and entailing thinnings, final-felling, and salvage cuts, based on the results on 270 stand level optimizations.

Context

Forest management instructions often rely on the anticipated prediction of the stand development, which poses a challenge on variable economic and environmental conditions. Instead, an alternative approach to better adapt forest management decisions to changing conditions is defining flexible rules based on thresholds that trigger management operations.

Aims

This article develops rules for the adaptive management of P. nigra stands in Catalonia (Spain) addressing the risk of fire and post-fire forest management.

Methods

The stochastic version of the simulation-optimization system RODAL was used to optimize the management of forest stands in three sites under different fire probability levels. A total of 270 optimizations were done varying site fertility, fire probability, and economic factors. The results of the optimizations were used as the basis of flexible forest management rules for adaptive stand management.

Results

The developed management rules defined the basal area limit for thinning, the thinning intensity, the mean tree diameter at which regeneration cuttings should start, and the basal area below which a salvage cutting should be done. Fire risk was not a significant predictor of the models for thinning and final cutting rules.

Conclusion

The presented rules provide a flexible tool for forest management during the stand development and under changing conditions when the management objective is to maximize economic profitability of timber production.

? Key message

Parasitism by mistletoe increases the cover and diversity of herbaceous vegetation under the host tree and attracts the activity of rabbits in comparison to control trees. Thus, the effects on forest community go beyond the parasitized tree.

? Context

Mistletoes are a diverse group of aerial hemiparasitic plants and are considered keystone species in forest ecosystems around the world. They produce nutrient-enriched litter, which exerts a substantial effect on soil-nutrient concentration, and the enriched nutrient patch alters the vegetation at the site as well as the associated fauna.

? Aims

Our goal is to ascertain whether mistletoe (Viscum album) parasitism of pine forest of a Mediterranean mountain favors herbaceous vegetation and attracts mammalian herbivores.

? Methods

We recorded in Sierra de Baza (SE Spain) the composition of the herbaceous vegetation under pines with and without mistletoe parasitism, and estimated the rabbit activity at the same sites by collecting their excrements.

? Results

An effect on herbaceous vegetation, especially in grasses belonging to the family Poaceae, was reflected in a notable increase in soil cover, species richness, and species diversity beneath parasitized pines with respect to unparasitized ones. As a consequence, parasitized pines attract the activity of rabbits, as shown by a fivefold quantity of excrement with respect to control ones.

? Conclusion

Parasitism by mistletoe, by creating patches of greater nutrient availability under the host canopy, extends its effects beyond the host tree to other members of the forest community, such as herbaceous plants and associated herbivorous animals, which in turn contribute to environmental heterogeneity with their activity.

Key message

Climate factors affect seed biomass production which in turn influences autumn wild boar spatial behaviour. Adaptive management strategies require an understanding of both masting and its influence on the behaviour of pulsed resource consumers like wild boar.

Context

Pulsed resources ecosystem could be strongly affected by climate. Disantangling the role of climate on mast seeding allow to understand a seed consumer spatial behaviour to design proper wildlife and forest management strategies.

Aims

We investigated the relationship between mast seeding and climatic variables and we evaluated the influence of mast seeding on wild boar home range dynamics.

Methods

We analysed mast seeding as seed biomass production of three broadleaf tree species (Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus cerris L., Castanea sativa Mill.) in the northern Apennines. Next, we explored which climatic variables affected tree masting patterns and finally we tested the effect of both climate and seed biomass production on wild boar home range size.

Results

Seed biomass production is partially regulated by climate; high precipitation in spring of the current year positively affects seed biomass production while summer precipitation of previous year has an opposite effect. Wild boar home range size is negatively correlated to seed biomass production, and the climate only partially contributes to determine wild boar spatial behaviour.

Conclusion

Climate factors influence mast seeding, and the negative correlation between wild boar home range and mast seeding should be taken into account for designing integrated, proactive hunting management.

Key message

Wood-anatomical traits determining the hydraulic architecture of Larix sibirica in the drought-limited Mongolian forest steppe at the southern fringe of the boreal forest respond to summer drought, but only weakly to variations in microclimate that depend on forest stand size.

Context

Siberian larch (L. sibirica Ledeb.) is limited by summer drought and shows increasing mortality rates in the Mongolian forest steppe. The climate sensitivity of stemwood formation increases with decreasing forest stand size. The trees’ hydraulic architecture is crucial for drought resistance and thus the capability to deal with climate warming.

Aims

We studied whether hydraulic traits were influenced by temporal or forest size-dependent variations in water availability and were related to tree-ring width.

Methods

Hydraulic traits (tracheid diameter, tracheid density, potential sapwood area-specific hydraulic conductivity) of earlywood were studied in stemwood series of 30 years (1985–2014) and were related to climate data. Tree-ring width was measured for the same period. Trees were selected in stands of four different size classes with increasing drought exposure with decreasing stand size.

Results

Tracheid diameters and hydraulic conductivity decreased with decreasing late summer precipitation of the previous year and were positively correlated with tree-ring width. Forest stand size had only weak effects on hydraulic traits, despite known effects on stemwood increment.

Conclusion

Decreasing tracheid diameters and thus hydraulic conductivity are a drought acclimation of L. sibirica in the Mongolian forest steppe. These acclimations occur as a response to drought periods but are little site-dependent with respect to stand size.

Key message

Selective thinning is a more viable method for beech coppice conversion to high forest when compared with thinning from below as it enhances tree growth, reduces mortality of the remaining trees, and allows to obtain stands with a higher mechanical stability and larger crowns.

Context

Beech forests in North-East Italy have been largely managed as coppice. Due to socio-economic changes, a large conversion to high forests program started in the second half of the past century.

Aims

A long-term experiment testing the effects on tree growth and stability of two different conversion methods (thinning from below—method A; selective thinning—method B) was implemented.

Methods

Both silvicultural treatments started in 1979 with a first thinning followed by a second one in 1997. All trees were periodically measured in order to assess mortality, stability, and growth during the period 1979–2010. In 2010, an assessment of stem quality and crown size was also performed.

Results

Both methods were economically viable, but method B acted with a higher intensity both in 1979 and in 1997, thus making the harvest more profitable for the owners. Moreover, method B enhanced tree growth, especially in the period after the first thinning, reduced mortality, and allowed to obtain stands with a higher mechanical stability and with larger crowns.

Conclusion

It would be possible to adopt some of the criteria prescribed with method B in future thinnings over the large areas actually managed with method A, as prescribed by the law.

Key message

In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forests and pine plantations coexist. Under similar fire regimes, cork oak forest is more resilient in terms of habitat structure (canopy, understory, and complexity of vegetation strata) than pine plantation. By contrast, both woodland types show similar resilience in plant species composition. Resilience in habitat structure varies between the two woodland types because of the resprouting and seeding strategies of cork oak and pine species, respectively. These differences can be relevant for the conservation of biodiversity of forested ecosystems in a future scenario of increased fire frequency and scale in the Mediterranean basin.

Context

Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. In fire-prone regions, plant species have developed adaptive traits (resprouting and seeding) to survive and persist due to long evolutionary coexistence with fire. In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forest and pine plantation are the most frequently burnt woodlands. Both species have different strategies to respond fire: cork oak is a resprouter while pines are mostly seeders.

Aims

We have examined the hypothesis that pine plantations are less resilient in habitat structure (canopy, understory, diversity of vegetation strata) and plant composition than cork oak woodlands.

Methods

The habitat structure and plant species composition were measured in 30 burnt and 30 unburnt 700-m transects at 12 burnt sites from north-western Africa, where the two forest types can coexist. Habitat structure and plant species composition were compared between burnt and unburnt transects from cork oak and pine plantation woodlands with generalized linear mixed models and general linear models.

Results

The results showed significant interaction effect of fire and forest type, since cork oak forest was more resilient to fire than was pine plantation in habitat structure. By contrast, both forest types were resilient to fire in the composition of the plant communities, i.e., plant composition prior to fire did not change afterwards.

Conclusion

The higher structural resilience of cork oak forest compared to pine plantation is related to the resprouting and seeding strategies, respectively, of the dominant tree species. Differences in the responses to fire need to be considered in conservation planning for the maintenance of the Mediterranean biodiversity in a future scenario of changes in fire regime.

Key message

Radial growth of silver and red maples was investigated across three forests in northwest Ohio following the outbreak of the invasive emerald ash borer. The growth response of maples was driven by an advancement in canopy class and disturbance severity.

Context

Forest disturbances resulting in species-specific diffuse mortality cause shifts in aboveground and belowground competition. This competition may differentially affect non-impacted trees, depending on crown class, disturbance severity, and species-specific responses.

Aims

The purpose of this study is to elucidate the primary drivers of silver and red maple (Acer saccharinum and A. rubrum) growth following emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis)-induced ash tree (Fraxinus spp.) mortality in riparian forests of northwest Ohio.

Methods

Using dendroecological approaches, we analyzed the pattern of radial growth in red and silver maples in conjunction with the EAB outbreak.

Results

This study revealed growth rates of maples increased 72% following EAB arrival and trees advancing in crown class grew 41% faster than those not advancing. The growth response varied by initial crown class, with trees in the intermediate class responding most dramatically. Furthermore, the positive correlation between relative basal area of ash and the radial growth response of maples indicates the important role of disturbance severity in post-disturbance dynamics.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that, although advancement in crown class may allow predictions of “winners” in forest succession post-disturbance, even trees not changing crown class benefit from decreased competition. Results from this study provide a detailed account of radial growth responses in maples following EAB-induced ash mortality and lend insight into the future canopy composition of ash-dominated riparian forests.

Key message

The chronology of periods of organogenesis and elongation is highlighted in Pinus halepensis.The two first growth units of an annual shoot are preformed inside the bud during the previous year. The following growth units are formed during the spring or summer of the current year.

Context

Analysis of annual shoot length growth phenology is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on tree production. Little is known about the basic growth characteristics and the phenology of pines.

Aims

The present study disentangles the roles of shoot organogenesis vs elongation in the annual growth cycle of the polycyclic Aleppo pine.

Methods

Growth of young Pinus halepensis trees was monitored monthly for 1 year. At each monitoring date, the bud content and meristem dimensions of the main stem shoots apices were analyzed.

Results

The two first growth units of an annual shoot are preformed inside the bud during the previous year. The following growth units are formed during the spring or summer of the current year. The gap between a shoot organogenesis and its elongation may vary from 1 month, for the last growth unit, to half a year, for the first growth units.

Conclusion

Our results underline the importance of taking seasonal environmental conditions from both the previous and the current year into account, in order to study the plasticity of annual shoot growth and its response to climate change and variability.

Key message

Near- and mid-infrared spectroscopy allows for the detection of local patterns of forest soil properties. In combination with dendrometric data, it may be used as a prospective tool for determining soil heterogeneity before setting up long-term forest monitoring experiments.

Context

Forest soils and stands generally exhibit higher spatial heterogeneity than other terrestrial ecosystems. This variability needs be taken into account before setting up long-term forest monitoring experiments to avoid multiple interactions between local heterogeneity and the factors tested in the experiment.

Aims

We hypothesized that raw near- and mid-infrared spectra can be used as an integrated proxy of a large set of soil properties. The use of this method, in combination with dendrometric data, should provide a quick and cost-effective tool for optimizing the design of experimental forest sites.

Methods

We assessed the local soil heterogeneity at 11 experimental sites in oak and beech stands, which belong to a new forest long-term ecological research (LTER) network. We used near- and mid-infrared spectroscopy in soil and litter samples. The spectra were subjected to principal components analyses (PCA) to determine the intra-site variability of the soil and litter layers.

Results

Based on mapped PCA coordinates and basic dendrometric data, it was possible to design the experiment and minimize the interactions between the treatment layout and the tested variables. The method was validated with chemical analyses of the soil. No interaction was detected at the set-up of the experiment between the treatment layout and chemical soil properties (C, N, C/N ratio, pH, CEC, Al, Mg, P₂O₅, Fe, Mn, Na, and K).

Conclusion

Near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy is a useful tool for characterizing the overall heterogeneity of soil chemical properties. It can be used without any preliminary calibration. In combination with dendrometric data, it provides a reliable method for optimizing LTER plots in different types of ecosystems.

Key message

Pilodyn and acoustic velocity measurements on standing trees, used for predicting density and stiffness, can be good genetic selection tools for black spruce. Genetic parameters and selection efficiency were conserved in two breeding zones with contrasted bioclimatic conditions.

Context

Given the recent progress made in the black spruce genetic improvement program, the integration of juvenile wood mechanical properties as selection criteria is increasingly relevant.

Aims

This study aims to estimate the genetic parameters of in situ wood density and modulus of elasticity (MoE) measurements and to verify the efficiency of various measuring methods used for large-scale selection of black spruce based on wood quality.

Methods

Height, diameter, wood density, and some indirect measures of density (penetration and drilling resistance) and MoE (acoustical velocity and Pilodyn) were estimated on 2400 24-year-old trees of 120 open-pollinated families in progeny trials located in the continuous boreal or mixed forest subzones.

Results

Heritability of growth, density, and indirect density measurements varied from low to moderate and was moderate for acoustical velocity in both vegetation subzones. Expected genetic gains for wood properties based on in situ methods were higher for MoE proxy estimation combining Pilodyn and acoustic velocity.

Conclusion

Acoustic velocity is a good predictor of MoE. It is virtually unaffected by the environment and can be used on a large scale in the same manner as the Pilodyn for density. Using a proxy estimation that combines both methods helps optimize genetic gain for MoE.

Key message

When predicting forest growth at a regional or national level, uncertainty arises from the sampling and the prediction model. Using a transition-matrix model, we made predictions for the whole Catalonian forest over an 11-year interval. It turned out that the sampling was the major source of uncertainty and accounted for at least 60 % of the total uncertainty.

Context

With the development of new policies to mitigate global warming and to protect biodiversity, there is a growing interest in large-scale forest growth models. Their predictions are affected by many sources of uncertainty such as the sampling error, errors in the estimates of the model parameters, and residual errors. Quantifying the total uncertainty of those predictions helps to evaluate the risk of making a wrong decision.

Aims

In this paper, we quantified the contribution of the sampling error and the model-related errors to the total uncertainty of predictions from a large-scale growth model in Catalonia.

Methods

The model was based on a transition-matrix approach and predicted tree frequencies by species group and 5-cm diameter class over an 11-year time step. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we propagated the sampling error and the model-related errors to quantify their contribution to the total uncertainty.

Results

The sampling variance accounted for at least 60 % of the total variance in smaller diameter classes, with this percentage increasing up to 90 % in larger diameter classes.

Conclusion

Among the few possible options to reduce sampling uncertainty, we suggest improving the variance–covariance estimator of the predictions in order to better account for the multivariate framework and the changing plot size.