共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 562 毫秒
1.
The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CI: 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high. 相似文献
2.
This study presented evidence that creates a quandary for conservation management: predation by one threatened species, New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri), threatens the viability of another threatened species, yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes), at Otago Peninsula, South Island, New Zealand. Otago Peninsula holds the largest population of yellow-eyed penguins on South Island and the only breeding population of New Zealand sea lions on the New Zealand mainland. New Zealand sea lions here represent the vanguard of re-colonisation within their prehistoric range, with nine females and 50-70 males resident in 2005. The initial indication of a potential problem was an attack on a yellow-eyed penguin by a New Zealand sea lion witnessed in 1996. The majority of 20 records for attacks were at two neighbouring sites, where they coincided with decreases in penguin nest numbers and adult annual survival. In contrast, penguin nest numbers increased at a third site, the main base for male sea lions at Otago Peninsula. Evidence from prey remains indicated that male sea lions did not eat yellow-eyed penguins but that females ate 20-30 annually, with one individual possibly responsible for most kills. Modelling indicated that the penguin population at any one site could not remain viable if it was the sole source of penguins killed. The dilemma is either to do nothing, and risk collapse of the Otago Peninsula population of yellow-eyed penguins, or to take action against known culprits, and risk failure in re-colonisation of the New Zealand mainland by New Zealand sea lions. 相似文献
3.
延河流域土壤侵蚀对LUCC的响应及驱动力 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了探究延河流域土地利用/覆被变化对土壤侵蚀的双重效应及其驱动力,为今后水土保持和生态环境建设提供依据,采用构建土壤侵蚀对LUCC响应模型的方法,结合GIS和RS技术进行了研究。结果表明:(1)1980—2018年期间,延河流域LUCC引起的土壤侵蚀效应和土壤保持效应共存,土壤侵蚀效应在波动中减弱,土壤保持效应在波动中增强;(2)同一时期内,LUCC引起土壤侵蚀效应和土壤保持效应相抵后,1980—1990年,LUCC引起土壤侵蚀效应,1990—2018年,LUCC引起土壤保持效应;(3)1980—1990年,LUCC引起土壤侵蚀效应主要受人口增长驱动,为满足人类需求,大量开垦耕地,增加建设用地,1991—2010年,LUCC引起的土壤保持效应主要受政策驱动,城市建设、产业结构调整等社会经济发展也起到一定作用,2011—2018年,LUCC引起的土壤保持效应主要受人口城市化的驱动,土地政策也起到一定的作用。可见,1990年之前,受人口增加驱动,延河流域LUCC引起土壤侵蚀效应,1990年之后,主要受经济、政策等因素的影响,延河流域LUCC主要引起土壤保持效应。 相似文献
4.
Ephraim M. Hanks Devin S. Johnson Mevin B. Hooten 《Journal of Agricultural, Biological & Environmental Statistics》2017,22(3):353-372
Movement for many animal species is constrained in space by barriers such as rivers, shorelines, or impassable cliffs. We develop an approach for modeling animal movement constrained in space by considering a class of constrained stochastic processes, reflected stochastic differential equations. Our approach generalizes existing methods for modeling unconstrained animal movement. We present methods for simulation and inference based on augmenting the constrained movement path with a latent unconstrained path and illustrate this augmentation with a simulation example and an analysis of telemetry data from a Steller sea lion (Eumatopias jubatus) in southeast Alaska. 相似文献
5.
Bruce C. Robertson B. Louise Chilvers Padraig J. Duignan Neil J. Gemmell 《Biological conservation》2006,127(2):227-236
Dispersal impacts on a range of population parameters making it a key piece of information in species conservation. Despite its importance, dispersal is poorly characterized for many species: pinnipeds are no exception. Understanding dispersal patterns of the New Zealand sea lion Phocarctos hookeri is crucial in the conservation management of the species as its recovery to a non-threatened status hinges on range recolonisation. In this study, we examined the movements of breeding adult male New Zealand sea lions within and following the breeding season of the 2002/03 austral summer using a novel multi colony approach. Based on resightings of 202 individually identifiable adult males, we found (1) a previously unappreciated, high level of dispersal by adult territorial males between breeding colonies during the pupping period and (2) that breeding males disperse to the extremes of the species’ range at the end of female oestrous. Our findings are contrary to the current paradigm of otariid breeding behaviour, which is believed to consist of prolonged, uninterrupted male territoriality based on intense male-male competition and sustained fasting. Adult male dispersal between colonies and across the species range has important implications for adult males as vectors of disease in three recent epizootics, species management and species recovery via recolonisation as males are apparently remaining part of a localized, vulnerable breeding population. 相似文献
6.
The New Zealand fairy tern Sterna nereis davisae has only one small population of c.30 individuals and its conservation is a priority. The population was declining prior to the mid 1980s. Management of the three remaining breeding sites was initiated during 1983/84 and intensified from 1991 onwards. We have collated historic data and reviewed the changes in the population since 1991. Our results illustrate that the number of chicks fledged increased since 1991. Fifty-five chicks fledged between 1991/92 and 2002/03. Demographic modelling based on productivity and age-specific survival estimates predicted that the population should increase at c.1.5% per annum. The predicted results from the demographic model contrasted against the observation of a stable resident population. This difference could have resulted from the movement of individuals out of our study area. Demographic modelling also indicated that the population may have continued to decline at a rate of c.1.4% per annum if management was not initiated. Extinction risk within 50 years has decreased from 0.52 to 0.39. 相似文献
7.
Rita Bastos Mário Santos Jaime Albino Ramos Joana Vicente Carlos Guerra Joaquim Alonso João Honrado Ricardo Santos Ceia Sérgio Timóteo João Alexandre Cabral 《Biological conservation》2012,147(1):243-254
The Azores bullfinch (Pyrrhula murina) is an endemic bird of São Miguel island (Azores Archipelago, Portugal), currently threatened by two of the major causes of biodiversity loss worldwide: invasion of native habitats by exotic plants and habitat destruction by land use changes. The aim of this research was to develop and test a novel spatially explicit modelling framework that predicts the Azores bullfinch responses to alternative realistic scenarios of native forest management. This was done by integrating Multi-Model Inference statistical analysis, Stochastic-Dynamic Modelling and Geographic Information Systems under a common framework relating bird population trends to changes in the surrounding habitats. Overall, in the next 25 years, the Azores bullfinch breeding population was predicted to increase around 19% as a consequence of habitat management actions already implemented (“LIFE Priolo” project) or around 27% in the context of realistic future habitat restoration scenarios. These results represent, respectively, a supplementary increase of more 6% or more 13% in the Azores bullfinch abundance when compared with the trends simulated for the scenario without management. Nevertheless, those actions seemed to be relatively ineffective in promoting the expansion of the species from the actual restricted favourable area, essentially due to local forestry dynamics and on-going plant invasion processes. This novel integrative approach provides a promising baseline to support ecological models with increased realism and predictive power, making the outputs more useful and intuitive to decision-makers and environmental managers. 相似文献
8.
Climate can interact with population dynamics in complex ways. In this study we describe how climatic factors influenced the dynamics of an amphibian metapopulation over 12 years through interactions with survival, recruitment and dispersal. Low annual survival of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) was related to mild winters and heavy rainfall, which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Consequently, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Despite this regional effect, the four subpopulations were largely asynchronous in their dynamics. Three out of the four subpopulations suffered reproductive failure in most years, and recruitment to the metapopulation relied on one source. Variation in recruitment and juvenile dispersal was therefore probably driving asynchrony in population dynamics. At least one subpopulation went extinct over the 12 year period. These trends are consistent with simulations of the system, which predicted that two subpopulations had an extinction risk of >50% if adult survival fell below 30% in combination with low juvenile survival. Intermittent recruitment may therefore only result in population persistence if compensated for by relatively high adult survival. Mild winters may consequently reduce the viability of amphibian metapopulations. In the face of climate change, conservation actions may be needed at the local scale to compensate for reduced adult survival. These would need to include management to enhance recruitment, connectivity and dispersal. 相似文献
9.
Carnivores in Asia and throughout the world face high risk of extinction due to factors such as continued habitat loss and hunting. However, the Asiatic lion of Gir forest, India presents a conservation success story whose history may help to guide the recovery and conservation of other imperiled predators. Protection of core and satellite habitats and the relocation of pastoral communities and their livestock triggered forest recovery and coincident increases in native prey populations. Wild ungulate populations increased by 10-fold between 1970 and 2010, supporting an increase in the lion population from 180 animals in 1974 to 411 animals in 2010. Coincident with this increase, lions shifted their predation preferences from a diet composed of 75% livestock to one composed of just 25% livestock. This example demonstrates the value of native prey populations to sustain imperiled carnivore species, and the use of protected areas and livestock exclusion to maintain healthy prey populations. 相似文献
10.
Laurence H. Watson Helena E. Odendaal Jacques Pietersen 《Biological conservation》2005,122(2):173-180
The small Cape mountain zebra population in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve represents a third of the entire gene pool of this endangered species and is thus vital for it’s conservation. Presently, management of this population is largely hands off, with the belief that it will grow to levels which will allow it to form a source for the mixing of mountain zebra stocks in the future. The growth of this population however, has been slow and we investigated the influence of habitat and fire on this growth. Firstly, we used a diffusion model to perform a population viability analysis. This analysis indicated that the population had a low probability of attaining quasi-extinction in the next 50 years (G = 0.0032). However, our findings indicated that less than 30% of the reserve was suitable for mountain zebra and that the preferred habitat would have to be burnt at unnaturally short intervals to sustain the present growth. We therefore argue that the risk of quasi-extinction to this population is greater than predicted and suggest that management options need to be implemented to reduce this risk. These options include; translocation to another protected area; acquisition of adjacent land; burning preferred habitat at unnaturally short intervals; forming a conservancy with adjacent landowners; leasing cultivated land for pasture. We suggest that only the latter two options are likely to stimulate mountain zebra population growth in the short term and that these should receive immediate attention. 相似文献
11.
Wildlife populations are affected by a series of emerging diseases, some of which pose a significant threat to their conservation. They can also be reservoirs of pathogens that threaten domestic animal and human health. In this paper, we review the ecology of two viruses that have caused significant disease in domestic animals and humans and are carried by wild fruit bats in Asia and Australia. The first, Hendra virus, has caused disease in horses and/or humans in Australia every five years since it first emerged in 1994. Nipah virus has caused a major outbreak of disease in pigs and humans in Malaysia in the late 1990s and has also caused human mortalities in Bangladesh annually since 2001. Increased knowledge of fruit bat population dynamics and disease ecology will help improve our understanding of processes driving the emergence of diseases from bats. For this, a transdisciplinary approach is required to develop appropriate host management strategies that both maximise the conservation of bat populations as well as minimise the risk of disease outbreaks in domestic animals and humans. 相似文献
12.
Water quality trends from 1970 to 2005 were defined along 30 Delaware streams in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bay watersheds in the USA. Water quality improved or was constant at 69% of stations since 1990 and at 80% of stations since 1970/1980. Dissolved oxygen (DO) improved or was constant at 73% of streams since 1990 and 32% of streams since 1970/1980. Total suspended sediment improved or was constant at 75% of streams since 1990 and 100% of streams since 1970/1980. Enterococcus bacteria improved or remained constant at 80% of streams since 1990 and 93% of streams since 1970/1980. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen improved or was constant at 48% of streams since 1990 and 100% of streams since 1970/1980. Total phosphorus improved or was constant at 66% of streams since 1990 and 85% of streams since 1970/1980. During 2001–2005, median levels were good or fair at 100% of the stations for DO, 78% for sediment, 50% for bacteria, 59% for nitrogen, and 56% for phosphorus. Good water quality correlates with high amounts of forest area (>25%) in Delaware watersheds. Since the Federal Clean Water Act Amendments of the 1970s, improving Delaware water quality stations (50) outnumbered degrading stations (23) by a 2:1 margin. Since 1990, degrading water quality stations (46) exceeded improving stations (38) mostly due to deteriorating nitrogen levels in half of Delaware streams, a reversal from early gains achieved since the 1970s. Over the last three and a half decades, watershed strategies have improved or preserved water quality along Delaware streams; however, greater emphasis is needed to curb recently resurging increases in nitrogen levels. 相似文献
13.
Areas of occurrence, population trends and extinction patterns for great bustard Otis tarda populations in Portugal are described for a 22-year period (1980-2002). The major population trends were a large decline in the 1984-1995 period, followed by a fast post-1995 increase. Most of this variation was explained by the trend observed in a single site, Castro Verde, where population has been increasing, in contrast with all other areas where populations have been declining. Eight local extinctions were documented, and probability of extinction increased fast below a threshold of 30 individuals in the initial (1980) population. Agricultural intensification, illegal hunting, road and power line building, and afforestations were the main causes of population decline and extinctions. The exceptional character of the Castro Verde population is explained by the maintenance of good habitat quality, the existence of a bustard conservation project and of an agri-environmental scheme promoting farm management compatible with bustard conservation. Stochastic computer simulations, using VORTEX, suggested that migration of individuals from other sites into Castro Verde was likely, as local productivity alone could not explain the observed population increase. The Portuguese population was estimated at 1150 birds in 2002, of which 912 were concentrated in Castro Verde. The present trend for the increasing concentration of the Portuguese population of great bustards in a single site might lead to increased probability of extinction, particularly due to environmental stochasticity. 相似文献
14.
《Biological conservation》2003,109(3):417-423
Methods to evaluate population trends have recently received particular attention because of the decreasing patterns shown by several species since the nineteenth century. We have studied demographic traits of the Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) population of Andalusia (southern Spain) for 20 years (1980-2000). This species is endangered and is suffering a rapid decline in most of its distribution range. Although our study population has remained stable for the last 10 years, both age at first breeding and productivity have decreased during the last 5 years. We propose that age at first breeding could be used as a potential early warning signal to detect possible future changes in population trends of long-lived species with deferred maturation age. In particular, in this species spatial variation in demographic traits could help to detect whether unnatural events such as shooting are decreasing age at first breeding and productivity. If occupation of territories by non-adults is caused by human persecution, conservation efforts in the particular case of Bonelli's eagle have to be directed to protect those breeding territories where an increase in the percentage of pairs containing at least one non-adult individual would be detected. 相似文献
15.
16.
Many seabird populations are currently decreasing, especially albatrosses for which the primary threat is recognised to be mortality in fisheries. Introduced predators, climate change and other factors such as diseases can also have large impacts on seabirds. Here, we assessed the relative effect of three potential threats: climate, fisheries and diseases on the demography of an endangered marine predator and modelled its population dynamics to project its size under different scenarios. We based our study on a long-term monitoring of a colony of individually marked Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses at Amsterdam Island, subtropical Indian Ocean, that has declined during the past twenty years. We found no evidence for an impact of legal tuna longlining on demographic parameters. Hatching success was lower during El Niño years but survival (0.902 ± 0.011) was not affected by climatic factors. Avian cholera caused high chick mortality (0.808 ± 0.181) which in turn probably triggered the high emigration rate (0.038 ± 0.011) through dispersal of failed breeders. This colony has a high risk of extinction. However, the rest of the population at Amsterdam Island seemingly not affected to the same extent, declined but stabilised since 1998. Matrix models indicated that lowered adult survival and the very low breeding success, resulting in low recruitment, have both contributed to the decline of the yellow-nosed albatross colony until the mid-1990s, but that more recent decline was primarily caused by low fledging success. Our results highlight that potential threats such as fisheries, diseases or climate have to be considered simultaneously to disentangle their roles when assessing the conservation status of a marine predator species. 相似文献
17.
Esther Sebastián-González José Antonio Sánchez-Zapata Francisco Botella Jordi Figuerola Fernando Hiraldo Brendan A. Wintle 《Biological conservation》2011,(9):2354-2361
Prioritizing management actions for wildlife conservation is a difficult task due to the large number of problems relative to available conservation resources and uncertainty about the benefits arising from numerous potential management actions. In this study we use a cost-efficiency protocol to evaluate and prioritize eight different management actions for waterbird community in wetlands throughout southeastern Spain. The protocol generated an action priority ranking based on the costs and predicted benefits of the actions in terms of waterbird carrying capacity. Action prioritization outcomes were also evaluated using population viability analysis models for two of the study species. Removal of dead bird carcasses to prevent disease outbreaks was identified as the most cost efficient action. Removing lead pellets from the sediment was the least efficient strategy. Our approach highlights the role of detailed risk assessment as a form of quality control on the simpler prioritization protocols. We recommend a two-step prioritization protocol based on (i) a rapid, usually simpler prioritization approach for the bulk of species or values being managed, and (ii) a more sophisticated risk assessment for a subset of the species of interest for which detailed risk assessments are tractable. This process strikes a balance between sophistication and practicality. 相似文献
18.
Heini Kujala Miguel B. Araújo Wilfried Thuiller Mar Cabeza 《Biological conservation》2011,(10):2450-2458
Gap analysis is a widely used method for assessing the representation of species in protected area (PA) networks. However, representation does not imply persistence. Here, we investigated whether gap analysis may result in misleading conservation guidelines by comparing the representation to two indicators of persistence. We ran a gap analysis with Finnish breeding birds and identified conservation priorities based on current distribution patterns. We tested the sensitivity of these results by using two target setting schemes and several thresholds defining the amount of protected area, and found the levels of representation identified by gap analysis to be robust. We then compared the gap analysis results with recent population trends and projected changes in potential suitable climate under different climate change scenarios for the year 2050. We show that although high latitude species are well represented in PAs, they are currently declining and are projected to lose climatic suitability in the near future. In contrast, low latitude species with poor representation in PAs have increasing population trends and are generally expected to expand their ranges into protected areas in the near future. This study demonstrates with empirical data a mismatch between representation in PAs and population trends, resulting in misleading understanding of current PA effectiveness. The mismatch is linked to the latitude of species distributions and corresponds to expected future changes, indicating that the patterns are potentially driven by climate change. We therefore urge practitioners and researchers to include better indicators of persistence in gap-analysis frameworks even for short term assessments. 相似文献
19.
Daniel Lunney Lisa O'NeillAlison Matthews William B Sherwin 《Biological conservation》2002,106(1):101-113
This study investigated the recent demise of a koala population at Iluka in eastern Australia and demonstrates the potential role of population viability analysis (PVA) in the recovery and management of similar small populations. Information about the Iluka population was reconstructed from various sources, including community knowledge, wildlife carer data, and from a radiotracking program. Modelling scenarios were constructed to identify which factors may be critical to the survival of the Iluka population and which management options could provide the most effective means of its recovery. The model suggested that even substantial improvements in mortality and fertility alone do not prevent the modelled population declining towards extinction. Rebuilding of the koala population is likely to require guaranteed regular immigration of animals of both sexes in conjunction with considerable improvements in population mortality and fertility. This highlights the importance of the metapopulation for recruitment, an outcome that was not expected prior to modelling. These modelling outcomes suggest that the management of small, local populations of koalas will need a concerted management effort focusing on multiple causes of population change. Local management actions, such as reducing road deaths and managing habitat and fire, must be accompanied by knowledge of the larger geographical population. 相似文献
20.
An assessment of the olive ridley turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) nesting population in Orissa, India
Olive ridley mass nesting events or ‘arribadas’ have been documented in Orissa, India since 1974. However, since standardised techniques have not been used to census turtles, actual population trends remain unknown. Herein, we summarise information on nesting populations in Orissa, using data from multiple sources to arrive at consensus estimates and to derive trends. We conducted a quantitative estimate of an arribada in March 1999, where nesting was estimated as ∼180,000 turtles by the strip transect method. Non-linear (quadratic) fits for arribada data from 1976-1999 and a recent decrease in the size of adults suggest a potential or imminent decline, consistent with fishery-related mortality of at least 90,000 turtles since 1994. Though statistical support for the recent decline is equivocal, efforts to reduce mortality and close monitoring of the population would be prudent. The absence of reliable data on which to base conservation action highlights an urgent need to train management personnel in data collection and estimation techniques for effective monitoring of status, threats and trends. 相似文献