共查询到10条相似文献，搜索用时 250 毫秒
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以碳汇林基线情景低效针叶林,包括日本落叶松、杉木、马尾松、湿地松为研究对象,利用收集和调查的生物量与解析木实测数据,选择不同数学模型,通过曲线回归、非线性回归方法拟合模型参数,建立4个树种的单株生物量模型、胸径生长模型和树高生长模型。结果表明:4个树种的单株生物量模型、胸径生长模型采用相关系数较高、MSE值最小的幂函数模型、S模型拟合效果最好;4个树种的树高生长模型形式各异,日本落叶松、湿地松以Logistic模型拟合效果最好,杉木以抛物线模型拟合效果最好,马尾松以S模型拟合效果最好;检验结果表明,所建日本落叶松、杉木、马尾松、湿地松的生长模型预估精度均达到了95%以上,且都通过了F检验。 相似文献
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对赣南树木园内521个引种树种物候、生长动态长期观测所积累的资料进行多元统计分析.如用聚类分析揭示物种间物候期与生长的相似性并进行数量分类;用典范相关分析揭示两组物候期变量之间的相关性,为物候期预报与控制提供信息参考;对一些物种苗期进行生长节律分析与月生长建模,为物种苗期田间管理进行有价值技术储备;对物种测树指标进行数学建模,有利于了解物种生长特性,为引种与推广提供有价值的技术资料.统计分析手段以简取繁,除引用多元统计分析方法外,还藉助于灰色系统理论中的灰色建模与关联分析. 相似文献
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两种主要森林害虫发生面积预报的初步研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
应用马尔可夫链和灰色系统GM (1,1)预测模型对宁化县 2种主要森林害虫—马尾松毛虫和黄脊竹蝗的年度发生面积进行了分析和预测。结果表明 :马尔可夫链对马尾松毛虫和黄脊竹蝗发生面积预测效果较好 ,灰色系统GM (1,1)预测模型对马尾松毛虫发生面积预测效果较好 ,而对黄脊竹蝗发生面积预测效果较差 相似文献
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光皮桦苗期生长节律研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用Logistic曲线和S曲线拟合光皮桦苗期生长过程,结果表明Logistic曲线更适合描述地径生长趋势,S曲线更适合描述苗高生长趋势,拟合的生长曲线可预测光皮桦苗木生长状况,从而指导育苗及造林决策。利用有序样本聚类分析对光皮桦日生长率进行分析,将苗木生长划分为生长前期、高峰期、盛末期、生长后期4个阶段,并根据不同阶段的生长特性提出相应的育苗措施,以培育高质量苗木。 相似文献
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修正的灰色模型在森林生物灾害发生面积预测中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以2000—2008年《中国林业统计年鉴》中生物灾害发生面积为依据,采用原序列和残差序列进行灰色动态预测模型GM(1,1)建模,分别建立林业病虫鼠害发生总面积、病害发生面积、虫害发生面积、鼠害发生面积、松毛虫发生面积、杨树食叶害虫发生面积和杨树蛀干害虫发生面积及各指标重度发生面积的灰色预测模型,对森林生物灾害发生面积进行预测。通过精度检验,应用残差序列所建的14个指标模型中,有3个模型非常准确(平均相对误差小于1%),5个模型很准确(平均相对误差在1%~5%之间),5个模型较准确(平均相对误差在5%~10%),只有1个模型准确率较低(平均相对误差大于10%)。所建立的模型适用于发生面积趋势预测,准确率非常高,预测结果有较高置信度,且给出了5 a预测结果。该研究为我国森林生物灾害预测提供了新的途径。 相似文献
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T. R. Chandrasekhar 《林业研究》2012,23(3):365-375
No attempt has been made to date to model growth in girth of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliansis). We evaluated the few widely used growth functions to identify the most parsimonious and biologically reasonable model for describing the girth growth of young rubber trees based on an incomplete set of young age measurements. Monthly data for girth of immature trees (age 2 to 12 years) from two locations were subjected to modelling. Reparameterized, unconstrained and constrained growth functions of Richards (RM), Gompertz (GM) and the monomolecular model (MM) were fitted to data. Duration of growth was the constraint introduced. In the first stage, we attempted a population average (PA) model to capture the trend in growth. The best PA model wasfitted as a subject specific (SS) model. We used appropriate error variance-covariance structure to account for correlation due to repeated measurements over time. Unconstrained functions underestimated the asymptotic maximum that did not reflect the carrying capacity of the locations. Underestimations were attributed to the partial set of measurements made during the early growth phase of the trees. MM proved superior to RM and GM. In the random coefficient models, both Gf and G0 appeared to be influenced by tree level effects. Inclusion of diagonal definite positive matrix removed the correlation between random effects.The results were similar at both locations. In the overall assessment MM appeared as the candidate model for studying the girth-age relationships in Hevea trees. Based on the fitted model we conclude that, in Hevea trees, growth rate is maintained at maximum value at t0, then decreases until the final state at dG/dt ≥ 0, resulting in yield curve with no period of accelerating growth. One physiological explanation is that photosynthetic activity in Hevea trees decreases as girth increases and constructive metabolism is larger than destructive metabolism. 相似文献