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Sarah M Glaser Michael J Fogarty Hui Liu Irit Altman Chih‐Hao Hsieh Les Kaufman Alec D MacCall Andrew A Rosenberg Hao Ye George Sugihara 《Fish and Fisheries》2014,15(4):616-633
Complex nonlinear dynamics in marine fisheries create challenges for prediction and management, yet the extent to which they occur in fisheries is not well known. Using nonlinear forecasting models, we analysed over 200 time series of survey abundance and landings from two distinct ecosystems for patterns of dynamic complexity (dimensionality and nonlinear dynamics) and predictability. Differences in system dimensionality and nonlinear dynamics were associated with time series that reflected human intervention via fishing effort, implying the coupling between human and natural systems generated dynamics distinct from those detected in the natural resource subsystem alone. Estimated dimensionality was highest for landings and higher in abundance indices of unfished species than fished species. Fished species were more likely to display nonlinear dynamics than unfished species, and landings were significantly less predictable than abundance indices. Results were robust to variation in life history characteristics. Dynamics were predictable over a 1‐year time horizon in seventy percent of time series, but predictability declined exponentially over a 5‐year horizon. The ability to make predictions in fisheries systems is therefore extremely limited. To our knowledge, this is the first cross‐system comparative study, and the first at the scale of individual species, to analyse empirically the dynamic complexity observed in fisheries data and to quantify predictability broadly. We outline one application of short‐term forecasts to a precautionary approach to fisheries management that could improve how uncertainty and forecast error are incorporated into assessment through catch limit buffers. 相似文献
134.
Portnaya I Cogan U Livney YD Ramon O Shimoni K Rosenberg M Danino D 《Journal of agricultural and food chemistry》2006,54(15):5555-5561
The association behavior, critical micellization concentration (CMC), and enthalpy of demicellization (DeltaHdemic) of bovine beta-casein were studied, for the first time by isothermal titration calorimetry, in a pH 7.0 phosphate buffer with 0.1 ionic strength and in pure water. In the buffer solutions, the CMC decreased asymptotically from 0.15 to 0.006 mM as the temperature was raised from 16 to 45 degrees C. DeltaHdemic decreased with increasing temperature between 16 and 28 degrees C but increased from 28 to 45 degrees C. Thermodynamic analysis below 30 degrees C is consistent with the Kegeles shell model, which suggests a stepwise association process. At higher temperatures, this model exhibits limitations, and the micellization becomes much more cooperative. The CMC values in water, measured between 17 and 28 degrees C, decreased with increasing temperature and, expectedly, were higher than those found in the buffer solutions. beta-Casein micelles were visualized and characterized, for the first time in their hydrated state, using advanced digital-imaging cryogenic transmission electron microscopy. The images revealed small, oblate micelles, about approximately 13 nm in diameter. The micelles shape and dimensions remained nearly constant in the temperature range of 24-35 degrees C. 相似文献
135.
Audrey C. Muguet‐Chanoit DVM MS Ji‐Hey Lim DVM PhD Ryan Gallagher DVM Zachary Niman DVM Diplomate ACVIM Neurology Stacy Dillard DVM Diplomate ACVIM Neurology James Campbell DVM PhD Peter Early DVM Diplomate ACVIM Neurology Karen R. Muñana DVM MS Diplomate ACVIM Neurology Courtenay Freeman DVM Marc Kent DVM Diplomate ACVIM Neurology Carley Giovanella DVM Diplomate ACVIM Neurology 《Veterinary surgery : VS》2012,41(2):200-206
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Treatment time,ease of use and cost associated with use of Equashield™, PhaSeal®, or no closed system transfer device for administration of cancer chemotherapy to a dog model
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K. Kicenuik N. Northrup A. Dawson J. Locke J. A. Villamil J. Chretin G. Sfiligoi C. Clifford M. Rosenberg T. Hamilton R. Regan C. Mallett J. Philibert J. Impellizeri E. Hofmeister 《Veterinary and comparative oncology》2017,15(1):163-173
This prospective experimental simulation study evaluated the efficiency, ease of use (EOU) and cost of administering chemotherapy with two closed system transfer devices (CSTD, Equashield? and PhaSeal®) and no CSTD. Forty‐six veterinary technicians (VT) working in oncology specialty practices were timed during chemotherapy administration simulated with water and a model canine limb 10 times with each system and with no CSTD. EOU and likelihood of recommending each system were rated by VT using visual analog scales. Costs were obtained from veterinary distributors. Administration was fastest with Equashield? (P = 0.0003), but the difference was not enough to affect case flow. Equashield? was easier to use than PhaSeal® or no CSTD (P = 0.002), however VT recommended both CSTD more strongly than no CSTD (P < 0.0001). Equashield? cost less than PhaSeal® but was sold only in bulk quantities. CSTD did not decrease efficiency in administering chemotherapy and were readily accepted by VT. 相似文献
138.
Frey CF Regotz J Rosenberg G Gottstein B Kohler S 《Schweizer Archiv für Tierheilkunde》2010,152(12):569-573
The present study describes the occurrence of intestinal parasite infections in livestock guardian dogs and herding dogs. A total of 71 guardian dogs (more than half of the total number of guardian dogs in Switzerland) and 21 herding dogs were coprologically examined, using a combined sedimentation-flotation method. In 21 (23 %) of the dogs intestinal parasites were detected, and 8 (8.7 %) of these dogs shed either sporocysts of Sarcocystis sp. (n = 6) or taeniid eggs (n = 2). The evaluation of questionnaires providing data on age, origin and deworming schemes of the dogs completed the study. 相似文献
139.
- 1. Tropical, high islands of the Pacific have developed unique freshwater fish faunas that are currently threatened by a range of human activities. This paper documents distinct differences in life history strategies from fish communities found in streams of Fiji compared with fish assemblages in freshwater systems on larger continental land masses. While river systems of northern Australia and Papua New Guinea have a high proportion of freshwater residents, the Fiji fauna is dominated by amphidromous gobiids that migrate across a broad range of habitats throughout their life cycle.
- 2. The number of amphidromous fish species and the number of all fish species in mid‐reaches of Fiji rivers are significantly affected by loss of catchment forest cover and introductions of tilapia (Oreochromis spp.). On average, stream networks with established Oreochromis spp. populations have 11 fewer species of native fish than do intact systems. The fish that disappear are mostly eleotrid and gobiid taxa, which have important dietary and economic value.
- 3. Based on the strong links between catchment land clearing, non‐native species introductions and loss of migratory pathways for freshwater fish, spatial information was compiled on a national scale to identify priority areas for conservation in Fiji with intact connectivity between forests, hydrologic networks and coral reefs. Areas with high connectivity included remote, largely undeveloped regions of Vanua Levu (Kubulau, Wainunu, Dama, Udu Point, Natewa, Qelewara) and Taveuni, as well as smaller mapping units (Naikorokoro, Sawakasa) of Viti Levu with low density of roads and high relative amounts of mangroves and reefs.
- 4. These priority areas for conservation can only be effectively protected and managed through cross‐sectoral collaboration and ecosystem‐based approaches. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
140.
Sean C Anderson Andrew B Cooper Olaf P Jensen Cóilín Minto James T Thorson Jessica C Walsh Jamie Afflerbach Mark Dickey‐Collas Kristin M Kleisner Catherine Longo Giacomo Chato Osio Daniel Ovando Iago Mosqueira Andrew A Rosenberg Elizabeth R Selig 《Fish and Fisheries》2017,18(4):732-741
Fishery managers must often reconcile conflicting estimates of population status and trend. Superensemble models, commonly used in climate and weather forecasting, may provide an effective solution. This approach uses predictions from multiple models as covariates in an additional “superensemble” model fitted to known data. We evaluated the potential for ensemble averages and superensemble models (ensemble methods) to improve estimates of population status and trend for fisheries. We fit four widely applicable data‐limited models that estimate stock biomass relative to equilibrium biomass at maximum sustainable yield (B/BMSY). We combined these estimates of recent fishery status and trends in B/BMSY with four ensemble methods: an ensemble average and three superensembles (a linear model, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensembles on 5,760 simulated stocks and tested them with cross‐validation and against a global database of 249 stock assessments. Ensemble methods substantially improved estimates of population status and trend. Random forest and boosted regression trees performed the best at estimating population status: inaccuracy (median absolute proportional error) decreased from 0.42 – 0.56 to 0.32 – 0.33, rank‐order correlation between predicted and true status improved from 0.02 – 0.32 to 0.44 – 0.48 and bias (median proportional error) declined from ?0.22 – 0.31 to ?0.12 – 0.03. We found similar improvements when predicting trend and when applying the simulation‐trained superensembles to catch data for global fish stocks. Superensembles can optimally leverage multiple model predictions; however, they must be tested, formed from a diverse set of accurate models and built on a data set representative of the populations to which they are applied. 相似文献