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991.
Metal dispersal in the Danube and Maritsa drainage basins resulting from metal mining activities in Bulgaria has been assessed through the collection of 611 samples of river water, river channel and floodplain sediment, and mine waste from over 218 sites. Concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in river water were found to be highest in close proximity to locations of Cu and Pb–Zn mining regions in the Maritsa catchment. Downstream dispersal of solute metals in these catchments, and into the River Danube, was found to be limited by physical dilution and a well-buffered pH environment. Dispersal of contaminant metals in channel and floodplain sediment was found to be extensive. Contamination was particularly severe in the Rivers Timok and Iskar (Danube catchment) and the Topolnitsa, Chepelarska, and Arda Rivers (Maritsa catchment) and creates the potential of transboundary dispersal of contaminant metals.  相似文献   
992.
The adsorption of pentachlorophenol (PCP) from aqueous solutions using pristine multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was studied kinetically and thermodynamically. The results showed that MWCNTs are good adsorbents for the elimination of PCP from aqueous solutions in a very short time compared with activated charcoal. The kinetics study showed that the adsorption of PCP is mainly due to the diffusion of PCP from the aqueous phase to the solid phase beside intra-particle diffusion. This intra-particle diffusion was more significant for activated charcoal compared with MWCNTs. The equilibrium adsorption of PCP at different temperatures was studied, and the adsorption isotherms were well described using different adsorption models. Thermodynamics study showed that the adsorption process was product-favored (enhanced) as the temperature decreased.  相似文献   
993.
Yield and Price Forecasting for Stochastic Crop Decision Planning   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The primary objective of this paper is to develop yield and price forecasting models employed in informed crop decision planning—a key aspect of effective farm management. For yearly yield prediction, we introduce a weather-based regression model with time-dependent varying coefficients. In order to allow for within-year climate variations, we predict yearly crop yield using weekly temperature and rainfall summaries resulting in a large number of correlated predictors. To overcome this difficulty, we reduce the space of predictors to a small number of uncorrelated predictors using Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA). For detailed price forecasting, we develop a futures-based model for long-range cash price prediction. In this model, the cash price is predicted as a sum of the nearby settlement futures price and the predicted commodity basis. We predict the one-year commodity basis as a mixture of historical basis data using a functional model-based approach. In both forecasting models, we estimate approximate prediction confidence intervals that are further integrated in a decision planning model. We applied our methods to corn yield and price forecasting for Hancock County in Illinois. Our forecasting results are more accurate in comparison to predictions based on existing methods. The methods introduced in this paper generally apply to other locations in the US and other crop types. The supplemental materials for this article are available online.  相似文献   
994.
Roughly 90% of butterfly species live in the tropics. Despite this, we know very little about tropical butterfly ecology particularly when compared to temperate butterfly systems. The relative scarcity of data on tropical butterfly populations hampers our ability to effectively conserve them. In this review we summarize recurring themes from ecological research on tropical butterflies to serve as a framework for understanding their conservation. Key themes include: (1) the tropics represent the evolutionary origins of butterfly diversity, (2) while some tropical butterflies exhibit relatively stable population dynamics, longer-lived adult stages, and more continuous age-specific reproduction compared to temperate zone species, the generality of these patterns is debatable, and (3) complex species interactions (e.g. mimicry, parasitism and predation) can have significantly greater influences on ecological and evolutionary processes in tropical butterflies than in temperate ones. This state of ecological knowledge, combined with scarce resources, has traditionally constrained tropical butterfly conservation efforts to habitat level approaches, unlike the species- and population-specific approaches familiar in North America and Europe. Consequently, much conservation research on butterflies in the tropics has focused on the relationship between habitat quality (e.g. forest fragmentation) and butterfly diversity, though predictive patterns even in this regard remain elusive. We argue that with the increasing threats of habitat destruction, fragmentation and climate change, it is necessary to move beyond this diversity and habitat relationship if we are to improve predictive capabilities when evaluating anthropogenic impacts on tropical butterfly communities. Tropical butterflies are more than just useful indicator species. They represent some of the most spectacular and visually appealing organisms in the world and play many vital roles in tropical ecosystems. We hope that this synthesis will lay the groundwork for future ecological studies of tropical butterfly populations, species, communities and conservation.  相似文献   
995.
Development of soil structure and the dynamics of water stable aggregates (WSA) in many soils are known to be closely related to the cycling of soil organic matter. In some fine and medium textured soils particulate organic matter (POM) has been found to act as a nucleus for macroaggregate formation. However, this role of POM in aggregate formation has not been demonstrated in soils dominated by smectitic clay minerals. This study explored aggregation processes in a Vertisol from a semi-arid region in Northeastern Mexico in relation to the addition of 14C-labeled maize residues and application of wetting and drying cycles during 105 days of incubation. Fractionation of the WSA formed showed that labeled residues were preferentially accumulated in large macroaggregates (>2000 μm). Treatments with addition of organic residues had three to four times more intra-aggregate particulate organic matter (iPOM) in large macroaggregates than the control after 14 days of incubation. Residue-derived carbon accounted for 53% and 41% of the total carbon stored in the iPOM fraction in amended treatments with and without wetting and drying cycles, respectively. Conversely, residue-derived carbon represented <20% of the total carbon in the iPOM fraction from small macroaggregates (250-2000 μm) and microaggregates (53-250 μm). Results also showed that the amount and concentration of carbon per large macroaggregate did not differ between the large macroaggregates formed under wetting and drying and those formed in continuous moist conditions. However, due to formation of higher number of large macroaggregates per kg of soil, more carbon could be stored in amended soils under wetting and drying than in constantly wet soil: 1.4, 1.8 and 2.7 times more 14C kg−1 soil after 14, 58 and 105 incubation days, respectively. The results in this study suggest that wetting and drying enhanced protection of the added maize residues inside large macroaggregates by forming more aggregates, rather than by increasing the amount of POM entrapped per aggregate. Therefore, after the addition of organic residues, this soil could accumulate more C than continuous moist soil through the influence that wetting and drying has on soil aggregation.  相似文献   
996.
Measurements of local environmental conditions, intensity of Fusarium head blight (FHB) in wheat spikes, biomass of Fusarium graminearum, F. culmorum, and F. poae (pathogens causing FHB) and concentration of the mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) and nivalenol (NIV) in harvested wheat grain were obtained in a total of 150 location-years, originating in three European countries (Hungary, Ireland, United Kingdom) from 2001 to 2004. Through window-pane methodology, the length and starting time of temporal windows where the environmental variables were significantly associated with the biological variables were identified. Window lengths of 5 to 30?days were evaluated, with starting times from 18?days before anthesis to harvest. Associations were quantified with nonparametric Spearman correlation coefficients. All biological variables were significantly associated with at least one evaluated environmental variable (P?≤?0.05). Moisture-related variables (e.g., average relative humidity, hours of relative humidity above 80%) had the highest positive correlations with the biological variables, but there also was a significant negative correlation between average temperature and several biological variables. When significant correlations were found, they were generally for all window lengths, but for a limited number of window start times (generally before anthesis for disease index and after anthesis for the toxins and late-season fungal biomasses). Semi-partial Spearman correlation coefficients were used to evaluate the relationship between the environmental variables and the concentration of DON and NIV after the effects of FHB intensity and fungal biomass on the mycotoxins were removed. Significant semi-partial correlations were found between relative humidity variables and DON, and between temperature and relative humidity variables and NIV for time windows that started after anthesis (and not for any earlier time windows). Results confirm that the environment influences disease, fungal biomass, and mycotoxin production, and help refine the time windows where the association is greatest. However, variability in the relationships was high, indicating that no single environmental variable is sufficient for prediction of disease or mycotoxin contamination.  相似文献   
997.
Host resistance is the main way to control Fusarium head blight (FHB) in wheat. Despite improved levels of resistance to infection and spread in vegetative tissue, the toxin deoxynivalenol (DON) can still accumulate to unacceptable concentration levels. In this study, our objectives were to assess the genetic variation for resistance to kernel infection (RKI) and resistance to toxin accumulation (RTA) and their role in controlling DON. We collected spikes with different levels of visual symptoms from each of 32 wheat genotypes and at four environments and determined DON and fungal biomass (FB) from each sample. We assessed RKI by regressing FB on the level of visual symptoms and RTA by regressing DON on FB for each genotype. Significant genetic effects were found for RKI and RTA. Some genotypes consistently had low FB in their grain despite increasing visual symptoms suggesting RKI. Additionally, some genotypes consistently had low DON in their grain despite increasing FB levels suggesting a higher RTA in these genotypes. The variation for RKI and RTA explained a significant fraction of the variation for DON among genotypes with moderate visual symptoms using independent grain samples. Although RKI and RTA were significantly correlated (r = 0.58, P = 0.05), RTA was more predictive of DON accumulation because it modeled 32 to 44% of the genotype sum of squares for DON, while only 9 to 10% were predicted using RKI. Thus, variation for RTA was important in explaining variation for DON among genotypes with acceptable levels of resistance to fungal infection and spread. This work indicates that there is a need to develop a better understanding of RTA and rapid screening methods for this trait.  相似文献   
998.
Cross-spectral analysis was used to characterize the relationship between climate variability, represented by atmospheric patterns, and annual fluctuations of Fusarium head blight (FHB) disease intensity in wheat. Time series investigated were the Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI), which is a measure of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which are known to have strong influences on the Northern Hemisphere climate, and FHB disease intensity observations in Ohio from 1965 to 2010 and in Indiana from 1973 to 2008. For each climate variable, mean climate index values for the boreal winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) were utilized. The spectral density of each time series and the (squared) coherency of each pair of FHB-climate-index series were estimated. Significance for coherency was determined by a nonparametric permutation procedure. Results showed that winter and spring ONI were significantly coherent with FHB in Ohio, with a period of about 5.1 years (as well as for some adjacent periods). The estimated phase-shift distribution indicated that there was a generally negative relation between the two series, with high values of FHB (an indication of a major epidemic) estimated to occur about 1 year following low values of ONI (indication of a La Ni?a); equivalently, low values of FHB were estimated to occur about 1 year after high values of ONI (El Ni?o). There was also limited evidence that winter ONI had significant coherency with FHB in Indiana. At periods between 2 and 7 years, the PNA and NAO indices were coherent with FHB in both Ohio and Indiana, although results for phase shift and period depended on the specific location, climate index, and time span used in calculating the climate index. Differences in results for Ohio and Indiana were expected because the FHB disease series for the two states were not similar. Results suggest that global climate indices and models could be used to identify potential years with high (or low) risk for FHB development, although the most accurate risk predictions will need to be customized for a region and will also require use of local weather data during key time periods for sporulation and infection by the fungal pathogen.  相似文献   
999.
1000.
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