Risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticides using a Bayesian method   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Paulo MJ  van der Voet H  Jansen MJ  ter Braak CJ  van Klaveren JD 《Pest management science》2005,61(8):759-766

Risk assessment of pesticides can be a statistically difficult problem because pesticides occur only occasionally, but they may occur on multiple components in the diet. A Bayesian statistical model is presented which incorporates multivariate modelling of food consumption and modelling of pesticide measurements which are for a large part below a measurement threshold. It is shown that Bayesian modelling is feasible for a limited number of food components, and that in a data-rich situation the model compares well with an empirical Monte Carlo modelling.  相似文献   

SURVEYS OF RABBIT DAMAGE TO WHEAT IN ENGLAND AND WALES, 1950–52     

B. M. Church  F. H. Jacob  Harry V.  Thompson 《Plant pathology》1953,2(4):107-112

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Evaluation of the association between initial proteinuria and morbidity rate or death in dogs with naturally occurring chronic renal failure     

Jacob F  Polzin DJ  Osborne CA  Neaton JD  Kirk CA  Allen TA  Swanson LL 《Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association》2005,226(3):393-400

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UP:C) > or = 1.0 at initial diagnosis of chronic renal failure (CRF) is associated with greater risk of development of uremic crises, death, and progression of renal failure in dogs. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. ANIMALS: 45 dogs with CRF PROCEDURE: Dogs were prospectively assigned to 2 groups on the basis of initial UP:C < 1.0 or 2 > or = 1.0. The association between magnitude of proteinuria and development of uremic crises and death was determined before and after dogs with initial UP:C > or =1.0 were assigned to 3 subgroups and compared with dogs with initial UP:C < 1.0. Changes in reciprocal serum creatinine concentration were used to estimate decrease in renal function. RESULTS: Initially, dogs had similar clinical characteristics with the exception of systolic blood pressure and UP:C. Relative risks of development of uremic crises and death were approximately 3 times higher in dogs with UP:C > or =1.0, compared with dogs with UP:C < 1.0. Relative risk of adverse outcome was approximately 1.5 times higher for every 1-unit increment in UP:C. The decrease in renal function was of greater magnitude in dogs with UP:C > or =1.0, compared with dogs with UP:C < 1.0. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Initial UP:C > or =1.0 in dogs with CRF was associated with greater risk of development of uremic crises and death, compared with dogs with UP:C < 1.0. Initial determinations of UP:C in dogs with naturally occurring CRF may be of value in refining prognoses.  相似文献   

Factors affecting the phase-out of pesticide use in public areas in Denmark     

Kristoffersen P  Larsen SU  Møller J  Hels T 《Pest management science》2004,60(6):605-612

That pesticide use in public areas in Denmark has been significantly reduced during the period 1995 to 2002 is shown when comparing three surveys carried out by the Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute (DFLRI) with funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. During that period, the total registered public use of pesticides was reduced from 28.8 tonnes active ingredients to 6.3 tonnes, corresponding to a 78% reduction. In 2002, the Danish counties and state institutions had reduced their total pesticide use by 80% and 73%, respectively, compared to 1995 figures. Similarly, the Danish municipalities reduced their use by 83% from 1995 to 2002. Surveys of municipal pesticide use carried out in 1995, 2000 and 2002 have been used as the basis for determining the factors that have influenced municipal reductions of pesticide use. The 2000 and 2002 trends can be explained partly on the basis of the figures for 1995 use. The trend for 2002 can also be partially explained by the political parties in power in the municipalities during the phase-out period. The models used account for up to 30% of the total variations, meaning that the pesticide use of individual municipalities is very much influenced by other, non-definable factors such as tradition.  相似文献   

Serological evidence of akabane virus infection in northern Israel in 2001   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Brenner J  Tsuda T  Yadin H  Kato T 《The Journal of veterinary medical science / the Japanese Society of Veterinary Science》2004,66(4):441-443

In February 2002 the first cases of a "blind newborn calves" syndrome with hydranencephaly appeared in Israel. Eighty-one serum samples, from 54 animals on farms where the syndrome was recorded and 27 others from unaffected farms were examined by neutralization of Akabane virus (AKAV, strain OBE-1) by the micro-titer method. Forty-seven of the 54 samples from the affected farms contained high serum neutralization titers against AKAV (mean SN titer 79.5 and +/- 44.7, standard deviation), whereas only one of the 27 samples from the unaffected farms was positive (titer of 8). These results suggest that the vector(s) of AKAV was circulating in Israel in August through December, 2001.  相似文献   

Collagen fiber architecture of the periodontal ligament in equine cheek teeth     

Staszyk C  Wulff W  Jacob HG  Gasse H 《Journal of veterinary dentistry》2006,23(3):143-147

The objective of this study was to examine the spatial arrangement of the fiber apparatus of the equine periodontium which is supposed to meet two contrary requirements: (1) to attach the tooth firmly and elastically to the alveolar bone; and, to be appropriately remodeled and reconstructed in order to facilitate the prolonged eruption of the tooth. Specimens of periodontal ligament were obtained from the buccal and lingual/palatal aspects of the first molars from the maxilla and mandible of 12 horses. The animals were assigned to three age groups. Histological sections were prepared from three specific horizontal levels of the periodontal ligament and examined with conventional and polarized-light microscopy. At the gingival level, collagen fascicles (diameter > 200 microm) were densely packed. Their spatial alignment was the same in all age groups. The architecture of the collagen fiber apparatus differed at the middle and apical levels in the three age groups. There was a clear distinction between fibers, bundles, and fascicles. Bundling of collagen fibers, density of the fiber arrangement, and collagen fascicles with an alveolo-cemental orientation increased with age. The collagen fiber apparatus of the equine periodontal ligament is highly adaptive, responding continuously to the dynamic changes in the periodontal environment. Site-specific arrangements and age-dependent structural variations are assumed to maintain tooth support as the reserve crown gradually decreases in length with progressive dental attrition. Most of the age-dependent changes to the periodontal ligament in teeth examined in this study occurred at the apical level. The apical region of young teeth had no periodontal attachment, while the roots of older teeth were firmly attached to the alveolus. When evaluating periodontal ligament development, the individual tooth's 'dental age' should be considered rather than the animal's age to account for individual tooth eruption times.  相似文献   

Twenty year site preparation effects on sub-boreal lodgepole pine performance   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Jacob O. Boateng  Jean L. Heineman  Lorne Bedford  Amanda F. Linnell Nemec  John McClarnon  R. Allan Powelson 《New Forests》2012,43(4):457-472

We examined the effects of various mechanical site preparation methods and windrow burning on container-grown planted lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) survival and growth for 20?years after treatment at a sub-boreal site in north-central British Columbia, Canada. Survival was uniformly high (??80%) regardless of treatment, indicating that site preparation was not necessary to establish pine on this site. Significant treatment effects on height, diameter, and stem volume were present at all assessment dates, but only the windrow burning treatment was associated with growth gains over the untreated control after two decades. Pine planted at the disk trench hinge were significantly larger than control pine only until year five. Of the mechanical treatments, only coarse mixing (by bedding plow) continued to have a significant effect on pine growth for as many as 9?years after treatment. Despite the disappearance of significant differences between mechanical treatments and the untreated control by year 20, the magnitude of stand volume increases suggests the potential for mechanical site preparation to have a beneficial effect on future timber supply. Repeated measures analysis confirmed that trends in early diameter growth differed between the untreated control and the windrow burning or coarse mixing treatments. These data are also potentially valuable for verifying growth and yield or carbon budgeting modelling tools.  相似文献   

Modeling carbon allocation in trees: a search for principles     

Franklin O  Johansson J  Dewar RC  Dieckmann U  McMurtrie RE  Brännström A  Dybzinski R 《Tree physiology》2012,32(6):648-666

We review approaches to predicting carbon and nitrogen allocation in forest models in terms of their underlying assumptions and their resulting strengths and limitations. Empirical and allometric methods are easily developed and computationally efficient, but lack the power of evolution-based approaches to explain and predict multifaceted effects of environmental variability and climate change. In evolution-based methods, allocation is usually determined by maximization of a fitness proxy, either in a fixed environment, which we call optimal response (OR) models, or including the feedback of an individual's strategy on its environment (game-theoretical optimization, GTO). Optimal response models can predict allocation in single trees and stands when there is significant competition only for one resource. Game-theoretical optimization can be used to account for additional dimensions of competition, e.g., when strong root competition boosts root allocation at the expense of wood production. However, we demonstrate that an OR model predicts similar allocation to a GTO model under the root-competitive conditions reported in free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments. The most evolutionarily realistic approach is adaptive dynamics (AD) where the allocation strategy arises from eco-evolutionary dynamics of populations instead of a fitness proxy. We also discuss emerging entropy-based approaches that offer an alternative thermodynamic perspective on allocation, in which fitness proxies are replaced by entropy or entropy production. To help develop allocation models further, the value of wide-ranging datasets, such as FLUXNET, could be greatly enhanced by ancillary measurements of driving variables, such as water and soil nitrogen availability.  相似文献   

Germination in five shrub species of Maritime Pine understory—does seed provenance matter?     

Ana Vasques  Paula Maia  Mariana Pedro  Concei??o Santos  V. Ramón Vallejo  J. Jacob Keizer 《Annals of Forest Science》2012,69(4):499-507

? Context

Maritime Pine forests cover important mountain areas in Portugal and are known to be a particularly fire-prone forest type. Understory composition plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services after recurrent wildfires.

? Aims

This study aims to improve the knowledge on the germination ecology of understory species of Maritime Pine forests, focusing on the importance of seed provenance, including in relation to germination enhancement by heating.

? Methods

The selected species were Cistus ladanifer L., Erica australis L., Erica umbellata L., Pterospartum tridentatum L. (Willk), and Genista triacanthos Brot. Seeds were collected from two or three distant populations. Besides a control treatment, two heating regimes were applied, i.e., 100°C during 5?min and 80°C during 30?min.

? Results

Heating treatments significantly enhanced germination in four out of the five species. Differences between provenances were most evident for C. ladanifer and E. australis, especially following the heating treatments. Overall, the seeds from the southern provenances germinated better and, at the same time, were smaller.

? Conclusion

The present results confirmed that seed provenance should not be ignored as a key factor in germination ecology, so that further work is needed to untangle the roles of environmental and genetic factors in the observed differences between provenances.  相似文献   

Thymidine utilization abnormality in proliferating lymphocytes and hepatocytes of the woodchuck     

Maschke J  Menne S  Jacob JR  Kreuzfelder E  Tennant BC  Roggendorf M  Grosse-Wilde H 《Veterinary immunology and immunopathology》2001,78(3-4):279-296

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