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Moderate-sized earthquakes (Richter magnitude M(L) 5(1/2)) have occurred four times this century (1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966) on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield in central California. In many respects the June 1966 sequence was a remarkably detailed repetition of the June 1934 sequence, suggesting a recurring recognizable pattern of stress and fault zone behavior. 相似文献
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The parkfield, california, earthquake prediction experiment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment. 相似文献
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Bakun WH Clark MM Cockerham RS Ellsworth WL Lindh AG Prescott WH Shakal AF Spudich P 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》1984,225(4659):288-291
The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone. 相似文献
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Adverse feedback sequences in exploited marine systems: are deliberate interruptive actions warranted? 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Several mechanisms for self‐enhancing feedback instabilities in marine ecosystems are identified and briefly elaborated. It appears that adverse phases of operation may be abruptly triggered by explosive breakouts in abundance of one or more previously suppressed populations. Moreover, an evident capacity of marine organisms to accomplish extensive geographic habitat expansions may expand and perpetuate a breakout event. This set of conceptual elements provides a framework for interpretation of a sequence of events that has occurred in the Northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (off south‐western Africa). This history can illustrate how multiple feedback loops might interact with one another in unanticipated and quite malignant ways, leading not only to collapse of customary resource stocks but also to degradation of the ecosystem to such an extent that disruption of customary goods and services may go beyond fisheries alone to adversely affect other major global ecosystem concerns (e.g. proliferations of jellyfish and other slimy, stingy, toxic and/or noxious organisms, perhaps even climate change itself, etc.). The wisdom of management interventions designed to interrupt an adverse mode of feedback operation is pondered. Research pathways are proposed that may lead to improved insights needed: (i) to avoid potential ‘triggers’ that might set adverse phases of feedback loop operation into motion; and (ii) to diagnose and properly evaluate plausible actions to reverse adverse phases of feedback operation that might already have been set in motion. These pathways include the drawing of inferences from available ‘quasi‐experiments’ produced either by short‐term climatic variation or inadvertently in the course of biased exploitation practices, and inter‐regional applications of the comparative method of science. 相似文献
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Andrew Bakun 《Fish and Fisheries》2013,14(3):424-438
The conventional view of the reproductive ecology of bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis, Thunnus maccoyii) leads to a conceptual paradox. Simple arithmetic yields an expectation for wide variation in annual reproductive success. However, the historical record does not support this prediction. A conclusion would seem to be that a much stronger than usual density dependence must be acting. It is here argued that this strong density dependence may likely occur within small strongly convergent segments of energetically forced ocean eddy structures. Success of the implied ecological scenario requires spawning schools of sufficient size to generate sufficiently copious reproductive product to circumvent resident predator pits, while exerting sufficient predatory loss on resident predators to facilitate this circumvention. This in turn implies existence of a dangerous ‘precipice’ in the form of self‐enhancing feedback loop, lurking unperceived beyond the range of historical experience, and a need for a particular degree of precaution in managing the exploitation of this iconic species. 相似文献
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