Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand     

Timothée Vergne  Mathilde C. Paul  Wanida Chaengprachak  Benoit Durand  Marius Gilbert  Barbara Dufour  François Roger  Suwicha Kasemsuwan  Vladimir Grosbois 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2014

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.  相似文献   

Acquired resistance to the 16-membered macrolides tylosin and tilmicosin by Mycoplasma bovis     

Uri Lerner  Eytan Amram  Roger D. Ayling  Inna Mikula  Irena Gerchman  Shimon Harrus  Dina Teff  David Yogev  Inna Lysnyansky 《Veterinary microbiology》2014,168(2-4):365-371

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Perceived damage and areas of needed research for wildlife pests of California agriculture     

Roger A. BALDWIN  Terrell P. SALMON  Robert H. SCHMIDT  Robert M. TIMM 《Integrative zoology》2014,9(3):265-279

Many wildlife species cause extensive damage to a variety of agricultural commodities in California, with estimates of damage in the hundreds of millions annually. Given the limited availability of resources to solve all human–wildlife conflicts, we should focus management efforts on issues that provide the greatest benefit to agricultural commodities in California. This survey provides quantitative data on research needs to better guide future efforts in developing more effective, practical and appropriate methods for managing these species. We found that ground squirrels, pocket gophers, birds, wild pigs, coyotes and voles were the most common agricultural wildlife pest species in California. The damage caused by these species could be quite high, but varied by agricultural commodity. For most species, common forms of damage included loss of crop production and direct death of the plant, although livestock depredation was the greatest concern for coyotes. Control methods used most frequently and those deemed most effective varied by pest species, although greater advancements in control methods were listed as a top research priority for all species. Collectively, the use of toxicants, biocontrol and trapping were the most preferred methods for control, but this varied by species. In general, integrated pest management practices were used to control wildlife pests, with a special preference for those approaches that were efficacious and quick and inexpensive to apply. This information and survey design should be useful in establishing research and management priorities for wildlife pest species in California and other similar regions.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of Calanus helgolandicus in the English Channel     

Xabier Irigoien  Roger P. Harris 《Fisheries Oceanography》2003,12(4-5):317-326

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Effects of large woody debris removal on physical characteristics of a sand-bed river     

F. Douglas Shields  Roger H. Smith 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》1992,2(2):145-163

1. Removal of large woody debris (LWD) is one of the most widely practised stream alterations, particularly in sand-bed rivers of the south-eastern USA. Selective removal of LWD has been proposed as an alternative to orthodox non-selective clearing in order to conserve ecological resources, but methods for comparing hydraulic and environmental effects of selective and non-selective removal have not been developed. Conservation of stream habitats requires quantification of LWD removal impacts on physical habitat. 2. Physical characteristics of straightened, sand-bed reaches of the South Fork Obion River in western Tennessee, USA that were rich in LWD were compared with those in similar reaches where debris had recently been removed using selective removal guidelines. 3. The mean volume of LWD per unit water volume was 0.0545 in the uncleared reaches, but nearly 60% lower (0.0225) in the cleared reach. 4. A simple technique for predicting hydraulic roughness in channels with varying amounts of LWD was developed. Hydraulic roughness, as measured by the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor, was about 400% greater in uncleared reaches at base flow but declined to a level about 35% greater than for the cleared reaches at higher flows. Predicted friction factors were within 35% of measured friction factors at higher flows. 5. Physical habitat diversity in this channelized sand-bed stream was strongly related to the density of LWD. Flow conditions in the uncleared reaches were more heterogeneous than in the cleared reach, especially at low flow. At low flow, uncleared reaches tended to be shallower, have lower velocities, slightly finer bed material, and more heterogeneous conditions overall. Shannon indices based on depth and velocity were an average of 48% higher in uncleared reaches. 6. Bed sediments underneath and immediately adjacent to LWD formations were finer and contained more organic matter than sediments distant from LWD. However, when all bed samples were considered, organic content was positively correlated with median grain size.  相似文献   

Genetic improvement of farmed tilapias: Biochemical characterization of strain differences in Nile tilapia     

Julie M. Macaranas  Liza Q. Agustin  Ma. Carmen A. Ablan  Ma. Josefa R. Pante  Ambekar A. Eknath  Roger S. V. Pullin 《Aquaculture International》1995,3(1):43-54

Four African wild strains (Egypt, Ghana, Senegal and Kenya) and four established Asian farmed strains of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (popularly known in the Philippines as Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Israel) were analysed electrophoretically at 30 protein loci to estimate genetic differences among the strains. All strains shared alleles at 14 monomorphic and 16 variable loci. Among the African strains, characteristic allele frequency differences were observed at AAT-1 ^* 46 for Ghana and Senegal, ADH ^* 83 for Kenya, ADH ^* 120 for Senegal, G3PDH-2 ^* 300 for Egypt, IDDH ^* 67 for Senegal, sMDH-1 ^* 120 for Kenya and SOD ^* 150 for Senegal. Genetic distance values among the strains revealed a clustering of the farmed strains with Egypt and Ghana O. niloticus, a slight separation of the Senegal strain and a larger separation of the Kenya strain. This profile may reflect the origins of the few founder populations of this species previously introduced to Asia. It also confirms the wider genetic divergence of the Kenya strain (O. niloticus vulcani) from the others studied here, which are all O. n. niloticus. Observed heterozygosities of the strains ranged from 0.026 to 0.071, with the African wild strains the lower values (mean Ho = 0.036) and the farmed strains the higher ones (mean Ho = 0.056). The implications of these results to the ongoing tilapia genetic improvement programme in the Philippines are discussed.  相似文献   

Effects of temperature change rate on nitrogen effluxes of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (DeMan)     

AndréS.C. Schmitt  Roger F. Uglow 《Aquaculture (Amsterdam, Netherlands)》1996,140(4):373-381

Ammonia-N (NH4⁺ + NH³) and total nitrogen (TN) efflux rates of Macrobrachium rosenbergii were measured during stepwise temperature changes (26 °C → 22 °C → 18 °C → 22 °C → 26 °C) at different rates. Sudden temperature reductions did not affect efflux rates, but sudden temperature rises evoked rapid and high increases in the efflux rates. A direct relationship between ammonia-N excretion and water temperature was observed when gradual temperature changes were effected over a 5 h period. When the animals were acclimated to a new temperature for 72 h, no clear effects of temperature on the efflux rates were found. Sudden temperature changes resulted in an increased proportion of ammonia-N in the total nitrogen excreted. It is suggested that temperature changes during the shipment of M. rosenbergii should be avoided or made gradually.  相似文献   

Validation of the otolith increment deposition ratio using alizarin marks in juveniles of the sparid fishes, Diplodus vulgaris and D. puntazzo     

Roger Villanueva  Balbina Molí 《Fisheries Research》1997,30(3):257-260

Deposition rate of otolith increments was validated by two immersions in alizarin complexone 10 days apart in juvenile Diplodus vulgaris and D. puntazzo. Alizarin complexone produced a well-defined scarlet band on the otoliths of all individuals. One increment:one day ratio was found for both species.  相似文献   

Resolvin D1, a Metabolite of Omega-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid,Decreases Post-Myocardial Infarct Depression     

Kim Gilbert  Judith Bernier  Roger Godbout  Guy Rousseau 《Marine drugs》2014,12(11):5396-5407

We hypothesized that inflammation induced by myocardial ischemia plays a central role in depression-like behavior after myocardial infarction (MI). Several experimental approaches that reduce inflammation also result in attenuation of depressive symptoms. We have demonstrated that Resolvin D1 (RvD1), a metabolite of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) derived from docosahexaenoic acid, diminishes infarct size and neutrophil accumulation in the ischemic myocardium. The aim of this study is to determine if a single RvD1 injection could alleviate depressive symptoms in a rat model of MI. MI was induced in rats by occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery for 40 min. Five minutes before ischemia or after reperfusion, 0.1 μg of RvD1 or vehicle was injected in the left ventricle cavity. Fourteen days after MI, behavioral tests (forced swim test and socialization) were conducted to evaluate depression-like symptoms. RvD1 reduced infarct size in the treated vs. the vehicle group. Animals receiving RvD1 also showed better performance in the forced swim and social interaction tests vs. vehicle controls. These results indicate that a single RvD1 dose, given 5 min before occlusion or 5 min after the onset of reperfusion, decreases infarct size and attenuates depression-like symptoms.  相似文献   

Flor Revisited(Again):eQTL and Mutational Analysis of NB-LRR Mediated Immunity to Powdery Mildew in Barley     

Roger Wise  Priyanka Surana  Greg Fuerst  Ruo Xu  Divya Mistry  Julie Dickerson  Dan Nettleton 《中国农业科学(英文版)》2014,(2):237-243

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