排序方式： 共有13条查询结果，搜索用时 0 毫秒
11.
12.
ABSTRACT Spatial and temporal dynamics of late blight were investigated from color, infrared aerial photographs of five commercial potato fields in the Columbia Basin during epidemics in 1993, 1995, and 1998. Aerial photographs were taken one to four times at 6- to 21-day intervals. Photographs were scanned and pixels, representing approximately 1 m(2) in the field, were used in the analysis. Late blight-infected plants were aggregated as indicated by runs analysis. Significant z-tests were computed for four directions during each sampling date in each of the five fields. Absolute z-values for runs analysis increased, indicating increasing aggregation in the four directions, as disease incidence increased in the early and midphases of the epidemics in each field. Variograms indicated the existence of autocorrelation among infected plants in four directions; the range of influence increased as disease incidence increased except at the highest levels of disease. Late blight was observed to spread in fields as foci. Late blight foci enlarged in size, produced distinct daughter foci, and coalesced. A field where initial inoculum likely originated from infected seed tubers exhibited less initial aggregation than the other fields, perhaps due to a different source of primary inoculum. Aerial photography coupled with spatial analyses of late blight-infected plants was an effective technique to quantitatively assess disease patterns in relatively large fields and was useful in quantifying an intensification of aggregation during the epidemic process on a large scale. 相似文献
13.
Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Riley S Fraser C Donnelly CA Ghani AC Abu-Raddad LJ Hedley AJ Leung GM Ho LM Lam TH Thach TQ Chau P Chan KP Lo SV Leung PY Tsang T Ho W Lee KH Lau EM Ferguson NM Anderson RM 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2003,300(5627):1961-1966
We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission. 相似文献