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211.
Microbial communities play a pivotal role in soil nutrient cycling, which is affected by nitrogen loading on soil fungi and particularly mycorrhizal fungi. In this experiment, we evaluated the effects of allochthonous nitrogen addition on soil bacteria and fungi in two geographically distinct but structurally similar scrub oak forests, one in Florida (FL) and one in New Jersey (NJ). We applied allochthonous nitrogen as aqueous NH4NO3 in three concentrations (0 kg ha−1 yr−1 (deionized water control), 35 kg ha−1 yr−1 and 70 kg ha−1 yr−1) via monthly treatments over the course of 1 yr. We applied treatments to replicated 1 m2 plots, each at the base of a reference scrub oak tree (Quercus myrtifolia in FL and Q. ilicifolia in NJ). We measured microbial community response by monitoring: bacterial and fungal biomass using substrate induced respiration, and several indicators of community composition, including colony and ectomycorrhizal morphotyping and molecular profiling using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP). Bacterial colony type richness responded differently to nitrogen treatment in the different sites, but ectomycorrhizal morphotype richness was not affected by nitrogen or location. Both experimental sites were dominated by fungi, and FL consistently supported more bacterial and fungal biomass than NJ. Bacterial biomass responded to nitrogen addition, but only in FL. Fungal biomass did not respond significantly to nitrogen addition at either experimental site. The composition of the bacterial community differed between nitrogen treatments and experimental sites, while the composition of the fungal community did not. Our results imply that bacterial communities may be more sensitive than fungi to intense pulses of nitrogen in sandy soils.  相似文献   
212.
Quantifying the historical range and variability of landscape composition and structure using simulation modeling is becoming an important means of assessing current landscape condition and prioritizing landscapes for ecosystem restoration. However, most simulated time series are generated using static climate conditions which fail to account for the predicted major changes in future climate. This paper presents a simulation study that generates reference landscape compositions for all combinations of three climate scenarios (warm-wet, hot-dry, and current) and three fire regime scenarios (half historical, historical, and double historical fire frequencies) to determine if future climate change has an effect on landscape dynamics. We applied the spatially explicit, state-and-transition, landscape fire succession model LANDSUM to two large landscapes in west-central Montana, USA. LANDSUM was parameterized and initialized using spatial data generated from the LANDFIRE prototype project. Biophysical settings, critical spatial inputs to LANDSUM, were empirically modeled across the landscape using environmental gradients created from historical and modeled future climate daily weather data summaries. Successional pathways and disturbance probabilities were assigned to these biophysical settings based on existing field data and extensive literature reviews. To assess the impact of changes in climate and fire regime, we compared simulated area burned and landscape composition over time among the different simulation scenario combinations using response variables of Sorenson's index (a global measure of similarity) and area occupied by the dominant vegetation class (simple indicator of change in landscape composition). Results show that simulated time series using future predicted climate scenarios are significantly different from the simulated historical time series and any changes in the fire regime tend to create more dissimilar and more variable simulated time series. Our study results indicate that historical time series should be used in conjunction with simulated future time series as references for managing landscapes.  相似文献   
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Key message

Natural disturbance can disrupt the anticipated delivery of forest-related ecosystem goods and services. Model predictions of natural disturbances have substantial uncertainties arising from the choices of input data and spatial scale used in the model building process, and the uncertainty of future climate conditions which are a major driver of disturbances. Quantifying the multiple contributions to uncertainty will aid decision making and guide future research needs.

Context

Forest management planning has been able, in the past, to rely on substantial empirical evidence regarding tree growth, succession, frequency and impacts of natural disturbances to estimate the future delivery of goods and services. Uncertainty has not been thought large enough to warrant consideration. Our rapidly changing climate is casting that empirical knowledge in doubt.

Aims

This paper describes how models of future spruce budworm outbreaks are plagued by uncertainty contributed by (among others): selection of data used in the model building process; model error; and uncertainty of the future climate and forest that will drive the future insect outbreak. The contribution of each to the total uncertainty will be quantified.

Methods

Outbreak models are built by the multivariate technique of reduced rank regression using different datasets. Each model and an estimate of its error are then used to predict future outbreaks under different future conditions of climate and forest composition. Variation in predictions is calculated, and the variance is apportioned among the model components that contributed to the epistemic uncertainty in predictions.

Results

Projections of future outbreaks are highly uncertain under the range of input data and future conditions examined. Uncertainty is not uniformly distributed spatially; the average 75% confidence interval for outbreak duration is 10 years. Estimates of forest inventory for model building and choice of climate scenario for projections of future climate had the greatest contributions to predictions of outbreak duration and severity.

Conclusion

Predictions of future spruce budworm outbreaks are highly uncertain. More precise outbreak data with which to build a new outbreak model will have the biggest impact on reducing uncertainty. However, an uncertain future climate will continue to produce uncertainty in outbreak projections. Forest management strategies must, therefore, include alternatives that present a reasonable likelihood of achieving acceptable outcomes over a wide range of future conditions.
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Increasing nut production through cultural practices is important to landowners for maximizing economic gain from agroforestry plantings. This project studied the effects of applying low rates of nitrogen (N) fertilizer during either the spring or late summer, on pistillate flowers formed, fruits retained, and fruit quality (percentage kernel) in black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) grown under alley cropping management. Treatments consisted of two forms of nitrogen fertilizers (NH4NO3 and NaNO3) applied in mid-April, or mid-August of 1995 and 1996, and a nonfertilized control group. Pistillate flowers counted in May, 1996, showed that fertilized trees, regardless of timing or form of N applied, produced from 2.3 to 3.4 times the number of pistillate flowers as unfertilized control trees. Through the season, the fertilized trees had greater fruit retention, and ended with 2.9 to 4.8 times more walnuts (on a whole tree basis) than nonfertilized control trees. In addition, all fertilizer treatments resulted in increased nut yields from 1995 to 1996, while unfertilized control tree yields decreased approximately 70%. Summer application of fertilizer showed the greatest benefit to kernel weight. Average kernel weights of nuts from the summer-fertilized trees increased from 1995 to 1996, while kernel weight averages from spring-fertilized and nonfertilized trees remained unchanged or decreased. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
217.
There is international recognition for greater inclusion of recreational fisheries catch data in species, fisheries and ecosystem assessments. Recreational charter fisheries provide important social services and contribute to total species catches. This study compares and validates industry logbook catch and effort data (1,357 trips) against observer data (154 trips) across six ports in a recreational charter fishery in eastern Australia. The mean numbers of clients and fishing effort (hours) per trip varied inconsistently between data sources and among ports. Logbooks did not adequately report released catches, and the mean number of species retained per trip was consistently underestimated in logbooks compared to observer data. For both data sources, catch rates of total individuals and key species displayed similar trends across different units of effort; catch per hour, client, client/hour and trip. The mean catch rates of total individuals and most key species, except those retained for bait, were similar across data sources, as were estimates of total fleet harvests. The length compositions of retained catches of some key species displayed truncation of larger organisms in the observer data whereas other species did not. Despite the shortcomings of the logbook data, future fishery and species monitoring strategies could include industry and observer data sources.  相似文献   
218.
Microscopic techniques were used to determine accessible regions in various starches under different swelling conditions. Fatty acyl chlorides of increasing chain length (C6–C16) were reacted with 2‐aminopyridine to produce the corresponding fatty acyl amides. Starch granules (common corn, waxy maize, potato) were treated with the series of fluorescent amides under a variety of conditions: anhydrous (hot pyridine), aqueous (no heat), and aqueous alkali (49°C, with and without swelling‐inhibiting salts). Isolated granules were then viewed by confocal laser scanning microscopy to determine reagent analog penetration. All populations of granules were heterogeneous with respect to fatty acyl amide penetration, but general patterns could be discerned. Observations also indicated that the area surrounding the hilum was more easily penetrated than was the rest of the granule matrix. No substantial differences in penetration of the fluorescent fatty acyl amides as the chain length increased (C6–C16 was observed in hot pyridine‐swollen common corn starch granules. Common corn and potato starch granules swollen in room temperature water showed cutoffs for granular exclusion at C14 and C12, respectively. Common corn, waxy maize, and potato starch granules treated under industrial etherification conditions (heat, pH ≈ 11, swelling‐inhibiting salts) were less accessible to C6, C8, and C10 fluorescent amides when sodium citrate was present than when sodium sulfate was used, and less accessible in either case than in water alone or in hot anhydrous pyridine. However, appreciable differences between inhibition by sodium sulfate and sodium citrate were not observed in every case.  相似文献   
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