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A comparison of methods to estimate the prevalence of ovine Johne's infection from pooled faecal samples 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
OBJECTIVE: To compare estimates of ovine Johne's infection prevalence produced by several alternate methods based on pooled faecal culture (PFC) results with prevalence estimates based on individual faecal culture (IFC). PROCEDURE: Seven methods for estimating prevalence of infection based on PFC results were incorporated in a computer program, including methods for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity, for variable pool size and a Bayesian method that incorporates prior knowledge about test performance and prevalence. These methods were then used to analyse PFC data at one observation 30 months post-vaccination in a field trial of a killed vaccine for the control of OJD, undertaken on three farms in New South Wales. RESULTS: Prevalence estimates, for three methods that assume a perfect test, were close to the IFC estimate, whereas for three other methods that assume an imperfect test, the estimated prevalence was generally higher than the IFC estimate. In comparison, the Bayesian approach produced more variable estimates that were substantially higher than the IFC estimate when an inappropriately high prior estimate of prevalence was used. CONCLUSION: Despite the limitations of each method, two methods provided accurate and reasonable estimates of the prevalence assessed by IFC in all instances, and are appropriate for the analysis of data from this vaccine trial. One of these methods also has the advantage of allowing for variable pool size. However, further research is needed to develop a method that will simultaneously account for variation in pool size and in test sensitivity and specificity. 相似文献
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Yang ZW Li JA Yang MH Feng YS Tang Z Dai XS Wang HY Yin QQ Gao Y Li J He XL Zhang Y An Q 《Research in veterinary science》2005,79(2):149-154
OBJECTIVES: To compare blood counts between arterial and venous blood to and from visceral organs and indirectly look into the function of the organs. METHODS: Splenic, renal and superior mesenteric arterial and venous blood samples were obtained from the arteries and veins in 38 post-pubertal rabbits and blood profile, including complete and differential blood counts, haemoglobin concentration and haematocrit, were measured with an automatic haematology analyser. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The rabbit spleen released a large amount of leucocytes (both lymphocytes and granulocytes) into the splenic venous blood (a venous increase of 33% in total leucocyte count), and also received more leucocytes (36-58% more in terms of concentration) from the artery than the kidney or intestine. Significantly fewer red blood cells were present in the renal venous blood than in the arterial blood (a venous reduction of 5% in erythrocyte count), but it remains to be clarified why and how the reduction was induced. More than 3-4% of water might be taken into the mesenteric venous blood during microcirculation (a venous reduction of 3-4% in erythrocyte-related parameters) and a significant number of leucocytes (mainly large leucocytes) in the mesenteric blood capillaries might migrate into the surrounding intestinal tissue (a venous reduction of 13% in leucocyte count). 相似文献
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OBJECTIVE: To develop an enterprise gross margin (GM) model that predicts the on-farm financial impact of ovine Johne's disease (OJD) for various sheep enterprises in Australia. In addition, to estimate the benefits and costs of control through the use of the Gudair vaccination, including a breakeven point. DESIGN AND POPULATION: Data for the model was gained from an observational study conducted over a 3-year period from 2002 to 2004 using sheep from 12 OJD-infected flocks from southern New South Wales. Flocks ranged between 3500 and 20,000 sheep, with owner estimates of 5% or greater OJD mortality at the start of the study. PROCEDURE: A GM model was developed to predict the on-farm financial impact of OJD for various sheep enterprises in Australia, comparing non-infected, infected (status quo) and infected (vaccination) disease scenarios. RESULTS: Vaccination breakeven points are achieved within 2 to 3 years for breeding enterprises if OJD mortalities are high, rising towards 7 years for a Merino ewe enterprise if OJD mortalities are low. CONCLUSION: The GM model demonstrates the returns to investment of vaccination for Australian sheep producers with OJD-infected flocks. 相似文献
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Zwijnenberg RJ Smythe LD Symonds MI Dohnt MF Toribio JA 《Australian veterinary journal》2008,86(8):317-323
OBJECTIVE: To measure the prevalence of canine leptospirosis in Queensland and to detect infection, if present, in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory by measuring the serological titres of dogs held in animal shelters. PROCEDURE: Samples were collected through stratified sampling from multiple dog shelters in Queensland and New South Wales, and from one dog shelter located in close proximity to a major urban area in Victoria, South Australia, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. All samples were analysed using the microscopic agglutination test at the WHO/FAO/OIE Collaborating Centre for Reference & Research on Leptospirosis, Queensland Health Scientific Services in Brisbane, Queensland. RESULTS: Of a total of 956 samples submitted, 18 (1.9%) had positive leptospirosis titres. True prevalence measured in Queensland was estimated to be 2.5%, and the true prevalence in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory was estimated to be 2.3%, 2.8%, 0%, 1% and 1.1% respectively. An association was found between seropositive status and female dogs (odds ratio (OR) 1.92) and seropositive status and the age group 1 to < 3 years (OR 1.41). Although 11 different serovars were detected, Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni was the most prevalent and was found in 4 of the 18 positive dogs as a single infection. CONCLUSION: Serological evidence of canine leptospirosis in five states in mainland Australia indicates that the disease is more broadly distributed than previously thought. 相似文献
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Navneet K. Dhand Wesley O. Johnson Jenny-Ann L. M. L. Toribio 《Journal of Agricultural, Biological & Environmental Statistics》2010,15(4):452-473
This paper describes a Bayesian approach to prevalence estimation based on pooled samples that accommodates variation in pool
size and adjusts for test imperfection. A logistic model was developed for pooled fecal culture (PFC) sensitivity as a function
of pool size and a logistic mixed model for ovine Johne’s disease (OJD) prevalence as a function of covariates that were found
significant in a recent OJD risk factor study conducted in Australia. Available data on these factors and prior information
about prevalence and sensitivity were incorporated into a Bayesian model to estimate OJD prevalence from PFC data. Overall,
posterior cohort OJD prevalence was estimated to be 0.16 (range of prevalences across cohorts 0.002 to 0.72). The average
prevalence was higher in wethers than ewes. PFC sensitivities for pool sizes 10, 30 and 50 were estimated to be 0.91 (95%
probability intervals 0.80, 0.96), 0.85 (0.80, 0.90) and 0.77 (0.65, 0.88), respectively. Posterior specificity of PFC was
almost perfect though based primarily on the prior. Results suggest the Bayesian model successfully estimated the animal-level
prevalence after accounting for variable pool size and imperfect test parameters. The method can be easily adapted for other
conditions and diseases where pooled samples are collected. WinBugs code for the article is available online. 相似文献
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Schemann K Firestone SM Taylor MR Toribio JA Ward MP Dhand NK 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2012,106(2):97-107
Following the first ever equine influenza outbreak in Australia in 2007, a study was conducted involving 200 horse owners and managers to determine their perceptions about effectiveness of biosecurity measures and the factors associated with these perceptions. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with horse owners/managers to obtain information about their perceptions of the effectiveness of biosecurity practices, their sources of information about infection control during the outbreak and their horse industry involvement. Two outcome variables were created from horse owners' responses to a 17-item question on the perceived effectiveness of various recommended equine influenza biosecurity measures: (a) a binary outcome variable (Low/High biosecurity effectiveness) and (b) a continuous outcome variable (the proportion of the 17 measures considered 'very effective'). These outcomes were used in binomial logistic and linear regression analyses, respectively, to determine factors associated with perceptions of biosecurity effectiveness. Variables with a p-value <0.05 in multivariable models were retained in the final models. The majority (83%) of the 200 horse owners and managers interviewed believed that more than half of the recommended equine influenza biosecurity measures were very effective for protecting their horses from equine influenza infection in the event of a future outbreak. Interviewees that were more likely to judge on-farm biosecurity measures as effective were those who received infection control information from a veterinarian during the outbreak, did not experience equine influenza infection in their horses, and those on small acreage premises (homes with horses on site). Greater levels of preparedness for a future equine influenza outbreak and greater interest in information about infection control were associated with a better perception about effectiveness of biosecurity measures. This study identified factors associated with horse owners' and managers' perception of effectiveness of biosecurity measures. These findings should be considered in the design of infection control programs. 相似文献
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