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51.
The survival of fish eggs and larvae, and therefore recruitment success, can be critically affected by transport in ocean currents. Combining a model of early‐life stage dispersal with statistical stock–recruitment models, we investigated the role of larval transport for recruitment variability across spatial scales for the population complex of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). By using a coupled physical–biological model, we estimated the egg and larval transport over a 44‐year period. The oceanographic component of the model, capable of capturing the interannual variability of temperature and ocean current patterns, was coupled to the biological component, an individual‐based model (IBM) that simulated the cod eggs and larvae development and mortality. This study proposes a novel method to account for larval transport and success in stock–recruitment models: weighting the spawning stock biomass by retention rate and, in the case of multiple populations, their connectivity. Our method provides an estimate of the stock biomass contributing to recruitment and the effect of larval transport on recruitment variability. Our results indicate an effect, albeit small, in some populations at the local level. Including transport anomaly as an environmental covariate in traditional stock–recruitment models in turn captures recruitment variability at larger scales. Our study aims to quantify the role of larval transport for recruitment across spatial scales, and disentangle the roles of temperature and larval transport on effective connectivity between populations, thus informing about the potential impacts of climate change on the cod population structure in the North Sea.  相似文献   
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Decisions about recreational beach closures would be enhanced if better estimates of surfzone contaminant transport and dilution were available. In situ methods for measuring fluorescent Rhodamine WT dye tracer in the surfzone are presented, increasing the temporal and spatial resolution over previous surfzone techniques. Bubbles and sand suspended by breaking waves in the surfzone interfere with in situ optical fluorometer dye measurements, increasing the lower bound for dye detection (≈ 1 ppb) and reducing (quenching) measured dye concentrations. Simultaneous turbidity measurements are used to estimate the level of bubble and sand interference and correct dye estimates. After correction, root-mean-square dye concentration errors are estimated to be <?5% of dye concentration magnitude, thus demonstrating the viability of in situ surfzone fluorescent dye measurements. The surfzone techniques developed here may be applicable to other environments with high bubble and sand concentrations (e.g., cascading rivers and streams).  相似文献   
54.
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony type (MmmSC) has been eradicated in the developed world, but it is still present in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa. After initially successful control measures in the 1960s it has been spreading due to a lack of money, fragmentation of veterinary services, uncontrolled cattle movement, insufficient vaccine efficacy and sensitivity of current diagnostic tests.In this study we used two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis followed by immunoblot with sera from MmmSC-infected animals and MALDI-ToF mass spectrometry to identify novel immunogenic proteins as candidate molecules for improved diagnostics and vaccines. We identified 24 immunogens recognized by pooled sera from experimentally infected cattle. Furthermore, a serum from an animal with acute clinical disease as well as severe pathomorphological lesions recognized 13 additional immunogens indicating variation in the antibody responses to CBPP amongst cattle. Most immunogens showed compelling similarity to protein/gene sequences in the two ruminant pathogens M. capricolum subsp. capricolum and M. mycoides subsp. mycoides large colony type both belonging to the mycoides cluster. Three of these proteins, namely glycerol-3-phosphate oxidase, adenylosuccinate synthase, and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase, had no compelling homologue in the other distantly related bovine pathogen M. agalactiae. In addition, translation elongation factor Tu, heat shock protein 70, pyruvate dehydrogenase, and FKBP-type peptidyl-prolyl isomerase, which have been found to mediate adhesion to host tissue in other mycoplasmas were shown to be expressed and recognized by sera. These proteins have potential for the development of improved diagnostic tests and possibly vaccines.  相似文献   
55.
Deterministic simulation models are used to understand environmental processes and guide policy development by decision makers. In order to make informed decisions, uncertainty about input and output of these models needs to be incorporated into the modeling. We use a method known as Bayesian melding to quantify the uncertainty in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an important component of water quality models. This technique allows for this uncertainty through prior distributions on both the input parameters and the outcomes of interest. There have been relatively few applications of this methodology to complex problems and none to date in soil loss modelling. Moreover, land based spatial data, which are now commonly available in environmental research as well as many other disciplines, have not previously been used to inform Bayesian melding. The results demonstrate that the slope steepness factor of the RUSLE is the main contributor to total uncertainty. We conclude that Bayesian melding provides a good method for exploring the sources of uncertainty in a deterministic model.  相似文献   
56.
White spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) is a dominant species in late-successional ecosystems along the Tanana River, interior Alaska, and the most important commercial timber species in these boreal floodplain forests. Whereas white spruce commonly seed in on young terraces in early primary succession, the species does not become a conspicuous component of the vegetation until after 60–80 years. To address what abiotic and/or biotic factors may explain the paucity of spruce in earlier stages of succession, we examined germination and growth of planted white spruce seedlings across an environmental gradient that included variation in soil physico-chemical properties in the presence and absence of mammal browsing. The effect of browsing pressure over the first four years after planting was most noticeable on the older terraces. Likewise, direct effects of hare browsing on spruce seedling mortality were only manifested at the oldest sites. Spruce germination and survival was inversely proportional to soil cation concentrations, which was largely controlled by temperature-driven evapotranspiration. High light intensities and high air temperatures significantly reduced seedling growth, whereas variation in soil moisture only explained a significant amount of variation in seedling survival. Temperatures within the needle clusters on terminal shoots reached values that adversely affect photosynthesis (>32 °C) on multiple occasions over the growing season. We conclude that the direct (temperature) and indirect (soil chemistry) effects of high insolation are major factors constraining spruce performance on early successional terraces, and that these effects can be significantly exacerbated by mammal browsing on associated deciduous vegetation.  相似文献   
57.

Key message

Static site indices determined from stands’ top height are derived from different forest inventory sources with height and age information and thus enable comparisons and modeling of a species’ productivity encompassing large environmental gradients.

Context

Estimating forest site productivity under changing climate requires models that cover a wide range of site conditions. To exploit different inventory sources, we need harmonized measures and procedures for the productive potential. Static site indices (SI) appear to be a good choice.

Aims

We propose a method to derive static site indices for different inventory designs and apply it to six tree species of the German and French National Forest Inventory (NFI). For Norway spruce and European beech, the climate dependency of SI is modeled in order to estimate trends in productivity due to climate change.

Methods

Height and age measures are determined from the top diameters of a species at a given site. The SI is determined for a reference age of 100 years.

Results

The top height proves as a stable height measure that can be derived harmoniously from German and French NFI. The boundaries of the age-height frame are well described by the Chapman-Richards function. For spruce and beech, generalized additive models of the SI against simple climate variables lead to stable and plausible model behavior.

Conclusion

The introduced methodology permits a harmonized quantification of forest site productivity by static site indices. Predicting productivity in dependence on climate illustrates the benefits of combined datasets.
  相似文献   
58.
59.
Herbage feeding with only little input of concentrates plays an important role in milk production in grassland dominated countries like Switzerland. The objective was to investigate the effects of a solely herbage‐based diet and level of milk production on performance, and variables related to the metabolic, endocrine and inflammatory status to estimate the stress imposed on dairy cows. Twenty‐five multiparous Holstein cows were divided into a control (C+, = 13) and a treatment group (C?, = 12), according to their previous lactation yield (4679–10 808 kg) from week 3 ante partum until week 8 post‐partum (p.p.). While C+ received fresh herbage plus additional concentrate, no concentrate was fed to C? throughout the experiment. Within C+ and C?, the median of the preceding lactation yields (7752 kg) was used to split cows into a high (HYC+, HYC?)‐ and low‐yielding (LYC+, LYC?) groups. Throughout the study, HYC+ had a higher milk yield (35.9 kg/d) compared to the other subgroups (27.2–31.7 kg/d, p < 0.05). Plasma glucose (3.51 vs. 3.72 mmol/l) and IGF‐1 (66.0 vs. 78.9ng/mL) concentrations were lower in HYC?/LYC? compared to HYC+/LYC+ cows (p < 0.05). Plasma FFA and BHBA concentrations were dramatically elevated in HYC? (1.1 and 1.6 mmol/l) compared to all other subgroups (mean values: 0.5 and 0.6 mmol/l, p < 0.05). Saliva cortisol, plasma concentrations of serum amyloid A (SAA), haptoglobin (Hp), beta‐endorphin (BE) and activity of alkaline phosphatase (AP) were not different between C+ and C?. In conclusion, herbage‐fed high‐yielding cows without supplementary concentrate experienced a high metabolic load resulting in a reduced performance compared to cows of similar potential fed accordingly. Low‐yielding cows performed well without concentrate supplementation. Interestingly, the selected markers for inflammation and stress such as cortisol, Hp, SAA, BE and AP gave no indication for the metabolic load being translated into compromised well‐being.  相似文献   
60.
The threat posed by invasive alien species to global crop production and biodiversity is recognized as one of the major drivers of global change today. Here we report on a successful implementation and operational use of new technology to support risk- and crisis management in the case of fighting an invasive plant disease. The open geospatial standards Web Feature Service Transaction (WFS-T) was implemented in software for GPS-enabled mobile phones communicating with a GeoServer backend in order to track down and eradicate disease outbreaks and susceptible host plants. This new technology offering georeferenced events online from field provides new possibilities for real time action in risk and crisis management.  相似文献   
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