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Timothée Vergne Mathilde C. Paul Wanida Chaengprachak Benoit Durand Marius Gilbert Barbara Dufour François Roger Suwicha Kasemsuwan Vladimir Grosbois 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2014
Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts. 相似文献
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Tim J Bull Christina Vrettou Richard Linedale Catherine McGuinnes Sam Strain Jim McNair Sarah C Gilbert Jayne C Hope 《Veterinary research》2014,45(1)
Vaccination is the most cost effective control measure for Johne’s disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) but currently available whole cell killed formulations have limited efficacy and are incompatible with the diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis by tuberculin skin test. We have evaluated the utility of a viral delivery regimen of non-replicative human Adenovirus 5 and Modified Vaccinia virus Ankara recombinant for early entry MAP specific antigens (HAV) to show protection against challenge in a calf model and extensively screened for differential immunological markers associated with protection. We have shown that HAV vaccination was well tolerated, could be detected using a differentiation of infected and vaccinated animals (DIVA) test, showed no cross-reactivity with tuberculin and provided a degree of protection against challenge evidenced by a lack of faecal shedding in vaccinated animals that persisted throughout the 7 month infection period. Calves given HAV vaccination had significant priming and boosting of MAP derived antigen (PPD-J) specific CD4+, CD8+ IFN-γ producing T-cell populations and, upon challenge, developed early specific Th17 related immune responses, enhanced IFN-γ responses and retained a high MAP killing capacity in blood. During later phases post MAP challenge, PPD-J antigen specific IFN-γ and Th17 responses in HAV vaccinated animals corresponded with improvements in peripheral bacteraemia. By contrast a lack of IFN-γ, induction of FoxP3+ T cells and increased IL-1β and IL-10 secretion were indicative of progressive infection in Sham vaccinated animals. We conclude that HAV vaccination shows excellent promise as a new tool for improving control of MAP infection in cattle.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-014-0112-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献88.
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