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961.
Performance of WATCOM (a numerical model) and CRPSM (a simple water balance model) were assessed in simulating root zone water storage and water balance components under cowpea in Nigeria using a line source sprinkler system. Three sets of field data were collected: the first was used for calibration and model parameters’ estimation and the other two for testing and comparisons. The simulated soil water storage and crop evapotranspiration with WATCOM and CRPSM were in good agreement with field-measured data though WATCOM performed significantly better (P < 0.05) under the stressed condition. The maximum average error between predicted and measured soil water storage was −0.95 and +1.47 mm for WATCOM and CRPSM, respectively, while that between measured and predicted actual crop evapotranspiration was +2.7 and +11.38 mm, respectively, for the two models. WATCOM gave generally higher cumulative deep percolation and lower evapotranspiration than that of CRPSM for all irrigation levels (P < 0.05), and values of deep percolation for WATCOM were in better agreement with field data than that of CRPSM. This suggests that drainage below the field capacity needs to be included in CRPSM and that WATCOM will be a more useful management tool when detailed soil parameter is required and under variable water regime.  相似文献   
962.
A model for optimal operation of water supply/irrigation systems of various water quality sources, with treatment plants, multiple water quality conservative factors, and dilution junctions is presented. The objective function includes water cost at the sources, water conveyance costs which account for the hydraulics of the network indirectly, water treatment cost, and yield reduction costs of irrigated crops due to irrigation with poor quality water. The model can be used for systems with supply by canals as well as pipes, which serve both drinking water demands of urban/rural consumers and field irrigation requirements. The general nonlinear optimization problem has been simplified by decomposing it to a problem with linear constraints and nonlinear objective function. This problem is solved using the projected gradient method. The method is demonstrated for a regional water supply system in southern Israel that contains 39 pipes, 37 nodes, 11 sources, 10 agricultural consumers, and 4 domestic consumers. The optimal operation solution is described by discharge and salinity values for all pipes of the network. Sensitivity of the optimal solution to changes in the parameters is examined. The solution was found to be sensitive to the upper limit on drinking water quality, with total cost being reduced by 5% as the upper limit increases from 260 to 600 mg Cl l–1. The effect of income from unit crop yield is more pronounced. An increase of income by a factor of 20 results in an increase of the total cost by a factor of 3, thus encouraging more use of fresh water as long as the marginal cost of water supply is smaller than the marginal decrease in yield loss. The effect of conveyance cost becomes more pronounced as its cost increases. An increase by a factor of 100 results in an increase of the total cost by about 14%. The network studied has a long pipe that connects two distinct parts of the network and permits the supply of fresh water from one part to the other. Increasing the maximum permitted discharge in this pipe from 0 to 200 m3 h–1 reduces the total cost by 11%. Increasing the maximum discharge at one of the sources from 90 to 300 m3 h–1 reduces the total cost by about 8%.  相似文献   
963.
This paper reports the outcomes of a deliberative workshop comparing land-use plans proposed by land-manager or domain experts with those derived using a computer-based decision support system (DSS). The DSS integrates four main components, a geographic information system, land-use systems simulation models, impact assessments and land-use planning tools. The land-use planning tools draw on the other components to generate and evaluate alternative patterns of land use and management. Since the land-use planning tools are based on multi-objective genetic algorithms (mGAs) it is possible to generate a range of alternative plans that define the structure of the trade-off between the objectives. The workshop tasked the delegates with specifying land-use plans that achieved the best compromise between two objectives known to be non-commensurable and conflicting. The nature of the best compromise was dependent on their individual perspectives. The delegates proposed allocations both as individuals and in researcher-facilitated sub-groups. The mGA allocations were then compared with those derived by delegates and were found to be broadly similar in performance. Differences in the range of allocations considered feasible were explained by the hard and soft constraints on allocations agreed between the delegates and articulated within the workshop process. The hypothesis that part of the difference in performance between the mGA and delegate allocations was due to the delegates blocking together fields with the same land use for convenience of management was proved. The analysis of the group allocations revealed that the decision-making process had failed to improve on the individual allocations. From these results it was concluded that there was a potential role for mGA based land-use planning tools in researching into, and deliberating on, the possible impacts of policy or other factors affecting land-use systems. It was further concluded that the tools should not be used in isolation since there was the need for stake-holder inputs to adequately define the range of feasible and practical land-use plans.  相似文献   
964.
This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.  相似文献   
965.
The logit technique is used to analyze the relationship between dichotomous reactions of satisfaction (satisfied/dissatisfied) with the irrigation system and certain independent variables. The result shows that five important variables — water availability on time, fertilizer availability, landholding size, farmers' participation in irrigation activities and location of farmland along the canal — significantly determine satisfaction.  相似文献   
966.
A measure to evaluate performance in irrigation systems is analyzed using the mean square prediction error concept. In the context of irrigation system management, the term error means the deviation of actual performance from a reference performance. The measure assesses performance in terms of the management objectives of adequacy and dependability of water delivery and an equitable distribution among various water users. It provides an understanding of the management capacity to schedule and distribute water in an irrigation system. Application of the performance measure is demonstrated by evaluating performance of an irrigation system in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan.  相似文献   
967.
Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.  相似文献   
968.
Economic growth in China’s agricultural sector lags behind growth in industry and services, creating an ever widening rural–urban income gap. Development of the non-agricultural sectors offers new opportunities for farmers in China’s more advanced provinces such as Zhejiang. Increased income in the urban sector creates markets for new products, and migrating farmers rent their land to those staying. Until now, the prevailing rice-based systems have been managed mainly using manual labour and animal traction, but the larger farms resulting from migration may facilitate, or even require mechanization. In this study, we use a simulation model of the farm household to analyse the effects of increasing farm size and the transition from rice to vegetable production, while also studying the effects of mechanization.  相似文献   
969.
The need for a better understanding of the interaction between irrigation practices and the elevation and quality of the water table is of paramount importance for developing irrigation management strategies to ameliorate the regional problems of elevated saline water tables in the San Joaquin Valley, California. An area of approximately 3000 ha which includes portions of the Diener Ranch and the adjacent University of California, Westside Research and Extension Center, located south of Five Points in the Westlands Water District on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley was chosen for extensive field measurements. Field work consisted of four main activities namely, field instrumentation, collection of records of field activities, periodic data collection, and analyses of field data. Field measurements of water table carried out during 1994 indicated that the water table elevation was sensitive to the irrigation practices. There was a general increase in the area with a water table close to the surface during the irrigation season, and a return to water table elevations similar to the starting conditions at the end of the season. During the study period, the surface water quality deteriorated more in areas irrigated with reuse water and persisted through the end of the season. Depth averaged electrical conductivity for the study area over 6.5 m decreased between December 1993 and December 1994. Vertical hydraulic gradients in the saturated zone, were found to be an order of magnitude larger than horizontal gradients. The direction of vertical gradients changed, with downward gradients following pre-irrigations and upward gradients later in the season, when crop water requirements increased. Based on the results of the field study, it can be concluded that the irrigation management practices have a direct effect on local water table response as well as on water quality. Therefore, irrigation practices that promote less deep percolation losses may be helpful in controlling the water table rise.  相似文献   
970.
A modern computer-based simulation tool (WaterMan) in the form of a game for on-farm water management was developed for application in training events for farmers, students, and irrigators. The WaterMan game utilizes an interactive framework, thereby allowing the user to develop scenarios and test alternatives in a convenient, risk-free environment. It includes a comprehensive soil water and salt balance calculation algorithm. It also employs heuristic capabilities for modeling all of the important aspects of on-farm water management, and to provide quantitative performance evaluations and practical water management advice to the trainees. Random events (both favorable and unfavorable) and different strategic decisions are included in the game for more realism and to provide an appropriate level of challenge according to player performance. Thus, the ability to anticipate the player skill level, and to reply with random events appropriate to the anticipated level, is provided by the heuristic capabilities used in the software. These heuristic features were developed based on a combination of two artificial intelligence approaches: (1) a pattern recognition approach and (2) reinforcement learning based on a Markov decision processes approach, specifically the Q-learning method. These two approaches were combined in a new way to account for the difference in the effect of actions taken by the player and action taken by the system in the game world. The reward function for the Q-learning method was modified to reflect the suggested classification of the WaterMan game as what is referred to as a partially competitive and partially cooperative game.  相似文献   
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