Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2017

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.  相似文献   

热带农业科技国际合作项目评价体系初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐弼  蒋昌顺  鄢小宁 《热带农业工程》2011,(4):87-90

从国际科技合作项目的特点出发,探讨提出热带农业科技国际合作项目评价体系的雏形,并对评价体系的项目前评价、项目中评价及项目后评价3个阶段的评价指标加以充实,为热带农业科技国际合作项目的科学、规范管理提供参考依据。  相似文献   

高等农业院校素质教育评价体系的构建     

向丽红  刘福军  吴德喜 《安徽农业科学》2016,(11):270-272

构建素质教育评价体系对高校改革发展具有重要作用。调查显示,农业院校学生迫切需要强化素质教育。农业院校素质教育评价体系的构建与实施应从自身实际出发,针对学生实际,构建科学合理的知识结构,突出学生的综合发展测评。同时,注意助推学校的改革发展,准确合理定位学校的层次、类型、功能和特色,使学校育人目标和社会人才需求目标一致,学校发展目标和师生发展目标相和谐。  相似文献   

中国农村普惠金融发展的差异分析——以中部六省为例     

蔡洋萍 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,(6):31-37

在对普惠金融发展指数测量方法改良的基础上，对中部六省2005~2013年的普惠金融发展水平进行测度。研究发现，2005~2013年的近十年间，中部六省的农村普惠金融发展水平都有所提高，且各省普惠金融发展指数都没有出现0值的情况。从总体上来看，2005~2013年，湖南的农村普惠金融发展水平处于中部六省当中的最高水平，其次是山西、湖北、安徽、江西、河南，但河南在中部六省的普惠金融发展水平增长速度最快。从分析中部六省农村普惠金融发展水平差异的原因看：农村人均收入、农村金融机构服务数量、农村金融基础设施、普惠金融政策、当地信用环境等是造成六省普惠金融发展水平差异的重要原因。  相似文献   

山西省高速公路集约用地评价     

马耘秀 《山西农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2014,(1):34-38

对高速公路用地进行集约用地评价,可以为未来区域土地利用提供决策依据。从高速公路的用地结构、用地功能和与外部因素的协调性出发,对山西高速公路建设用地的集约利用程度作出评价。结果表明:2001~2010年,山西省高速公路用地数量有所增长,其结构不断调整,功能不断增强,与人口、社会经济的协调性也不断加强,集约度不断提高。未来10年,山西省高速公路将迅速发展,必须加大集约利用力度,以尽可能少的用地满足人类社会发展对公路交通运输的需求。  相似文献   

层次分析法在庆阳市行道树选择中的应用     

穆妮妮  张彦山  张有龙 《甘肃农业科技》2015,(6):8-11

结合庆阳市立地条件与能源化工基地建设,运用层次分析法构建了庆阳市行道树综合评价体系,进行定性与定量相结合评价。评价结果表明,在庆阳市行道树的选择中以生态效益较好的法国梧桐、臭椿、银杏、国槐、桑树等为主,以常绿针叶树种侧柏、刺柏等为辅。  相似文献   

建设用地集约利用评价指标的权重确定方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

任俊涛  程琳琳  王林伟  王鹏飞  马逯 《安徽农业科学》2014,(13):4087-4088,4091

基于建设用地集约利用评价指标,应用文献统计法和综合分析法,阐述了中国建设用地及建设用地集约利用评价指标权重赋权方法的现状,着重研究了各种权重确定方法在建设用地集约评价中的实践应用,并对其进行总结和讨论,探讨了建设用地集约利用评价指标权重确定方法的发展趋势.  相似文献   

重庆南温泉洗浴废水用作植物灌溉水的可行性研究     

幸宏伟  赖田利  秦坤蓉  徐武东 《节水灌溉》2015,(4)

重庆市温泉资源丰富,温泉洗浴废水运用于绿地灌溉可以节约成本,缓解城市的水危机。温泉洗浴废水对植物生长有正负两方面的影响,与植物的种类,温泉洗浴废水的水质等因素有关。实验以重庆市常见的两种绿地植物——冷水花木春菊为研究对象,对温泉洗浴废水中影响植物生长的pH、固体悬浮物、高锰酸钾,总溶解性固体4个常见指标进行了浓度值对比实验。运用对相对电导率拟合Logistic方程求半致死浓度值的方法,确定绿地植物所能耐受的上限阀值。以此为基础对温泉废水进行相关处理,使温泉废水既可以达到灌溉绿地的水质标准,又能最大限度地降低废水处理成本,从而充分利用水资源。  相似文献   

Effects of dietary Lactobacillus acidophilus and Bacillus subtilis on laying performance,egg quality,blood biochemistry and immune response of organic laying hens          下载免费PDF全文

C. Forte  L. Moscati  G. Acuti  C. Mugnai  M. P. Franciosini  S. Costarelli  G. Cobellis  M. Trabalza‐Marinucci 《Journal of animal physiology and animal nutrition》2016,100(5):977-987

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of two different probiotic micro‐organisms on the performance, egg quality and blood parameters of organically reared hens. A total of 900 16‐week‐old Hy‐Line layer hybrids were randomly assigned to three groups of 300 birds each. The control (CTR) group was fed a corn–soya bean cake‐based diet; the L group was fed the same diet supplemented with 0.1% Lactobacillus acidophilus, while the B group was fed the same diet supplemented with 0.05% Bacillus subtilis. Data were recorded at the beginning (weeks 5 and 6: T1) and at the end (weeks 19 and 20: T2) of the experiment, and no differences in hen performance were recorded between dietary groups or sampling times. All of the investigated clinical chemistry parameters, except GGT, were affected by diet (p < 0.05), with the best results recorded for the probiotic‐treated groups. The immune‐response values showed higher blood bactericidal activity in the B and L groups at T2 (p < 0.05) and a lower lysozime concentration in the B group at T1. Higher antibody production against Newcastle disease virus was observed in the L group compared to the CTR (p = 0.013). No differences in oxidative status were recorded, and no effects of diet on egg quality were observed. Among the physical egg characteristics, only the Roche scale colour was affected by diet (p < 0.05): the egg yolk was paler in the L group. The age of the hen was the most relevant factor affecting physical egg characteristics. The chemical parameters of the egg were almost unaffected by supplementation with probiotics except for the lipid content, which decreased with the L diet (p < 0.05). Both probiotic inclusions had beneficial effects on hen metabolism and welfare, and L. acidophilus induced the best immune response.  相似文献   

微生物菌剂在蔬菜基质研发与应用上的研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

束胜  蔡忠  朱忠贵  郭世荣 《长江蔬菜》2016,(14):36-40

综述了在固体有机废弃物基质发酵过程中,添加微生物菌剂对堆体温度、p H值、养分含量和C/N等关键腐熟指标的影响,分析了微生物菌剂在蔬菜基质育苗和栽培上的应用效果及其作用机制,并展望了微生物菌剂在未来基质研发上的应用前景,以期为含有微生物菌剂的功能型蔬菜基质开发提供新的思路。  相似文献