基于KPCA-WLSSVM的建筑能耗预测模型     

赵超  戴坤成  王贵评 《保鲜与加工》2015,(5):109-115

为降低建筑能耗影响因素间复杂相关性对模型性能的影响,建立了一种基于KPCA-WLSSVM的建筑能耗预测模型。利用核主元分析(KPCA)对输入变量进行数据压缩,消除变量之间的相关性,简化模型结构;进一步采用加权最小二乘支持向量机(WLSSVM)方法建立建筑能耗预测模型,同时结合一种新型混沌粒子群-模拟退火混合优化(CPSO-SA)算法对模型参数进行优化,以提高模型的预测性能及泛化能力。通过将KPCA-WLSSVM模型方法应用于某办公建筑能耗的预测中,并与WLSSVM、LSSVM及RBFNN模型相比,实验结果表明,KPCA-WLSSVM模型方法能有效提高建筑能耗预测精度。  相似文献   

The Monitoring Measurements and Country Rock Control of NATM in Tunnel of Express Road during Construction     

Liu Li Tang Janxin 《保鲜与加工》1995,(5):113-119

In this paper the author' s study on the monitoring measurement technique of NATM,the regularity and conditions of the country rock deformation are analysed based on the site measurement data in the west section of Zhongliangshan tunnel. The regression analysis of measure data for different measure lines of vavious country rock is done by the use of self-compiled CRAP program. The stability criterion for various rockmass and optimum time for primary and permanent support are provided. The conclusion available could conduct the theoretical research of NATM deeply as well as tunnel design and construction.  相似文献   

基于LS-SVM的小水电站年发电量智能预测模型     

吴德会  虞耀君 《中国农村水利水电》2007,(2):93-95,98

针对小水电站年发电量序列的特点,将最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machine,LS-SVM)回归模型引入年发电量预测领域,并给出了相应的过程和算法。与常规基于人工神经网络(artificial neural net-works,ANN)的智能预测方法比较,该模型优点是明显的:①将神经网络迭代学习问题转化为直接求解多元线性方程;②整个训练过程中有且仅有一个全局极值点,确定了预测的稳定性。最后,一个实际的预测例子表明:该模型实现容易、预测准确,适用于小水电站预测。  相似文献   

基于最小二乘支持向量机模型预测田面糙率     

李建文  郭向红  孙西欢  马娟娟 《节水灌溉》2015,(1)

田面糙率是影响地面灌溉质量的重要参数。基于最小二乘支持向量机建立了两类4个田面糙率预测模型,并进行了验证。结果表明第一类模型预测值(即作物地采用LSSVM-N-I3、裸地采用LSSVM-N-I1,翻耕地采用LSSVM-N-I2)相对误差最大值为9.7%;第二类模型预测值(即LSSVM-N-II模型)相对误差最大值为10.5%,由此可见两类模型都具有较高的预测精度,可以用于田面糙率的预测。  相似文献   

棉花膜下滴灌监控系统软件的设计     

李江全  马富裕  郑重  刘恩博 《农机化研究》2006,(1):132-134

将工业自动化通用组态软件KingView和VB开发软件有机结合起来,设计棉花膜下滴灌智能决策与自动监控系统软件,并以数据库、模型库、知识库和方法库为技术核心,通过田间传感器进行数据实时采集、计算、分析与决策,由控制系统发送决策指令来控制灌溉设备开/闭,以提高灌溉的时效性。  相似文献   

陡山灌区实时灌溉预报研究   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

蔡学良  崔远来  宋志强  王骆喜  吴雷 《灌溉排水学报》2003,22(3):33-36

介绍了参考作物腾发量和实际作物腾发量的实时预报及修正方法 ,结合陡山灌区实际资料 ,分别针对主要旱作物和水稻建立了实时灌溉预报模型 ,并对模型各参数进行了率定 ,特别针对参考作物腾发量预报模型中 A0 的确定进行了分析 ,给出了更合理的 A0 取值方法。基于可视化语言开发灌溉配水实时决策支持系统 ,该系统界面友好 ,操作简单 ,实用性强 ,利于推广。  相似文献   

Water Pricing and Sustainability of Self-Governing Irrigation Schemes     

Pierre-Yves Le Gal  Thierry Rieu  Charles Fall 《Irrigation and Drainage Systems》2003,17(3):213-238

The sustainability of self-governingirrigation schemes is currently underpressure in many countries as publicfinancial support is decreasing.Furthermore, growing global concernregarding water scarcity means thatefficient water use is essential.Theoretically the choice and implementationof a water-pricing system should play acentral role in achieving this objective,both by recovering water costs and byencouraging farmers to adopt more efficientbehaviour. In the Senegal River Delta newlyestablished water users associations (WUAs)have chosen low water charges, which areaffordable for the majority of farmers butwhich underestimate long-term maintenancecosts. Combined with the difficulty ofcollecting and managing farmers' fees, thischoice has drawn them into a vicious circleleading to scheme deterioration and poorwater service. New alternatives have beendiscussed with them using a simulation toolthat takes into account both the watercosts and the farmers' incomes. Comparedwith the present fixed water charge basedonly on cultivated land, a two-part optionbased both on equipped and irrigated areasensures the recovery of fixed expenses suchas maintenance, while encouraging farmersto intensify their farming systems byadopting double cropping. Neverthelesschoosing a relevant water charge does notensure by itself the sustainability of anirrigation scheme. Combined supportproviding WUAS and farmers with efficientadvice regarding management andorganisational skills should alsocontribute significantly to achieve thisprime objective.  相似文献   

黄河流域典型灌区灌溉节水管理模型研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

崔远来  李远华  顾炜  谢崇宝 《中国农村水利水电》2002,(4):14-17

以黄河流域上下游2个典型灌区为背景，针对灌区有其农业水管理现状，开发了灌溉节水策略分析决策支持系统（DSS）原型。DSS是一个规划工具，通过对不同策略下田间配水及供水系统的模拟分析及综合决策，寻求最优的策略集合，以达到节约灌溉用水量、提高农业用水效率及维持农业可持续发展的目的。该DSS系统主要用于黄河流域灌区提高农业水管理水平的策略分析，也可用于评估灌区续建配套及土地最佳利用方案等方面。  相似文献   

Monitoring forage production for farmers’ decision making     

Gonzalo Grigera  Martín OesterheldFernando Pacín 《Agricultural Systems》2007

Objective management of grazing livestock production systems needs monitoring of forage production at the managerial unit level. Our objectives were to develop a system that routinely estimates forage above-ground net primary production (ANPP) at the spatial and temporal resolution required by farmers in the Pampas of Argentina, and to facilitate adoption of the system by end users as a managerial support tool. Our approach was based on the radiation use efficiency (RUE) logic, which proposes that ANPP is determined by the amount of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy (APAR), and the efficiency with which that energy is transformed in above-ground dry matter (radiation use efficiency, RUE). APAR is the product of incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and the fraction absorbed by the canopy (fPAR). We estimated fPAR as a non-linear function of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). RUE was empirically estimated for the two principal forage resources of the region, yielding the following relations: ANPP = 0.6 × APAR + 12, (R² = 0.86; p < 0.001; n = 18) for the upland sown pastures, and ANPP = 0.27 × APAR + 26, (R² = 0.74; p < 0.001; n = 18) for the lowland naturalized pastures, with ANPP in g/m²/60 days and APAR in MJ/m²/60 days. The models were able to predict independent ANPP values with acceptable accuracy. Computational procedures were automated and run in a Relational Data Base Manager System that stored and managed all the information. The system is currently monitoring 212,794 ha in 83 farms and provides monthly ANPP values for the previous month and a history of the last 6 years. The data so generated show ANPP differences between the two major forage resources, considerable variability of a given month’s ANPP among years and paddocks, and contrasting among-farm differences in the efficiency of conversion of ANPP and forage supplements into beef production. The system was well accepted by end users who utilize it mainly for making near real time decisions according to last month ANPP, and explaining results of previous production cycles by incorporating ANPP as an explicative variable. However, there were differences among farmers in the degree of utilization, apparently related to the advisor’s attitude toward this new technology. Our results indicate that (1) forage production of large extensions can be monthly monitored at the paddock level by a small laboratory with capabilities in geographic information systems, and (2) advisors and farmers apply this information to their managerial decisions.  相似文献   

Combining deliberative and computer-based methods for multi-objective land-use planning     

K.B. Matthews  K. Buchan  A.R. Sibbald  S. Craw 《Agricultural Systems》2006

This paper reports the outcomes of a deliberative workshop comparing land-use plans proposed by land-manager or domain experts with those derived using a computer-based decision support system (DSS). The DSS integrates four main components, a geographic information system, land-use systems simulation models, impact assessments and land-use planning tools. The land-use planning tools draw on the other components to generate and evaluate alternative patterns of land use and management. Since the land-use planning tools are based on multi-objective genetic algorithms (mGAs) it is possible to generate a range of alternative plans that define the structure of the trade-off between the objectives. The workshop tasked the delegates with specifying land-use plans that achieved the best compromise between two objectives known to be non-commensurable and conflicting. The nature of the best compromise was dependent on their individual perspectives. The delegates proposed allocations both as individuals and in researcher-facilitated sub-groups. The mGA allocations were then compared with those derived by delegates and were found to be broadly similar in performance. Differences in the range of allocations considered feasible were explained by the hard and soft constraints on allocations agreed between the delegates and articulated within the workshop process. The hypothesis that part of the difference in performance between the mGA and delegate allocations was due to the delegates blocking together fields with the same land use for convenience of management was proved. The analysis of the group allocations revealed that the decision-making process had failed to improve on the individual allocations. From these results it was concluded that there was a potential role for mGA based land-use planning tools in researching into, and deliberating on, the possible impacts of policy or other factors affecting land-use systems. It was further concluded that the tools should not be used in isolation since there was the need for stake-holder inputs to adequately define the range of feasible and practical land-use plans.  相似文献