河南省获嘉县气象灾害风险评估系统研究     

祝新建  臧新洲 《安徽农业科学》2012,40(26):12873-12875

根据获嘉县1961～2010年的气象资料和当地的耕地面积、人口密度和当地居民的经济状况等资料,利用气象材料、方法及评价指标,从暴雨、冰雹、大风等方面对致灾因子进行分析,利用ACRGIS软件插值法进行各种因子的风险区划,并建立了获嘉县的农业气象灾害损失的结构型统计评估模型。结果表明:暴雨、冰雹和大风灾害发生概率高,气象灾害综合风险程度较高的地方主要分布在照镜镇、位庄乡、中和镇和徐营镇,风险程度相对较小的地方主要是城关镇、黄堤镇和亢村镇。  相似文献   

薇甘菊入侵中国的风险分析     

郭琼霞  黄可辉 《江西农业学报》2012,(10):53-54,58

为了为薇甘菊的检疫与控制提供依据,本文从国内外分布与重视程度、生物学特性、潜在的危害性、定殖与扩散的可能性、管理的难度等方面对薇甘菊入侵中国的风险性进行了定性分析。  相似文献   

棉花冰雹灾害风险评价——以安徽省为例(英文)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

尹圆圆  王静爱  赵金涛  岳耀杰  马进 《农业科学与技术》2012,(8):1744-1748

[目的]以安徽省为例,对棉花冰雹灾害进行风险评价。[方法]以我国雹灾多发区安徽省为例,基于安徽省棉花雹灾风险评价数据库,采用统计推断法和综合指标度量法,提取雹灾致灾强度指数(H)和棉花损失率(L);使用Matlab和SPSS软件,拟合棉花苗期、蕾期、铃期和吐絮期4条雹灾脆弱性曲线;基于构建的棉花雹灾年度灾害损失率计算模型Sa=ni=1ΣSi-ni=1仪Si=1-(1-Si),开展安徽省棉花雹灾风险评价,并编绘风险评价图谱。[结果]安徽省棉花雹灾高风险区集中在东北部地区和皖西山地丘陵区,低风险区分布在长江中下游地区和皖南山区,与棉花历史雹灾空间分布吻合较好。[结论]该研究探讨了基于不完备信息数据的雹灾风险评价方法,可为其他地区雹灾风险评价提供方法和技术参考。  相似文献   

黄土高原小流域土地利用景观格局与土壤侵蚀风险评价??     

毕如田 《农学学报》2012,2(6):54-58

地形是景观空间分布格局的重要影响因子,特别是在人为活动占优势的景观中地形条件成为大尺度景观空间分布格局的决定因素。以地处黄土高原、水土流失较为严重的山西省永和县岔口小流域为研究对象,利用SPOT遥感影像、1：1万地形图和土地利用现状等数据,通过对小流域的土地利用现状和DEM分析,得到各地形分级单元的土地利用景观指数,并对流域土壤侵蚀风险进行了评价研究。结果表明：研究区土地利用景观格局分布与高程、坡度和坡向有一定的相关性,岔口小流域整体土壤侵蚀风险处于中等较低的水平。  相似文献   

The consequences of risk-based surveillance: Developing output-based standards for surveillance to demonstrate freedom from disease     

Cameron AR 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2012,103(4):280-286

Risk factors associated with high or low long-term incidence of displaced abomasum (DA) or clinical ketosis were studied in 60 Swedish dairy herds, using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Forty high-incidence herds were included as cases and 20 low-incidence herds as controls. Incidence rates were calculated based on veterinary records of clinical diagnoses. During the 3-year period preceding the herd classification, herds with a high incidence had a disease incidence of DA or clinical ketosis above the 3rd quartile in a national database for disease recordings. Control herds had no cows with DA or clinical ketosis. All herds were visited during the housing period and herdsmen were interviewed about management routines, housing, feeding, milk yield, and herd health. Target groups were heifers in late gestation, dry cows, and cows in early lactation. Univariable logistic regression was used to screen for factors associated with being a high-incidence herd. A multivariable logistic regression model was built using stepwise regression. A higher maximum daily milk yield in multiparous cows and a large herd size (p = 0.054 and p = 0.066, respectively) tended to be associated with being a high-incidence herd. Not cleaning the heifer feeding platform daily increased the odds of having a high-incidence herd twelvefold (p < 0.01). Keeping cows in only one group in the dry period increased the odds of having a high incidence herd eightfold (p = 0.03). Herd size was confounded with housing system. Housing system was therefore added to the final logistic regression model. In conclusion, a large herd size, a high maximum daily milk yield, keeping dry cows in one group, and not cleaning the feeding platform daily appear to be important risk factors for a high incidence of DA or clinical ketosis in Swedish dairy herds. These results confirm the importance of housing, management and feeding in the prevention of metabolic disorders in dairy cows around parturition and in early lactation.  相似文献   

紫金山鳞翅目害虫风险分析、预测及防控策略     

袁登荣  奚月明  刘曙雯  居峰  董丽娜  陈希 《江苏林业科技》2012,39(5):26-30

通过对南京紫金山不同植被类型鳞翅目昆虫群落结构及时空动态的调查,综合其优势种类、本地和省级历史危害种类;经过研究和分析影响紫金山鳞翅目有害生物危险性的各种相关因子以及这些相关因子的地位、作用和相互之间的关系,分别采用多指标综合评估法、经验综合评估法对紫金山不同植被类型中可能造成危害的各类鳞翅目风险源进行了风险分析和风险预测,并提出了相应的防控策略。  相似文献   

长期施肥下红壤磷素积累的环境风险分析   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

王艳玲  何园球  吴洪生  李仁英  金飞 《土壤学报》2010,47(5):880-887

以长期(始于1988年)施肥的旱地红壤为材料,研究了土壤磷积累与磷吸附的关系,通过分析土壤磷素吸附特征参数及面向环境的土壤磷素表征值的变化,讨论了长期施肥下旱地红壤磷素积累的环境风险。结果表明:长期施磷可显著增加红壤磷素的累积量,降低土壤对外源磷的固持能力,提高土壤的有效磷及易解吸磷的量。供试的7个试验处理,除NK处理及花生秸秆本田还田处理外,土壤有效磷均高于20mg kg-1,已达到丰磷状态,但只有配施厩肥处理的土壤磷素存在环境风险。因此,应在兼顾土壤磷素的农业效应和环境安全的前提下,建立新的施肥制度,使磷素资源的利用更加合理化。  相似文献   

安徽省洪涝灾害风险区划及成灾面积变化趋势分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

郭永芳  查良松 《中国农业气象》2010,31(1):130-136

从成因分析角度选取洪涝灾害风险评估因子,用基于熵权的层次分析法赋予各因子相应的权重,建立洪涝灾害风险度评价模型,以县域为单位对安徽省进行洪涝灾害风险区划。利用安徽境内78个县(市)1998-2007年洪涝成灾面积资料,分析了全省和各风险区洪涝成灾面积的变化规律;利用R/S分析方法计算其相应的Hurst指数,预测未来的可能演变趋势。结果表明:安徽省洪涝灾害风险度较高的县(市)分布于淮北平原、江淮丘陵西部和沿江西部平原,风险度较低的县(市)位于皖南山区和皖西大别山区。1998-2007年,洪涝灾害高风险区、次高风险区和全省的洪涝成灾面积均呈增加趋势,而中风险区、次低风险区及低风险区均呈减少趋势;但R/S分析所得Hurst指数均属于(0,0.5),说明此种趋势不可延续,未来情况可能会向相反方向变化。  相似文献   

Risk Identification and Assessment in Deep Foundation Pit Project of Shield Shaft     

Rui Dahu  Zhang Changhai  Wang Yang  Chen Yongshuan  Yang Jianhui 《保鲜与加工》2013,(Z1):117-120

With the rapid development of shield, construction risk attracts comprehensive attentions in deep foundation pit engineering. Taking as an example the foundation pit excavation construction of 3shield shaft project in South-North Water Diversion main canal project, the WBS method was brought forward to break down the work of deep foundation pits based on the engineering geological conditions and the condition of surrounding in the 3shield deep foundation pits. Then its risk events and factors of construction of deep foundation pits were identified by use of the fault tree method. Finally, the construction risk degrees of all kinds were evaluated and decided in accordance with the general integration risk assessment method based on the AHP method. The method could be used to evaluate the risk degree of similar project.  相似文献   

Introduction: Working Forests in the Tropics: Policy and Market Impacts on Conservation and Management     

Daniel J. Zarin  Janaki Alavalapati  Marianne Schmink 《Journal of Sustainable Forestry》2013,32(1-2):1-5

Abstract

Tropical forests are very rich in biological diversity and form an important economic and ecological resource. This biodiversity is of great value for communities living in or near these forests as a ready source of subsistence and cash income, and for the world at large as a source of tropical timber and non-timber products and a repository of genetic and chemical information. However, this biological complexity is diminishing rapidly. We analyze the main human (anthropogenic) actions causing loss of tropical forest biodiversity along with the strategies of management for forest biodiversity. Not only is the biophysical component important in management for biodiversity, but the active participation and support of local people, national governments, and the international community as a whole are essential to effective and sustainable development of tropical forests. This development strategy ensures that socioeconomic and environmental benefits are provided for present and future generations.  相似文献