Predicting non‐native fish dispersal under conditions of climate change: case study in England of dispersal and establishment of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in a floodplain pond     

Emily Fobert  Grzegorz Zięba  Lorenzo Vilizzi  Michael J. Godard  Michael G. Fox  Saulius Stakėnas  Gordon H. Copp 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2013,22(1):106-116

Predictions of future climate change include shifts in patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water run‐off, resulting in increased periods of drought as well as variability and intensity of rainfall events. In the United Kingdom, the non‐native North American sunfish, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.), is expected to benefit from these changes. We examine how hydrological variability induced by predicted changes in climate will affect the dispersal and spread of pumpkinseed in England by: (i) determining the relationship between discharge regime and pumpkinseed propagule pressure; (ii) examining a newly‐established pumpkinseed population following a flood event in 2007; and (iii) comparing the growth and life‐history traits of this new population with fish collected from the source population to demonstrate how the pumpkinseed's life‐history plasticity contributes to its success as a coloniser. Using Bayesian modelling, we determined that the number of pumpkinseed escapees is likely to increase with increasing discharge. The newly‐established pumpkinseed population showed fast juvenile growth, early age at maturity and small size at maturity. These traits differed significantly from the source population, specifically total length (TL) means at ages 1 and 2 were significantly greater in the new population, whereas TL at age 4 was significantly greater in the source population, and a significantly higher proportion of mature females were found at smaller size classes in the newly established pumpkinseed population. This study demonstrates the potential link between hydrological variability (current and future) and the dispersal of non‐native pumpkinseed, leading to the establishment of new populations.  相似文献   

基于空间自相关构建树木生长模型   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

程希平  水崎大二郎  王四海  吴利华  马月伟  巩合德 《北京林业大学学报》2012,34(5):113-119

2004—2008年，在日本九州地区宫崎县田野天然次生林内设置的一块100 m×100 m固定标准地中，通过每木调查，测量了固定标准地内树木的种类、空间位置、生长等数据。为了便于理解，以固定标准地中优势树种蚊母树为主要研究对象，在考虑周边所有树木的影响的同时，利用贝叶斯统计方法分析了空间自相关及树木间的对称竞争、非对称竞争对树木生长过程的影响，并比较了忽略空间自相关的情况。结果表明:在构建研究对象树种的生长模型时，树木个体间的竞争是不可缺少的参数，尤其是个体间的对称竞争。在利用空间自相关参数建模时，最终模型的决定系数R2＝0.83；而忽略空间自相关参数的模型，其决定系数R2＝0.74。通过其他主要树种的分析也表明了导入空间自相关参数的优越性，因此可以认为，考虑空间自相关的随机效应模型能更精确地预测树木的生长。本研究所采用的空间自相关模型不仅可以利用树木个体的分布信息推测其生态学特征，还为树木生长模拟提供了理论与方法上的借鉴。   相似文献   

基于特征筛选算法的数字土壤制图研究          下载免费PDF全文

张晓婷  黄魏  傅佩红  孟可  王苏放 《土壤学报》2024,61(3)

平缓地带数字土壤制图中，环境协变量的选择是提高制图精度的关键。已有研究证明遥感影像可作为推理制图的辅助因子，而如何确定环境因子推理制图时各自的权重已成为现阶段研究的重点。选取湖北省麻城市乘马岗镇为研究区，采用3种特征筛选方法进行有效环境变量筛选，探索参与平原-丘陵混合区域制图的因子并确定其重要性，依据选择的相对稳定的指标，进一步探索提高土壤类型制图准确性的途径。根据141个野外独立样点的检验结果表明：在推理制图中，遥感因子在平原区域的重要性程度高于丘陵区域，且遥感因子中归一化植被指数(NDVI)和均值(Mean)较为稳定；基于递归特征算法的按地形推理制图精度最高为75.89%，分别高于ReliefF算法和基于Tree的特征筛选算法13.48%和4.97%；此外3种特征筛选算法制图结果中，按地形因子分区制图的精度均高于整体区域制图。因此，遥感因子作为辅助手段参与推理过程可有效提高制图精度。本研究采用的特征挖掘与机器学习算法对提升土壤制图精度具有一定的理论意义。  相似文献   

Predicting Carbon Stocks Following Reforestation of Pastures: A Sampling Scenario‐Based Approach for Testing the Utility of Field‐Measured and Remotely Derived Variables     

《Land Degradation \u0026amp; Development》2017,28(3):1122-1133

Reforestation of agricultural lands is an important means of restoring land and sequestering carbon (C). At large scales, the labour and costs of direct measurement of ecosystem responses can be prohibitive, making the development of models valuable. Here, we develop a new sampling scenario‐based modelling approach coupled with Bayesian model averaging to build predictive models for absolute values in mixed‐species woody plantings and differences from their adjacent pasture, for litter stocks, soil C stocks and soil C:N ratios. Modelling scenarios of increasing data availability and effort were tested. These included variables that could be derived without a site visit (e.g. location, climate and management) that were sampled in the adjacent pasture (e.g. soil C and nutrients) or were sampled in the environmental planting (e.g. vegetation, litter properties, soil C and nutrients). The predictive power of models varied considerably among C variables (litter stocks, soil C stocks and soil C:N ratios in tree plantings and their differences to their adjacent pastures) and the model scenarios used. The use of a sampling scenario‐based approach to building predictive models shows promise for monitoring changes in tree plantings, following reforestation. The approach could also be readily adapted to other contexts where sampling effort for predictor variables in models is a major potential limitation to model utilization. This study demonstrates the benefit of exploring scenarios of data availability during modelling and will be especially valuable where the sampling effort differs greatly among variables. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Morphological variation in the short-tailed fruit bat (Carollia) in Ecuador,with comments on the practical and philosophical aspects of boundaries among species     

Pablo JARRÍN-V.  Cristina FLORES  Janeth SALCEDO 《Integrative zoology》2010,5(3):226-240

The mechanisms for the morphological delimitation of species in Carollia remain poorly understood. This is the first study to assess variation in size and shape from strictly geometric terms. Both factors are assessed by statistical perspectives of distribution, overlap and relative distances. Despite its overlap, the size of the skull seems to be the most influential character for the discrimination of species, with shape playing a much smaller role. The smallest species seems to be the most distinct in shape, not only in terms of distance among centroids in morphometric space, but also in the overall trend and direction of variation. Contrary to previous studies, sexual dimorphism is not given by size but by distinct shapes of the skull. Characters such as the shape of the maxilla, previously described qualitatively as discrete with sharp boundaries, appear to be truly continuous with fuzzy borders among species. Because morphometric space is a gamut of continuous variation and overlap, the taxonomic error rate for size characters seems to be substantial for the medium-sized species (Carollia brevicauda Schinz, 1821), with approximately 30–40% of individuals erroneously assigned to a different species after a jackknifed discriminant function. This taxonomic error is higher for shape characters. Morphological, systematic and ecological consequences of the observed patterns of shape and size variation are commented within the context of previously proposed arguments and hypotheses.  相似文献   

Determination of moisture content and basic specific gravity of Populus tremuloides (Michx.) and Populus balsamifera (L.) logs using a portable near-infrared spectrometer     

Guillaume Hans  Brigitte Leblon  Paul Cooper  Armand La Rocque  Joseph Nader 《Wood material science & engineering》2015,10(1):3-16

  相似文献   

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction          下载免费PDF全文

X. Wu  M.S. Lund  D. Sun  Q. Zhang  G. Su 《Zeitschrift für Tierzüchtung und Züchtungsbiologie》2015,132(5):366-375

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less‐related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction.  相似文献   

基于主成分与聚类分析的樱桃番茄品质综合评价     

周艳超  薛坤  葛海燕  陈火英  刘杨 《浙江农业学报》2021,33(12):2320

为探讨育种材料之间的品质差异,筛选适宜的推广品种,对29份樱桃番茄杂交组合的14个品质相关指标进行测量,运用描述性分析、主成分分析、聚类分析和判别分析对樱桃番茄进行综合评价。结果表明,番茄红素的变异系数最大,达到59%;横径的变异系数最小,仅为11%。主成分分析将14个品质指标简化为5个因子,累积贡献率达79.05%。结合聚类分析,筛选出决定番茄综合品质的6个指标——单果重、糖酸比、硬度、果形指数、V_C和番茄红素。综合主成分分析筛选出综合品质得分较高的组合。聚类分析将材料分为6类,结合判别分析构建了樱桃番茄品质判别函数,模型交叉验证显示正确判别率达到79.3%。此研究为樱桃番茄的品质评价提供了新思路。  相似文献   

Prevalence and risk factors of Coxiella burnetii seropositivity in Danish beef and dairy cattle at slaughter adjusted for test uncertainty     

Suman Paul  Jens F. Agger  Jørgen S. Agerholm  Bo Markussen 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2014

Antibodies to Coxiella burnetii have been found in the Danish dairy cattle population with high levels of herd and within herd seroprevalences. However, the prevalence of antibodies to C. burnetii in Danish beef cattle remains unknown. The objectives of this study were to (1) estimate the prevalence and (2) identify risk factors associated with C. burnetii seropositivity in Danish beef and dairy cattle based on sampling at slaughter.  相似文献   

Developing robust frequentist and Bayesian fish stock assessment methods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yong Chen  Yan Jiao  & Liqiao Chen 《Fish and Fisheries》2003,4(2):105-120

Errors in fitting models to data are usually assumed to follow a normal (or log normal) distribution in fisheries. This assumption is usually used in formulating likelihood functions often required in frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment modelling. Fisheries data are commonly subject to atypical errors, resulting in outliers in stock assessment modelling. Because most stock assessment models are nonlinear and contain multiple variables, it is difficult, if not impossible, to identify outliers by plotting fisheries data alone. Commonly used normal distribution‐based frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment methods are sensitive to outliers, resulting in biased estimates of model parameters that are vital in defining the dynamics of fish stocks and evaluating alternative strategies for fisheries management. Because of the high likelihood of having outliers in fisheries data, frequentist or Bayesian methods robust to outliers are more desirable in fisheries stock assessment. This study reviews three approaches that can be used to develop robust frequentist or Bayesian stock assessment methods. Using simulated fisheries as examples, we demonstrate how these approaches can be used to develop the frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment approaches that are robust to outliers in fisheries data and compare the robust approaches with the commonly used normal distribution‐based approach. The proposed robust approaches provide alternative ways to developing frequentist or Bayesian stock assessment methods.  相似文献