Geostatistical interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2016

Many crop growth models require daily meteorological data. Consequently, model simulations can be obtained only at a limited number of locations, i.e. at weather stations with long-term records of daily data. To estimate the potential crop production at country level, we present in this study a geostatistical approach for spatial interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs. As case study, we interpolated, simulated and aggregated crop growth model outputs of sorghum and millet in West-Africa. We used crop growth model outputs to calibrate a linear regression model using environmental covariates as predictors. The spatial regression residuals were investigated for spatial correlation. The linear regression model and the spatial correlation of residuals together were used to predict theoretical crop yield at all locations using kriging with external drift. A spatial standard deviation comes along with this prediction, indicating the uncertainty of the prediction. In combination with land use data and country borders, we summed the crop yield predictions to determine an area total. With spatial stochastic simulation, we estimated the uncertainty of that total production potential as well as the spatial cumulative distribution function. We compared our results with the prevailing agro-ecological Climate Zones approach used for spatial aggregation. Linear regression could explain up to 70% of the spatial variation of the yield. In three out of four cases the regression residuals showed spatial correlation. The potential crop production per country according to the Climate Zones approach was in all countries and cases except one within the 95% prediction interval as obtained after yield aggregation. We concluded that the geostatistical approach can estimate a country’s crop production, including a quantification of uncertainty. In addition, we stress the importance of the use of geostatistics to create tools for crop modelling scientists to explore relationships between yields and spatial environmental variables and to assist policy makers with tangible results on yield gaps at multiple levels of spatial aggregation.  相似文献   

不同规格穴盘育苗对茄苗及其栽培效益的影响     

周洪  朱鹏飞  徐佳 《蔬菜》2017,(10):11-13

为完善茄子穴盘育苗技术,对比研究了不同规格穴盘育苗的茄苗素质及栽培效益。结果表明:32孔规格穴盘育苗比50孔茄苗素质明显提升;移栽单栋钢架大棚后,32孔穴盘育苗的茄子早熟性比50孔穴盘育苗平均提前5 d,总产量增加15.3%;667 m~2投入成本32孔穴盘育苗比50孔穴盘育苗增加75.3%(35.6元),而收益增加了2 427.9元。因此建议大棚茄子种植采用32孔规格穴盘进行育苗。  相似文献   

Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2017

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.  相似文献   

Plant growth regulator and its interactions with environment and genotype affect maize optimal plant density and yield     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2017

Increasing planting density is important to raise maize yield, however, high density often leads to an increase risk of lodging due to dense canopy and weak stem. Maize yield and optimal plant density are increased by applying plant growth regulator compound of ethephon and DA-6, however, we do not know if this compound would interact with location and genotype. In this study, a novel plant growth regulator, as the synthesis of N, N- diethyl − 2 − hexanoyl oxygen radicals − ethyl amine (2-ethyl chloride) phosphonic acid salt (DHEAP), combining the effects of ethephon and DA-6 in one chemical, was developed and tested at three locations, five plant densities (6.75, 8.25, 9.75, 11.25 and 12.75 plants m⁻²) and three cultivars in 2014–2015. This study aimed to quantify the interactions between environment, genotype and management (Appling DHEAP and plant density) on lodging-related optimal plant density and yield. DHEAP significantly increased grain yield by 10.7% due to the increases of kernel weight by 3.2% and kernel number per ear by 4.4%. On average across genotypes and environments, applying DHEAP increased optimum plant density by 6%. The optimal plant density interacted with cultivar, DHEAP and environment. Applying DHEAP reduced lodging percentage by lowering ear height. The yield-lodging relationship was affected by genotype and location. We concluded that maize yield could be enhanced by optimizing plant density, applying DHEAP and cultivar selection, but climatic and environmental differences of locations should be considered.  相似文献   

几种缓释肥在盐碱地区夏玉米栽培中的应用研究     

刘艳昆  阎旭东  徐玉鹏  岳明强  刘振敏  芮松青  王秀领 《安徽农业科学》2014,(5):1340-1341

[目的]为玉米生产提供技术指导。[方法]采用田间试验，研究4种玉米专用缓释肥对夏玉米的影响。[结果]4种缓释肥处理的增产效果都好于常规施肥，增产幅度为1．O％～24．8％。[结论]效果最好的是芭田复合长效I型缓释肥，比常规施肥增产24．8％。  相似文献   

减少底肥施用量增加叶面施肥次数对玉米产量的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李蒙蒙  刘朝 《农业科学与技术》2015,(5)

该试验目的是研究降低底肥施用量但是增加叶面肥施用次数方面对玉米产量的变化规律，旨在找出最经济的施肥方式以达到在保护环境的基础上提高经济效益的目的。试验表明，玉米产量随着底肥施用量的增加而提高，并且叶面肥喷施次数越多产量越高，每喷一次，可增加产量258~592.5 kg/hm2，增产幅度2.3%~5.6%。  相似文献   

丘陵红黄壤区施用399对“一种两收”再生稻根系和产量的影响     

蔡克桐  沈其文  黄志谋  施仕胜  耿协议 《安徽农业科学》2015,(26):51-52

[目的]研究399对"一种两收"再生稻的影响。[方法]以适宜丘陵红黄壤种植的丰两优香1号、准两优527、宜优673再生稻品种为材料,分别设置喷施399和不喷施399(CK)2种处理,研究各处理对再生稻根系和产量的影响。[结果]结果表明:施用399使水稻在生育期上延缓成熟,且施后再生稻的总根系数量、白根数量、根鲜重、根干重、根体积大幅度增加,同时在两季总产量上准两优527、丰两优香1号和宜优673品种分别比对照增产6.39%、4.86%、5.94%。[结论]施用399有利于准两优527、丰两优香1号和宜优673再生稻品种再生根的发生。  相似文献   

烤烟套种甘薯对烟叶质量、烟薯产量及土壤温湿度的影响     

祖韦军  潘文杰  林叶春 《农学学报》2020,10(4):42-47

为筛选出适宜与烤烟套种的甘薯品种,解决部分烟区烤烟种植调茬难度大与综合效益低等问题,通过田间大区试验,研究烤烟套种不同甘薯品种对烟叶质量、烟薯产量及土壤温湿度的影响。结果表明,烟薯套种能够明显提升土壤相对含水率和烟叶产量,其相对含水率提高幅度介于12.03%~91.88%,烤烟产量增幅为12.29%~31.26%。烤烟套种甘薯以紫薯产量最高,块根产量达29400 kg/hm ²,且单薯质量大于100 g占总薯重的比例在紫薯中最高。烤烟套种甘薯提升了烤烟中上部烟叶的总糖和还原糖含量,降低了烟碱和总氮含量,有利于改善烟叶内在品质。烤烟套种甘薯降低了上部烟叶含梗率,但增大了上部烟叶叶面密度,以烤烟套种紫薯表现突出。烤烟与紫薯套种,可作为一种烟田增产、烟叶增值和烟农增收的种植模式。  相似文献   

大豆四向重组自交群体单株产量QTL单标记分析     

宁海龙  李柏云  何月鹏  吴昊  白雪莲  司敬博  庄煦  李文霞 《大豆科学》2016,(1):160-164

以(垦丰14×垦丰15)×(黑农48×垦丰19)衍生的含160个株系的大豆四向重组自交系群体为试验材料,应用154个SSR标记鉴定个体基因型,利用单标记分析方法,对2013和2014年在哈尔滨和克山两地4个环境下的单株产量进行QTL定位分析。结果显示:共检测到46个与单株产量相关的QTL位点,主要分布在A1、A2、C1、C2、D2、D1b、L、K、B2、N、E、J、F、G和H连锁群上,遗传率为0.15%~9.37%。遗传率较高的标记位点有BARCSOYSSR_02_0607、BARCSOYSSR_03_1620、BARCSOYSSR_19-0451、Sat_153、Sat_367、Satt229和Satt529,优异等位基因型为BARCSOYSSR_02_0607(Q1Q1)、BARCSOYSSR_03_1620(Q2Q2)、BARCSOYSSR_09_0183(Q1Q1)、Satt229(Q2Q2)、Sat_367(Q3Q3)、Satt338(Q1Q1)、Satt229(Q1Q1)和Satt668(Q1Q1)。在检测的标记位点中,BARCSOYSSR_08_0966、Sat_36、Sat_153、BARCSOYSSR_02_0607和Satt529在两个环境中重复检测,表明这5个QTL可用于分子设计育种改良单株产量。  相似文献   

水肥耦合对小麦/玉米带田产量及构成因素的影响   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

杨蕊菊  马忠明 《西北农业学报》2015,24(1):54-59

采用"3414"最优回归设计方案,于2007-2008年在甘肃省农业科学院张掖节水试验站,开展不同水肥耦合处理小麦/玉米带田产量效应研究。结果表明,不同水肥耦合模式对小麦/玉米带田产量的影响较大,其差异达极显著水平。其中,氮肥对产量的贡献最大,水分次之,磷肥最小,氮肥对带田混合产量的绝对贡献率达79.4%,而水分对带田混合产量的绝对贡献率达为52.9%;水肥耦合效应为:水氮耦合水磷耦合氮磷耦合;获得高产量12 952.5~13 880.0kg/hm2的施氮量为420~630kg/hm2、灌水量为5 550~6 750m3/hm2、施磷量为120kg/hm2。相关分析表明,施氮量和灌水量与间作玉米的穗粒数、千粒质量、穗粒质量、株高均呈极显著正相关,施氮量与间作小麦的穗粒质量、穗粒数呈极显著正相关。  相似文献