Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2017

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.  相似文献   

花生黄曲霉生长预测模型的研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

房保海  王波  刘会梅  雷质文  张艺兵  门爱军  祝素珍  李正义  唐静 《山东农业科学》2011,(5):29-32

通过对分离自花生的黄曲霉LYYSS03-3在不同温度(15-35℃)、不同相对湿度(水活度分别为0.5,0.7,0.9)下的菌落生长特性进行检测,采用Boltzmann和Logistic 模型对黄曲霉的生长曲线进行拟合,结果表明,在适宜温湿度阶段,花生黄曲霉的生长曲线更适合用Boltzmann模型拟合.  相似文献   

基于高光谱特征参数的冬小麦氮营养指数估算     

王玉娜  李粉玲  李振发  吕书豪 《麦类作物学报》2023,(11):1475-1483

为了实现快速高精度获取冬小麦氮营养指数的高光谱监测技术，利用美国SVC HR-1024I型野外光谱辐射仪对2017-2019年关中地区的冬小麦进行遥感监测，获取“三边”参数、任意两波段光谱指数和植被指数，通过相关性分析和逐步回归分析方法筛选冬小麦氮营养指数的敏感光谱参数，结合偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、随机森林算法(RFR)、支持向量机回归(SVR)和梯度增强回归(GBDT)建立冬小麦氮营养指数模型，并对模型估算精度进行验证。结果表明，从拔节期到灌浆期，各时期的氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数均呈极显著相关，其中拔节期氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数相关性均高于其他时期，且基于一阶导数光谱的归一化光谱指数和比值光谱指数与氮营养指数的相关系数最大，为0.66。拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数预测模型的决定系数(r²)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.96和0.05,模型验证的r²、RMSE和相对预测偏差(RPD)分别为0.95、0.12和2.12,模型预测精度最高。因此，拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数估算模型可用于冬小麦氮营养监测...  相似文献   

基于SWAT模型的大安市降水入渗量变化的模拟研究     

马海燕  刘洪超  孙晓庆 《吉林农业大学学报》2016,(3)

针对近年的研究热点,通过SWAT模型对半干旱、盐碱化严重的吉林省大安市进行降水入渗模拟。以2000、2004和2008年遥感影像解译得到的土地利用数据为基础,结合SWAT模型的模拟结果,讨论LUCC与降水入渗量的相关关系。2008年与2000年相比,难利用地的面积有所降低,旱地、草地等发生了大面积的增加,研究区内土地状况有所好转。通过SWAT模型运行得到的结果显示:2008年的平均降水入渗量为56.27 mm,比2000年的值高。利用降水入渗系数法进行计算,也得到了2008年的降水入渗量高于2000年的结果,这与SWAT模型模拟得到的结果有着相同的趋势,且平均降水入渗量的标准偏差为5.27,说明SWAT模型对于研究区有良好的适应性。同时,根据土地利用数据和SWAT模型模拟数据可以得知,LUCC对研究区的降水入渗量存在着一定的相关性。  相似文献   

A conceptual model of farmers' decision-making process for nitrogen fertilization and irrigation of durum wheat     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2016

With a 2 millions of tons production, France is the second country in the European Union to produce durum wheat. Durum wheat production requires high grain nitrogen concentration. Irrigation and nitrogen fertilization must be managed simultaneously to maximize grain yield and also avoid low protein concentration and environmental impacts. To help advisors and farmers to better manage together these two agricultural operations and to develop innovative managements, developing a biodecisional model is an interesting possibility. However, knowledge is still missing on how farmers already managed these operations and how these two operations are linked. We developed the conceptual model for the decision part of this computer model. We performed a survey of 28 farmers conducted over the five French production areas investigating a diversity of growing conditions to identify the set of possible constraints and farmers' decision rules. To analyze the survey, we first used a general inductive approach on individual cases and then built a conceptual model of the decision with a bottom-up approach. We identified four decision sequences for fertilization (N splitting, choice of N fertilizer, rate of application, fertilization triggering) and five for irrigation (irrigation period, anticipated number of irrigation cycles, irrigation cycles organization, irrigation triggering and irrigation cycle specificities). For each operation, the first three decision sequences refer to strategic decisions. The other decision sequences refer to tactical decisions. Coupling this model with a crop model could provide guidelines for managing durum wheat in the current climatic and economic changing context.  相似文献   

基于B-S模型的环保项目投资评价     

韦宁  韩帅奇  马城楠  王宗良  张亚旭  江馨 《安徽农业科学》2016,(8):254-256

以ABC公司环保产品开发为例,针对传统项目投资评价在环保项目上的缺点,分析了将实物期权理论运用到环保项目投资评价中的可行性,并运用B-S模型进行定量分析,以期为环保项目投资提供一个新的思路,同时也使环保项目决策变得更加合理。  相似文献   

Polymorphic mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) in a coastal riverscape: size class assemblages,distribution, and habitat associations          下载免费PDF全文

James C. Starr  Christian E. Torgersen 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2015,24(4):505-518

We compared the assemblage structure, spatial distributions, and habitat associations of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) morphotypes and size classes. We hypothesised that morphotypes would have different spatial distributions and would be associated with different habitat features based on feeding behaviour and diet. Spatially continuous sampling was conducted over a broad extent (29 km) in the Calawah River, WA (USA). Whitefish were enumerated via snorkelling in three size classes: small (10–29 cm), medium (30–49 cm), and large (≥50 cm). We identified morphotypes based on head and snout morphology: a pinocchio form that had an elongated snout and a normal form with a blunted snout. Large size classes of both morphotypes were distributed downstream of small and medium size classes, and normal whitefish were distributed downstream of pinocchio whitefish. Ordination of whitefish assemblages with nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed that normal whitefish size classes were associated with higher gradient and depth, whereas pinocchio whitefish size classes were positively associated with pool area, distance upstream, and depth. Reach‐scale generalised additive models indicated that normal whitefish relative density was associated with larger substrate size in downstream reaches (R² = 0.64), and pinocchio whitefish were associated with greater stream depth in the reaches farther upstream (R² = 0.87). These results suggest broad‐scale spatial segregation (1–10 km), particularly between larger and more phenotypically extreme individuals. These results provide the first perspective on spatial distributions and habitat relationships of polymorphic mountain whitefish.  相似文献   

AM80-0.2Sr-1.5Ca镁合金高温压缩过程动态再结晶模拟     

李落星  何凤亿  刘筱  周佳 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,38(12):46-51

在Gleeble-1500热压缩实验机上对AM80-0.2Sr-1.5Ca镁合金进行高温压缩实验，得到了该合金在温度为300~450 ℃、应变速率为0.01~1 s-1条件下的流变应力曲线.结合改进的Laasraoui-Jonas（L-J）位错密度模型和Kock-Mecking（K-M）位错密度模型，获得AM80-0.2Sr-1.5Ca镁合金在改进的L-J位错密度模型中的应变硬化参数和应变软化参数，建立该合金的动态再结晶模型.利用DEFORM-3D软件，实现了对AM80-0.2Sr-1.5Ca镁合金在450 ℃热压缩实验时微观组织演变和位错密度变化过程的有限元模拟，并与实际热压缩实验微观组织进行对比.研究结果表明：在相同的温度和应变量下，应变速率较低时，AM80-0.2Sr-1.5Ca镁合金组织粗大且晶粒分布不均，随着应变速率增大，再结晶组织细小均匀模拟与实验结果一致，说明求解的应变硬化参数和应变软化参数准确，所建立的动态再结晶模型能准确预测该合金高温压缩过程动态再结晶过程.  相似文献   

Contrasting development of soil microbial community structure under no-tilled perennial and tilled cropping during early pedogenesis of a Mollisol     

《Soil biology & biochemistry》2014

A range of agricultural practices influence soil microbial communities, such as tillage and organic C inputs, however such effects are largely unknown at the initial stage of soil formation. Using an eight-year field experiment established on exposed parent material (PM) of a Mollisol, our objectives were to: (1) to determine the effects of field management and soil depth on soil microbial community structure; (2) to elucidate shifts in microbial community structure in relation to PM, compared to an arable Mollisol (MO) without organic amendment; and (3) to identify the controlling factors of such changes in microbial community structure. The treatments included two no-tilled soils supporting perennial crops, and four tilled soils under the same cropping system, with or without chemical fertilization and crop residue amendment. Principal component (PC) analysis of phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) profiles demonstrated that microbial community structures were affected by tillage and/or organic and inorganic inputs via PC1 and by land use and/or soil depth via PC2. All the field treatments were separated by PM into two groups via PC1, the tilled and the no-tilled soils, with the tilled soils more developed towards MO. The tilled soils were separated with respect to MO via PC1 associated with the differences in mineral fertilization and the quality of organic amendments, with the soils without organic amendment being more similar to MO. The separations via PC1 were principally driven by bacteria and associated with soil pH and soil C, N and P. The separations via PC2 were driven by fungi, actinomycetes and Gram (−) bacteria, and associated with soil bulk density. The separations via both PC1 and PC2 were associated with soil aggregate stability and exchangeable K, indicating the effects of weathering and soil aggregation. The results suggest that in spite of the importance of mineral fertilization and organic amendments, tillage and land-use type play a significant role in determining the nature of the development of associated soil microbial community structures at the initial stages of soil formation.  相似文献   

论网络时代的会计环境与挑战     

段晨燕 《湖南农机》2015,(3):87-88

从网络会计的角度对当前我国会计模式的不足进行一定程度地剖析，比较传统模式与网络模式对会计影响的不同以及会计未来发展环境的探索等。  相似文献