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Sarah J. Converse Kevin J. Shelley Steve Morey Jeffrey Chan Andrea LaTier Carolyn Scafidi Deborah T. Crouse Michael C. Runge 《Biological conservation》2011,(1):319-329
The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal consultations (those where expected effects are significant), 82% of projects would be placed in a long bin, with an average time investment of 15 days. The WFWO is using this decision-support tool to help allocate staff time. Because workload allocation decisions are iterative, we describe a monitoring plan designed to increase the tool’s efficacy over time. This work has general application beyond Section Seven consultation, in that it provides a framework for efficient investment of staff time in conservation when such time is limited and when regulatory deadlines prevent an unconstrained approach. 相似文献
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基于知识模型和生长模型的作物管理智能决策系统是一个综合了多领域的作物信息和专家知识,集成了多方面相关支持技术的决策系统。因此,如何设计好系统中的各功能模块,使其便于非系统开发者对其精华部分的学习和理解,同时又能即插即用,利于系统的维护,是系统成功与否的关键。以小麦作物为例,论述基于软构件技术的作物管理智能决策系统设计中软件平台的选用、系统的构件化结构设计与实现过程以及数组在接口上的传递等关键技术,从而为农业管理决策系统的开发提供一种构件化的基础框架。 相似文献
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模拟退火法在汪清林业局森林可持续经营决策中的应用研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
以异龄林为对象,应用模拟退火法,探讨了确定林分水平上异龄林最佳可持续经营决策的方法,以期为我国森林可持续经营的生产实践提供参考。 相似文献
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Kazu Takeno Keiichiro Nishimura James Parmentier Toshio Narahashi 《Pesticide biochemistry and physiology》1977,7(5):486-499
The sciatic nerve-sartorius muscle preparation from the frog, the nerve-muscle preparation from the crayfish, and the abdominal nerve cord preparation from the crayfish have been compared for their sensitivity to various insecticides. The crayfish nerve cord was the most sensitive to insecticides and had a broad spectrum of sensitivity. A method was developed with this preparation to compare a large number of synthetic pyrethroids for their potencies to stimulate and block the nerve which is the primary target site. Both stimulating and blocking actions on the nerve can be assessed with this preparation. Certain pyrethroids are active insecticidally despite their weak nerve action, whereas some other pyrethroids are relatively moderate in killing insects despite their potent nerve action. Thus the new method can be effectively used to establish the true structure-activity relationship of synthetic pyrethroids or any other insecticides acting directly on the nerve. 相似文献