The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km2) in the area (HR1000 pigs 1.48) and herd size (HR100 pigs = 1.01).
Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements. 相似文献
Data of the 1997–1998 epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands were analysed in survival analysis to identify risk factors that were associated with the rate of neighbourhood infections. The study population consisted of herds within 1000 m of exclusively one previously infected herd. Dates of virus introduction into herds were drawn randomly from estimated probability distributions per herd of possible weeks of virus introduction. (To confirm the insensitivity of the results for this random data-selection procedure, the procedure was repeated 9 times (resulting in 10 different datasets).) The dataset had 906 non-infected and 59 infected neighbour herds, which were distributed over 215 different neighbourhoods. Neighbour herds that never became infected were right-censored at the last date of the infectious period of the infected source herd. Neighbour herds that became empty within the infectious period or within the following 21 days due to preventive depopulation or due to the implemented buying-out programme were right-censored 21 days before the moment of becoming empty. This was done as a correction for the time a herd could be infected without being noticed as such.
The median time to identified infection of neighbour herds was 2 weeks, whereas the median time to right censoring of non-infected neighbour herds was 3 weeks. The risk factors, radial distance ≤500 m, cattle present on source herd and increasing herd size of the neighbour herd were associated multivariably with the hazard for neighbour herds to become infected. We did not find an association between time down wind and infection risk for neighbour herds. Radial dispersion of CSFV seemed more important in neighbourhood infections than dispersion along the road on which the infected source herd is situated. The results of this study support the strategy of preventive depopulation in the neighbourhood of an infected herd. Recommendations are presented to adapt the applied control strategy for neighbourhood infections. 相似文献
A study was carried out to determine the possibility of a more-closed farming system for (Dutch) dairy farms. The objective of the study was to provide effective and economically profitable management advice for improving the animal-health status of farms. Management measures will only be successfully applied if supported by farmers and their advisors (such as veterinarians). Therefore, the perception of farmers and advisors of the importance of various risk factors for the introduction of diseases to a farm was determined by using bovine herpes virus type 1 (BHV1) as an example.
As part of the study, an evening-long workshop was organized and run thrice. In total, 49 farmers, veterinarians and AI technicians participated in these workshops. The computerized questionnaire technique was based on adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA). ACA has the advantage that participants can work with a large number of risk factors in a relatively short period of time. Another advantage of ACA (compared with standard questionnaires) is that the answers from each participant can be checked with regard to consistency with respect to the importance assigned to them. Data from participants with inconsistent responses can be excluded from further analyses. The results of the ACA interview were compared with the risk factors reported in the literature as being associated with BHV1 status (e.g. purchase of cattle, participation in cattle shows) and with farmers' actual management to prevent the introduction of diseases.
The workshop participants were all operating in the dairy sector and they seemed well aware of the risk of direct animal contacts for the introduction of BHV1. Farmers thought visitors to be more risky than did AI technicians and (especially) veterinarians. Farmers who purchased cattle or participated in cattle shows were of the opinion that the risks of direct animal contacts were more important than did farmers who were not involved in those practices. Farmers whose farms were BHV1-positive (and participated in cattle shows more often) thought the risk of participation smaller than did farmers with BHV1-negative farms. 相似文献
There is a growing recognition that urban trees provide various valuable benefits and services such as enhanced human wellbeing. However, they also have a cost in terms of public health either directly (allergies) or by harboring species representing health risk for humans. This paper focuses on such a forest insect species, the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa. Its caterpillars develop gregariously during winter in a conspicuous silk nest in coniferous hosts. When disturbed, the larvae release urticating hairs that cause human or animal serious health problems. The purpose of our survey was to (1) inventory all individual trees belonging to potential host species and estimate the density of T. pityocampa (2) assess the spatial pattern of the insect population at the city scale. We conducted an exhaustive inventory of potential coniferous host trees in five municipalities (ca. 5000 ha) in the north of Orléans, France. Each tree was identified, geo-referenced and the number of moth nests it hosted was counted. A total of 9321 urban trees representing 11 coniferous taxonomic units were investigated. The distribution of T. pityocampa exhibited a marked spatial structure citywide. Geostatistics allowed to draw risk maps revealing strong patchiness. We provide the first estimate of T. pityocampa host tree preference in an urban context and found that Pinus nigra, P. pinaster and P. sylvestris were the most attacked trees. We also report numerous cases of T. pityocampa occurrence on the exotic ornamental Himalayan cedar Cedrus deodara. The management implications of our findings are two-fold: (1) risk maps constitute a useful framework for communication and public information, and can help developing control strategies; (2) some species frequently used for ornamental purposes are poor quality hosts regarding T. pityocampa and should therefore be preferred in public place usually frequented by vulnerable people (schools, nurseries, hospitals). 相似文献
Healthy and sustainable tree populations require a high diversity of genera and species. This study examined the occurrence and contents of tree inventories in Denmark's 30 largest municipalities. 59% of the municipalities had a tree inventory for street trees, but only about half of these were complete and updated. Only one municipality had a registration for trees other than street trees. Based on data from the tree inventories, the diversity of road side trees was analyzed at genus level and species level. A total of 82,072 street trees are part of the study. 11 different genera account for 92% of the total street tree stock, and 2–6 genera account for 40–80% of the street tree stock in the individual municipalities. Tilia was the most dominating genera (26%). 12 species account for 73% of the total street tree stock. The 6 most common species account for almost 50% of the total tree population. The species representing the largest numbers were Tilia × europaea (12%), Acer platanoides (10.9%), Platanus × acerifolia (7.2%), Tilia cordata (7.2%), Fraxinus excelsior (6.2%) and Sorbus intermedia (5.9%). The four most urbanized municipalities had a surplus of non-native species, but all municipalities apart from one had most street trees belonging to native species. The concluding recommendation of this study is that tree managers need to start working more strategic with their tree stock, in order to reduce the vulnerability, due to potential attacks from pests or diseases and climate change effects. A risk spreading system for the urban tree population is proposed, suggesting that no genera should account for more than 10% and no species for more than 5% of the tree population. 相似文献
A set of hypotheses was formulated on the basis of available knowledge about non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners' risk preferences. The empirical material used for testing the hypotheses was gathered in telephone interviews with 130 randomly selected NIPF owners. The results confirm that direct economic risks such as price and cost changes are seen by this group as much more important than indirect economic risks such as biological damage. The forest owners regarded forest holdings as a safer investment than stocks or bank savings. The results on risk attitudes were ambiguous. However, when larger amounts of money were at stake, the forest owners could be considered risk averters and a decrease in absolute and relative risk aversion could be confirmed. 相似文献
