基于贝叶斯向量自回归的区域经济预测模型：以青海为例     

王飞 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,(2):95-100

十七年文学出于对革命意识形态的绝对捍卫，对土匪的想象缺少了民国时期作品的丰富性，其匪类叙事反映了主流意识形态对于文学匪色想象的绝对控制和规训。然而传统英雄侠义观的根深蒂固以及古典英雄传奇叙事模式的影响使匪色想象逸出意识形态的控制，塑造了新的类型形象——具有匪性气质的革命英雄人物。同时在十七年文学中还存在一个异数——那就是诗人郭小川的叙事长诗《一个和八个》，它体现了逸出秩序之外的个性化匪色想象，也使诗人因此受到严厉的政治批判。  相似文献   

近期我国稻谷(米)供求趋势分析及发展预测与对策   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

施能浦 《中国稻米》2015,(1):1-5

本文分析了20年来我国水稻生产、消费和贸易的变化,认为只有"保红线(即保种植面积3 000万hm2,稻谷总产2亿t)攻单产"才能保证我国稻谷95%以上的自给率。并预测了2030年我国稻谷的供求趋势,认为只要确保种植面积年增长率达0.4%、总产年增长率达1.0%,供求关系将趋平衡,并略有节余。为确保我国中期稻谷生产与消费趋于合理区间,提出了"六保"发展措施。  相似文献   

粮食生产潜力短期预测的“趋势-波动模型”的验证     

米长虹  刘书田  郑宏艳  李敬亚  黄治平  侯彦林  王农  蔡彦明  王铄今  侯显达 《农业环境与发展》2016,(2):194-200

应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对粮食生产潜力短期预测的"趋势-波动模型"进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果表明:(1)预测误差大小反映短期生产潜力的预测精度,预测误差大的主要原因是经济发达地区高产农田被大量占用和(或)蔬菜、水果种植面积大幅度增加而短期内使粮食单产下降;(2)小趋势修正方法是"趋势-波动模型"中不可缺少的一部分,它能将大趋势预测不能包括的短期如气象因素、科技投入、社会因素等影响纳入预测中,提高预测精度;(3)就我国近些年来的实际情况而言,越是经济发达的地区短期生产潜力的波动越大;同样发达地区短期潜力存在增加-下降-回升阶段;(4)就短期生产潜力预测精度而言:国家级大于省级、省级大于地区级、地区级大于县级;不同省、不同地区、不同县之间预测精度差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关。  相似文献   

基于Lasso和支持向量机的组合预测及其应用     

喻胜华  龚尚花 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2016,(2):46-49

针对Lasso方法与支持向量机两者的联系与各自的优势，给出了基于Lasso与支持向量机的串联型、并联型和嵌入型三种组合预测，并将它们运用到我国粮食价格预测中.实证结果表明，与单一预测方法的预测结果相比，基于Lasso方法与支持向量机的串联型组合预测和嵌入型组合预测具有更高的预测精度.  相似文献   

Association between porpoise presence and fish choruses: implications for feeding strategies and ecosystem-based conservation of the East Asian finless porpoise     

Zhaolong CHENG  Yongtao LI  Matthew Keith PINE  Tao ZUO  Mingxiang NIU  Jun WANG 《Integrative zoology》2023,18(1):169-182

The associations between feeding activities and environmental variables inform animal feeding tactics that maximize energetic gains by minimizing energy costs while maximizing feeding success. Relevant studies in aquatic animals, particularly marine mammals, are scarce due to difficulties in the observation of feeding behaviors in aquatic environments. This data scarcity concurrently hinders ecosystem-based fishery management in the context of small toothed-cetacean conservation. In the present study, a passive acoustic monitoring station was deployed in an East Asian finless porpoise habitat in Laizhou Bay to investigate potential relationships between East Asian finless porpoises and their prey. The data revealed that porpoises were acoustically present nearly every day during the survey period. Porpoise detection rates differed between spring and autumn in concert with activities of fish choruses. During spring, fish choruses were present throughout the afternoon, and this was the time when porpoise vocalizations were the most frequently detected. During autumn, when fish choruses were absent, porpoise detection rates decreased, and diurnal patterns were not detected. The close association between fish choruses and finless porpoise activities implies an “eavesdropping” feeding strategy to maximize energetic gains, similar to other toothed cetaceans that are known to engage similar feeding strategies. Underwater noise pollution, particularly those masking fish choruses, could interrupt finless porpoises’ feeding success. Fisheries competing soniferous fishes with finless porpoise could impact finless porpoise viability through ecosystem disruption, in addition to fishing gear entanglement.  相似文献   

河北省玉米产量灰色理论分析与预测     

张文英栗秋生  栗雨勤 《华北农学报》2007,22(B08):160-162

为了解河北省玉米产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论的GM（1,1）模型,依据1980-2003年河北省审定的玉米品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为：^X（k＋1）^（1）=324 818.583 945e^0.018524-318 652.083 945。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省玉米生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学依据。预测结果表明,在挖掘耕地资源和非耕地资源的生产潜力,提高农业资源综合生产能力的情况下,河北省的玉米产量将在2030年有可能达到15 052.6 kg/hm^2。  相似文献   

Regression Applied in Continuous Mathematical Forecast     

CAI Zhang-li  SHI Wei-ren  DIAO Ling 《保鲜与加工》2005,(10):91-93

Data Mining can distill the connotative, unknown and potential value information or pattern from many data. It is a problem that must be settled during the developing of Decision Support System how to discover knowledge from Data Warehouse. In order to realize the continuous mathematical forecast that will be used in the Marketing Decision Support System for Industrial Enterprise, the authors use the method of regression to discuss how to design the algorithm for Data Mining, how to design the model for Data Mining, and so on. When the algorithm applied to the sales forecast, the result processing to simulation data indicates it can realize the expected effect.  相似文献   

Determination to Weighting Coefficient of Combination Forecast Based on Rough Set Theory   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHONG Bo  XIAO Zhi  ZHOU Jia -qi 《保鲜与加工》2002,(7):127-130

The problem of determination to weighting coefficient is a key and difficulty for combination forecast. A method of determining weighting coefficient based on rough set theory is showed in this paper. Determining weighting coefficient is translated into estimating significance of attributes among rough set. A relation data model about combination forecast is established. Knowledge systems are built through making attribute value into eigenvalue. Under data moving, the weighting coefficients of a combination forecast model are computed by analyzing the dependence and significance of forecasting method for the predicted object. The proposed approach overcomes the subjectivity of traditional determination to weighting coefficient, avoids computing linear or nonlinear extremum problem and makes combination forecast more objective. The validity of the proposed approach is verified with a case.  相似文献   

Simulation of High Pressure Startu Poil Pum Pof Turbine     

ZHOU Li-jun  TANG Sheng-li 《保鲜与加工》2006,(11):66-68

Dynamic mathematical model, which is based on the character of the 200 MW tubine lbricating oil system, is established by means of modularization. On the basis of dynamic mathematical models, simulation model of the startu Pprocess of hign pressure startu Poil pum Pis created with the Visual Fortran language. The validity of this model has been verified by the simulation experiments and analysis. The simulation helps to forecast the dynamic characteristic to high pressure startu Poil pum Pand have some directive significance to design method of lubricating oil system.  相似文献   

地理信息系统在环境影响评价中的应用   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

蓝家万  栗苏文  宋强  李兰 《中国农村水利水电》2003,(2):75-76

为了研究地理信息系统（GIS）在环境影响评价中的应用，在介绍地理信息系统的组成、类型、功能和应用领域的基础上，分析了GIS技术在环境影响评价中的优势，并结合实例，探讨了地理信息系统在水环境影响评价中的具体应用过程。  相似文献