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Seasonal variations in individual contacts give rise to a complex interplay between host demography and pathogen transmission. This is particularly true for wild populations, which highly depend on their natural habitat. These seasonal cycles induce variations in pathogen transmission. The seasonality of these biological processes should therefore be considered to better represent and predict pathogen spread. In this study, we sought to better understand how the seasonality of both the demography and social contacts of a mountain ungulate population impacts the spread of a pestivirus within, and the dynamics of, this population. We propose a mathematical model to represent this complex biological system. The pestivirus can be transmitted both horizontally through direct contact and vertically in utero. Vertical transmission leads to abortion or to the birth of persistently infected animals with a short life expectancy. Horizontal transmission involves a complex dynamics because of seasonal variations in contact among sexes and age classes. We performed a sensitivity analysis that identified transmission rates and disease-related mortality as key parameters. We then used data from a long-term demographic and epidemiological survey of the studied population to estimate these mostly unknown epidemiological parameters. Our model adequately represents the system dynamics, observations and model predictions showing similar seasonal patterns. We show that the virus has a significant impact on population dynamics, and that persistently infected animals play a major role in the epidemic dynamics. Modeling the seasonal dynamics allowed us to obtain realistic prediction and to identify key parameters of transmission.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-015-0218-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献2.
Garel Makouanzi Gilles Chaix Sophie Nourissier Philippe Vigneron 《Southern Forests》2018,80(2):151-158
Thirty-four Eucalyptus urophylla × Eucalyptus grandis hybrids were evaluated with a view to selecting for improved growth and wood-quality traits for plantations in the Congo. Height, circumference at breast height and volume were measured at 12, 27, 37, 49 and 60 months. Lignin content, the syringyl/guaiacyl ratio and total extractives content were predicted by near-infrared spectroscopy using wood powder samples collected from trees at breast height. While wood chemical properties were stable and under strong genetic control, growth traits were not. The genetic correlation between lignin content and growth was weak and negative, whereas the environmental correlation was also weak but positive. The genetic improvement of E. urophylla × E. grandis clones, based on growth features, leads to a limited decrease in lignin content and syringyl content and to a limited increase in extractives content. 相似文献
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An alternative rotational stocking management designed to favour butterflies in permanent grasslands
A. Farruggia B. Dumont A. Scohier T. Leroy P. Pradel J.‐P. Garel 《Grass and Forage Science》2012,67(1):136-149
Grassland butterflies are on the decline throughout Europe. We tested an ‘alternative rotational stocking’ (ARS) strategy based on theoretical and practical aspects of grassland ecology, designed to increase butterfly diversity while also meeting farmers’ production objectives. This management strategy implies taking animals away from one subplot of the rotation during the main flowering period. Its feasibility and benefits on butterfly diversity were tested by comparing ARS with continuous stocking (CS) in plots grazed by cattle at the same stocking rate: high in 2005 and 2006 then lenient in 2007 and 2008. At the high stocking rate, butterfly abundance (21·9 vs. 8·3, P < 0·01) and butterfly species richness (7·4 vs. 3·7, P < 0·001) were significantly higher in ARS than in CS plots, matching the increase in pasture flowering intensity and sward structural diversity. ARS was led according to the pre‐planned schedule in 2005, but in 2006, the number of heifer grazing days in ARS was reduced by 19% because of unfavourable spring grass growth. At the lenient stocking rate, ARS was less beneficial for butterflies (abundance: 17·4 vs. 13·0, P < 0·10; species richness: 5·9 vs. 5·2, P = 0·35) but would present less risk for farmers in terms of providing livestock with sufficient forage. Alternative rotational stocking thus has potential to be integrated into grassland‐based systems, but would require earlier grazing on the excluded subplot of the rotation in the event of unfavourable grass growth during spring. 相似文献
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Elodie Portanier Jeremy Larroque Mathieu Garel Pascal Marchand Daniel Maillard Gilles Bourgoin Sébastien Devillard 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(7):1069-1085
Context
In natural populations, gene flow often represents a key factor in determining and maintaining genetic diversity. In a worldwide context of habitat fragmentation, assessing the relative contribution of landscape features to gene flow thus appears crucial for sustainable management of species.Objective
We addressed this issue in Mediterranean mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon?×?Ovis sp.) by combining previous knowledge on behavioral ecology with landscape genetics. We also assessed how sex-specific behavioral differences translated in term of functional connectivity in both sexes.Methods
We relied on 239 individuals genotyped at 16 microsatellite markers. We applied a model optimization approach in a causal modeling framework of landscape genetics to test for the effects on gene flow of habitat types and linear landscape features previously identified as important for movements and habitat selection in both sexes. Five resistance values were alternately assigned to these landscape characteristics leading to a comprehensive set of resistance surfaces.Results
Isolation by resistance shaped female gene flow, supporting the central role of linear landscape features as behavioral barriers for animal movements. Conversely, no isolation by resistance was detected in males. Although a lack of statistical power cannot be discarded to explain this result, it tended to confirm that males are less influenced by landscape structures during the mating period.Conclusions
Combining previous knowledge on behavioral ecology with results from landscape genetics was decisive in assessing functional landscape connectivity in both sexes. These results highlighted the need to perform sex-specific studies for management and conservation of dimorphic species.5.
B. Dumont A. Farruggia J.‐P. Garel P. Bachelard E. Boitier M. Frain 《Grass and Forage Science》2009,64(1):92-105
The effect of stocking rate on the species richness, abundance and functional diversity of vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers was examined in a semi‐natural upland pasture in central France. Over a 5‐year period, 3·6‐ha plots were continuously grazed by Charolais heifers at 1·4 (High stocking rate), 1·0 (Intermediate) and 0·6 (Low) livestock units (LU) ha?1. To evaluate botanical diversity, percentage cover of all plant species was estimated in late July in ten fixed 1 m × 1 m quadrats per plot. Butterflies were counted on three occasions between late June and early August along three fixed 50‐m‐long transects per plot using the ‘Pollard walk’, with grasshoppers being recorded on two occasions along the same transects. Diversity patterns of the three taxa were affected by stocking rate. For plants, species abundance changed more than species number. Abundance of forbs became higher under the Low compared with the High stocking rate. Stress‐tolerant grasses were also more abundant in plots grazed at the Low stocking rate, while an opposite trend was observed for competitive grasses. Butterflies consistently responded to alterations in vegetation composition, especially to the dynamics of nectar plants. The species richness of grasshoppers also increased in plots at the Low stocking rate. The Low and Intermediate stocking rates were suitable for providing a high diversity of the three taxonomic groups. The results suggested that at least butterfly diversity would peak in vegetation taller than that of vascular plants. 相似文献
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An improved hemagglutination (HA) test using the purified specific f2 antigen of Fasciola hepatica has been evaluated with regard to its potential use for the prediction of chemotherapeutic success in natural bovine infections with F. hepatica. Lactating cows (n = 16) from a herd naturally infected with F. hepatica were successively treated with nitroxynil (Dovenix, Specia) and with oxyclozanide (Zanil, ICI) 1 month later. Their f2-specific antibodies were significantly lower than those of a non-treated control group (n = 15) from the second month after the first treatment, and continued to decline thereafter to negative values 5-6 months post-treatment. In a second experiment, culled and fattened cows (n = 32) of unknown fasciolosis history were treated with closantel (Janssen Pharmaceutica). Three months after treatment, f2-specific antibodies of the serologically positive animals (n = 24) were reduced nine-fold. In contrast, in the control group (n = 28), the titers of f2-specific antibodies of the serologically positive animals (n = 21) were not modified significantly. The results show that the f2-HA test is useful for the prediction of chemotherapeutic success in bovine fascioliasis. 相似文献
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