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According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible.This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model.The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation.The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply.The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia.  相似文献   
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BACKGROUND: Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) size and morphology influence the selection of the kind and the size of the embolization device used to effect shunt closure. HYPOTHESIS: That echocardiographic measurement of PDA in dogs is accurate. ANIMALS: Forty-five client-owned dogs with PDA. METHODS: Prospective observational study. Echocardiographic and angiographic data were compared. RESULTS: Measurement of the ductus in color Doppler echocardiography (CD-E) and 2-dimensional echocardiography (2D-E) was achieved from left parasternal views in 43 of 45 unsedated dogs (96%). In these 43 dogs, the angiographic minimal PDA diameter was 3.72 +/- 1.59 mm, and the diameter of the PDA ampulla was 8.46 +/- 3.01 mm. The CD-E minimal PDA diameter ranged from 2.3 to 9.5 mm (median, 4.0 mm). There was a significant mean difference to the angiographic measurements (1.15 +/- 0.95 mm; P < .0001). An agreement in a 1-mm range was found in 21 of 43 dogs (48%). The 2D-E minimal PDA diameter was 3.73 +/- 1.78 mm, and the mean difference to the angiographic measurements was not significant (0.00 +/- 0.72 mm; P = .98). An agreement in a 1-mm range was found in 31 of 43 dogs (72%). The 2D-E measurement of the PDA ampulla revealed a significant mean difference to the angiographic data (1.95 +/- 2.43 mm, P < .0001). An agreement in a 2-mm range was found in 21 of 43 dogs (49%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: The 2D-E from the left cranial parasternal view is an excellent noninvasive method to estimate the PDA minimal diameter before doing catheter intervention.  相似文献   
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Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods.  相似文献   
5.
Arıkan  Bülent  Mohr  Franziska  Bürgi  Matthias 《Landscape Ecology》2021,36(8):2295-2315
Landscape Ecology - Landscape archaeology has a lot to offer to landscape ecology, being an interdisciplinary approach that emphasizes the study of long-term human–environment dynamics. We...  相似文献   
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Landscape Ecology - Landscape ecology early on developed the awareness that central objects of investigation are not stable over time and therefore the historical dimension must be included, or at...  相似文献   
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Biochar amendments to soils have been suggested as a strategy to sequester carbon and therefore mitigate global climate change. The enrichment of soils with charred materials also increases their fertility. This fertilising effect of biochar may be caused by various mechanisms; an acceleration of nutrient cycling has been suggested as one such mechanism. The rate-limiting step in nutrient cycling is thought to be the extracellular enzymatic attack on biological macromolecules. In this study, therefore, the effects of chestnut wood char (specific surface area 2.0 m2 g−1) and of activated carbon (specific surface area approximately 900 m2 g−1) on an extracellular enzymatic reaction involved in the degradation of cellulose (i.e., hydrolysis of cellobiose by β-glucosidase from Aspergillus niger) were investigated. Cellobiose was not adsorbed by chestnut wood char, whereas activated carbon absorbed more than 97% of it. Both charred materials adsorbed more than 99% of β-glucosidase. For chestnut wood char, adsorption of the enzyme caused a decrease of approximately 30% in the reaction rate, whereas for activated carbon, the nearly complete absorption of both substrate and enzyme entirely inhibited the reaction. These results show that β-glucosidase from A. niger retains most of its activity when adsorbed to chestnut wood char and that the reaction it catalyses in nature is only slightly affected by this charred material. On the other hand, a material characterised by a high specific surface area and high porosity, such as activated carbon, can make even a highly soluble substrate unavailable for soil enzymes and therefore completely inhibit the reaction. Thus, charred materials may affect nutrient cycling mainly by regulating the availability of substrates: the degradation of highly soluble substrates may be accelerated by materials with low specific surface area, which maintain an active and protected enzyme pool, whereas materials with high specific surface and high porosity may slow down the degradation by making substrates unavailable.  相似文献   
8.
Apples represent a major dietary source of antioxidative polyphenols. Their metabolic conversion by the gut microflora might generate products that protect the intestine against oxidative damage. We studied the antioxidant effectiveness of supernatants of fermented apple juice extracts (F-AEs, 6 and 24 h fermentation) and of selected phenolic degradation products, identified by HPLC-DAD-ESI-MS. Cell free antioxidant capacity of unfermented apple juice extracts (AEs) was decreased after fermentation by 30-50%. In the human colon carcinoma cell line Caco-2, F-AEs (containing <0.5% of original AE-phenolics) decreased the reactive oxygen species (ROS) level more efficiently than the F-blank (fermented without AE) but were less effective than the respective AEs. Similarly, antioxidant effectiveness of individual degradation products was lower compared to respective AE constituents. Glutathione level was slightly increased and oxidative DNA damage slightly decreased by fermented AE03, rich in quercetin glycosides. In conclusion, F-AEs/degradation products exhibit antioxidant activity in colon cells but to a lesser extent than the respective unfermented AEs/constituents.  相似文献   
9.

Context

Human–nature interactions are reflected in the values people assign to landscapes. These values shape our understanding and actions as landscape co-creators, and need to be taken into account to achieve an integrated management of the landscape that involves civil society.

Objectives

The aim of this research was to increase the current knowledge on the most and least common landscape values perceived by local stakeholders, the patterns in the spatial distribution of values, and their connection to different socio-economic backgrounds and landscape characteristics across Europe.

Methods

The research consisted of a cross-site comparison study on how landscape values are perceived in six areas of Europe using Public Participation GIS surveys. Answers were analysed combining contingency tables, spatial autocorrelation and bivariate correlation methods, kernel densities, land cover ratios, and viewshed analyses. Results were discussed in the light of findings derived from other European participatory mapping studies.

Results

We identified shared patterns in the perception of landscape values across Europe. Recreation, aesthetics, and social fulfilment were the most common values. Landscape values showed common spatial patterns mainly related to accessibility and the presence of water, settlements, and cultural heritage. However, respondents in each study site had their own preferences connected to the intrinsic characteristics of the local landscape and culture.

Conclusions

The results encourage land planners and researchers to approach landscape values in relation to socio-cultural and bio-physical land characteristics comprehensibly, acknowledging the complexity in the relationship between people’s perception and the landscape, to foster more effective and inclusive landscape management strategies.
  相似文献   
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