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This paper reports the outcomes of a deliberative workshop comparing land-use plans proposed by land-manager or domain experts with those derived using a computer-based decision support system (DSS). The DSS integrates four main components, a geographic information system, land-use systems simulation models, impact assessments and land-use planning tools. The land-use planning tools draw on the other components to generate and evaluate alternative patterns of land use and management. Since the land-use planning tools are based on multi-objective genetic algorithms (mGAs) it is possible to generate a range of alternative plans that define the structure of the trade-off between the objectives. The workshop tasked the delegates with specifying land-use plans that achieved the best compromise between two objectives known to be non-commensurable and conflicting. The nature of the best compromise was dependent on their individual perspectives. The delegates proposed allocations both as individuals and in researcher-facilitated sub-groups. The mGA allocations were then compared with those derived by delegates and were found to be broadly similar in performance. Differences in the range of allocations considered feasible were explained by the hard and soft constraints on allocations agreed between the delegates and articulated within the workshop process. The hypothesis that part of the difference in performance between the mGA and delegate allocations was due to the delegates blocking together fields with the same land use for convenience of management was proved. The analysis of the group allocations revealed that the decision-making process had failed to improve on the individual allocations. From these results it was concluded that there was a potential role for mGA based land-use planning tools in researching into, and deliberating on, the possible impacts of policy or other factors affecting land-use systems. It was further concluded that the tools should not be used in isolation since there was the need for stake-holder inputs to adequately define the range of feasible and practical land-use plans.  相似文献   
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This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.  相似文献   
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Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.
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Glycogen synthase kinase 3beta (GSK3beta) is involved in metabolism, neurodegeneration, and cancer. Inhibition of GSK3beta activity is the primary mechanism that regulates this widely expressed active kinase. Although the protein kinase Akt inhibits GSK3beta by phosphorylation at the N terminus, preventing Akt-mediated phosphorylation does not affect the cell-survival pathway activated through the GSK3beta substrate beta-catenin. Here, we show that p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) also inactivates GSK3beta by direct phosphorylation at its C terminus, and this inactivation can lead to an accumulation of beta-catenin. p38 MAPK-mediated phosphorylation of GSK3beta occurs primarily in the brain and thymocytes. Activation of beta-catenin-mediated signaling through GSK3beta inhibition provides a potential mechanism for p38 MAPK-mediated survival in specific tissues.  相似文献   
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An experiment was carried out in which a pilot-scale treatment of a bulk of grain with chlorpyrifos-methyl was compared with a laboratory treatment of 1 kilogram of grain with 14C-radio-labelled chlorpyrifos-methyl. The conditions under which the grain was maintained in the laboratory resembled those of the pilot-scale treatment as closely as possible, with sampling and analysis being carried out at the same time and in a similar manner in both. The results from the two experiments were in general agreement with approximately 60% of the chlorpyrifos-methyl remaining intact at the end. A satisfactory level of insect control was achieved in the pilot-scale treatment although it was not possible to assess efficacy in the radiochemical experiment. The use of the radio-label enabled more information about the fate of the degraded insecticide to be obtained from the laboratory experiment. The majority of this radioactivity comprised a fraction which remained within the grain tissue after solvent extraction. The level of activity in the grain tissues gradually increased with time but its nature is as yet unknown. The good agreement obtained between the residue profile and the breakdown patterns in both experiments would suggest that such a laboratory-scale experiment can be a satisfactory model for the situation obtaining in a larger-scale treatment.  相似文献   
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An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of dietary betaine (0, 0.125, 0.250, or 0.500%) on growth, carcass traits, pork quality, plasma metabolites, and tissue betaine concentrations of cross-bred finishing pigs. Four replications of three pigs (two barrows and one gilt) each were used for each treatment. The basal diet contained 0.85 (69 to 88 kg BW) or 0.65% Lys (88 to 115 kg BW). Overall ADG and gain:feed were not affected (P > 0.10) by betaine, but overall ADFI was decreased (quadratic, P < 0.05; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.01) by betaine; pigs fed 0.250% betaine had the lowest ADFI. Loin muscle area, average back-fat, dressing percentage, percentage lean, total fat, lean:fat, and leaf fat weight were not affected (P > 0.10) by betaine. Tenth-rib backfat thickness was decreased (quadratic, P < 0.05; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.05); pigs fed 0.250% betaine had the lowest 10th-rib backfat thickness. Carcass length was increased (linear, P < 0.05; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.10) as the level of betaine was increased. Fat-free lean, lean gain per day, ham weight, ham fat-free lean, and ham percentage lean were increased (quadratic, P < 0.10), but percentage fat, total ham fat, percentage ham fat, and butt-fat thickness were decreased (quadratic, P < 0.10); these traits were respectively highest or lowest in pigs fed 0.250% betaine. Thaw loss and 24-h pH were increased (quadratic, P < 0.10; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.05) and cook loss was decreased (linear, P < 0.05) in pigs fed betaine. The CIE L* value for the biceps femoris was decreased (quadratic, P < 0.10; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.10); pigs fed 0.250% betaine had the lowest CIE L* value. Subjective color, firmness-wetness, marbling, percentage moisture and bound water of the loin muscle, and shear force were not affected (P > 0.10) by betaine. Betaine was not detectable (< 0.07 mg/g) in the loin muscle of pigs fed 0% betaine, but betaine was detectable and relatively constant in pigs fed 0.125, 0.250, or 0.500% betaine (0.22, 0.17, and 0.21 mg/g, respectively). Plasma urea N, total protein, albumin, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol concentrations were not affected (P > 0.10). Plasma total cholesterol (linear, P < 0.10) and NEFA (quadratic, P < 0.10) were increased in pigs fed betaine. Betaine improved carcass traits when provided at 0.250% of the diet and improved some aspects of pork quality.  相似文献   
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