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Greiner M Müller-Graf C Hiller P Schrader C Gervelmeyer A Ellerbroek L Appel B 《Berliner und Münchener tier?rztliche Wochenschrift》2007,120(3-4):98-107
According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible.This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model.The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation.The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply.The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia. 相似文献
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Schneider M Hildebrandt N Schweigl T Wehner M 《Journal of veterinary internal medicine / American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine》2007,21(2):251-257
BACKGROUND: Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) size and morphology influence the selection of the kind and the size of the embolization device used to effect shunt closure. HYPOTHESIS: That echocardiographic measurement of PDA in dogs is accurate. ANIMALS: Forty-five client-owned dogs with PDA. METHODS: Prospective observational study. Echocardiographic and angiographic data were compared. RESULTS: Measurement of the ductus in color Doppler echocardiography (CD-E) and 2-dimensional echocardiography (2D-E) was achieved from left parasternal views in 43 of 45 unsedated dogs (96%). In these 43 dogs, the angiographic minimal PDA diameter was 3.72 +/- 1.59 mm, and the diameter of the PDA ampulla was 8.46 +/- 3.01 mm. The CD-E minimal PDA diameter ranged from 2.3 to 9.5 mm (median, 4.0 mm). There was a significant mean difference to the angiographic measurements (1.15 +/- 0.95 mm; P < .0001). An agreement in a 1-mm range was found in 21 of 43 dogs (48%). The 2D-E minimal PDA diameter was 3.73 +/- 1.78 mm, and the mean difference to the angiographic measurements was not significant (0.00 +/- 0.72 mm; P = .98). An agreement in a 1-mm range was found in 31 of 43 dogs (72%). The 2D-E measurement of the PDA ampulla revealed a significant mean difference to the angiographic data (1.95 +/- 2.43 mm, P < .0001). An agreement in a 2-mm range was found in 21 of 43 dogs (49%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: The 2D-E from the left cranial parasternal view is an excellent noninvasive method to estimate the PDA minimal diameter before doing catheter intervention. 相似文献
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Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods. 相似文献
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Landscape Ecology - Landscape archaeology has a lot to offer to landscape ecology, being an interdisciplinary approach that emphasizes the study of long-term human–environment dynamics. We... 相似文献
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Tappeiner Ulrike Leitinger Georg Zariņa Anita Bürgi Matthias 《Landscape Ecology》2021,36(8):2317-2328
Landscape Ecology - Landscape ecology early on developed the awareness that central objects of investigation are not stable over time and therefore the historical dimension must be included, or at... 相似文献
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RR Moura ES Lopes‐Junior DIA Teixeira IA Serova LE Andreeva LM Melo VJF Freitas 《Reproduction in domestic animals》2010,45(5):e101-e106
The objective of this study was to examine the effect of donor breed on pronuclear‐stage embryo yield to be used for DNA microinjection in a transgenesis goat program. Twelve Canindé and twelve Saanen goats were heat synchronized using a progestagen‐cloprostenol treatment. Forty‐eight hours before the sponge removal, superovulation was induced with a total administration of 4.4 mg/kg bodyweight NIH‐FSH‐P1, given twice daily in decreasing doses over 3 days. In addition, goats received 100 μg of GnRH and they were hand‐mated at 36 and 48 h after progestagen removal. Embryo recovery was performed by oviduct flushing at 72 h after sponge removal. Embryos were microinjected with a DNA construct and noticeable swelling of the nuclei was the criterion for successful microinjection. The total diameter, cytoplasm diameter, zona pellucida thickness and pronuclei diameter were measured for each microinjected embryo. A higher (p < 0.05) percentage of fertilized ova was observed in Canindé (89.9%) than Saanen (36.2%) goats. In addition, Canindé donors produced a higher percentage of pronuclear embryos when compared with Saanen: 72.5% vs 20.6% (p < 0.05), respectively. Successful microinjection was verified in 96.7% and 73.3% of times in Canindé and Saanen embryos, respectively (p < 0.05). Significant differences were observed for all morphometric parameters except for cytoplasm diameter. In conclusion, under our study experimental conditions, Canindé were more efficient than Saanen goats concerning the pronuclear embryo yield and manipulation. The use of Canindé goats in transgenesis programs could be increase the interest in their breeding and could be contribute to saving them from extinction. 相似文献
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A case study of forest change in the Swiss lowlands 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper presents a regional case study of forest development and the history of forest use and management in the north-eastern lowlands of Switzerland during the 19th and 20th centuries. The analysis draws on historical documents related to forestry to consider the following aspects of forest change: forest types, growing stock, trees species composition and non-timber forest uses. Based on the data presented, three overlapping periods of forest use and management can be discerned. The period of traditional multiple use lasted until the second half of the 19th century. From the mid 19th to the mid 20th century, a period of primacy of timber production occurred. During the 20th century, the period of modern multi-impact management has developed. For these three periods, groups of main actors, their needs and interests, and how they were causing the changes in the aspects under study were defined. This procedure of defining periods and the respective groups of main actors is a critical link between landscape ecology and history, as changes in demands of the society can be directly linked with changes in land-use and land-cover. 相似文献
10.
Baroni E Matthias RR Marcellin-Little DJ Vezzoni A Stebbins ME 《American journal of veterinary research》2003,64(5):586-589
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy of 2 radiographic methods used to assess tibial plateau slope (TPS) in dogs and evaluate effects of film digitization and radiographic beam placement on TPS measurements. SAMPLE POPULATION: 16 hind limbs from dog cadavers weighing > 20 kg. PROCEDURES: Radiographs of tibiae were made with the radiographic beam centered over the stifle joint and midshaft of the tibia. Tibiae were collected, the femorotibial contact area was determined, and slope of the medial tibial condyle in relation to the tibial shaft was measured. Radiographs were digitized. Slope of the medial tibial condyle was measured on printed and digitized radiographs read in random order by 6 examiners unaware of anatomic measurements. Three examiners used a conventional measuring technique, and 3 examiners used an alternative measuring technique. RESULTS: Anatomic measurements were significantly higher than radiographic measurements made by use of the conventional interpretation method but did not differ from radiographic measurements made by use of the alternate method. Measurements from printed radiographs were lower than measurements from digitized radiographs for the 4 most experienced examiners. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Measurements made by use of a line tangential to the cranial, linear portion of the medial tibial condyle at the femorotibial contact point were accurate measurements of the anatomic TPS. Measurements made by use of the conventional TPS measurement method underestimated the anatomic TPS. Measurements made on digitized radiographs were typically more accurate than measurements made on printed radiographs. 相似文献